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A strong dollar typically weighs on oil prices as it makes the commodity more expensive for holders of other currencies, dampening demand for crude. Oil prices in September hit 10-month highs as Saudi Arabia and Russia cut a combined 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of supply until the end of the year. Oil prices are currently high in part in response to the OPEC+ cuts. This supply shock is expected to dampen consumer purchasing power, weigh on economic growth and eventually depress oil demand, JP Morgan analysts said. And given high interest rates in key Western economies, the combination of relatively high oil prices and the strong dollar cannot last for a long time, said Saxobank analyst Ole Hansen.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Brent, Colin Asher, Francesco Pesole, Morgan, Ole Hansen, Tamas Varga, PVM, Simon Webb, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, U.S ., Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Mizuho, U.S . Federal Reserve, ING, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Russia, Israel, Palestinian

"The most serious outcome for crude is that the conflict escalates into a more devastating proxy war which could affect crude supply," said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth US. Israel's port of Ashkelon and its oil terminal have been shut in the wake of the conflict, sources said. Goldman Sachs said the conflict reduced the likelihood of normalization of Israel's relations with Saudi Arabia, and the associated boost to Saudi production over time. The conflict is likely to lead to higher volatility and speculation in oil markets, the CEO of Brazil's Petrobras (PETR4.SA) said. High oil price due to the conflict could bolster inflation, analysts said, forcing rate hikes that could dampen demand.

Persons: recouping, Brent, WTI, Israel, Rebecca Babin, Agustin Marcarian, Goldman Sachs, Caroline Bain, Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen, Nicolas Maduro, Arathy Somasekhar, Natalie Grover, Andrew Hayley, Emily Chow, Kirsten Donovan, Lisa Shumaker, David Gregorio Our Organizations: HOUSTON, . West Texas, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Hamas, CIBC Private Wealth, Israel, REUTERS, Saudi, Analysts, Capital Economics, U.S, Petrobras, PETR4, Thomson Locations: Saudi, Israel, Ashkelon, Israel US, Venezuela, Palestinian, Gaza, Saudi Arabia, Washington, Riyadh, Vaca, Patagonian, Neuquen, Argentina, Moscow, U.S, Iran, Russia, Caracas, Mexico, Tel Aviv, Houston, London, Beijing, Singapore

Oct 9 (Reuters) - Fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East are threatening more volatility for investors after a painful stretch in U.S. markets. Investors were on guard for the potential of the conflict spreading to embroil other countries, including Iran, and a continued spike in oil prices. Prices for gold, a popular destination for investors during uncertain times, were up 1.2% at $1,854.10 per ounce. Among those is the potential of a rebound in oil prices that could weigh on U.S. economic growth and endanger the so-called soft landing narrative that has helped boost stocks this year. “The worst-case scenario from a geopolitical risk perspective would be a full-scale confrontation between Israel and Iran,” said Tina Fordham, geopolitical strategist and founder of Fordham Global Foresight.

Persons: Brent, ”, Mohit Kumar, Tina Fordham, Paul Nolte, Emmanuel Cau, Althea Spinozzi, Naomi Rovnick, Lewis Krauskopf, Dhara Ranasinghe, Davide Barbuscia, Noel Randewich, Marc Jones, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Jefferies, Fordham Global Foresight, Federal Reserve, Murphy, Sylvest Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Treasury, Barclays, Mobileye, Intel, Solaredge Technologies, East, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Gaza, Iran, Europe, London, Israel, United States, Germany

Brent crude was up $3.24, or 3.8%, to $87.85 a barrel by 11 a.m. ET (1500 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $86.19 a barrel, up $3.40 or about 4.1%. Oil rigs are seen at Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas drilling, in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina January 21, 2019. Analysts suggested the implications of the conflict could include a potential slowdown in Iranian exports, which have grown significantly this year, despite U.S. sanctions. Any production and export disruption would exacerbate supply tightness as most analysts expect markets to be in a deficit in the second half of the year.

