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☆ What the stock market does historically after the first Fed rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 touched a record high on Tuesday , bringing its year-to-date gain to more than 18%. The S & P 500 averaged a 5.5% gain in the first three months after an initial cut, 10.6% six months later and 11.3% one year out. On average, the broader index jumped 10.2% three months later, 14.7% six months out and 18.6% one year afterward. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, ytd Other investment banks have noted this discrepancy, with Bank of America Securities also highlighting the pattern in a recent note. The worst-performing sectors 12 months after a rate cut were materials, utilities and consumer discretionary.

Persons: Canaccord, Ohsung Kwon, Canaccord Genuity, — CNBC's Gabriel Cortes Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of America Securities

☆ Don’t expect much from stocks for the next decade, says JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Pia Singh | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

As investors are navigating all the buzz about this week's potential rate cut and the upcoming presidential election, JPMorgan is forecasting a serious risk to long-term stock returns. The market appears to be too expensive relative to history, according to the firm, which is projecting a 5.7% annual return from the S & P 500 over the next decade. That is barely above half its post-World War II average, analyst Jan Loeys said in a recent note to clients. .SPX 5Y mountain S & P 500 performance over the past five years. The "Great Moderation" refers to the period from the mid-1980s to 2007 that saw low inflation and steady economic growth.

Persons: Jan Loeys, Loeys Organizations: JPMorgan

☆ S&P 500 rallies back to old highs, setting up Fed meeting to be make or break moment
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-14 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The market's turn toward treating good economic news as positive for stocks is pictured here in a chart from Citi strategists, showing the three-month correlation between the S & P 500 and the Citi U.S. Economic Surprise index has turned sharply higher. The S & P 500's low for the week was Wednesday morning, right at the 5400 level where it previously hit a low a week ago Friday after a tepid employment report. Forward 12-month S & P 500 earnings forecasts continue to rise smartly, now approaching $270. But, thanks to the past two months of sideways churn, that's down from 21.7 when the S & P first hit its current level in July. And the rally last week could well have front-run any potential positive inference from the Fed's move next week.

Persons: Ally Financial, Ed Hyman, Loretta Mester, William Dudley, John Kolovos Organizations: Citi, Citi U.S, Fed, Ally, CPI, Wall Street, Financial Times, Treasury, National Association of Active Investment, American Association of

☆ CNBC Daily Open: All key data is in — and it's made the Fed's policy path more uncertain
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Last Friday, the August employment report showed the number of jobs added was lower than expected but higher than the previous month. Wednesday's CPI report showed the lowest 12-month inflation rate in two-and-a-half years. In short, the data hasn't cleared up whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 basis points. They think there's a 57% chance of a 25 point cut and 43% of a 50 point one, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Persons: Stefani Reynolds, We've, Wednesday's, Jeff Cox, Pia Singh, Sarah Min Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, CNBC, U.S . Federal Reserve, PPI Locations: Washington ,

☆ Goldman Sachs loves these 4 top European stocks — giving one 110% upside
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Four U.K.-listed stocks — one of which was given 110% upside — are among Goldman Sachs' European conviction list. While the S & P 500 fell by 5.85% in the first week of August, the FTSE 100, an index of the 100 largest London-listed stocks, outperformed by falling by only 2.4%. .FTSE .SPX 5Y line The investment bank said the FTSE 100 "can also provide good diversification from the concentrated and Tech-heavy S & P 500 ." The bank notes that SSE's "leading capabilities vs. peers position it well to capture this investment growth." The investment bank said the company "is at the start of a revenue acceleration" supported by increasing market share and expansion into new markets.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Sharon Bell, Tufan Erginbilgic, LSEG Goldman, LSEG Organizations: FTSE, SPX, Tech, BT Group, Royce, London Stock Exchange, BT, London Stock Exchange Group, Bloomberg, Microsoft Locations: British, London, United States

☆ Stocks are near record highs despite turmoil and 'erratic price action'
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are headed for their fourth weekly gain in five weeks, up 3.5% and 5.3%, respectively. Those gains have come even after a massive but brief intraday sell-off Wednesday — which was quickly erased after the S & P 500 stayed above a key level. .SPX 5D mountain SPX 5-day chart Indeed, after all the wild swings, the S & P 500 is a scant 1.2% below an intraday record of 5,669.67 reached in July. "Erratic price action in equities suggests confusion amid ever changing market narratives," Cau wrote. "Therefore, equity price action may stay volatile and data dependent, until we get more clarity on the economic outlook."

