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☆ Interpreting the jobs data: No more half-point rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Fred Imbert | Kavitha Shastry | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. economy added a whopping 254,000 jobs in September, nearly 100,000 more than economists expected. The unemployment rate, which was expected to hold steady at 4.2%, slipped to 4.1%. Wages also rose more than expected month over month. To be sure, the new data also has traders pricing a smaller quarter percentage point interest rate reduction at the central bank's November meeting. "Fed cuts should be slower and I continue to think (and the data supports it) that the current neutral rate is well above 3% (economy chugging along on 5% yields for over a year)," said Tchir.

Persons: Sonu Varghese, Glen Smith, Lindsay Rosner, Ian Lyngen, Peter Tchir Organizations: Stock, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal, Carson Group, GDS Wealth, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, BMO Capital Markets, Academy Securities Locations: U.S

☆ Stock market next week: Investors wonder what's to come after tumultuous October start
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Stocks struggled this week as rising tensions in the Middle East set off the strongest rally in oil prices since March 2023. "The stock market has been living up to October's reputation of increased volatility," said Glen Smith, chief investment officer at GDS Wealth Management. Inflation report, Fed minutes on deck In the week ahead, investors will keep an eye on a couple of potential catalysts. On Wednesday, investors will parse minutes from September's central bank gathering for insights into the future path of monetary policy. "I would say the inflation report is probably less important than it used to be," Dickson said.

Persons: Stocks, Glen Smith, Said, Mike Dickson, Chris Zaccarelli, Zaccarelli, Investment's Dickson, It's, Dickson, Wells, John Williams, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, GDS Wealth Management, Federal, Horizon Investments, CNBC Pro, Independent, Alliance, PepsiCo, Delta, JPMorgan Chase, PepsiCO, New York Fed, PPI, University of Michigan, BlackRock, Bank of NY Mellon, JPMorgan Locations: White, Wells Fargo, Fastenal, Wells

☆ The bull market is about to turn two. Here's what's needed for further gains ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This latest bull run has been strong, even by historical standards. The broad market index has also reached a record above 5,700 — with some on the Street expecting it to top 6,000 before year-end. The bull market will be two later this month. .SPX mountain 2022-09-30 SPX since Q4 2022 The first: "The disinflation that has defined the cyclical bull needs to remain in place," said Clissold. The second element needed for the bull run to carry on is a successful soft landing.

Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Clissold Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Fed, JPMorgan

☆ Gold rangebound as investors brace for key U.S. economic data
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices were trading in a tight range on Thursday as traders remained on the sidelines ahead of a key U.S. economic data that may provide clues about the size of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts expected later this year. Gold prices were trading in a tight range on Thursday as traders remained on the sidelines ahead of a key U.S. economic data that may provide clues about the size of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts expected later this year. Investors are watching out for the ISM services data and the initial jobless claims, due later in the day, along with the U.S. non-farm payroll data expected on Friday. Gold tends to thrive in a low interest rate environment and political turmoil. Elsewhere, Perth Mint's gold product sales touched a 10-month high in September, while silver sales hit a seven-month high.

Persons: Brian Lan, —, CME's, Lan Organizations: GoldSilver Central, Investors, U.S . Locations: Singapore, Israel, Beirut, Iran, Perth

☆ Americans are able to bet on the US elections again after a legal fight
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Americans can bet on the outcome of US elections following a legal fight. Last month, Kalshi briefly listed bets on congressional election outcomes before the CFTC shut them down. On Wednesday, prediction market Kalshi got the go-ahead to take bets on congressional elections after a months-long legal battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That makes it one of the only options for Americans to bet on election outcomes, and the only legal one for Americans to wager large amounts of money. The court's decision comes just five weeks before the elections, and follows years of legal battles between prediction markets and the CFTC.

Persons: Kalshi, —, CoinDesk, Harry Crane Organizations: CFTC, Service, Futures Trading Commission, Federal, Kalshi, Senate, Rutgers University Locations: New York, New Zealand

☆ JP Morgan: India stocks “not appealing at the moment” due to valuations
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJP Morgan: India stocks “not appealing at the moment” due to valuationsJP Morgan Asset Management’s David Kelly cites the opportunities in Asian equity and debt markets following the U.S. Federal Reserve's 50 basis-point cut.

Persons: JP, David Kelly Organizations: U.S, U.S . Federal Locations: India, U.S .

See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowWhat Are Today's Mortgage Refinance Rates? See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. Current 30-Year Mortgage RatesAverage 30-year mortgage rates are hovering around 5.90%, according to Zillow data. Current 15-Year Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates are in the low 5% range, according to Zillow data. But now that inflation has decelerated and the Fed is expected to cut rates soon, mortgage rates have trended down.

