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Dave Sekera, chief US market strategist at Morningstar, says that he’s watching for insights on banks’ delinquency rates. Consumers have increasingly fallen behind on or missed payments in recent months as they get squeezed by high interest rates. But banks could see higher losses compared to 2023 if the economy were to experience a downturn, the Fed warned. Investors are wagering that the central bank will begin easing rates as soon as September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. “The worst outcome for all of us is what you call stagflation: higher rates and recession,” Dimon said in an interview with CNBC.
Persons: Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Dave Sekera, Stocks, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Matt Egan, it’s, , Joe Brusuelas, Mark Zandi, ” Zandi, , Jerome Powell, Erika Tulfo, “ It’s, Neil Saunders, Abrigo, Gen Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, United, United States ’, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Morningstar, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, JPMorgan, CNBC, Federal, RSM, , Moody’s, CNN, GlobalData, Apple Locations: New York, United States, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, China
Dollar adrift ahead of U.S. inflation test; sterling firms
  + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar fell a touch on Thursday although moves were largely subdued ahead of a U.S. inflation report due later in the day, while sterling firmed on receding expectations for an August rate cut from the Bank of England (BoE). The dollar fell a touch on Thursday although moves were largely subdued ahead of a U.S. inflation report due later in the day, while sterling firmed on receding expectations for an August rate cut from the Bank of England. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill on Wednesday said price pressures in Britain's economy were persistent and that the timing of a first rate cut was an "open question". His colleague Catherine Mann signalled she is unlikely to vote for an interest rate cut in August. Against the greenback, the euro gained 0.04% to $1.0834, and the Aussie dollar rose 0.01% to $0.6754.
Persons: BoE, Huw Pill, Catherine Mann, Carol Kong, Jerome Powell Organizations: Bank of England, Monetary, ANZ, MPC, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Federal Reserve, U.S, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Bank of Japan Locations: U.S, Asia, Japan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Big change in language' from the RBNZ signals dovish tilt, economist saysPhilip O'Donaghoe of Deutsche Bank discusses the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to hold its cash rate.
Persons: Philip O'Donaghoe Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Reserve Bank of New
The New Zealand dollar edged higher ahead of the central bank's rate decision, with traders on alert for any signals on the timing for policy easing. In the first day of his testimony to Congress overnight, Powell said a rate cut is not appropriate until the Fed gains "greater confidence" inflation is headed toward the 2% inflation target. Traders lay about 73% odds for a rate cut by September, slipping from 76% a day earlier. New Zealand's kiwi added 0.1% to $0.6131, but staying mostly flat this week after pulling back sharply from Monday's three-week high of $0.6171. "If they do, financial markets could fully price the first RBNZ rate cut in October, from November at present," spurring a retreat in the kiwi to NZ$1.1031 per Aussie dollar, she added.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Taylor Nugent, Kristina Clifton Organizations: Federal, New Zealand, Fed, Traders, National Australia Bank, Reserve Bank of New, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Aussie, NZ Locations: Reserve Bank of New Zealand
In today's big story, we're looking at how new AI tools are helping workers bluff their way through interviews . Some people have built homemade AI tools to help interviewees, releasing them online for free. A startup developing AI-powered tools for job seekers, Final Round AI offers an AI résumé builder, a cover letter writing service, and a mock interview tool. He's not the only one looking to AI to change the interview process. Others say banning AI chatbots in interviews is like prohibiting calculators during math tests — if workers can use the tech in their jobs, why not in the interview process, too?
Persons: , I'm Jordan Parker Erb, Dan DeFrancesco, Alo, They're, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Rob Price, Michael Guan, He's, Rebecca Zisser, Rob, BI's Melia Russell, Melia, Guan, Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin, Powell, Chip Somodevilla, Joe Biden's, Howard, Alan Howard's, Brevan Howard, Tyler Le, Francisco's, Leonid Shteyn, execs, Joe Arden, Joe Biden, Harvey Weinstein, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Annie Smith, Amanda Yen, Lisa Ryan Organizations: Service, Business, Reserve Bank, Markets, Getty, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Apple, of America, Paramount, NATO, Prosecutors Locations: Silicon Valley, Washington , DC, U.S, New York, London
“We’d also like to see the labor market remain strong. For years, the Fed had been watching the job market for a different reason. Officials had worried that if conditions in the labor market remained too tight for too long, with employers fighting to hire and paying ever-rising wages to attract workers, it could help keep inflation faster than usual. But recently, job openings have come down and wage growth has abated, signals that the job market is cooling from its boil. “Future labor market slowing could translate into higher unemployment, as firms need to adjust not just vacancies but actual jobs.”
