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☆ Smaller-than-expected Turkey rate hike hits lira, bonds
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, June 22 (Reuters) - Turkey's new central bank governor Hafize Gaye Erkan delivered a smaller-than-expected interest rate hike at her first rate meeting on Thursday, sending the lira and the country's dollar-denominated sovereign bonds sharply lower. The bank lifted its key rate 650 basis points to 15% compared to the median of 21% expected in a Reuters poll. "On the other hand they are promising more tightening ahead... so you have to give them the benefit of the doubt." "I am more worried about the medium-term outlook which is likely to see further lira depreciation. TIM ASH, EM SENIOR SOVEREIGN STRATEGIST, BLUEBAY ASSET MANAGEMENT"Ouch - disappointing.

Persons: Hafize Gaye Erkan, PIOTR MATYS, Erkan, Erdogan, PETER KISLER, JON HARRISON, Amruta Khandekar, Ali Kucukgocmen, Marc Jones, Libby George, Karin Strohecker, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Thomson

That threw a new curveball at UK markets, as just last week economists polled by Reuters had unanimously expected the BoE to raise by 25 basis points. I would not be surprised if we see a 50-bp rate rise from the Bank of England tomorrow." Other analysts said delivering a larger rate rise on Thursday risked further undermining the BoE's messaging. Bets on where BoE rate hikes might peak rose as high as 6% on Wednesday. The rise in yields hit UK housebuilders (.FTNMX402020), which were down as much as 3.1%.

Persons: BoE, Melanie Baker, Liz, Nick Rees, Richard McGuire, Rabobank's McGuire, Yoruk Bahceli, William Schomberg, Dhara Ranasinghe, Danilo Masoni, Alun John, Peter Graff Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, Royal London Asset Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Wednesday's, MPC, FX, Monex, Rabobank, Sterling, Thomson Locations: Monex Europe

Asked if he thought the world was in a new Cold War, Kostin said that it was now a "hot war" that was more dangerous than the Cold War. VTB, Kostin said, was discussing using yuan in settlements with third countries. "We have already entered into a hot war," Kostin said of the crisis with Ukraine. The situation is worse than in the Cold War, it is very difficult and alarming." Asked if Russia's economy would remain a free economy, Kostin said: "I very much hope so."

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Andrei Kostin, Kostin, Vladimir Putin, Putin, VTB, Guy Faulconbridge, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, U.S ., European Union, Reuters, U.S, JPMorgan, VEB, EU, West ., Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Russian, China, MOSCOW, Russia, Ukraine, United States, Moscow, Australia, Britain, Soviet Union

"The risk of a downgrade is exacerbated every time Congress flirts with the debt ceiling," said Calvin Norris, Portfolio Manager & US Rates Strategist at Aegon Asset Management, who sees another downgrade as still a risk. Economic damage from the 2011 and 2013 debt ceiling battles had a chilling impact. Rating agency Fitch and other smaller agencies recently placed the U.S. credit rating under review. Reuters GraphicsCASCADE EFFECTInvestors use credit ratings as one of the metrics to assess the risk profiles of governments and companies. In the 2013 debt ceiling crisis the legislative standoff did not cause a rating downgrade, although Fitch placed its rating under review.

Persons: Kevin McCarthy, Joe Biden, Leah Millis, Calvin Norris, Wendy Edelberg, Edelberg, Fitch, William Foster, ”, Andy Sparks, Olivier d'Assier, Peter Crane, MSCI's Sparks, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Nick Zieminski Organizations: U.S, White, REUTERS, Senate, Republicans, Aegon Asset Management, AAA, Government, Office, The, Brookings Institution, Moody's, Moody’s Investors Service, Applied Research, Crane, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, United States, Washington, APAC, Qontigo

☆ Analysis: Struggling China local governments find a fundraising loophole, lifeline in "pearl bonds"
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

SHANGHAI/HONG KONG, May 31 (Reuters) - China's cash-strapped local governments have suddenly rushed to an unusual corner of the debt market in Shanghai where ambiguous rules offer ways to skirt restrictions on onshore borrowing. LGFVs accounted for about two-thirds of the issuers and 60% of the debt sold this year nation-wide, according to Reuters' calculations. Among all the newly-issued FTZ bonds this year, 55, or two-thirds of all 82 issuers, were LGFVs, according to Reuters' calculations. The "pearl" or free trade zone (FTZ) bonds have been around since 2016 but are only now becoming popular as tighter central government supervision on LGFV debts starts to bite. AMBIGUOUS POSITIONING"Pearl bonds" differ from other offshore bonds as trades are cleared by the state-owned China Central Depository & Clearing Co, rather than a global clearing house.