Persons: Freddie Mac, it's, Fannie Mae Organizations: Fed, ADP, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Zillow, Mortgage, Association, ARM, . Government Locations: Chevron, Government

☆ Stock markets today: Indexes slip as jobless claims rise ahead of highly anticipated jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Indexes edged lower Thursday as investors assessed jobless claims and geopolitical tensions. On Friday, investors will get a fresh labor market update from the September nonfarm payrolls report. AdvertisementUS stocks inched lower on Thursday, fueled by an uptick in jobless claims ahead of a key jobs report and continued tensions in the Middle East. Analysts say the report will likely have a big influence on both markets and the Fed in the coming weeks. Advertisement"We think a soft employment report is likely to generate a larger market response vs a strong labor report," Bank of America analysts said in a Wednesday report.

Persons: —, Israel Organizations: Service, Labor Department, Israel, Federal, Bank of America, Trump, RBC Locations: Iran

☆ New Century's Claudia Sahm talks what to expect from the September jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNew Century's Claudia Sahm talks what to expect from the September jobs reportClaudia Sahm, New Century Advisors chief economist and former Fed economist, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk Friday's jobs data and how it will impact the Federal Reserve's next rate hike decision.

Persons: Claudia Sahm Organizations: Claudia Sahm , New Century Advisors, Fed, Federal Locations: Claudia Sahm ,

☆ Modelo brewer Constellation falls despite an earnings beat. Here's why we're not concerned
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Kevin Stankiewicz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

Modelo and Corona brewer Constellation Brands is a tale of two businesses. Constellation Brands Why we own it : Constellation Brands' beer franchise, which includes popular Mexican brands Modelo, Corona and Pacifico, is the growth engine and by far the most attractive part of the business. And, the profitability of its beer business — operating margins were an impressive 42.6% in the quarter — puts Constellation in a position of strength. Still, raising an anchor is always welcome news, and talk of its booming beer business would, at last, no longer need the wine-and-spirits caveat. Looking ahead, its beer business should continue grabbing market share and its hard to imagine the wine-and-spirits unit getting much worse.

Persons: Bill Newlands, Thursday's, Newlands, Kim Crawford, There's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Justin Sullivan Organizations: Corona, Constellation Brands, LSEG, Modelo, Anheuser, Busch Inbev, Molson Coors, Investors, Constellation, National Football League, Bloomberg, Brier, Modelo Especial, CNBC Locations: Corona, Pacifico, Wednesday's, U.S, Campo, West Coast, San Rafael , California

☆ Yale's Stephen Roach: Markets are in danger of being 'whipsawed' by Middle East conflict, U.S. unemployment
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Anniek Bao | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Ilia Yefimovich/dpa | Picture Alliance | Getty ImagesMarkets are in danger of being "whipsawed" by the combination of regional conflict in the Middle East and rising unemployment in the United States, says Stephen Roach, senior fellow at Yale Law School's Paul Tsai China Center. Most Asian markets fell on Wednesday, tracking losses on Wall Street overnight, as investors fretted over rising tensions in the Middle East. A higher-than-expected unemployment rate could prompt the Fed to accelerate the easing cycle to achieve a soft landing. The unemployment rate in September is expected to come in at 4.2%, according to data of a Reuters poll on LSEG, unchanged from the August figure. The unemployment rate had jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% in July, a dramatic rise from the five-decade low of 3.4% in April 2023.watch now

Persons: Ilia Yefimovich, Stephen Roach, Yale Law School's Paul Tsai, Hassan Nasrallah, Roach, CNBC's, Stephen Stanley, Kelvin Tay Organizations: Missiles, Getty, Yale Law, Yale Law School's Paul Tsai China Center, Wall, Israel Defense Forces, Santander, Organization of, Petroleum, Energy Information Administration, UBS Global Wealth Management, U.S . Federal Reserve, Traders, U.S, U.S . Federal Locations: Israel, Tel Aviv, Iran, United States, Iranian, Lebanon, U.S .

☆ Stocks face a 10% drop with key economic data mired in recession territory, investment chief says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Key data prints are hovering in recession territory, Megan Horneman said. "I think investors got a little ahead of themselves," she said. This over-enthusiasm could cost the market heavily, pushing stocks toward a 7% to 10% drop, the chief investment officer said. "I think investors got a little ahead of themselves as far as the what strength there is in the economy," she told Yahoo Finance. Still, these data prints have taken a backseat to labor data, which holds the spotlight on Wall Street.

