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☆ Wall St Week Ahead U.S. stock rally faces gauntlet of CPI data, Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The index has bounced about 10% from its October lows but remains down more than 17% on the year. Equities’ trajectory in the near future may depend on whether Tuesday’s consumer price index report shows inflation is responding to the most aggressive Fed hiking cycle since the 1980s. Hotter-than-expected data could bolster fears of more Fed hawkishness, pressuring stocks. A second helping of benign data could bolster the case for a peak in inflation and buoy equities further. Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile, investors are factoring in a half-percentage-point rate hike from the Fed next week, a step down from its recent series of three-quarter-point increases.

☆ Analysts think these November winners can rally further — and give 2 more than 160% upside
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Zavier Ong | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The stock is buy rated by about 70% of analysts covering it, who give it average upside of 164.3%. Meanwhile, shares in Warren Buffett-backed BYD were up just 9% in November, but analysts think the stock could rally 68.4% looking ahead. Tech stocks A slew of Chinese tech stocks made the screen too, including Alibaba and Tencent . Analysts are bullish on Alibaba, with 89% of analysts holding a buy rating on the stock and giving it average upside of 39%. Andrew Maynard, head of equities at investment bank China Renaissance, believes Chinese Big Tech stocks such as Alibaba and Tencent are "incredibly cheap."

The global macro, policy and political mix dynamic has never been more uncertain, and standard economic and market models based on mean reversion and historical precedence have rarely been less useful. It is against this backdrop that Saxo Bank and Standard Chartered have released their extremely-out-of-consensus 'Outrageous Predictions' and 'Market Surprises of 2023' forecasts, respectively. Given the political, economic and financial market turmoil of the past 12 months, none of these scenarios over the next 12 could be completely ruled out. chartWALL, MEET MUDLet's take a few of these predictions, starting with Standard Chartered's yuan and euro calls. Deutsche Bank's baseline 2023 economic outlook even has euro zone growth outpacing U.S. growth next year.

☆ Sam Bankman-Fried's Alameda Research shielded FTX from a loss of up to $1 billion after a customer trade blew up a year before the exchange collapsed, report says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Alameda Research in 2021 stepped in to shelter FTX from a loss of up to $1 billion, the FT reported Friday. An FTX client's leveraged bet on a little-known token tore through buffers aimed at shielding FTX from losses. The April 2021 incident highlights the deep ties between Sam Bankman-Fried's companies. The April 2021 incident took place more than a year before FTX collapsed last month following a run on the exchange. The ties between the exchange and the hedge fund are at the center of the implosion of FTX, with allegations that FTX had lent customer funds to Alameda for trading.

☆ These are the best-performing stocks over the last 10 Decembers, and analysts love them
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

December is typically a strong month for stocks, and there are several good opportunities in the index for investors looking to get ahead. That makes it the third-best month on average for the broader market index over that time period. Here are the 15 stocks: Casino stock Caesars Entertainment stands out as the stock with the highest median gain at 8.7%. Payments technology provider Global Payments, a financial stock, is also on the list with a 1% median gain from the last 10 Decembers. The stock has buy ratings from 80% of analysts covering them.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Stocks typically rally in December, investors have some caution this year
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

September, meanwhile, is the worst month of average for stocks, with a 0.7% average decline. Gains would be welcomed by many investors after seeing the S&P 500 Index (.SPX) fall around 16% so far this year. Still, weighing on the market has been the U.S. Federal Reserve's actions to aggressively tighten interest rates to fight inflation. The average Santa rally has boosted the S&P 500 by 1.3% since 1969, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. The painful double-digit declines in both U.S. stocks and bonds, meanwhile, have made both asset classes more attractive for long-term investors, said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab.

SINGAPORE, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Oil prices extended declines on Thursday as concerns over geopolitical tensions eased, while rising numbers of COVID-19 cases in China added to demand worries in the world's largest crude importer. Brent crude futures fell by $1.04, or 1.1%, to $91.82 a barrel by 0430 GMT. On Wednesday Brent dropped by 1.1% and WTI 1.5% after Russian oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary restarted. "Crude oil fell after NATO cleared Russia's missile attack on Poland, while demand concerns (are) back to trader's focus amid ongoing China's COVID curbs and gloomy global economic outlooks," said Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC Markets. Sustained concerns about weak demand in China are also "keeping markets grounded," said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.

☆ Oil falls as geopolitical tensions ease, China COVID concerns return
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Emily Chow | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 65 cents, or 0.8%, to $84.94 a barrel. Brent dropped by 1.1% and WTI declined by 1.5% on Wednesday after Russian oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary restarted. "Crude oil fell after NATO cleared Russia's missile attack on Poland, while demand concerns (are) back to trader's focus amid ongoing China's COVID curbs and gloomy global economic outlooks," said Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC Markets. Oil prices eased despite a larger-than-expected draw in crude oil stockpiles in the United States, added Teng. read moreSustained concerns of demand weakness in China are also "keeping markets grounded," said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, as it continues to report more COVID cases in major cities.