Persons: Jerome H, Powell, “ We’d, We’ve, Mary C, Daly, Organizations: Wall Street, Federal Reserve Bank of San Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
You can opt-out at any time by visiting our Preferences page or by clicking "unsubscribe" at the bottom of the email. download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. People are still spending money, but there's an uncomfortable awareness that years of price hikes mean each dollar doesn't go as far as it used to. "This consumer remains very cautious, specifically when you think about larger ticket discretionary purchases," he told Oppenheimer analysts Wednesday. "Why have people who are having a hard time paying their rent have to pay more for our drink?"
Persons: , they're, Joseph Lewis, Marvin Ellison, Oppenheimer, John David Rainey, Federal Reserve Banks, San Francisco Fed, Don Vultaggio Organizations: Service, Business, Bloomberg, Nike, Walgreens, Walmart, Federal Reserve, San Francisco, Philadelphia Fed, Iced Tea Locations: San Francisco, Philadelphia
Rapid7 Managed Threat Complete is the company's flagship offering, and it includes the Rapid7 Managed Detection and Response program. Activist Commentary: Jana is a very experienced activist investor founded in 2001 by Barry Rosenstein. The firm made its name taking deeply researched activist positions with well-conceived plans for long term value. Rapid7 is a cybersecurity company that expands the expertise of its clients' security operations. In addition, to shift from pure growth to a profitable software company, Rapid7 has focused on meeting targets for $160 million in free cash flow and improved margins.
Persons: Rapid7, Jana, Barry Rosenstein, Rosenstein, Tenable, It's, Corey Thomas, Cannae, Bradstreet, Ken Squire Organizations: VM, National Security Telecommunications Advisory, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Foreign Relations, of Massachusetts, LPL Financial, Vanderbilt University, Francisco Partners, Sumo, Cannae Holdings, 13D Locations: Splunk, Rapid7
Add to that the noise surrounding the US election, and it could be a rougher second half. Central Banks in Canada and the eurozone have both cut interest rates, but inflation rose in both of those regions last month. Australia, meanwhile, saw its inflation rate rise to 4% this week, stoking fears that the Reserve Bank of Australia could soon move to raise rates again. It was already well known that no documentation was found to show who worked on the door plug. Without the bolts, the door plug incident was pretty much inevitable.
Persons: London CNN —, they’ve, Michelle Bowman, she’s, Mary Daly, Austan Goolsbee, stoking, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, , José Torres, Torres, wouldn’t, Joseph Stiglitz, Trump, Trump’s, Max, , Al Michaels, Michaels, Peacock, ” Michaels, , CNN Michaels, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, London CNN, Federal Reserve, foibles, San Francisco Fed, Chicago Fed, Central Banks, Reserve Bank of Australia, Interactive Brokers, Treasury, Trump, Peterson Institute, Oxford Economics, Allianz, CNN, Boeing, Alaska, Alaska Airlines, National Transportation Safety Board, Alaska Air, NBC, Summer Games, Olympics Locations: London, Canada, Australia, Renton , Washington, Paris,
A seller is arranging onions at a vegetable market in Nagaon district, in the northeastern state of Assam, India, on February 1, 2024. This report is from this week's CNBC's "Inside India" newsletter which brings you timely, insightful news and market commentary on the emerging powerhouse and the big businesses behind its meteoric rise. Food prices, which rose an annual 8.7% in both April and May, account for nearly half of the overall consumer price basket. "The Indian economy remains hostage to intersecting food price shocks," Michael Patra, deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of India, said in his statement at the latest monetary policy meeting. "Food prices are holding back any consideration of possible changes in the monetary policy stance," he added.
Persons: Michael Patra, Jayanth Varma, bode, Sanjeev Chopra, Narendra Modi, abate, James Thom Organizations: CNBC, Reserve Bank of India, New, New India Investment Trust Locations: Nagaon district, Assam, India, New India, London
Sydney Harbour taking in the Harbour Bridge, Opera House and ferries at sunrise during the COVID-19 pandemic on April 20, 2020 in Sydney, Australia. Asia-Pacific markets mostly opened lower Wednesday as investors anticipate Australia's inflation numbers for May and Singapore's May manufacturing output data. Australia's weighted inflation rate is expected to come in at 3.8% in May, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The reading comes after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michelle Bullock recently revealed the central bank discussed hiking rates at its last meeting. The RBA has two inflation readings to consider — June 26 and July 31— before its next meeting on Aug. 6.