Persons: Shi Xiaoshan, Fitch, Royston Quek, Tim Fang, Pearl, Zhang Hong, Georgina Lee, Tom Westbrook, Kim Coghill Organizations: U.S, Haitong International Securities, China Central Depository, Industrial, Group, Credit Agricole CIB, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Bank of Communications, Pudong New, Financial, Reform Commission, Reuters, The, Administration of Foreign Exchange, Shanghai, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, HONG KONG, Shanghai, Beijing, U.S . Federal, Hong Kong, China, Zhejiang, Pudong, SINGAPORE

The easiest trade of the year is fizzling, and the lost momentum is keeping investors' money out. "I will not put any more money into stocks until all my losses are recovered," he said. Interviews with a dozen more small investors showed the sentiment to be reasonably widespread. Brokerage account creation, while volatile, likewise dropped off in April after promising momentum in February and March, China Securities Depository and Clearing data showed. "It is as if stocks are losing faith in the China recovery story," said Grow Investment Group chief economist Hong Hao.

☆ ECB’s crisis tool works best if it’s never used
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Rebecca Christie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

BRUSSELS, May 30 (Reuters Breakingviews) - In the euro zone bond market, unlimited backstops are the cheapest. The European Central Bank has been trumpeting its ability to buy member states’ debt if it comes under attack from investors. The danger here is that too much divergence would lead the euro zone to fracture, creating a powder keg for crisis. The central bank has been deliberately quiet about exactly when and how it might activate the crisis tool, except to say it will be ready if necessary. They have noted that the euro zone central bank has a new instrument to combat any sharp increase in the differential between yields of euro zone government bonds.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, –, Lagarde, Fabio Panetta, hasn’t, there’s, Nils Redeker, Berlin’s Jacques Delors, Philip Lane, Francesco Guerrera, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, ECB, Italy, Reuters Graphics Reuters, ECB won’t, Reuters Graphics, U.S . Federal, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, ”, European Union, Twitter, Thomson Locations: BRUSSELS, Frankfurt, Italy, Spain, Greece, Lithuania, Silicon, EU, Ukraine

The easiest trade of the year is fizzling, and the lost momentum is keeping investors' money out. Interviews with a dozen more small investors showed the sentiment to be reasonably widespread. Brokerage account creation, while volatile, likewise dropped off in April after promising momentum in February and March, China Securities Depository and Clearing data showed. "It is as if stocks are losing faith in the China recovery story," said Grow Investment Group chief economist Hong Hao. China's April industrial output and retail sales growth undershot forecasts as the recovery turned wobbly.

Persons: Eric Yu, Yi Huiman, Hong Hao, Wang Zaizheng, Chi Lo, Hayden Briscoe, Meng, Jason Xue, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: China Securities Regulatory, JPMorgan, China Securities Depository, Mutual, Grow Investment Group, Management, UBS Asset Management, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, China's, Shanghai, China, United States, Hong Kong, Asia, Pacific, Singapore

☆ China thesis lurches from one lazy extreme to next
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-25 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

HONG KONG, May 25 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Foreigners that once piled into offshore Chinese equities are evacuating as confidence in the country’s economic recovery sags. The China trade has always been unbalanced towards overseas-listed Chinese consumer and internet firms, and foreigners preferred building factories, acquiring large stakes in companies and the like over portfolio trading. Even at a peak in 2021, they held barely over 8 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) of yuan-denominated Chinese stocks and bonds, per official data, compared to $27 trillion of American equivalents. Now the former figure has fallen below 7 trillion yuan. Major Chinese indexes in Hong Kong and New York have also slid, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index having lost around 15% in the last three months.

LONDON, May 9 (Reuters) - Ecuador sealed the world's largest "debt-for-nature" swap on record on Tuesday, selling a new "blue bond" that will funnel at least $12 million a year into conservation of the Galapagos Islands, one of the world's most precious ecosystems. Tuesday's $656 million "Galapagos Bond," as it has been dubbed, will run until 2041 and gave investors that bought it a 5.645% "coupon" or interest rate, its bankers said. Ecuador sovereign bonds currently yield from 17% to 26%, but the new bond has an $85 million 'credit guarantee' from the Inter-American Development Bank and $656 million of political risk insurance from the U.S. International Development Finance Corp (DFC), effectively making it less risky. The driver has been the remote Galapagos Islands, some 600 miles (970 km) off Ecuador's mainland coast, that inspired Charles Darwin's Theory of Evolution. Scott Nathan, the chief executive of DFC, said people needed to "stay tuned" for similar deals in other countries and the Galapagos deal had been a long time coming.

