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Search resuls for: "Recessionary"


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The stock market could see further damage if one key index can't hold an important technical level, according to Bank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett. Looking at several key indexes, Hartnett said in a client note Thursday that selling pressure has persisted even in less tech-sensitive parts of the market, specifically citing the S & P 500 Equal-Weighted index. If that can't hold onto the 5,540 level — it closed Thursday at 5,501 — it could signal further pressure on the more widely followed S & P 500 market-cap weighted index. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD While still up 7.8% for 2023, the S & P 500 has tumbled about 14% from its all-time high. However, Harnett said he won't get bullish until the "3Ps" kick in: "bearish positioning combines with recessionary Profits to Policy easing."
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Harnett Organizations: Bank of America, Wall Locations: Thursday's
Daniel Bustamante, the hedge-fund CIO who won big in his short bet against shares of Carvana last year, is now betting millions of dollars that the housing market will slow significantly. Bustamante's call for home prices is an outlier in terms of where most Wall Street economists see the housing market headed. ATTOMAnother sign that things may go sour in the housing market is that institutional investors, or "smart money", has increasingly stopped buying residential properties, he said. RedfinAgain, Bustamante sees significant downside to home prices ahead. Recession warnings on Wall Street have become quieter in recent months as jobs and consumer spending data have held up.
Persons: Daniel Bustamante, DR, they'll, Bustamante, Bustamante anecdotally, ATTOM Organizations: Bustamante & Co, KB, Federal, National Locations: Carvana, Maricopa County , Arizona
Consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) and materials (.SPLRCM) led the gains across major S&P 500 sectors, while utilities (.SPLRCU) and energy stocks (.SPNY) lagged behind. Third-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are estimated to grow 2.2% year-on-year, LSEG data showed on Friday. Investors also await economic data including retail sales for September and the Philly Fed Business Index for October later this week. Lululemon Athletica (LULU.O) added 9.6% as the sportswear apparel maker is set to join the S&P 500 index this week, replacing Activision Blizzard . The S&P index recorded nine new 52-week highs and six new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 29 new highs and 148 new lows.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Charles Schwab, Dow, Ross Mayfield, Baird, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Johnson, Jerome Powell's, Patrick Harker, Lululemon, Ankika Biswas, Shashwat Chauhan, Arun Koyyur, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Moderna, Dow, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Bank of America, Johnson, Tesla, Netflix, Investors, Philly, Dow Jones, Federal, Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Apple, Activision Blizzard, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Gaza, New York State, China, Bengaluru
Uncertainty reigns, but Wall Street analysts named a wide range of stocks this week that they believe are battle-tested buying opportunities. They include: Mattel , CBOE , Marsh & McLennan, Warner Music Group and O'Reilly Automotive. CBOE "A Strong Defensive Play In Uncertain Times," Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley headlined a report earlier this week devoted to CBOE. Warner Music Group Warner Music shares are down 7.5% this year, but investors should buy the dip, according to Deutsche Bank. Marsh & McLennan — Deutsche Bank, buy rating "A Defensive Stock with Growth Characteristics.
Persons: Piper Sandler, Patrick Moley, Moley, Piper, CBOE, Ben Black, Black, Marsh, McLennan, Cave, Montazeri, O'Reilly, Mattel, Morgan Stanley, Read Organizations: Street, CNBC, Mattel, McLennan, Warner Music Group, O'Reilly Automotive, Warner Music Group Warner Music, Deutsche Bank, Warner Music, Marsh, Deutsche, MMC, — Citi, McLennan — Deutsche Bank, Disney Locations: Marsh, 4Q23
Euro zone labour market shows no sign of weakening: Lagarde
  + stars: | 2023-10-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
MARRAKECH, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The euro zone labour market shows no sign of softening, despite a near recessionary environment and a record string of interest rate hikes, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said on Saturday. "The labor market still shows no real sign of weakening," Lagarde told a conference. "The numbers we see both in terms of actual participation in the unemployment and unemployment in nominal numbers are quite striking." The ECB has been raising rates to dampen demand and persistently low unemployment is a key reason why some policymakers worry that high inflation could get stuck above target as workers enjoy the some of the best wage growth in years. Reporting by Balazs Koranyi Editing by Mark PotterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Balazs Koranyi, Mark Potter Organizations: Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: MARRAKECH
Wall Street prepares to dish economic dirt on US
  + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
They are also among the handful of banks which can buy Treasury debt straight from the central bank. That puts leaders like JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon at the center of the global financial spiderweb. To be sure, the financial statements that the banks will start to release on Friday will be backward-looking. Interest income will reflect the sharp and continued rise of central bank rates, which drag up the price banks must pay for customer deposits and what they charge for loans. It’s a big economic question, since plastic-related debt in the United States hit a record $1 trillion in August.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Marco Bello, Brian Moynihan’s, Jane Fraser, Wells Fargo, Dimon, Dean Athanasia, Banks, Wells, Peter Thal Larsen, Sharon Lam Organizations: JPMorgan Chase &, Reuters, REUTERS, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, of America, Treasury, Citi, Fraser, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Federal Reserve, Federal, Bank of, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics Bank, Alpha, Thomson Locations: Miami , Florida, U.S, Wells Fargo, Wells, United States
It's even tougher to buy a home right now than it was during the peak of the mid-2000s housing bubble. For one, the labor market remains very strong, meaning demand will be supported — if people still have jobs, they still have money coming in to save for a home. Goldman SachsIn the Great Recession, rising unemployment hurt housing demand, bringing down home prices. Another reason Karoui thinks things are different today is what's happened in the adjustable-rate mortgage market. During the Great Recession, for example, unemployment stayed around current levels for several more months following Treasury yield curve inversion before rising meaningfully.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Lotfi Karoui, Karoui, Goldman, Jan Hatzius, Piper, Michael Kantrowitz Organizations: Wall, Conference, Equity
In both cases the outcome would push the Fed from that "golden path" onto a far more familiar one: An economy buckling as borrowing costs rise and confidence wanes. "I don't think it is unavoidable" that joblessness will have to rise significantly for inflation to return to target, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Monday. But the most important thing is that we stay focused on restoring price stability, and I think that will require some rebalancing in the labor market." Her look at past periods of inflation and disinflation makes her think the labor market may still need a shock for the Fed to succeed. "As nice as it is to see a really strong labor market, when you are trying to get inflation down, that's not your friend."