Persons: Michelle Bullock, Singapore's Organizations: Sydney Harbour, Opera House, Singapore's, Reserve Bank of Australia Locations: Sydney, Australia, Asia, Pacific, Japan
Even wealthy Americans are struggling to make ends meet
  + stars: | 2024-06-26 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
The survey finds a notable increase over the past year of consumers making $100,000 a year or more who are concerned about making ends meet over the next 12 months. That’s up from 21.3% of Americans in that income bracket concerned about making ends meet a year earlier. Among all consumers, about one in three (34.9%) said they are concerned about making ends meet, up from 28.7% a year earlier. Forty-one percent of those between 18 and 35 years old said they are concerned about making ends meet, compared with just 22% of those over 65. For instance, 32.3% of those making $100,000 to $149,999 said they are concerned about making ends meet in the next seven to 12 months, up from 26.5% a year ago.
Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philly Fed, Transportation Security Administration, TSA Locations: New York
Australia's central bank said on Wednesday that monetary policy was restrictive with the current cash rate causing financial pain for many households, but it could not rule out further tightening if necessary to tame inflation. Australia's central bank said on Wednesday that monetary policy was restrictive with the current cash rate causing financial pain for many households, but it could not rule out further tightening if necessary to tame inflation. In a speech on the banking industry in Melbourne, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said interest rates of 4.35% were contributing to slower growth of demand and lower inflation. "We know that many are feeling a painful squeeze on their finances because of higher interest rates," said Kent, noting mortgage payment has already increased to a record 10% of household disposable income. The RBA has raised interest rates by a whopping 425 basis points since May 2022, but has held steady for five straight meetings with inflation running at 3.6%, well above its target band of 2%-3%.
Persons: Christopher Kent, Kent Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia Locations: Melbourne
REUTERS/Bobby Yip/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights New Tab , opens new tabJune 26 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. The first definition that appears in an online search for the meaning of "resilience" is "the capacity to withstand or to recover quickly from difficulties; toughness." In that light, the direction Asian markets are liable to take on Wednesday is hard to call. Broader concerns about the weakness of the yen and potential intervention from Japanese authorities, and the Chinese yuan's steady depreciation, still hang heavily over Asian markets. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:- Australia inflation (May)- RBA assistant governor Kent speaks- Singapore manufacturing production (May)Sign up here.
Persons: Bobby Yip, Tuesday's, Christopher Kent, Kent, Jamie McGeever Organizations: Hong Kong Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nvidia, Tuesday's U.S, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, U.S, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Hong Kong, China, U.S, Tuesday's, Singapore, Australia
In the 1960s, there were six people of working age for every retired person, according to the World Economic Forum. “What you’re seeing is increased spending on programs like Medicare and Social Security as the baby boomers are aging into those programs. And then of course, fewer workers relative to the number of people who are receiving Social Security and Medicare benefits,” said Dahl. Social Security payments still provide about 90% of income for more than a quarter of older adults in the United States, according to Social Security Agency surveys. But without intervention, the Social Security trust fund will be depleted by the mid-2030s, meaning that only a portion of retirees’ expected benefits will be paid out.
Persons: it’s, Louis, Simona Paravani, , Elon Musk, Kimberly, Clark, Mark Schneider, he’s, Emmanuel Macron, Donald Trump, Molly Dahl, Dahl, Eric Schmidt, ” Schmidt, Goldman Sachs, Stefano Scarpetta, Li Qiang, Juliana Liu, Joyce Jiang, Li, China’s, Xi Jinping, Biden, Max Prosecutors, haven’t, Max, Read Organizations: London CNN, Organisation for Economic Co, Development, Economic, Federal Reserve Bank of St, BlackRock, Disease Control, Congressional Budget Office, CBO, Social Security, Social, Social Security Agency, Google, Summit, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, OECD, ” Companies, West Chinese, CNN, EV, Prosecutors, Boeing, Max, US Justice Department, Alaska Air, Justice Department, Federal Aviation Administration Locations: Chad, Niger, Somalia, Samoa, Tonga, Tajikistan, United States, London, China, Beijing, Dalian, Canada, Beijing’s “
Asia-Pacific markets fell on Monday, ahead of inflation data from Australia and Japan later this week. Special attention will be paid to Australia's May consumer price index figures on Wednesday, after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michelle Bullock revealed the central bank discussed hiking rates at its last meeting. Should inflation come in higher than expected and spur the RBA to raise rates, it would be the first major Asia-Pacific central bank to do so in an environment where investors are waiting for rate cuts, barring Japan. The RBA has two inflation readings to consider — June 26 and July 31— before its next meeting on Aug. 6.
