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It was late October and Tim Scott’s campaign manager, Jennifer DeCasper, was trying to rally the troops on an all-staff call, announcing that they would soon relocate to Iowa in a last-ditch move to salvage his floundering presidential bid. She broke the news from the back seat of an Uber, according to four people familiar with the call. As the car bumped through the streets of Chicago after a Scott speech had run long, Ms. DeCasper insisted, “We are not failing.”But by then, even many of those around Mr. Scott believed his candidacy had already run its course. And his super PAC had canceled its own television ads days before Ms. DeCasper’s staff call. From 2020 to 2022, Mr. Ellison donated $35 million to Scott-aligned groups, and a huge check had seemed a foregone conclusion when Mr. Ellison showed up at the Scott kickoff and got a shout-out from the stage.
Persons: Tim Scott’s, Jennifer DeCasper, Uber, Scott, DeCasper, , Larry Ellison, Ellison Organizations: PAC, Scott Locations: Iowa, Chicago
Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, who tried carving out a space in the Republican presidential field with a hopeful message built on his life story — the son of a single mother, he rose from poverty to become the only Black Republican in the Senate — announced on Sunday that he was suspending his campaign. “I think the voters, who are the most remarkable people on the planet, have been really clear that they’re telling me, ‘Not now, Tim,’” Mr. Scott said on Sunday evening on Trey Gowdy’s program on Fox News. “I don’t think they’re saying, Trey, ‘No.’ But I do think they’re saying, ‘Not now.’”Mr. Scott said he had no intention of endorsing another candidate in the Republican primary race. “The best way for me to be helpful is to not weigh in,” he said. He also brushed off the idea that he could serve as someone else’s running mate.
Persons: Tim Scott of, Senate —, , , , Mr, Scott, Trey Gowdy’s, Trey, , Scott’s Organizations: Republican, Senate, Fox News, Republican National Committee Locations: Tim Scott of South Carolina
Senator Joe Manchin III said he decided to forgo re-election because he’d accomplished all his goals. But for the Democrats he’s leaving behind in Washington, the work to hold the party’s already slim Senate majority is just beginning. The state has become so conservative that only Wyoming delivered a wider Republican margin in the 2020 presidential race. “This is a huge impact,” Ward Baker, a former executive director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the group that oversees Senate races. “Manchin not running will save Republicans a ton of money — and it takes a seat off the board early.”
Persons: Joe Manchin III, he’d, Jim Justice, ” Ward Baker, “ Manchin, Organizations: Democrats he’s, Democratic, West Virginian, Republican, National Republican Senatorial Committee Locations: Washington, West Virginia, Wyoming
It was the undercard that underwhelmed. The third straight Republican presidential debate that former President Donald J. Trump has skipped — choosing instead to rally with supporters a few miles away — represented a critical and shrinking chance for his rivals to close his chasm of a polling advantage. And with only five candidates on the stage for the first time — Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy and Tim Scott — they all had far more time to speak. Yet they had precious little to say about Mr. Trump, even when given the chance just over two months before the Iowa caucuses. They sparred in a substantive debate that dissected disagreements over aid to Ukraine, Social Security, confronting China, banning TikTok and how to approach abortion less than 24 hours after Republicans suffered their latest electoral setbacks driven by the fall of Roe v. Wade.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, , Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott —, Roe, Wade Organizations: Social Security, Republicans Locations: Iowa, Ukraine, China
Democrats argued that the results on Tuesday night showed abortion’s resonance even in some of the country’s most conservative areas. Support for the measure enshrining abortion rights was notably higher than the backing for the Democratic candidate for Senate last year, particularly in the suburban swing counties surrounding Columbus and Cleveland. The results will almost certainly require the State Supreme Court to invalidate a six-week ban with limited exceptions that passed in 2019. Republicans have been searching in vain for a successful message on abortion ever since the Supreme Court’s decision. For nearly a half-century, Republican candidates had simply proclaimed themselves “pro-life,” without delving into the details of what that meant.