☆ EU debt’s credibility problem is worsening
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Rebecca Christie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

BRUSSELS, May 9 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The European Union’s debt credibility is suffering from rising doubts, as well as rising rates. Relative to initial projections, EU borrowing costs are on course to go up by tens of billions of euros. Even so, as of Tuesday, two-year EU bonds were yielding 3.02% compared to 2.79% for France and 2.94% for Spain , with five-year EU bonds at 2.87% against 2.63% for France . EU debt trades as a supranational institution, not a country. Financially, the EU general budget will be able to manage the increase in debt costs using existing measures.

ECB chief Christine Lagarde said the central bank for the 20 countries that share the euro was not pausing. "This is a very restrictive policy and it will turn into credit tightening and that will bring a recession." The ECB has now increased its key deposit rate by some 375 bps since last July, from -0.5%. U.S. rates have jumped 500 bps, with the Federal Reserve hiking again on Wednesday while opening the door to a pause. Gareth Rudd, a European equity fund manager at Chelverton Asset Management, said he was negative on European bank stocks because regulators will want them to conserve capital instead of paying dividends.

LONDON, May 1 (Reuters) - Inflation in the euro area is too high for comfort, meaning markets expect the European Central Bank to deliver its seventh straight interest rate hike on Thursday. 1/ How much will the ECB hike rates by on Thursday? Most analysts expect at least one more rate move after Thursday, even as the Federal Reserve looks set to pause its rate hike campaign. Market pricing suggests ECB rates will peak around 3.6% this year, and Belgium's central bank governor Pierre Wunsch says he wouldn't be surprised to see rates rise to 4%. Tuesday's bank lending should offer some clues but it might be too early to gauge the full impact of the March banking crisis on financing conditions.

☆ BOJ’s new governor has relaxed debut
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

What once looked solely like temporary “cost-push” hikes engendered by volatile energy and food prices are starting to look more entrenched. Instead Ueda kept YCC in place and tweaked the forward guidance to remove reference to pandemic-related risks. The BOJ predicts inflation will fall back below 2% soon and plans a policy review over the next year or so. That suggests the BOJ is more worried about weak growth – it expects 1.4% this fiscal year - than inflation. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Digital “Chicago Plan” fixes many financial woes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The economists’ solution – often called the Chicago Plan – was to remove commercial banks from the money-creating business. One of the main problems of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) is that it would compete with old-fashioned bank deposits. With the digital money supply increasing in line with the economy’s potential growth, roughly as Friedman advised, inflation would soon come under control. Non-bank lenders like Apollo Global Management (APO.N) would have an enhanced role under the digital Chicago Plan. At present, there’s little chance of the digital Chicago Plan coming to pass.

Low and stable inflation is good for markets and the economy, so central banks had to show their seriousness on inflation, Tannenbaum added. Central banks softened rate rises with communication that was mindful of instability risks, showing reassuring "humility", said Perkins. "The bank resolution framework created after the great financial crisis," said Francesco Papadia, senior fellow at Bruegel and former ECB director general for market operations, "is proving difficult to implement." Reuters Graphics4/ UNITED WE STANDAfter CS's rescue, the Fed and other big central banks supported market liquidity with dollar swap lines. Amundi's Pradhan said the "case by case" central bank responses to individual lenders failing in March exposed the lack of a coordinated bank resolution system.

A showdown over U.S. government efforts to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling for the world's largest economy have sent jitters through global financial markets. JPMorgan said in a note published late Wednesday it expected the debt ceiling to become an issue as early as May, and that the debate over both the ceiling and the federal funding bill would run "dangerously close" to final deadlines. Yields on U.S. T-bills, the most sensitive to the debt ceiling debate, were again pushing higher as the deadline draws nearer. The debt ceiling is the maximum amount the U.S. government can borrow to meet its financial obligations. It can only pay Treasury bills (T-bills) through tax revenue.

☆ Space Force chief says U.S. is facing a 'new era' of threats beyond Earth
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Morgan Brennan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Chance Saltzman took the stage for his keynote at the Space Symposium in Colorado Springs, Colorado, this week, his message was simple: The U.S. is in a new era of space activity. "The threats that we face to our on-orbit capabilities from our strategic competitors has grown substantially," Saltzman, the U.S. Space Force's second-ever chief of space operations, said in a CNBC interview after the speech. Case in point: the Space Force's recently announced procurement strategy for more launch services. With business to be awarded next year, the National Security Space Launch Phase 3 is estimated to run into the billions of dollars and is expected to draw bids from the likes of Rocket Lab , Relativity Space and Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin, among others. While still just a fraction of the country's overall defense budget, the Space Force's $30 billion request for fiscal 2024 represents a 15% increase from this year's enacted levels.