Persons: Megan Horneman, —, Tim Fiore, Morgan Stanley, Horneman Organizations: Yahoo Finance, Service, Conference Board, September's, PMI, US Federal Reserve

☆ Federal spending on children peaked in 2021. Now it may decline by $230 per child in 2024, report finds
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-01 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Federal spending on children climbed to a peak of $11,690 per child in 2021 in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2024, that spending is expected to level off to $8,760 per child — a decline of about $230 per child from the previous year, the research found. In 2021, child poverty fell to 5.2%, down from 12.6% in 2019. The expiration of the aid drove child poverty back up to 12.4% in 2022. Tax expenditures represent the largest drop in federal spending on children between 2022 and 2023, while there were also sharp declines in spending on nutrition and more modest changes in education funding, according to the Urban Institute.

Persons: —, Heather Hahn, Hahn Organizations: Urban Institute, D.C, Finance Locations: Washington

☆ Bank of America joins growing chorus on Wall Street loving this sector to play China's stimulus
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-01 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A major Wall Street strategist is jumping aboard the story that materials stocks could be at the start of a big rally. That theory played out during last week's rally for Chinese stocks. The Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB) rose 3% last week, though it was down a bit on Monday and Tuesday. XLB 1M mountain This materials fund is up since the Chinese stock rally began. Bank of America isn't the only Wall Street shop that's bullish on materials given the change in China.

Persons: Savita Subramanian, Sherwin, Subramanian, Roth MKM's JC O'Hara Organizations: Bank of America, Linde Locations: China, Freeport, McMoRan

☆ Stock futures fall slightly following rocky start to October: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock exchange during morning trading on May 17, 2024. Stock futures slipped in overnight trading following a sour start to the new trading month and final quarter of 2024. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 80 points, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures lost about 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. In after-hours action, Nike slid about 7% after the sneaker giant pulled its full-year guidance ahead of its CEO change. Ahead of Friday's keynote September jobs report, Wall Street on Wednesday will gain insight into the state of private payrolls with ADP's Employment Survey.

Persons: Elliott Hill, Ryan Detrick, nonfarm Organizations: New York Stock, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nike, LPL, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, U.S, Treasury, ADP's, Federal Locations: Iran, Israel, Lebanon

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Stocks are dancing in September
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Andrew Kelly | ReutersThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Stocks' defiant showing this September was helped by positive sentiment generated by the U.S. Federal Reserve's jumbo rate cut and upbeat economic data. Relatedly, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for September rose to a better-than-forecast 70.1 from 67.9 in August. "Inflation continues to keep its head down, and while economic growth may be slowing, there's no indication it's falling off a cliff."

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley, –, Jeff Cox, Brian Evans, Pia Singh Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, CNBC, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, U.S, U.S . Federal, University of, U.S . Bureau, Atlanta Locations: U.S .

☆ Why the Fed's rate cut won't immediately help car buyers or sales
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Michael Wayland | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

DETROIT — The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years is expected to eventually boost new vehicle sales, but not as quickly or by as much as some may expect. The biggest near-term improvement in auto loan rates isn't expected until early next year, according to Smoke. He said that unlike the cost of home loans, which has come down in recent months, auto loan rate changes can be delayed because they're really a function of longer-term bond yields that are based on loan performances. Auto loan 30-day delinquency rates have risen considerably in recent years, according to a Thursday note from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Although they remain below the peak levels of the Great Recession, as of the end of 2023, auto loan delinquency rates exceeded pre-pandemic levels by about 60 basis points.

Persons: Jonathan Smoke, we've, they're Organizations: DETROIT, Cox Automotive, Auto, Governors, Federal Reserve

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Shiny September days for stocks
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Brendan Mcdermid | ReutersThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Stocks' defiant showing this September was helped by positive sentiment generated by the U.S. Federal Reserve's jumbo rate cut and upbeat economic data. Relatedly, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for September rose to a better-than-forecast 70.1 from 67.9 in August. "Inflation continues to keep its head down, and while economic growth may be slowing, there's no indication it's falling off a cliff."

Persons: Brendan Mcdermid, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley, –, Jeff Cox, Brian Evans, Pia Singh Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, CNBC, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, U.S, U.S . Federal, University of, U.S . Bureau, Atlanta Locations: U.S .

☆ Gold pulls back but dovish Fed sets it for best quarter since 2016
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, January 31, 2023. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $2,653.38 per ounce, as of 0404 GMT, owing to a rise in the U.S. dollar . A stronger dollar makes gold less attractive for other currency holders. Bullion has risen slightly over 14% so far this quarter, its best since January 2016. This boosted expectations of an another outsized interest rate cut at the Fed's November policy meeting.