Persons: Beshear, Hadley Duvall, Duvall, Trump, Roe, Glenn Youngkin, Organizations: Republican Party, Democratic, Court, Republicans, Republican, State Senate Locations: Kentucky, Ohio, Columbus, Cleveland, Virginia
The Times/Siena College battleground polls released on Sunday and Monday were conducted over the past week in six swing states that are likely to decide the election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Five of the states were won by Donald J. Trump in 2016 and then flipped by Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020. Nevada, which has always been a close state, came down to less than one percentage point in the 2022 U.S. Senate election. These states also contain some of the coalitions that will be crucial next fall: younger, more diverse voters in states like Arizona, Georgia and Nevada; and white working-class voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin who helped swing the election to Trump in 2016, and were central to Mr. Biden’s 2020 victory. They also provide some geographic diversity.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Joseph R, Biden, Biden’s Organizations: Trump Locations: Siena, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, . Nevada, Nevada, Michigan , Pennsylvania
President Biden is trailing Donald J. Trump in five of the six most important battleground states one year before the 2024 election, suffering from enormous doubts about his age and deep dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy and a host of other issues, new polls by The New York Times and Siena College have found. The results show Mr. Biden losing to Mr. Trump, his likeliest Republican rival, by margins of three to 10 percentage points among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden is ahead only in Wisconsin, by two percentage points, the poll found.
Persons: Biden, Donald J, Trump Organizations: The New York Times, Siena College, Mr, Republican Locations: Arizona , Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Kim Reynolds of Iowa is expected to endorse Gov. The endorsement is set to take place as Mr. DeSantis appears in the state, according to three people familiar with the plans. Her interest in his candidacy has been clear for months, including to Mr. Trump, who criticized her for not falling in line behind him. People who have spoken with Ms. Reynolds say she has had some frustrations with the DeSantis campaign’s stumbles. But she is enraged with Mr. Trump, who has twice attacked her personally, according to those people.
Persons: Kim Reynolds, Ron DeSantis, Donald J, Trump, DeSantis, Reynolds, campaign’s Organizations: Gov, Republican, Des Moines Register, Republicans Locations: Iowa, Florida
Now, as abortion restrictions and bans in red states have become reality, the issue is again on the ballot, both explicitly and implicitly, in races across the country. In Kentucky, Democrats are testing whether abortion can provide a political advantage even in a red state, as Gov. In Ohio, a socially conservative state, a ballot question that would enshrine abortion rights in the State Constitution will measure the extent of the country’s political pivot toward abortion rights. And in Virginia, the only Southern state without an abortion ban, Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, is trying to flip the script in the state’s legislative elections, casting Democrats as “extreme” and saying his party supports a “common-sense position” — a 15-week ban.
Persons: Roe, Wade, Andy Beshear, Roe —, Glenn Youngkin Organizations: Democrat, Republican Locations: In Kentucky, Ohio, State, Virginia
In the days since he took the gavel, Mr. Johnson called Dan Conston, the president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, the main House Republican super PAC, and is expected to play a significant role in that group’s fund-raising going forward. Mr. Johnson has large financial shoes to fill. Mr. McCarthy’s transfers to the party’s House campaign committee amount to more than 25 percent of the $70.1 million raised this year. Then there are the hundreds of millions of dollars that Mr. McCarthy has helped raise in recent years for the House G.O.P.’s main super PAC, which has been closely aligned with him. “I helped build the majority, and I’m not going to walk away from it,” Mr. McCarthy said.