☆ Analysis: Political gridlock may help U.S. stocks but inflation still in driver's seat
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A split government "makes major policy changes unlikely, and that stability in policy tends to be reassuring for investors." Still, macroeconomic concerns and monetary policy have driven markets all year, and investors believe that trend is unlikely to change anytime soon. "Inflation matters more than anything else right now," said Michael Antonelli, managing director and market strategist at Baird. In the last five instances when the November-December period occurred in a bear market, the S&P 500 logged an average two-month decline of 2.2%. If you look at bear markets there is no evidence of seasonality at the end of the year," Antonelli said.

☆ Oil falls as geopolitical tensions ease, China Covid concerns return
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices fell for a second day in early Asian trade on Thursday as concerns over geopolitical tensions eased and rising numbers of Covid-19 cases in China added to demand worries in the world's largest crude importer. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 65 cents, or 0.8%, to $84.94 a barrel. Brent dropped by 1.1% and WTI declined by 1.5% on Wednesday after Russian oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary restarted. "Crude oil fell after NATO cleared Russia's missile attack on Poland, while demand concerns (are) back to trader's focus amid ongoing China's Covid curbs and gloomy global economic outlooks," said Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC Markets. Oil prices eased despite a larger-than-expected draw in crude oil stockpiles in the United States, added Teng.

☆ Financial markets not showing too much stress, even as the crypto complex gets dismantled
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. But the point is, stocks have not been oblivious to slowdown risk to this point. Part of this is because energy firms are nicely profitable even at $75-$85 crude and are the rare group showing earnings growth. So far, the financial markets have not shown particular stress over the crypto unwind. Almost no movement in VIX, with modest index moves, expiration often pinning indexes in a narrow band and holiday-slowed trading ahead next week.

☆ Apple is key to determining whether the stock market can sustain a rally into year-end, Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The sustainability of a year-end rally in the stock market hinges on Apple, according to Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton. "A breakout would likely foster a greater relief rally given Apple's influence on the major indices and sentiment," Stockton said. With the stock market on the verge of entering its best performing period on a seasonal basis, a continued relief rally is on the table. "Apple may hold clues as to the strength of the relief rally," Stockton said. "A breakout would likely foster a greater relief rally given Apple's influence on the major indices and sentiment," Stockton said.

☆ Oil prices dip 1% on China demand worries, U.S. midterm elections
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Companies Diamondback Energy Inc FollowNov 8 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged 1% lower on Tuesday on growing worries about fuel demand as COVID-19 outbreaks worsened in top crude importer China, and jitters about the outcome of U.S. Brent futures for January delivery fell $1.14 to $96.78 a barrel, a 1.2% loss, by 13:02 p.m. EST (18:02 GMT). It's a wait to see what the result is type of a situation here," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York. The ICE exchange, home to the Brent benchmark, has increased the initial margin rates for front-month Brent crude futures by 4.92%, making maintaining a futures position more expensive from the close of business on Tuesday. U.S. crude oil stocks were expected to have risen by about 1.1 million barrels last week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

☆ The Dow is following a short-term positive trading pattern surrounding midterms
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The Dow has climbed in the run-up to Tuesday's midterm elections, fitting into a historical pattern of bullish trading every four years. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, the Dow has consistently risen before and after midterm elections for nearly 90 years. "An impressive 2.8% has been the average gain during the eight trading days surrounding midterm election days since 1934. This is equivalent to roughly 966 Dow points per day at present levels," the Almanac says. It is unclear why the historical trends are strong for midterm elections in particular.

☆ The election could be a big tailwind for stocks heading into the end of the year
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The average annual return of the S & P 500 in the 12 months before a midterm election since 1962 is 0.3%, "significantly lower than the historical average of 8.1%," US Bancorp said in a recent note. In the 12-month period after a midterm election, the S & P is up an average of 16.3%. The outperformance was especially notable in the period three months and six months after the election, when the S & P was up 7.3% and 15.1% on average. Most attribute the reason for underperformance to policy uncertainty — investors do not know which political party will hold a majority in Congress, which resolves after the midterm election. The S & P was higher 88.9% of the time.

☆ Here's a way to juice your returns to play the seasonally strongest six months of the year
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

How you play it could make a difference to your returns, according to CFRA. The rule of thumb, popularized in the Stock Trader's Almanac, is that November through April are the strongest six months in any given year for the S & P 500 . The average price gains from equal exposure to these sectors was 9%, compared with 6.7% for all of the S & P 500, Stovall pointed out. Since 1992, the S & P 500 gained an average 15.2% in November through April of those years. Investors can also get exposure through individual sector ETFs, such as the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund , the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund , the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund and the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund .

