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☆ ASIA Inflation appetizer served before central bank main course
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Wall Street's major averages continued to push higher, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq ending up well over 1%. The monthly U.S. consumer price index report is expected to show the country's inflation rate slowing from 4.9% annually to 4.1%. CPI has been a fixation for markets after it soared to 40-year highs last year, prompting aggressive monetary tightening. On Monday, data showed India's annual retail inflation cooled to a more than two-year low of 4.25% in May as cost pressures on food eased, moving closer to the Reserve Bank of India's target of 4%. The Fed is part of a generous helping of central bank meetings this week, with the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan also on tap.

Persons: Lewis Krauskopf, Deepa Babington Organizations: Japan's Nikkei, CPI, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank, European Central Bank and Bank of, Brent, U.S, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Lewis, U.S, Australia, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, Japan

Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the overall consumer price basket, moderated to 2.91% in May against 3.84% in April. "Food inflation benefited from a sequential fall in the prices of fruits and oils," said Suvodeep Rakshit, economist at Kotak Institutional Equities. Core inflation, which had been easing after being a key concerns for months, remained below 6% for a third consecutive month. According to two economists' estimates, core inflation was 5.02% in May, compared with 5.2% in April. The Indian government does not release figures of core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices.

Persons: Suvodeep Rakshit, Devendra Kumar Pant, Nikunj Ohri, Aftab Ahmed, Andrew Heavens Organizations: Reserve Bank of India's, Reuters, El, Thomson Locations: DELHI, Asia, India

☆ Rupee seen higher on dollar slump as data backs Fed rate pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, June 9 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is poised to open higher on Friday, tracking losses on the dollar after a jump in U.S. jobless claims made it more likely that the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising rates next week. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 82.44-82.46 to the U.S. dollar compared with 82.5625 in the previous session. "The data further support market expectation for a pause by the U.S. Fed at its next meeting," OCBC Treasury Research said in a note. The odds of a Fed rate hike at the June 13-14 meeting is now at 1-in-4. 7** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $18.1mln worth of Indian bonds on Jun.

Persons: Nimesh Vora, Nivedita Organizations: Federal, U.S, Reserve Bank of, Fed, Research, Brent, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, U.S, Asia

☆ India's central bank isn't letting its guard down, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIndia's central bank isn't letting its guard down, economist saysSonal Varma of Nomura discusses the outlook for the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy and says it's monitoring factors such as El Nino and a potential rise in oil prices. She adds that an interest rate hike is unlikely.

Persons: Sonal Varma, Nomura Organizations: Reserve Bank, El Nino

Cranes unload shipping containers from a vessel at the Port of Fremantle in Perth, Australia, on Monday, Aug. 26, 2013. Asia-Pacific markets are set to fall as Wall Street saw a pause in its market rally and the broad market index fluctuated near its highest closing levels since August 2022. China's exports fell further than than expected and Australia's central bank defied market expectations by delivering a 25 basis-point hike. South Korea's Kospi inched down 0.23% in early trade, while the Kosdaq saw a larger loss at 0.43%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is also set to fall after a brief rally on Wednesday, with futures at 19,116 compared to the HSI's close of 19,252.

Organizations: Port, Nikkei, Reuters, Bank of Locations: Fremantle, Perth, Australia, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Bank of India

Despite hitting an 18-month low of 4.70% in April, analysts do not expect India's inflation to fall to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 4% medium-term target in a sustainable manner for some time. India has raised rates by 250 basis points (bps) since May 2022, but surprised analysts in April by keeping them unchanged. India's hold on rates contrasts with recent central bank actions elsewhere. "Our goal is to achieve the inflation target of 4% and keeping inflation within the comfort band of 2-6% is not enough," Das said. Das said that the central bank would remain "nimble" with its liquidity operations amid spikes in overnight rates despite surplus liquidity in the banking system.

Persons: Shaktikanta Das, OIS, Das, Michael Patra, Suvodeep Rakshit, Gaura Sen Gupta, Swati Bhat, Sudipto Ganguly, Ira Dugal, Krishna N, Sam Holmes, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Reserve Bank of India's, MPC, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, IDFC, Thomson Locations: Delhi, India, Anushree, MUMBAI

☆ India's currency in circulation falls further post RBI currency withdrawal move
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Dharamraj Dhutia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Currency in circulation was down by 272.8 billion rupees ($3.30 billion) for week ended June 2, data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on late Wednesday showed. It was down by 364.9 billion rupees in the week ended May 26. On May 19, the RBI had said it will start withdrawing 2,000-rupee denominated notes from circulation. People holding those notes were to deposit them in their respective bank accounts or exchange them for smaller denominations between May 23 and September 30. "It can be safely assumed that the banking system liquidity would increase by one trillion rupees to two trillion rupees gradually over the next few months," said Sandeep Bagla, chief executive officer at Trust Mutual Fund.