Persons: Johnson, Dan Conston, — Mr, McCarthy, , I’m, ” Mr Organizations: Congressional, Fund, House Republican, PAC, , Punchbowl News, National Republican
The super PAC supporting Donald J. Trump will begin airing an attack against Ron DeSantis in Iowa, a shift in strategy after months of focusing their messaging on their likely general election opponent. It will enter the rotation as part of an ad buy totaling hundreds of thousands of dollars by the group Make America Great Again Inc., which supports Mr. Trump. It aims to paint Mr. DeSantis, with less than three months before the state’s first-in-the-nation caucuses, as insufficiently conservative, by accusing him of supporting statehood for Puerto Rico. It marks a change in approach by the super PAC, which abandoned negative ads about Mr. DeSantis at the start of the summer. The group shifted to focusing on the likely general election opponent, and attacking President Biden, beginning in August, a move that might appeal to some primary voters but which also sent the message that Team Trump saw Mr. DeSantis as a fading threat.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Ron DeSantis, DeSantis, Biden, DeSantis’s, Andrew Romeo, Team Trump, Organizations: PAC, Inc, Team Locations: Iowa, Puerto Rico
Representative Mike Johnson of Louisiana had just survived a closed-door vote to end a tumultuous period of paralysis without a House speaker on Tuesday night and was celebrating with smiling and exhausted Republican colleagues. Mr. Johnson closed his eyes and shook his head. “Next question,” Mr. Johnson said. Only hours earlier, the speakership bid of another candidate, Tom Emmer, the majority whip, had been felled amid a lobbying blitz from Mr. Trump himself. His tenure as speaker designate lasted only four hours.
Persons: Mike Johnson of, , Johnson, Donald J, Trump, Mr, Tom Emmer, Emmer’s, Biden’s Locations: Mike Johnson of Louisiana
Ron DeSantis’s presidential campaign has found an unusual way to pay for his habit of flying in private planes: passing the cost to the better-funded super PAC that is increasingly intertwined with his operation. The super PAC, Never Back Down, pays for Mr. DeSantis’s travel only on days when the events he is attending are hosted solely by the group, the people familiar with the arrangement said. The super PAC now hosts many of his events in early primary states. Federal candidates can appear as “featured guests” of super PACs, but whether a super PAC can also pay for transportation is less clear cut. Super PACs are not allowed to coordinate with campaigns, and campaign finance experts say that Mr. DeSantis’s arrangement — in which he is campaigning for president as a guest of a super PAC — could test that rule.
Persons: Ron DeSantis’s Organizations: Gov, PAC
The main super PAC supporting Senator Tim Scott’s presidential campaign abruptly announced to donors in a memo that it was canceling millions of dollars in television ads it had reserved this fall, writing that Donald J. Trump’s strength was so ingrained among Republican voters that additional advertising would currently make little difference. “We aren’t going to waste our money when the electorate isn’t focused or ready for a Trump alternative,” Rob Collins, a Republican strategist who is a co-chairman of the super PAC, wrote in the blunt memo to donors that was circulated on Monday. The super PAC, called the Trust in Mission PAC, or TIMPAC, has been one of the largest advertisers in the race, spending roughly $5 million in Iowa alone this year. Mr. Scott’s poll numbers have hardly budged, however, and Mr. Trump remains far ahead. In addition to the super PAC, Mr. Scott’s campaign had also spent aggressively on television advertising, spending more than $12.5 million on ads to run through the end of November, the campaign said.
Persons: Tim Scott’s, Donald J, ” Rob Collins, , Tim, Trump, Scott’s Organizations: Republican, The New York Times, Mission PAC, Mr Locations: Iowa
The push into Iowa highlights the state’s make-or-break status for Mr. DeSantis’s long-shot effort to defeat former President Donald J. Trump. Mr. DeSantis hopes a surprise victory in Iowa’s caucuses, the first voting state of the Republican nominating contest, will make enough voters see that Mr. Trump is beatable — motivating them to quickly rally around Mr. DeSantis as the only candidate able to stop him. About a third of Mr. DeSantis’s campaign staff, including senior political and communications advisers, were informed on Wednesday morning that they would be expected to move into short-term housing in Iowa and work from offices in the state. His campaign now employs 56 people, including four Iowa staff members — a number that will soon grow to nearly two dozen, making Iowa a de facto second headquarters. The relocation completes a monthslong retooling of Mr. DeSantis’s campaign, which was in dire financial straits this summer — with delayed bills and unpaid invoices piling up — and had to do two rounds of mass firings in order to remain solvent.