Persons: Michelle Bullock Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia Locations: Asia, Pacific, Australia, Japan
10'000 Hours | Digitalvision | Getty ImagesThere are areas in the U.S. that are considered to be the least difficult places to buy a home, according to a new real estate indicator. When the counties are sorted by index rank, Iroquois County, Illinois is the least difficult market to buy a home, according to the NBC News Home Buyer Index. Economic Instability: Macon County, Tennessee has the most stable local economy among measured areas. And finally, economic instability considers an area's market volatility, unemployment levels and interest rates. The NBC News Home Buyer Index was developed by NBC News alongside housing experts, such as a real estate industry analyst and a bank economist from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
Persons: Joe Murphy, , Murphy, Danielle Hale, Jacob Channel, Hale Organizations: NBC, U.S ., Finance, NBC News, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, U.S . Department of Housing, Urban Development, . Census, Federal, Fed, who've Locations: U.S, Iroquois County , Illinois, Somervell County , Texas, Imperial County , California, Macon County , Tennessee
Extreme heat takes toll on outdoor workers
  + stars: | 2024-06-21 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +11 min
There’s little to no escape from sweltering temperatures for construction workers like Eva Marroquin, who cleans work sites in Austin, Texas, and has worked in the industry for 17 years. Since 2010, she’s worked closely with the Workers Defense Project, an organization that advocates for protections for low-wage, immigrant workers in the Texas construction industry. Slowing down small businessesIt’s barely just now summer, and heatwaves are already slowing down small businesses, according to Homebase, which provides payroll software to more than 100,000 small businesses, covering 2 million hourly workers. “I think anything that impacts small businesses is affecting the economy as a whole,” he said, noting how small businesses account for half the jobs in the country. For herself, the high heat is more of an inconvenience; the car’s hotter and she just needs to pack some extra water.
Persons: Eva Marroquin, ” Marroquin, Christine Bolaños, she’s, Chris Lafakis, , Joshua, Gina Ferazzi, Gregory P, Casey, Jenny Schuetz, Brian Snyder, aren’t, , John Waldmann, They’re, Katie Parent, Joseph Prezioso, Greer, Denise Greer Jamerson, Norman, Greer Jamerson, you’ve, , “ It’s, it’s, Tamara Lovewell, café, panini, Tamara Lovewell “, Lovewell Organizations: CNN, Capitol, Workers Defense Project, Moody’s, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Williams College, Triple, Los Angeles Times, Environmental Protection Agency, Brookings Metro, Reuters, University of California, Stanford University, Getty, National Weather Service, Ruska Coffee Company Locations: Austin , Texas, Washington ,, Texas, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Massachusetts, Joshua Tree , California, Boston, Greater Boston, AFP, Princeton , Indiana, , Maine, United States, Caribou .
AI is replacing human tasks faster than you think
  + stars: | 2024-06-20 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
That’s in addition to creative tasks for which some businesses are already relying on ChatGPT and other AI chatbots to assist, including crafting job posts, writing press releases and building marketing campaigns. The findings show companies are increasingly turning to AI to cut costs, boost profits and make their workers more productive. Nearly 60% of all companies (and 84% of large companies) surveyed said that over the past year they have already leaned on software, equipment or technology including AI to automate tasks employees previously did. Bosses are turning to AI for a variety of reasons, including to trim what they are spending on human workers. Human jobs will be replaced — but will be replaced by other humans using AI,” he said.
Persons: ” Duke, John Graham, Duke, , Graham, , Reid Hoffman, ” Hoffman, Janet Yellen, Democratic Sen, Gary Peters, ” Graham Organizations: New, New York CNN — Corporate, Duke University, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, , CNN, Survey, Atlanta Fed, LinkedIn, Democratic, Homeland Security, Government Affairs Committee Locations: New York, That’s, ChatGPT
The big storyEmerging markets have been on tenterhooks for the better part of this year as the Federal Reserve has been dangling the prospect of an interest rate cut. Historically, as U.S. interest rates fall, the allure of the mighty dollar fades to the benefit of other currencies. Indeed, unlike most developed economies, India's interest rate regime in 2024 isn't any different from that of 2018. There lies the disconnect between the economy, the stock market, and a single stock. Non-bank lender Akme Fintrade India and engineering firm DEE Development Engineers will debut on the stock market on Wednesday.