Persons: Rob Ginsberg, Emmanuel Cau, Cau Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Wolfe Research, Fed, Barclays Locations: U.S

☆ These 5 parts of the stock market are most at risk if Trump wins the election and implements wide-reaching tariffs, Barclays says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The presidential candidate has pledged to unleash universal tariffs on all US trade if elected. The firm outlined which five sectors are the most exposed to losses if Trump wins and implements tariffs. To be sure, US firms have some way of navigating higher costs associated with tariffs, Barclays said. Other economists have loudly criticized Trump's tariff idea as fuel for inflation, given that prices will rise amid a pullback in foreign products. AdvertisementAccording to Barclays, inflation would climb 0.09 percentage points in the short run, and US GDP could take a 1.2% hit in the first 12 months.

Persons: Trump's, —, Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, Trump Organizations: Barclays, Trump, Service, Democratic, Companies Locations: Mexico

☆ Forget funds like SPY and VOO — buy this alternative S&P 500 index that's trading near its cheapest levels since the dot-com bubble
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Christine Ji | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

But there's another lesser-known S&P 500 index that you might not have heard of: the SPW. In contrast, the conventional S&P 500 allocates more weight to the biggest companies based on market capitalization. Big Tech names carry very little debt on their balance sheets, meaning that they are less affected by elevated interest rates. Bank of AmericaIn contrast, the cap-weight S&P 500 is approaching overvalued territory. Examples of SPW index funds include the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) and Goldman Sachs Equal Weight U.S. Large Cap Equity ETF (GSEW).

Persons: —, that's, Jack Ablin, LPL, Jeff Buchbinder, Savita Subramanian, Buchbinder, Ablin, haven't, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Big Tech, Business, Bank of America, Cresset, Healthcare, financials, Bank of America's, Equity, RSP

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Looking past sticky core inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The S&P 500 climbed 1.07%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.31% and the Nasdaq Composite shot up 2.17%. Core inflation, to which the Fed pays more attention because it more accurately reflects price movements, came in a bit higher than expected for the month. Core inflation was higher than the headline number because food and energy prices are stripped out from the former.

Persons: Spencer Platt, –, Jeff Cox, Pia Singh, Lisa Kailai Han Organizations: Getty, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Fed, of Labor Statistics, Nvidia, Reuters, U.S . House Locations: Brooklyn, New York City, U.S, Saudi Arabia

☆ Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha sees room for S&P 500 to run into year-end
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha lifted his year-end target for the S & P 500 on Thursday, saying the market has more room to run despite current turmoil. He tied this call to the fact that valuations are supported despite being at the top of their fair-value ranges. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, year to date He said to expect more choppiness, such as what investors have experienced in recent weeks, even as the market recovers from its current correction. Chadha expects prices to retreat again going into the presidential election, only to rally afterward to year-end. The S & P 500 has added about 2.5% in the third quarter despite rocky trading.

Persons: Chadha Organizations: CNBC

☆ This volatility-resistant area of the stock market is ripe for outperformance after two decades of decline, according to Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Christine Ji | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

According to Bank of America, one area of the market is set to benefit from increased market volatility: quality stocks, or stocks with strong business models and financial fundamentals. And the cherry on top is that quality stocks — which typically become expensive during downturns — are still cheap despite their recent rally, coming out of a two-decade rut. As seen in the graph below, the high-quality factor serves as a hedge against elevated market volatility. Bank of AmericaQuality is still cheapLuckily for investors, this safe-haven area of the stock market is trading at an attractive valuation. Bank of AmericaWhile quality stocks have recently re-rated to a slight premium, they're still reasonably priced, according to Bank of America.