Persons: recouping, Brent, WTI, Tudor Pickering, Matt Portillo, Agustin Marcarian, Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen, Caroline Bain, Arathy Somasekhar, Natalie Grover, Andrew Hayley, Emily Chow, Kirsten Donovan, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: U.S, West Texas, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Saturday, REUTERS, Israel, White, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Saudi, Israel, HOUSTON, Palestinian, Holt, Gaza, Vaca, Patagonian, Neuquen, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Washington, Riyadh, Moscow, Russia, U.S, Iran, Houston, London, Beijing, Singapore

☆ One $16 bln deal travels lonely dual track
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( Jonathan Guilford | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, Oct 9 (Reuters Breakingviews) - When courting buyers, sellers like to make it seem as if there are plenty of options. So it is with buyout firms GTCR and Apax Partners as they explore ways to cash in on AssuredPartners, the insurance broker they own together. This parallel process, colloquially called a dual track, can build competitive tension to wheedle a higher price, but it’s too soon for the idea to pose a plausible threat. For example, cybersecurity provider AppDynamics was planning an IPO that would have valued it at around $2 billion in late 2016. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsHigher interest rates have made it harder to borrow and for buyers and sellers to agree on valuations.

Persons: it’s, AppDynamics, Apax, AssuredPartners, GTCR, Jeffrey Goldfarb, Sharon Lam, Aditya Sriwatsav Organizations: Reuters, Apax Partners, Cisco Systems, Bloomberg, Reuters Graphics, Cisco, SoftBank, Thomson Locations: AssuredPartners

While most traders are waiting on the sidelines, anxious about the election and unsure of libertarian frontrunner Javier Milei, some daring bond investors are moving in. "There has been a lot of pain from being invested in Argentina over the past decade," Reed said. Rob Citrone, founder of U.S.-based hedge fund Discovery Capital Management, said Argentina presented one of the best opportunities in emerging markets. The depressed values offer another reason to be bullish on Argentina's debt, said Thomas Haugaard, a portfolio manager on the emerging markets debt hard currency team at Janus Henderson Investments in Copenhagen. Armando Armenta, an analyst for Latin American fixed-income and currency markets at AllianceBernstein in New York, said it was a mixed picture.

Persons: Javier Milei, Cristina Sille, Milei, Patricia Bullrich, Sergio Massa, Christine Reed, Reed, Bullrich, Mauricio Macri's, Massa, Rob Citrone, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, Fernandez de Kirchner, Thomas Haugaard, Janus Henderson, Haugaard, Morgan Stanley, Armando Armenta, Milei's, Rodrigo Campos, Carolina Mandl, Adam Jourdan, Paul Simao Organizations: Argentine, REUTERS, Peronist, International Monetary Fund, U.S, Discovery Capital Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, BancTrust, Reuters, Janus, Janus Henderson Investments, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, New York, Ghana, Sri Lanka, Copenhagen, Congress, AllianceBernstein

S&P 500 (.SPX) companies overall are expected to have increased earnings by 1.3% from a year ago, according to LSEG IBES. After a rough September for stocks, "we need some good news" from earnings season, said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. Inflation dampened company earnings in the first half, after consumer prices surged in 2022 to their highest levels in decades. Investors will also scrutinize company fourth-quarter outlooks, with S&P 500 earnings for the fourth quarter currently expected to rise 10.8% from a year earlier. One clue could come from the consumer discretionary sector (.SPLRCD), where earnings are expected to have jumped by 23.1% from the year-ago period.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, LSEG, Matthew Miskin, You've, you've, Miskin, Rick Meckler, John Hancock, J.P, Morgan Chase, James Ragan, Davidson, Ragan, ”, Oliver Pursche, Caroline Valetkevitch, Lewis Krauskopf, Megan Davies, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, John Hancock Investment Management, Cherry, Investments, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo, UnitedHealth, Wealthspire Advisors, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Westport , Connecticut