Persons: Sumant Sinha, we've, Sinha, It's, Fitch, Rahul Jain, Goldman Sachs, Jake Sullivan, Modi, Narendra Modi, CNBC's Charmaine Jacob, Raamdeo Agrawal, CNBC's Tanvir Gill, Jain Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, India Inc, Nasdaq, Reserve Bank of, U.S, Societe Generale, Goldman, Clean Energy, CNBC, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, of India, Bangladesh, Australia, DEE Development Engineers Locations: Tuticorin, India, Reserve Bank of India, Japan, Britain, Delhi
More than $200 billion in assets track the JPMorgan Emerging Market Index in which India will eventually have a weight of 10% by March 2025, suggesting total passive inflows of at least $20 billion over the 10-month period. Since there is no precedent for these debt index-related inflows, bankers' estimates of the timing of flows are based on similar index adjustments in the equity markets. "Obviously, all this is a first and you can't be sure how things will be," the head of trading at a large foreign bank cautioned. In anticipation, large foreign banks could look at building short dollar/rupee positions to help manage inflows when they happen, an FX trader at a foreign bank said. As a senior banker at a large foreign bank said: "all the pipes that have been put in place might not work."
Organizations: JPMorgan, Reserve Bank of India, FX Locations: India
The $1.9 trillion economic stimulus package that President Biden signed shortly after taking office has become both an anchor and a buoy for his re-election campaign. The American Rescue Plan, which the Biden administration created and Democrats passed in March 2021, has fueled discontent among voters, in sometimes paradoxical ways. Some Americans blame the law, which included direct checks to individuals, for helping to fuel rapid inflation. Others appear upset that its relief to people, businesses and school districts was short-lived. Often, they indicate that only relatively small slices of the electorate believe Mr. Biden’s policies have helped them or their family financially.
Persons: Biden, Donald J, Trump Organizations: American, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
"Real" earnings measure the net growth in workers' wages after inflation. The trend of growth in annual real earnings has persisted since May 2023, according to BLS data. That marks a reversal from April 2021 to April 2023, when inflation spiked and eclipsed growth in the average worker's paycheck. That month, the average worker saw their pay growth spike to about 6% annually. "This is good news for consumers," since it generally equates to an increase in their well-being over time, he added.
Persons: It's, Chris Tilly, Maximiliano Dvorkin, Louis, Dvorkin Organizations: Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Finance, University of California, Federal Reserve Bank of St, BLS Locations: U.S, Los Angeles
A pedestrian and jogger pass the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) building, during a partial lockdown imposed due to the coronavirus, in Sydney, Australia, on Monday, May 18, 2020. David Gray | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesAsia-Pacific markets rebounded on Tuesday as Wall Street rallied overnight, with investors assessing the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision. The RBA held its benchmark interest rate at 4.35% for its fifth straight meeting, saying that inflation "remains above target and is proving persistent." The RBA also noted that the economic outlook remained "uncertain," with recent data signaling that achieving the inflation target was unlikely to be smooth. Automaker Hyundai also hit a fresh record, gaining about 1.62% on news that it plans to list its India unit in Mumbai.
Persons: David Gray, Kazuo Ueda, Akio Toyoda, Kospi Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg, Getty, Wall Street, Bank, Japan's Nikkei, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Toyota, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Hyundai, CSI Locations: Sydney, Australia, Asia, Pacific, Mumbai, Hong
But the terms' recent popularity suggests people want to understand how they fit into the broader economy beyond standard measurements. But that, too, is uncertain: She said she was "dangerously close" to losing the aid because her income is too high. ALICEs tend to be older or younger workers, and while they're represented across racial groups, they're more likely to be Black or Hispanic. HIFI: High Income, Financially InsecureHIFI is the latest acronym to join the club. In a 2021 Medium post, Erica Dhawan defined "geriatric millennials" as millennials born in the early 1980s.
Persons: ALICE, HENRY, Kory, Anthony Klotz, Kantenga, DINK, They've, they've, Eric Anicich, Henry, Alice, haven't, Sarah, she's, — there's, they're, Carrie, Gen Zers, Brenton, Mirlanda, Neiman Marcus, Katie Notopoulos, Paige Connell, Connell, Chrissy Arsenault, Arsenault, Jimmy Simpson, who've, Rich, Christopher Stroup, Stroup, HIFIs, Erica Dhawan, Dwahan, Louis, , Jewel Benjamin, Benjamin, micromanaging, Erin Snodgrass, Jacob Zinkula Organizations: FIRE, Business, LinkedIn, Texas, USC Marshall School of Business, : Asset, SNAP, Los Angeles Times, DINKs, Public School, Financial Independence, Sherwood News, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan Health, Social, Social Security Locations: POLK, City, Dallas, Boston, Massachusetts, Colorado, Santa Monica , California, millennials, Georgia
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