Persons: —, Subramanian, Financials, Schwab Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, PMI, Investors, of, Companies, Equity Locations: of America's

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Did Apple’s shiny new things improve market sentiment?
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Nic Coury | AFP | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineMaybe all it takes are shiny new things to lift our mood and take our minds off recession fears. Of course, Apple's event is not the sole reason markets rose yesterday. They'll also let us know if we can afford those shiny new things that Apple's dangling in front of us.

Persons: HSI, Nic Coury, I'm, Zers, CNBC's Kelly Evans, They'll, – CNBC's Pia Singh, Lisa Kailai Han Organizations: Apple, AFP, Getty, CNBC, Research, Bloomberg, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial Locations: Cupertino , California, U.S, Cupertino

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Did Apple’s shiny new things uplift markets?
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineMaybe all it takes are shiny new things to lift our mood and take our minds off recession fears. Of course, Apple's event is not the sole reason markets rose yesterday. They'll also let us know if we can afford those shiny new things that Apple's dangling in front of us.

Persons: Pro Max, Justin Sullivan, I'm, Zers, CNBC's Kelly Evans, They'll, – CNBC's Pia Singh, Lisa Kailai Han Organizations: Pro, Apple, Getty, CNBC, Research, Bloomberg, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial Locations: Cupertino , California, U.S, Cupertino

☆ UBS trader turns bearish for next two months, worried about a 'large unwind'
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"I am tactically bearish for the next 2 months," wrote Rebecca Cheong, head of Americas equity derivatives strategy for UBS, in a note. The S & P 500 rapidly rebounded, though, making back most of the losses and approaching a new high once again. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD And September has gotten off to a sour start with the S & P 500 down four of the first five trading days. Other reasons that make the trader bearish: UBS clients have sold stocks 11 of the last 12 days. Cheong suggested hedges that would pay off if the S & P 500 is down 10% in one month and 15% in two months.

Persons: Rebecca Cheong, Cheong Organizations: UBS, Nvidia, Global, Tech, Federal, U.S

☆ Deutsche Bank names Tesla a top pick, says it's in 'a league of its own'
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Hakyung Kim | In Hakyungkim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Deutsche Bank resumed coverage of the U.S. auto industry and named Tesla a top pick in the process. Analyst Edison Yu reinstated Tesla with a buy rating and price target of $295, which indicates 36% upside from Monday's close. "Tesla is in a league of its own and represents our highest conviction secular leader," Yu wrote in a research note on Monday. "Long-term, Tesla is an emerging leader in autonomous driving (robotaxi) and humanoid robots (Optimus) ... which represent some of the most clear and lucrative applications of end-to-end AI." Back in June, CEO Elon Musk claimed Optimus robots could make Tesla a $25 trillion company one day.

Persons: Tesla, Edison Yu, Yu, ", Elon Musk Organizations: Deutsche Bank, U.S Locations: Europe, China

☆ Here are Friday's biggest analyst calls: Nvidia, Peloton, Chewy, Uber, Burlington Stores, BJ's Wholesale Club, Roku and more
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

JPMorgan downgrades Peloton to neutral from overweight "Following Thursday's +35% appreciation (vs. SPX -1%) we are moving from Overweight to Neutral rated as PTON's return to growth in CF Subs & Revenue remains challenging, & visibility is limited given secular & macro pressures." Wells Fargo reiterates Burlington Stores as top pick "We reiterate BURL as our "Top Pick" and see a highly visible growth/margin bull case unfolding in real time. The combination of 1) comp acceleration and 2) margin unlocks should be powerful, and we raise 2Q/FY numbers above Street. Wells Fargo upgrades BJ's Wholesale Club to overweight from equal weight "Margin investment is the right strategic shift despite n/t pain, and supplements robust member gains. Valuation is tricky, but comp ramp/return to algo in '25 point to upside."