☆ This is a new bull market that could rally further in November, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks' surprising strength in the face of Big Tech's disappointing earnings could signal the start of a new bull market, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. Since 1950, the S & P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have averaged a gain of at least 0.9% in each of the next three months, according to the almanac. The Dow, S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have all fallen into bear markets this year, defined as being 20% or more below their recent highs. S & P 500 and NASDAQ have not. Further gains will be needed to truly confirm a new bull market," the note said.

☆ Analysis: Recession fears threaten perfect track record of post-midterm U.S. stock gains
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - A potential recession could end a streak of gains for U.S. stocks that has followed every midterm election since World War Two. Since 1946, the S&P 500 (.SPX) has climbed 19 out of 19 times in the 12-month period after midterm elections, according to data from Deutsche Bank. The vote helps clarify the policy outlook regardless of the result because the make-up of Congress is known. November and December rank as the second- and third-best performing months of the year since 1950, with average S&P 500 gains of 1.7% and 1.5%, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. Meanwhile, the current inflationary environment makes post-midterm fiscal stimulus less likely, another factor that could limit stock gains.

☆ Microsoft set to report earnings after the bell
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Jordan Novet | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Microsoft will report fiscal first-quarter results after market close on Tuesday. Here's what analysts are expecting:Earnings: $2.30 per share, adjusted, as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. $2.30 per share, adjusted, as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Analysts are looking for $49.61 billion in revenue from Microsoft in the fiscal first quarter, which ended on Sept. 30. That would represent 9.5% revenue growth year over year, which would be the slowest growth since 2017.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with NorthmanTrader's Sven Henrich
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with NorthmanTrader's Sven HenrichSven Henrich, NorthmanTrader founder and lead market strategist, joins 'TechCheck' to discuss Microsoft's recent stock performance, the broader Nasdaq's recent performance and his argument for today's market.

☆ Microsoft could rally hard with market, says NorthmanTrader's Henrich
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMicrosoft could rally hard with market, says NorthmanTrader's HenrichSven Henrich, NorthmanTrader founder and lead market strategist, joins 'TechCheck' to discuss Microsoft's recent stock movement, the broader Nasdaq's recent performance and his argument for today's market.

☆ Handicapping whether the stock market is at a turning point after Thursday's upside reversal
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-15 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

We can at least run through what we know about this market and how market cycles tend to unfold more generally. Fewer individual S & P 500 stocks made a new 52-week low than in mid-June even as the index itself undercut the June low, a modest positive glimmer. The prior extreme lows on this chart were near noteworthy market lows, if not always right at them. The Stock Trader's Almanac notes that of the 23 S & P 500 bear markets since World War II, seven ended in October. The S & P 500 has failed in four tries of since late August even to get above the short-term 20-day moving average, most recently on Friday.

☆ October's wild trading could give way to a new stock rally, as earnings roll out in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

But Emanuel sees the chance for a 17% to 20% rally in the S & P 500. The S & P 500 was down about 0.9% for the week, as of Friday afternoon, and it was hovering just above 3,600. S & P 500 earnings are expected to grow by 3.6% for the third quarter, based on actual reports and estimates, according to Refinitiv. Without the boost from more than doubling profits from energy companies, S & P earnings would decline by 3.1%. Week ahead calendar Monday Earnings: Bank of America , Bank of NY Mellon, Charles Schwab 8:30 a.m.

☆ October is living up to its reputation as a crazy month in which bear markets bottom
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

However, this month has also seen the end of more bear markets than any other. Data from the Stock Trader's Almanac shows that, of the 23 S & P 500 bear markets since World War II, seven ended in October, more than any other month. The majority of Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite bear markets have also ended in October. What's more, there are some signs that the end of this bear market could be near. Indeed, many of the headwinds hurting the stock market aren't going away anytime soon.

☆ 'The best buying opportunity': Why now is a good time to invest, according to a stock market historian
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Ryan Ermey | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

If you've looked at your portfolio lately, 2022 may not seem like a "sweet spot" for much of anything. But a "sweet spot" is exactly what Jeffrey Hirsch, a market historian and publisher of the Stock Trader's Alamanac, says investors can take advantage of now. Hirsch sees the market's decline in the first three quarters of 2022 not as a negative but as a potential entry point for investors. That's because since 1946, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 28.2% over the next five quarters after sinking for the first three of a calendar year, with no losses, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. "We think the market is setting up for the best buying opportunity of the 4-Year Cycle," Hirsch recently wrote on his website.

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