Persons: Sandeep Bagla, Dharamraj Dhutia, Nivedita Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Trust Mutual Fund, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI

☆ About 80% of Indians choose to deposit withdrawn 2000-rupee notes, boost bank deposits - bankers
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Siddhi Nayak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, June 7 (Reuters) - About three-fourths of Indians are choosing to deposit the recently withdrawn 2000-rupee notes into bank accounts so far rather than exchanging them for smaller denominations, with the trend likely to boost bank deposits, bankers said. In May, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said it would withdraw these high-value notes from circulation and permitted their exchange or deposit until Sept. 30. When announced, the value of these notes in circulation was 3.6 trillion rupees ($43.61 billion), the RBI said. Though the total quantum of notes deposited or exchanged so far is not available, six public and private sector bankers Reuters spoke to said over 80% of the notes received by them have been deposited into accounts. The initial assumption is the overall bank deposit base would increase by at least 1.5 trillion rupees, with SBI contributing 22%-25%, the SBI official said.

Persons: Virat Diwanji, Gaura Sen Gupta, Dipanwita Mazumdar, Siddhi Nayak, Swati Bhat, Sonia Cheema Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, Reuters, State Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, Union Bank of India, Bank of India, Kotak Mahindra Bank, IDFC FIRST Bank, SBI, Siddhi, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, BOB.NS, India

☆ Indian shares open higher ahead of RBI rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

BENGALURU, June 7 (Reuters) - Indian shares opened higher on Wednesday, tracking global peers, ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision and on hopes of an interest rate pause by other major central banks. The blue-chip Nifty 50 (.NSEI) index was up 0.36% at 18,665.60 as of 9:15 a.m. IST, while the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex (.BSESN) rose 0.20% to 62,917.39. ($1 = 82.5316 Indian Rupees)Reporting by Bharath Rajeswaran in Bengaluru; Editing by Sonia CheemaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Bharath Rajeswaran, Sonia Cheema Organizations: Reserve Bank, BSE, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Bengaluru

The Bank of Canada's decision to raise rates to a 22-year high of 4.75% was not widely expected. This followed an equally surprising rate hike from Australia the day before, a one-two hawkish punch from policymakers that investors had probably not braced for. The Reserve Bank of India is expected to leave its key interest rate unchanged at 6.50% and for the rest of 2023, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The Australian dollar, which hit a one-month high on Wednesday following the RBA's rate hike, could get a nudge from Australian trade data on Thursday. Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:- India interest rate decision- Japan GDP (Q1, revised)- Australia trade (April)By Jamie McGeever;Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jamie McGeever Organizations: Nasdaq, Mega Tech, Reserve Bank of, U.S, Thomson, Reuters Locations: India, Canada, Australia, Reserve Bank of India, Japan

☆ India home prices set to stay above inflation: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary poll dataBENGALURU, June 5 (Reuters) - Home prices in India are set to hold above consumer inflation, even though interest rates are expected to stay higher for longer than previously thought, a Reuters poll of property analysts found. The May 16-June 1 poll of 12 property analysts predicted national home prices would reach a median 6.0% this year, a modest upgrade from the 5.5% expected in a March survey. "The interest rate cycle is near its end," Arvind Nandan, managing director of research at Savills India, said. Rates are set to stay at 6.50% for the rest of 2023 and start falling early next year. All analysts who answered an additional question said they were bullish about the housing market outlook.

Persons: Arvind Nandan, Anuj Puri, Rohan Sharma, Vivek Mishra, Veronica Khongwir, Madhumita Gokhale, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Reserve Bank of, JLL Research, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, India, Reserve Bank of India

Regional and global markets on Friday chalked up solid gains and volatility measures slumped after the release of forecast-smashing U.S. jobs figures. It looks like the 'sell in May and go away' maxim won't apply this year - investors are bullish and they are buying. Looking ahead, investors in Asia have plenty of economic events and monetary policy decisions to get their teeth into this week. Inflation data from Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan and China will be released, starting with Indonesia on Monday. Economists polled by Reuters expect annual CPI inflation eased in May to a one-year low of 4.22% from 4.33% in April.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Diane Craft Organizations: Nikkei, Manufacturing, U.S . State Department, Indonesia, Reuters, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of, Indonesia CPI, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, Japan, China, India, Australia, Korea's, Beijing, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan, Reserve Bank of India, Singapore