☆ The Buenos Aires barber's books: a history of 19,900% inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-07 | by ( Adam Jourdan | Thomson Reuters | Regional Bureau Chief In South Latin America With Previous Experience Leading Corporate News Coverage In China | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian Acquire Licensing RightsBUENOS AIRES, Oct 7 (Reuters) - The hand-written entries in the two dozen notebooks - date, haircut, price - chronicle decades of a Buenos Aires barber's working life. A price of 15 pesos equaled $15 with the currency peg. In her first term the haircut price rose 117%, speeding to 200% in her second term. Haircut prices rose 133% in his four years. The earliest health insurance bill he has was 798 pesos in 2007, since when it has hit 142,636 pesos, outstripping his haircut prices.

Persons: Barber Ruben Galante, Luciano Munoz, Agustin Marcarian, Ruben Galante, Alberto Fernandez, it's, Galante, Javier Milei, he's, Carlos Menem, Raul Alfonsin, Fernando de la Rua, de la Rua, Nestor Kirchner, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, Nestor's, Mauricio Macri, That's, Milei, Patricia Bullrich, Sergio Massa, Luciano Muñoz, Diego Maradona, Lionel Messi, Adam Jourdan, Eliana Raszewski, Prinz, Claudia Parsons Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Currency, Reuters Graphics, Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, BUENOS AIRES, Belgrano, United States

"Our strike is working, but we’re not there yet," UAW President Shawn Fain said in a livestreamed update on negotiations with the three automakers. Threatening to strike against GM's Arlington, Texas, plant that makes cash-cow SUVs like the Cadillac Escalade spurred GM to agree that EV battery factories would become union plants with UAW contracts, Fain said. GM is building three Ultium joint-venture battery plants with South Korea's LG Energy Solution (373220.KS). GM is building a fourth U.S. battery plant with Samsung SDI (006400.KS) in Indiana. Fain also said on Friday that the UAW could still strike against highly profitable pickup truck plants if progress stalls.

Persons: Rebecca Cook, General Motors, we’re, Shawn Fain, GM's, Fain, Sam Fiorani, Ultium, Harley Shaiken, Jim Farley, Ford, Stellantis, Mark Stewart, Tesla, Elon, we've, walkouts, Joe White, David Shepardson, Abhirup Roy, Dan Burns, Ben Klayman, Abhijith, David Gaffen, Peter Henderson, Nick Zieminski, Matthew Lewis Organizations: United Auto Workers, General Motors Lansing Delta, Michigan U.S, REUTERS, Detroit Three, UAW GM, UAW, GM, Ford, Detroit, General, Ford Motor, Chrysler, EV, AutoForecast Solutions, Korea's LG Energy, Democratic U.S, Samsung SDI, University of California, LG, Samsung, American, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Delta Township, Michigan, DETROIT, GM's Arlington , Texas, U.S, Ohio, Indiana, Berkeley, Milan, Detroit, Washington

☆ US bond funds suffer outflows on rate worries; money market funds gain traction
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 6 (Reuters) - U.S. bond funds saw significant outflows in the week ending Oct. 4, driven by concerns about prolonged elevated interest rates, while money market funds garnered substantial inflows as investors recalibrated their risk exposure amid a bond market sell-off. According to LSEG data, investors offloaded U.S. bond funds worth a net $6.34 billion during the week, the biggest amount since Dec. 21, 2022. Money market funds meanwhile, received about $43.15 billion in inflows, the highest since April 26, 2023. Investors exited equity growth funds worth $2.05 billion and value funds worth $1.23 billion. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsNotably, consumer staples, healthcare and consumer discretionary sectors observed net outflows of $637 million, $461 million and $397 million, respectively.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, outflows, Gaurav Dogra, Patturaja, William Maclean Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru

☆ Bond rout won't end Fed balance sheet cuts, but endgame bubbling into view
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Since June 2022, the Fed has allowed more than $1 trillion of bonds to mature from its portfolio, including roughly $840 billion of Treasuries. QT drains liquidity from the banking system, reducing bank reserves parked at the Fed and cash stashed in its reverse repo facility. Others believe money market rates will start to move up in ways suggesting the system is short of cash. A New York Fed report in April projected an end to QT around the middle of 2025. A survey of major banks by the New York Fed released in August eyed an end to QT in mid-2024.