Persons: Ron DeSantis, redeploying, DeSantis’s, Donald J, Trump, DeSantis, Organizations: Iowa, Republican, Mr Locations: Florida, Tallahassee, Des Moines, Iowa’s, Iowa
The second Republican presidential debate without Donald J. Trump is missing the front-runner’s star power, but the performances of his rivals on Wednesday are still expected to be deeply consequential — forecasting whether the 2024 field of Republicans will consolidate around a single Trump alternative. Ron DeSantis of Florida has been the chief challenger to Mr. Trump. Among those watching at home will be some of the Republican Party’s biggest donors who have so far held out from backing any of the candidates. Major contributors are planning to watch the second debate carefully, according to people in contact with several of them, in order to see who, if anyone, they might rally behind in the coming months. All seven candidates at the debate are facing the dual-track challenge of trying to emerge as a singular rival of Mr. Trump without letting the former president entirely run away with the contest before that happens.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Ron DeSantis, Ronald Reagan, Organizations: Gov, Ronald Reagan Presidential, Republican Locations: Florida, New Hampshire, South Carolina, California
But now, as Mr. Trump’s lead in the primary has grown and hardened, the party has dropped Mr. DeSantis from such hypothetical matchups. And the Biden campaign’s polling on Republican candidates is now directed squarely at Mr. Trump, according to officials familiar with the surveys. The sharpened focus on Mr. Trump isn’t happening only behind the scenes. On Sunday, after Mr. Trump sought to muddy the waters on his position on abortion, the Biden operation and its surrogates pushed back with uncommon intensity. On Monday, Mr. Biden told donors at a New York fund-raiser that Mr. Trump was out to “destroy” American democracy, in some of his most forceful language so far about the implications of a second Trump term.
Persons: — Donald J, Trump, Ron DeSantis —, Biden, Trump’s, DeSantis, Organizations: Republican, Democratic National Committee, Trump, Locations: New York, Manhattan
Former President Donald J. Trump is planning to travel to Detroit on the day of the next Republican primary debate, according to two Trump advisers with knowledge of the plans, injecting himself into the labor dispute between striking autoworkers and the nation’s leading auto manufacturers. The trip, which will include a prime-time speech before current and former union members, is the second consecutive primary debate that Mr. Trump is skipping to instead hold his own counterprogramming. He sat for an interview with the former Fox News host Tucker Carlson that posted online during the first G.O.P. presidential debate in August. Mr. Trump has not directly addressed the wage demands of striking workers and has attacked the union leadership, but he has tried to more broadly cast himself on the side of autoworkers.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Tucker Carlson, Biden, Ronald Reagan Organizations: Trump, Fox News, United Auto Workers, , Ronald Reagan Presidential Library Locations: Detroit, Michigan, California, autoworkers
“The left views leftist ideology as effectively the national religion,” Mr. DeSantis had told the women’s group earlier in the day. “They will tolerate our faith — as long as it doesn’t impact their agenda.” Mr. Trump echoed similar themes — with a strikingly different style that included attacking Mr. DeSantis by nickname and meandering into extraneous topics. He mocked Mr. DeSantis as a political mimic, down to the way the governor sometimes tosses hats into crowds. “He gets low and he flicks his wrist,” Mr. Trump said, suggesting that Mr. DeSantis was copying his routine. “We don’t like these copycats, do we?”And he reveled in his current advantage in the polls, telling the women’s group that Mr. DeSantis “went down like an injured bird out of the sky.
Persons: , ” Mr, DeSantis, Mr, Trump, DeSantis “, Biden, Organizations: Women, America
President Biden is planning to deliver a major speech on the ongoing threats to democracy in Arizona later this month, with the address scheduled the day after the next Republican presidential primary debate. One location for the speech that has been under discussion is the McCain Institute, according to a person familiar with the planning. The institute, which is devoted to “fighting for democracy,” is named for Senator John McCain, a Republican who served for more than 20 years in the Senate with Mr. Biden and who sparred repeatedly with former President Donald J. Trump, the Republican Party’s front-runner in 2024. Mr. Biden has made the perils facing American democracy a central theme of his 2020 campaign and also his 2024 re-election bid. He also made the case ahead of the 2022 midterms that Mr. Trump and his allies posed a threat to the “soul of the nation.”Anita Dunn, a top White House adviser, told Democratic donors about the upcoming speech on Wednesday in Chicago, the site of the party’s 2024 convention, according to people familiar with her remarks.