Persons: Piper Sandler, Warby Parker, Uber, Nomura, Wells, BURL, Goldman Sachs, Bill.com, Guggenheim Organizations: Nvidia, RBC, Westlake, JPMorgan, CF Subs, Revenue, Bank of America, Waymo, Tesla, Burlington Stores, Wholesale

☆ Next week has historically been a bright spot ahead of a tough market period
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Going back to 1953, the S & P 500 has climbed around 0.5% during the final week of August on a median basis, according to data analyzed by Bespoke Investment Group. That is a bright spot ahead of a historically weak period for the market. September ranks as the worst month on average for the S & P 500 going back to 1950, according to data from the Stock Trader's Almanac. Almanac data shows the S & P 500 is flat on average for the month. .SPX 1M mountain The S & P 500, 1 month The upcoming week also has some events that may move the market in the trading month's final days.

Organizations: Investment Group, Stock, Investors

☆ The 'soft landing' hypothesis is alive and well: What retail sales and Walmart earnings tell us
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-15 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Inflation relief was palpable this week, with both the producer price index and consumer price index reinforcing that inflation is trending down. .SPX 1M mountain S & P 500 Index over the past month. S & P 500 earnings growth of 10% is expected in 2024, and 15% growth is seen for 2025. True, revenue growth hasn't been as strong, and much of the reason earnings are holding up is cost cutting. Growth is slowing, but no recession is apparent Interest rate cuts coming and earnings are still holding up.

Persons: It's, John David Rainey Organizations: Walmart, American Association of, Bulls, Atlanta Fed, CNBC

☆ Wall Street still loves the ‘Magnificent Seven’
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Don't get it twisted: Wall Street's love affair with the "Magnificent Seven" is alive and well. That's a greater gain than what strategists forecast for the S & P 500 as a whole — a gain of 11.9%. This dynamic is seen through the relative outperformance of the equal weighted S & P 500 versus its market cap weighted counterpart. .SPX RSP 1M mountain SPX vs RSP in past month Despite this rotation, Wall Street analysts still believe staying with megacap technology stocks are the better bet. Elsewhere on Wall Street this morning, Stifel upgraded Starbucks to buy from hold after naming Brian Niccol its new CEO.

Persons: Jessica Rabe, DataTrek, Rabe, Stifel, Brian Niccol Organizations: Research, Big Tech, RSP, Wall Street Locations: That's

☆ Here are Tuesday's biggest analyst calls: Netflix, Amazon, Lyft, CrowdStrike, Dell, Disney, Hormel, Eli Lilly, Home Depot & more
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Here are the biggest calls on Wall Street on Tuesday: Wells Fargo initiates Rollins as overweight Wells says it's bullish on shares of the pest control company. Goldman Sachs reiterates Disney as buy Goldman said it's sticking with its buy rating following Disney's biennial D23 fan event in California. " Wells Fargo initiates ITeos Therapeutics at overweight Wells said in its initiation of coverage into ITeos that the biotech company has multiple catalysts ahead. Bank of America reiterates Lyft as buy The bank said the ride sharing company is trading at a "significant discount." Wells Fargo reiterates Home Depot as overweight Wells says investors should buy the dip in Home Depot shares following earnings Tuesday morning.