Persons: it's, ”, Kathy Bostjancic, Bostjancic, Goldman Sachs, Loretta Mester, “, Austan Goolsbee, Mary Daly, Michael Barr, Michael Cloherty, Mark Cabana, ” Cabana, Cabana, Michael S, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Goldman Sachs, Federal Reserve, Silicon Valley Bank, Fed, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, Chicago Fed, San Francisco Fed, UBS, Bank Policy Institute, New York Fed, Bank of America, Daily, Derby, Thomson Locations: Silicon, Washington

A video address by Fain is scheduled for 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) and will cover substantive bargaining updates, people familiar with the UAW's plans said. In the UAW version, the winner offers richer contract terms, and gets a week without a new strike. Fain's Friday video addresses have become must-see events since he launched coordinated strikes at GM, Ford and Stellantis plants shortly after midnight on Sept. 15. So far, the union has ordered walkouts at five assembly plants and 38 parts depots operated by GM and Stellantis. Last Friday, Fain called off a strike planned at one of Stellantis' assembly plants after the automaker delivered new proposals minutes before the scheduled start of his talk.

Persons: Shawn Fain, Fain, Tesla, Elon, Ford, walkouts, Joe White, Matthew Lewis Organizations: DETROIT, United Auto Workers, Detroit Three, Detroit, Detroit automakers, Facebook, UAW, General Motors, Ford Motor, Chrysler, GM, Ford, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Detroit

[1/2] An employee hiring sign is seen in a window of a business in Arlington, Virginia, U.S., April 7, 2023. The report will be released at 8:30 a.m. (1230 GMT), based on surveys conducted before a United Auto Workers strike could influence the outcome. "We think the Fed would like to see a bit more evidence of cooling labor market conditions than we expect," Oxford Economics lead U.S. economist Nancy Vanden Houten wrote this week. But she said that wage gains were likely to prove a bit stronger than the month before. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Nancy Vanden Houten, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Wage, Fed, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, Oxford

How the $13 trillion economy's slowdown will affect other emerging markets is still an unanswered question for investors. "Lower for longer Chinese growth is shaping a new regime of investments," Amundi's head of emerging markets Yerlan Syzdykov told Reuters. The World Bank trimmed its 2024 China growth forecast to 4.4% from 4.8%. 6/DEVELOPING REFORMThe World Bank, IMF and other multilateral development banks are under pressure to boost lending to poorer countries to fund development and tackle climate change. China and other large emerging economies have long demanded a greater say in the global financial architecture, which is still dominated by parameters set out by the 1944 Bretton Woods meeting, where the IMF and World Bank were established.

Persons: Abdelhak, Joseph Cuthbertson, Syzdykov, Anna Gelpern, Gregory Smith, Smith, Mehmet Simsek, Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, drubbing, Timothy Ash, Jorgelina, Rosario, Rachel Savage, Marc Jones, Karin Strohecker, Christina Fincher Organizations: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Palais des, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, International Monetary, PineBridge Investments, Reuters, Bank, Ukraine, U.S, Kyiv, Paris Club, IMF, American, London, G Investments, JPMorgan, Egypt IMF, Fitch, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Finance, BlueBay Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Palais, Palais des Congres, Marrakech, Morocco, Argentina, Pakistan, Kenya, Egypt, CHINA, China, UKRAINE, Ukraine, Zambia, Sri Lanka, Ghana, Georgetown, Nigeria, TURKEY, Ankara, New York, Washington, London, Woods