☆ India's forex reserves fall for second straight week
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

MUMBAI, June 2 (Reuters) - India's foreign exchange reserves (INFXR=ECI) fell for a second consecutive week and stood at a one-month low of $589.14 billion as of May 26, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) data showed on Friday. Reserves had fallen by $6.05 billion in the week ended May 19, the biggest fall in more than three months. Foreign exchange reserves include India's Reserve Tranche position in the International Monetary Fund. The rupee rose 0.1% in the week ended May 26, having traded in a range of 82.5575 to 82.8500. The rupee ended at 82.3050 on Friday to record its best week in five.

Persons: Siddhi Nayak, Savio D'Souza Organizations: Reserve Bank of India's, International Monetary Fund, Siddhi, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI

The government expects growth could remain around 6.5% in the current fiscal year, despite risks emerging from a global slowdown. Asia's third-largest economy expanded faster than the forecast of 5.0% by economists in a Reuters poll in the last quarter of the 2022/23 fiscal year through March, up from a revised 4.5% in the previous quarter. She added growth numbers, however, reflected optimism for the Indian economy despite global headwinds. Reuters GraphicsFederal government spending, constituting about 10% of GDP, rose 2.3% year-on-year in the latest quarter, compared with a revised 0.6% contraction in the previous quarter. Currently, 45% of India's workforce is employed in the farm sector, which contributes just 15% to the economy.

Persons: Anantha Nageswaran, Sakshi Gupta, Narendra Modi, Economists, Sarita Chaganti Singh, Shivangi Acharya, Nishit Navin, Emelia Sithole, David Holmes Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Federal, Monitoring, Thomson Locations: DELHI, India, HDFC, Mumbai, New Delhi, Bengaluru

MUMBAI, May 29 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India has come across instances of some banks trying to conceal the real status of their stressed assets while governance gaps have also been noticed at certain lenders, its governor said on Monday. Das also said that despite the guidelines on corporate governance, it was a matter of concern that the RBI has come across gaps in governance at certain banks, which have the potential to cause some volatility in the sector. "While these gaps have been mitigated, it is necessary that boards and the managements do not allow such gaps to creep in," he said. A robust governance structure is the most important requirement to ensure the stability of a bank and sustainable financial performance, Das added. "RBI has engaged with certain banks on the need to make suitable adjustments in their business strategies where it was observed that over-aggressive growth in certain business segments were creating avoidable vulnerabilities," Das said.

☆ Indian rupee poised to weaken after central bank pulls 2,000-rupee notes
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, May 22 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open weaker against the U.S. dollar after the central bank said it will withdraw the highest value currency note from circulation. Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open at around 82.80-82.84 to the dollar, compared to 82.66 in the previous session. On Friday, the Reserve Bank of India said it will withdraw its highest denomination 2,000-rupee note from circulation. "Rupee would come under pressure" alongside the fall in the cost of carry (the forward premiums), Goenka said. "Conducting sell/buy swaps (on USD/INR) would address cash dollar shortage and suck out rupee liquidity and could offer respite."

☆ India's note withdrawal to improve liquidity, ease short-term rates - analysts
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Siddhi Nayak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, May 22(Reuters) - The Indian central bank's decision to withdraw its highest denomination currency note from circulation is likely to improve banking system liquidity, bringing down recently elevated short term rates, analysts and bankers said. Kotak Institutional Equities estimates that liquidity could improve by around 1 trillion rupees, depending on the behaviour of depositors, while QuantEco Research pegs the potential liquidity impact at 400 billion rupees to 1.1 trillion rupees. ICICI Securities Primary Dealership estimates the liquidity surplus could increase to 1.5-2 trillion rupees. India's banking system liquidity surplus has averaged above 600 billion rupees in May. About 2.5-3 trillion rupees of banking sector liquidity leaks out as currency in circulation each year, wrote Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist at HSBC.

☆ We expect the Indian rupee to 'top out' in the short term, says Barclays
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe expect the Indian rupee to 'top out' in the short term, says BarclaysAshish Agrawal of the bank says the Reserve Bank of India has turned from buying to selling dollars.