Persons: Wells, Rollins, it's bullish, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Bernstein, WBD, BTIG, Eli Lilly, Stifel, Lyft Organizations: Wells Fargo, Disney, UBS, JPMorgan, Netflix, Mizuho, Palo Alto, Barclays, Dell, DELL, Citi, Sales, Warner Brothers Discovery, ITeos, " Bank of America, Bank of America, Co, McCormick &, Depot, Amazon Locations: California, Turkey

☆ Investors are banking on the Fed to save stocks and the economy, according to Wall Street survey
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Ninety-three percent of the fund managers in the survey are expecting lower short-term rates in the next 12 months, marking the highest percentage in the past 24 years, BofA said. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 Only 31% of fund managers are overweight stocks now, down from 51% in July, the survey showed. Global growth expectations are at their lowest in 8 months with about half of respondents expecting weaker growth the next 12 months, the survey showed. Still, the majority of investors (76%) expect the Fed to engineer a soft landing, up from 68% last month, the survey said. The August survey from BofA captured the sentiment of 220 respondents with $590 billion in assets under management.

Persons: BofA, Michael Hartnett Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ Don't get too excited about this latest inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Stocks had a strong showing Tuesday after the latest U.S. wholesale inflation report came out. In other words, just because PPI rose less than expected, it doesn't mean investors should expect a tame CPI report on Wednesday. "Financial markets seem to react too much every month to PPI," said Stanley, the bank's chief economist. " The S & P 500 closed Tuesday's session nearly 2% higher, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.4%. The major averages are now well above the lows seen in Aug. 5, when the Dow and S & P 500 suffered their biggest one-day pullbacks since 2022.

Persons: Stocks, Stephen Stanley, Stanley, Dow, David Russell, We're Organizations: ISI, PPI, Santander U.S, CPI, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial

☆ The bottom is not in so take profits on any bounce, says BTIG
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

BTIG's chief market technician warned Sunday that, while the pullback seen early last week generated some "tactical buy signals," he thinks the "bulk of the bounce has likely run its course and [we] would use strength … to lighten exposure." However, the broad market index clawed back most of that decline by Friday, posting a weekly loss of just 0.04%. .SPX 1M mountain SPX 1-month chart "A final durable low is likely still ahead of us," Krinksy said. The big event this week will be the release of the consumer price index reading for July, due Wednesday. "We see LLY stock outperforming for its high growth outlook and low beta," the Deutsche analyst added, while calling the drugmaker a "low beta/high growth unicorn."

Persons: Jonathan Krinsky doesn't, Krinsky, Krinksy, Eric Johnston, Cantor Fitzgerald, Lori Calvasina, Scott Rubner, Goldman Sachs, Eli Lilly Organizations: JPMorgan, RBC Capital Markets, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche

☆ S&P 500 may struggle in the next two months, according to history of past volatility spikes
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Bank of America found that the S & P 500 typically is lower two months after the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) spikes above 45. In the eight weeks after such a volatility surge, the S & P 500 is higher only 40% of the time and loses 0.72% on a median basis, BofA data shows. Typically, the broad market index gains 66% of the time and advances 1.95% on a median basis. Roughly three months after a Vix spike, the broad market index is higher 80% of the time, gaining 5.17% on a median basis, per BofA. One year later, the S & P 500 is up 80% of the time, rallying 18.18% on a median basis.

Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, it's Organizations: Bank of America Securities . Bank of America, BofA Securities

☆ Markets just had the most volatile week since the pandemic outbreak — What we learned
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-10 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A wild week of trading on Wall Street ended with the S & P 500 back roughly where it started, but the lessons learned by whipsawed investors over those five days could determine what happens next. The S & P 500 had its worst day since 2022 on Monday, and then its best since 2022 on Thursday. But with the S & P 500 ending the week down less than 0.1% in a calm session on Friday, the market seems to have stabilized. .SPX 5D mountain The S & P 500 finished the week nearly flat. And I think that has to do with investors really being a little bit skeptical about some of this equity market volatility."

Persons: Tim Hayes, Ned Davis, Gennadiy Goldberg, didn't, Jeremy Schwartz, Peter Berezin, aren't, Wellington, Frank Gretz, RJ O'Brien, Tom Fitzpatrick, Fitzpatrick Organizations: Wall, Treasury, Ned, Ned Davis Research, TD Securities, CNBC, Japan —, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, BCA Research, Wellington Shields, Associates Locations: Japan

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