☆ Dating apps can embrace gamification of hookups
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Lauren Silva Laughlin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dating app Tinder is shown on a mobile phone in this picture illustration taken September 1, 2020. The dating app owned by Match (MTCH.O) said last week it’s rolling out a subscription tier called “Tinder Select” that will cost $500 a month. The $12 billion company could make even more money if it approached hookups the way computer games hook users. By contrast, if a hefty 1% of Tinder’s current subscribers sign up for Tinder Select, they will pay an extra $600 million. Follow @thereallsl on XCONTEXT NEWSMatch’s dating app Tinder is launching a premium service named “Tinder Select” for $499 a month.

Persons: Akhtar Soomro, Bernard Kim, Tinder, Peter Thal Larsen, Sharon Lam, Aditya Sriwatsav Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Match, Apps, Tinder, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Plenty

Lhonak Lake in Sikkim state overflowed on Wednesday, causing major flooding that authorities said had impacted the lives of 22,000 people. The latest flooding was exacerbated by water released from state-run NHPC's Teesta V dam, local officials said. As of Thursday evening, 98 people were missing, 17 of whom were army personnel, state chief secretary V.B. "Due to bad weather conditions we cannot have air service towards the northern part of the state," Rai told Reuters. [1/4]An area affected by the flood is seen in this undated handout image released on October 4, 2023, in Sikkim, India.

Persons: V.B, Pathak, Prabhakar Rai, Rai, G.T, Dhungel, Subrata Nag Choudhury, Jatindra, Tanvi Mehta, Krishn Kaushik, Sarita Chaganti Singh, Ruma Paul, Rajendra Jadhav, YP Rajesh, Robert Birsel, Michael Perry, Kim Coghill, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: NEW, Authorities, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Disaster Management Authority, Reuters, India Army, REUTERS Acquire, Army, National Disaster Management Agency, Nature Communications, YP, Thomson Locations: NEW DELHI, KOLKATA, India, Sikkim, Asia's, Bangladesh, Chungthang, Mangan, Gangtok, Nepal, Bhutan, China, Siliguri, West Bengal, Pakistan, Peru, Kolkata, Bhubaneswar, New Delhi

☆ China is swing factor in diesel’s global squeeze
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Yawen Chen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

As demand enters peak season, Xi’s ability to dictate how much Chinese oil companies export looks like the key swing factor. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsGlobally, demand for diesel and gasoil is around 28 million barrels per day (bpd), according to the International Energy Agency. Of the world’s 8 million bpd export flows, Russia exported on average 1 million bpd in the nine months to September, according to consultancy Vortexa. Even so, China last year overtook the United States as the world’s biggest refiner, with total refining capacity of 18.4 million bpd. That would limit Chinese exports to below 400,000 bpd, according to Vortexa, adding to tightness elsewhere.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Xi, Sun, Brent, George Hay, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, International Energy Agency, Longzhong, Bloomberg, Thomson Locations: Saudi, U.S, Singapore, El, Russia, Vortexa, China, United States, Europe, Beijing, Moscow

☆ SPAC shell games will keep hiding the ball
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Jeffrey Goldfarb | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

It’s more or less how another 216 companies backed into public markets in 2021, according to SPAC Research. They’re on track to miss the mark by more than 40%, delivering only about $55 billion, according to recent forecasts compiled by LSEG. The electric-vehicle industry, for one, was a serial SPAC user whose exuberance sputtered badly. Dressing them up as acquisitions of private firms by listed shell companies enables the participants to play by looser rules. SPAC investors buy shares in the empty vessel before its sponsor and takeover target agree on a valuation.