☆ Explainer: What India's decision to scrap its 2000-rupee note means for its economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-20 | by ( Ira Dugal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MUMBAI, May 20 (Reuters) - India will withdraw its highest denomination currency note from circulation, the central bank said on Friday. WHY DID THE GOVERNMENT WITHDRAW 2000-RUPEE NOTES? When 2000-rupee notes were introduced in 2016 they were intended to replenish the Indian economy's currency in circulation quickly after demonetisation. However, the central bank has frequently said that it wants to reduce high value notes in circulation and had stopped printing 2000-rupee notes over the past four years. The value of 2000-rupee notes in circulation is 3.62 trillion Indian rupees ($44.27 billion).

☆ India to withdraw 2,000-rupee notes from circulation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

MUMBAI, May 19 (Reuters) - India will start withdrawing 2,000-rupee ($24.5) notes from circulation, its central bank said on Friday, adding that evidence showed the denomination was not being commonly used for transactions. The 2,000 rupee note was introduced in 2016 after the Narendra Modi-led government abruptly withdrew 500 and 1000 rupee notes to clamp down on forgeries. The government began issuing new 500 rupee notes days later, and added the 2,000 to replenish currency in circulation at a faster pace. However, since then, the central bank has focused on printing notes of 500 rupees and below and has printed no new 2,000-rupee notes in the last four years. "Withdrawal of a currency note is demonetisation and this is a sensible form of demonetisation," said Pronab Sen, economist and former chief statistician of India.

☆ Quantitative tightening: What happens when $2 trillion is sucked out of the global economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

“Quantitative tightening,” or QT, by top central banks will suck $2 trillion in liquidity out of the financial system over the next two years, according to a recent analysis by Fitch Ratings. Investors and banks calibrate their strategies to the amount of money in the financial system, he noted. Then, central banks started withdrawing liquidity from the financial system. Even worse, many banks have large holes on their balance sheets because central banks have simultaneously jacked up interest rates. While government debt levels have skyrocketed in recent years, the cost of servicing that debt has been tamped down by the willingness of central banks to buy large chunks of it.

☆ India's forex reserves edge towards $600 billion, hit near 1-year high
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Changes in forex reserves also stem from valuation gains or losses. For the week to which the forex reserves data pertains, the rupee fell by 0.4%, dragged down by a broader strength in the dollar index. The local unit had traded in a range of 81.6900 to 82.2250. The rupee fell further by 0.6% this week, its worst fall in two months. The local unit ended at 82.66 against the dollar on Friday.

The RBI's repo rate is at 6.50%. Banks met officials from the Fixed Income Money Market and Derivatives Association of India (FIMMDA) last week to raise the issue of persistently high overnight rates. FIMMDA and RBI officials did not respond to Reuters' emails seeking comment. Even as overnight rates stay elevated, treasury officials are not anticipating any infusion from the RBI as they expect liquidity conditions to improve in due course. That dividend transfer, according to traders, could top 1 trillion rupees ($12.23 billion), sharply above the budgeted 480 billion rupees.

☆ Indian rupee hits six-week low as weaker yuan dents Asian currencies
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Sethuraman N R | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

MUMBAI, May 17 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee hit a more-than-six-week low against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, in line with the decline in other Asian currencies that tracked the fall in the Chinese yuan after weak economic data. The rupee hit 82.4425 against the U.S. dollar, its lowest since April 3, during the session, before recovering to close up 0.21% at 82.38. The weak economic print from China has weighed on Asian currencies, said Dilip Parmar, research analyst at HDFC Securities. Parmar doesn't expect the Reserve Bank of India to intervene at the current levels as other Asian currencies have started depreciating and the dollar index is strengthening. Domestic economic data points like easing inflation and improved external currencies have mostly come in support of the local currency.

☆ Bullish view on Indian rupee thwarted by wall of cenbank intervention
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MUMBAI, May 15 (Reuters) - The bullish outlook on the Indian rupee that several foreign banks have is facing a tough test from the Reserve Bank of India's persistent intervention to shore up reserves. Barclays projected the rupee to hit 80 per dollar by next March, while BofA Securities expected a move to 79.5 by then. The rupee currently is down slightly from its March 31 level, at 82.34 to the dollar. There is little doubt that the RBI will persist with its two-way intervention strategy to keep a check on the rupee volatility, chief dealer at another public sector bank said. "Broadly, I agree with what the public sector banks are saying, that RBI reckons the need to continue intervention and build reserves," said Abheek Barua, chief economist at HDFC Bank.

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