Persons: Tim Waterer, nonfarm, Jerome Powell, Michelle Bowman, Waterer Organizations: U.S ., Federal, KCM, U.S, Sunday Locations: Siberian, Krasnoyarsk, Russia, U.S, Israel, Yemen, Lebanon

The yield on the 10-year Treasury added more than 3 basis points to 3.787%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 3.637% after rising more than 7 basis points. U.S. Treasury yields advanced Monday as investors considered the state of the economy after the latest data release and commentary from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. Investors were assessing the state of the economy, including the path ahead for inflation and what this could mean for interest rates after the release of key data. The 12-month inflation rate came in at 2.2%, down from 2.5% in July and the lowest since February 2021.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Investors, PCE, Fed, PMI

☆ Jim Cramer names the Wall Street bright spots from a tumultuous third quarter
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Julie Coleman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

CNBC's Jim Cramer on Monday looked back at the past three months, picking out positives in a chaotic stretch for the market. He added that the central bank set the stage for a substantial rate cut so they could make the move without sending Wall Street into a panic. The market also broadened out after Big Tech had dominated for months on end, Cramer said. And despite the tumult in the leadup to a divisive presidential election, Wall Street "chose to ignore the drama," he said. "The months of July, August, September gave us some outstanding returns," Cramer said.

Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Donald Trump Organizations: Big Tech, Democratic

☆ Yen steadies, dollar slips as China reaches for stimulus
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Japanese 10,000 yen banknotes and U.S. one-hundred dollar banknotes are arranged for a photograph in Tokyo, Japan. The yen slipped about 0.4% to 142.75 per dollar after jumping 1.8% on Friday. European inflation data on Tuesday and Chinese data due later on Monday are also keenly awaited. The New Zealand dollar was up 0.3% at $0.6360 after hitting its highest since December on Friday. "The trend over next year or so is for the dollar to go down," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso.

Persons: Shigeru Ishiba, Ishiba, Ray Attrill, Joe Capurso Organizations: Liberal Democratic Party, NHK, Bank of Japan, National, New, New Zealand, U.S, U.S . Federal, Commonwealth Bank of Australia Locations: Tokyo, Japan, National Australia, China, U.S .

☆ Forget Nvidia: Here's how one CIO is positioning after the rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Amala Balakrishner | In Amala-Balakrishner | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. Federal Reserve's bumper 50-basis-point interest rate cut has been the talk of the market as investors evaluate sectors and stocks. Kingsley Jones, a chief investment officer at the Sydney-headquartered Jevons Global, says the rate cut has "supported the market." Avoid semiconductor equipment Jones is avoiding sectors like semiconductor equipment that companies have been spending more on, following interest in building AI infrastructure and chip factories. He warned of the impact that U.S. sanctions might have on semiconductor equipment plays. "So, I'd avoid the semi equipment sector trade out of that," he added.

Persons: Kingsley Jones, Jevons, Jones, it's, wasn't Organizations: U.S, Sydney, Tech, Big Tech, Nvidia, AbbVie Inc, Costco, Oracle Locations: Federal, United States, China

☆ After a week of records, there's one main market event that could change everything
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-29 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The Fed's target inflation rate is 2%, so we're getting closer. In the week ahead, we get quarterly results from Club name Constellation Brands and the government's September employment report. Jobs, Jobs, Jobs This coming Friday's big update on the state of the labor market is the main market event and could have big implications for Wall Street and the path for Fed rate cuts. However, the market took the news in stride because recent weakness in the stock was already reflecting the sluggish sales environment. ET: September ADP Report Before the bell: Conagra (CAG) After the bell: Levi Strauss (LEVI) Thursday, Oct. 3 8:30 a.m.

Persons: Thursday's, Jerome Powell, we'll, We're, Levi Strauss, LEVI, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Core PCE, GE Healthcare, Costco, Constellation Brands, Wall, ADP, Pacifico, McCormick &, PMI, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Covid, Corona, New York City

☆ A researcher who studied Trump's plans to control the Fed said it could tank the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-29 | by ( Alice Tecotzky | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Economists at the Peterson Institute studied what would happen if Trump undermined Fed independence. The study's lead researchers dug into the economic impact of three of Trump's campaign promises: mass deportations, tariffs, and eroding Fed independence. Though Trump promises an America First economic agenda, McKibbin said that taking control of the Fed would get him the opposite results. AdvertisementHe doesn't think the public is paying enough attention to the risks of Trump's Fed proposals or the overall murkiness of the candidates' economic policy. "If you're going to advocate a policy, there has to be evidence as to why you're advocating that policy," McKibbin said.

Persons: Trump, —, Warwick McKibbin, McKibbin, Jerome Powell, Trump hasn't, they're, Kamala Harris, Harris Organizations: Peterson Institute, Fed, BI, Service, Federal, Peterson Institute of International Economics, Trump, PIIE, Business, Wall Street Journal, Biden Locations: China, Canada, Mexico, Australia, America

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