Persons: Vishal Garg, Better’s, Breakingviews, SPACs, ”, Joel Rubinstein, Donald Trump’s, Spruce, Woodruff Sawyer, Gary Gensler, Ellis, Gensler, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam Organizations: Reuters, & Finance, Research, LSEG, Polestar Automotive, White, The Securities, Exchange Commission, XL Fleet, SEC, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Case, Kirkland, U.S . Securities, Financial Services, Thomson

☆ Siemens is case study in China de-risking dilemma
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Pamela Barbaglia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

That’s unsettling for the likes of Siemens, $62 billion carmaker Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) and $39 billion chemicals group BASF (BASFn.DE). Factor in the German group’s 32% stake in Siemens Energy (ENR1n.DE) and 75% holding in Siemens Healthineers (SHLG.DE), currently worth 46 billion euros, and it adds up to 156 billion euros. The unit and Siemens’ Airport Logistics unit, which press reports say could be another divestment candidate, may only be worth 4 billion euros combined. Moreover, Kaeser already tried to boost Siemens’ valuation by partially spinning off subsidiaries. As of September, Siemens had bought back 2.5 billion euros of shares since starting a 3 billion euro share repurchase programme in November 2021.

Persons: Roland Busch, France’s Legrand, Busch, Joe Kaeser, he’s, Kaeser, Germany’s Bundesbank, Siemens, Goldman Sachs, Judith Wiese, George Hay, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Siemens, Germany’s, Barclays, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Volkswagen, BASF, Software, Dassault, Automation, ABB, Smart Infrastructure, Siemens Energy, Siemens ’ Mobility, France’s Alstom, CRRC Corporation, Siemens ’ Airport Logistics, Siemens Healthineers, Toshiba Corp, Energy, BNP, Bloomberg, Financial Times, Thomson Locations: China, Brussels, Beijing, Germany, EMEA, Swiss, Middle Kingdom, Republic, Shenzhen, Sichuan, Chengdu, Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand

☆ Morning Bid: This Fed's not for turning
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The U.S. Federal Reserve building is pictured in Washington, March 18, 2008. That thought was echoed by Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester, who said: "I suspect we may well need to raise the fed funds rate once more this year." Either way, this is not the sound of a Fed who thinks the inflation battle is won. Fed hawkishness, however, has kept futures markets pricing a 50-50 chance of another quarter point rate hike to the 5.50-5.75% range by year-end. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Jason Reed, Mike Dolan, they've, Michelle Bowman, Loretta Mester, Michael Barr, hawkishness, Raphael Bostic, Susan Fenton Organizations: U.S . Federal, REUTERS, Reserve, Cleveland Fed, Institute, Supply, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Big Tech, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Treasury, McCormick, PMI, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington, U.S

[1/2] A worker clears debris so delivery vehicles can exit a FedEx Ground distribution center in this aerial photograph taken over Carson, California, U.S., September 16, 2022. "They have to fight for every package right now, it's great for shippers," said LJM Consultants partner Kenneth Moyer, a former UPS pricing negotiator who now works with delivery customers. The world's biggest parcel delivery firm added it is using price negotiations to encourage attractive high-margin or high-volume customers, while discouraging high-cost deliveries. Third quarter ground delivery rates are forecast to fall 0.55% per package versus a the year earlier period, according to the TD Cowen/AFS Ground Pacrel Freight Index. But experts are skeptical, particularly as UPS offers to cover early termination fees for customers that switched to FedEx.

Persons: Bing Guan, That's, Kenneth Moyer, Deyman Doolittle, Wall, Moyer, Mark Taylor, Taylor, Satish Jindel, ShipMatrix, Micheal McDonagh, Yokeley, Lisa Baertlein, Ben Klayman, Aurora Ellis Organizations: FedEx, REUTERS, United Parcel Service, UPS, U.S . Postal Service, LJM, Cowen, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Teamster, Department, USPS, Amazon, AFS Logistics, International Brotherhood of Teamsters, Teamsters, Thomson Locations: Carson , California, U.S, Macy's, Los Angeles

☆ Germany risks letting a good crisis go to waste
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Pierre Briancon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Germany, the European Union’s largest economy and its traditional growth engine, is headed towards a contraction this year. Exports account for more than half of Germany’s GDP, compared to just a third in France and 37% in Italy, according to the World Bank. Germany’s growth potential is estimated at an annual 0.7% over the medium term by the Scope rating agency, about half the euro zone average. Exempting net public investment from the debt brake rule would help to reverse years of underspending. Unless they do, Europe’s leading economy risks letting a good crisis go to waste.