☆ Morning Bid: Crowded bonds unnerved
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

This has some wondering if the recent dash for cash and top-rated bonds has become a bit crowded and how much more tightening central banks have to do. As we move into the weeds of the first-quarter U.S. earnings season, it's been a mixed bag so far. That clearly unnerved UK government bonds - where 10 year yields jumped 10bps - but it also jarred sovereign bonds around the world. Elsewhere, further signs of healing were evident in the global bank funding market. Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316.T) sold $1 billion of additional tier-1 debt, the first major global bank to sell the risky securities since similar bonds issued by Credit Suisse were wiped out last month.

☆ Moody's cuts Israel's outlook from 'positive' to 'stable'
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Jason Gewirtz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

It's another setback for Israel's economy since massive protests broke out across the country last month, due to proposed changes in the judicial system that are widely unpopular among citizens. For now, Moody's left the overall A1 rating in place for Israel, allowing it to stay in the upper end of the investment-grade category. But as a rating slips, a country faces the danger of having to pay higher rates to potential borrowers. What's more, outside investment from the U.S. and Europe is crucial to the health of Israel's economy. In a note issued late Friday afternoon, Moody's wrote: "The change of outlook to stable from positive reflects a deterioration of Israel's governance, as illustrated by the recent events around the government's proposal for overhauling the country's judiciary."

☆ Asian stocks subdued ahead of US inflation data, Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Data on Tuesday showed China's consumer inflation in March was at its slowest since September 2021. The consumer price index is expected to show core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis and 5.6% year-over-year in March, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Markets are now pricing in a 66% chance of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in May and then pausing for the subsequent meetings, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The Fed last month raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, taking it to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%. "Investors seem to be getting ahead of themselves in expecting the Fed to begin cutting interest rates", said Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management.

☆ IMF says more flexible BOJ yield control can prevent market whiplash
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Under yield curve control (YCC), the BOJ guides the 10-year government bond yield around 0% as part of efforts to sustainably achieve its 2% inflation target. The central bank's decision in December to widen the tolerance band around the yield target has heightened market bets of a further near-term tweak or end to YCC. Changes to the BOJ's yield control policy may affect financial markets through exchange rates, term premiums on sovereign bonds and global risk premiums, the IMF said. While the yield control policy has helped keep borrowing costs low, it has come under increasing criticism for distorting market pricing and crushing financial institutions' profits. "Clear communication in the event of adjustments to the Bank of Japan's monetary policy is critical to avoid market volatility," it said.

Italy's bond, which marks its third green bond and matures on 30 October 2031, was priced to yield 4.056%. Elsewhere, Cyprus raised 1 billion euros from its first sustainable bond, the country's debt office said, becoming the latest European government to enter the market. Sustainable bonds are a broader form ESG debt, proceeds from which can be spent on both green and social projects. Cyprus follows a number of smaller countries including Slovenia and Luxembourg opting for sustainable bonds as they often struggle to find enough projects to back standalone green bonds. Leonidou said Cyprus expects to sell sustainable bonds every two or three years going forward.

☆ Argentina orders public sector to give up dollar bonds in debt shake-up
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Eliana Raszewski | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File PhotoBUENOS AIRES, March 23 (Reuters) - Argentina ordered public sector bodies on Thursday to sell or exchange their holdings of 11 sovereign dollar bonds in a bid to reorganize its debt as inflation soared above 100% and its foreign reserves dropped. A presidential decree in Argentina's official gazette said public sector bodies would have to sell or auction five local law dollar bonds maturing between 2029 and 2041, and to swap six foreign law dollar bonds for peso debt. The order makes official plans announced earlier in the week, which had dragged down the value of Argentina's sovereign bonds. These are already in distressed debt territory after a ninth sovereign default and a major debt restructuring in 2020. Public sector bodies will have to sell the local law dollar bonds and exchange foreign law dollar bonds maturing between 2029 and 2046 for debt payable in pesos issued by the Treasury.

☆ Credit Suisse reinforces Japan’s offshore anxiety
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

HONG KONG, March 21 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The crisis at Credit Suisse has traders wondering who’s next. Japanese lenders, with their staid depositor bases, look like unlikely targets for bank runs. Yet the rising cost of short-term dollar and euro credit, combined with extreme yen volatility, have made hedging much more expensive. Domestic commercial lenders alone held $600 billion of international debt securities at the end of 2022, and some look overexposed. Take Japan Post Bank (7182.T), a $32 billion institution whose parent is partly owned by the Ministry of Finance.

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