Persons: Biden, John McCain, sparred, Donald J, Trump, Mr, Anita Dunn Organizations: Republican, McCain, Mr, White Locations: Arizona, Chicago
A Washington Post/FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos survey of Republicans after the debate showed that only 4 percent believed Mr. Scott had won, placing him toward the back of the pack. The day after the debate, he garnered only 3 percent of the candidate searches, which can be a metric of voter interest. Eric Levine, a New York lawyer and Republican donor who attended the debate as a guest of Mr. Scott’s campaign, said he believed the senator had won by staying above the fray. “Very few questions were actually asked of Tim Scott. “Tim Scott is built for this race,” Ms. Gitcho said.
Persons: Scott, Trump, Vivek Ramaswamy, Eric Levine, Scott’s, , Mr, Levine, Tim Scott, insinuate, ” Gail Gitcho, “ Tim Scott, Ms, Gitcho, Organizations: Washington Post, Mr, Google, Republican Locations: New York
Former President Donald J. Trump has done his best to appear unfazed and unbowed by having been indicted four times since March, but even he acknowledged that he did not enjoy one particular element of his booking in Georgia on Thursday night on racketeering charges: the mug shot. “It is not a comfortable feeling — especially when you’ve done nothing wrong,” he told Fox News’s website in an interview afterward. Nonetheless, he made the most of it. Not long after the release of the mug shot — the first taken of Mr. Trump in any of the criminal proceedings he faces and the first known to have been taken of any former president — it appeared prominently on Mr. Trump’s campaign website, under a “personal note from President Donald J. Trump.”At the bottom were several tabs users could click to donate to his campaign in small-dollar increments.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, you’ve, , Fox, Organizations: Fox News’s, Mr, Trump, Locations: Georgia
One thing was clear when former President Donald J. Trump decided to skip the first debate of the 2024 Republican primary race: There would be a vacuum to fill. But it was not Mr. Trump’s chief rival in the polls, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who emerged at the epicenter of the first Trump-free showdown on Wednesday, but instead the political newcomer Vivek Ramaswamy, whose unlikely rise has revealed the remarkable degree to which the former president has remade the party. Mr. DeSantis had stumbled heading into the debate and was widely seen as in need of a stabilizing performance. All eight candidates mostly jostled for position among themselves, and few targeted the front-runner who is set to surrender on Thursday after his fourth criminal indictment.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Trump’s, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, DeSantis Organizations: Republican, Gov, Trump Locations: Florida
The super PAC supporting him had posted a trove of sensitive material, including strategic advice and research on his rivals, only days before the first debate of the 2024 campaign. Mr. DeSantis erupted over the revelation, according to people told of his reaction, even though the posting of the documents online was meant to avoid running afoul of campaign finance rules. The advice memo, pilloried as “amateurish” within his extended orbit, was quickly taken down, along with the other documents, but the damage had been done. If he followed the advice laid out — including which rivals to hit — he would look like a puppet. Campaigning over the weekend, Mr. DeSantis distanced himself from the memo.
Persons: Ron DeSantis, Biden, DeSantis, , , , It’s, Donald J, Trump Organizations: PAC, Florida Locations: Florida, Milwaukee
Yet even the most viral moment could quickly be swept away in a wave of Trump-driven news. How they make their case could make the 2024 primary a contest and not a coronation. Here are nine things that are likely to define the debate. While the candidates have been asked about those issues frequently, a debate allows for follow-up questions — heightening the possibly of a misstep. He has announced plans to try to upstage the debate with the release of a recorded online interview with the former Fox News host Tucker Carlson.
Persons: , Newt Gingrich, “ Donald Trump, Trump, , Tucker Carlson Organizations: Republican, Trump, Fox News Locations: Atlanta
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