Persons: –, Hubertus Bardt, Germany’s, Carsten Brzeski, Oliver Rakau, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner’s, Sebastian Dullien, Scholz, Destatis, Francesco Guerrera, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, World Bank, EU, International Monetary Fund, Reuters Graphics Reuters, German Economic Institute, ING, Oxford Economics, BASF, Finance, Christian Democrats, Thomson Locations: Germany, Berlin, France, Italy, China –, Spain, Weimar Republic, China, Ukraine

[1/2] SMER-SSD party leader Robert Fico arrives to the party's headquarters after the country's early parliamentary elections, in Bratislava, Slovakia, October 1, 2023. Caputova, a liberal who has a tense relationship with Fico, a three-time former prime minister, will first make a 2 p.m. statement on the election outcome. Fico and his SMER-SSD party won nearly 23% of the vote on Saturday, ahead of liberal challenger Progresivne Slovensko (Progressive Slovakia, PS) with 18%. HLAS, led by Fico's former colleague and prime minister Peter Pellegrini, could also support a potential PS-led coalition if negotiations with SMER fail. Fico's pledge, however, may have limited practical impact as analysts say Slovakia has already provided much of what it could spare.

Persons: Robert Fico, Radovan Stoklasa, Fico, Zuzana Caputova, Progresivne Slovensko, Fico's, Peter Pellegrini, Reuters Graphics Fico, Viktor Orban, Pellegrini, Jason Hovet, Jan Lopatka, Andrew Heavens, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: REUTERS, Ukraine Won, Russian Slovak National Party, SNS, SMER, Reuters Graphics, European Union, Russia's, Hungarian, Law and Justice, Brussels, NATO, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Bratislava, Slovakia, Ukraine, Progressive Slovakia, SMER, Russian, Hungary, European, Russia, Europe, Slovak

Consumer price inflation rose for the second straight month, to 3.7% in August versus 3.2% in July. While the overall picture is somewhat mixed, the inflation data in recent months likely doesn't change the policy outlook. Reuters GraphicsRETAIL SALES (Released Sept. 14, next release Oct. 17):Retail sales rose more than expected in August, increasing 0.6%. Investors viewed the overall data as leaning against any further Fed rate increases. Weekly data on bank lending shows bank credit has fallen on a year-over-year basis since the middle of July.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, University of Michigan, Reuters Graphics, Investors, Labor, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Silicon

"We know that the British economy recovered faster from the pandemic than anyone previously thought and data out today once again proves the doubters wrong," finance minister Jeremy Hunt said. And that's before the full drag from higher interest rates has been felt," said Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics. The upward revisions were concentrated in 2020 and 2021, during the height of the pandemic and immediate aftermath. Growth in 2021 was revised to 8.7% from 7.6%, while the size of 2020's historic slump was reduced to 10.4% from 11.0%, in line with preliminary guidance on Sept. 1. Growth in 2022 was revised up to 4.3% from 4.1%.

Persons: Rachel Adams, Jeremy Hunt, Ruth Gregory, Thomas Pugh, Capital's Gregory, David Milliken, Andy Bruce, William James, Toby Chopra Organizations: Oxford, REUTERS, National Statistics, European Union, Capital Economics, The Bank of England, RSM, Reuters Graphics Reuters, ONS, Thomson Locations: Britain, London, Germany, France, United States, Japan, Italy, Canada, Ukraine

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