Persons: Lorie Logan, Philip Jefferson, Austan Goolsbee, Jefferson, Christina Romer, Romer, Goolsbee, that's, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: DALLAS, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, Chicago Fed, Treasury, University of California, White House's Council, Economic Advisers, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Dallas, Israel, Palestinian, Berkeley
"This quarter is all about higher interest rates for longer," said Mike Mayo, an analyst at Wells Fargo. "There is a constructive environment, and investment banking fees tend to be higher through the end of the year," said Jason Goldberg, a banking analyst at Barclays. Despite the renewed optimism, investment banking activity remains depressed. As rates rise, bond prices fall, representing losses on paper that would be realized if the banks sold the bonds. More broadly, "we're back into this environment where investors think interest rates are going to remain higher for longer," he said.
Persons: JP Morgan Chase, Mike Segar, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley's, Mike Mayo, Ebrahim Poonawala, Jason Goldberg, Richard Ramsden, James Demmert, Ramsden, Tatiana Bautzer, Saeed Azhar, Lananh Nguyen, Nick Zieminski 私 Organizations: JP, Co, REUTERS, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Wall Street, SoftBank's Arm Holdings, Barclays, U.S, Treasury, Valley Bank, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Reuters, Street Research Locations: New York, Wells Fargo, dealmaking, Israel, Bengaluru
Rolls-Royce CEO Torsten Muller-Otvos unveils the new coachbuilt Rolls-Royce Boat Tail on May 27, 2021, at the Home of Rolls-Royce in Goodwood, West Sussex, England. Torsten Muller-Otvos, the Rolls-Royce CEO who turned an aging brand into a coveted badge of success for pop stars, athletes and young entrepreneurs, is retiring after 14 years. Rolls-Royce announced Thursday that Muller-Otvos, 63, the longest serving CEO of Rolls-Royce in nearly a century, will retire on December 1. Muller-Otvos brought new shine to the Rolls-Royce brand and became a leader in the luxury world by attracting a new generation of wealthy buyers. Muller-Otvos is the longest-serving CEO of Rolls-Royce since Claude Johnson, who brought Charles Rolls and Henry Royce together in 1904 and served until 1926.
Persons: Torsten Muller, Otvos, Muller, Chris Brownridge, " Muller, Claude Johnson, Charles Rolls, Henry Royce, Cullinan, Royce Organizations: Royce, BMW UK, Muller, CNBC, NBA Locations: Goodwood , West Sussex, England, U.S
U.S. dollar bills, British GDP and Euro currency bank notes are pictured on September 27, 2022 in Bath, England. Matt Cardy | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesLONDON — The British pound suffered its worst month against the U.S. dollar for a year in September, and strategists show little optimism for the rest of the year, as growth expectations weaken once again. Sterling fell 3.75% against the dollar through the month, logging a decline not seen since the end of last summer. The pound also slid 1.26% against the euro last month, notching its weakest performance since December 2022. Exchange rates have been impacted over the past two years by interest rate expectations, with higher rates generally making a currency more attractive for foreign investment.
Persons: Matt Cardy, Sterling, Liz Truss, Jane Foley, Foley, Jim McCormick, CNBC's Organizations: Getty, U.S, Bank of England, U.S ., Rabobank, CNBC, European Central Bank, of England, Citi, Federal Reserve, ECB, Organization for Economic Co, Development Locations: Bath, England, U.S, Germany
Goldman Sachs adds Nvidia to its October 'conviction list'
  + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Nvidia has been the market leader this year, and Goldman Sachs expects it to maintain that position going forward. It has a buy rating and a price target of $605, implying upside of 39%. NVDA YTD mountain Monster year for NVDA The bank also added IT stock Okta and Cintas to its list, while removing Salesforce and Johnson Controls . Goldman has a $100 price target on Okta, implying shares could gain roughly 22.7% from Friday's close. For uniform provider Cintas, Goldman said thinks the company's organic growth has structurally reset higher than pre-Covid levels, driven by volumes and growing opportunity in delivering uniforms into the healthcare vertical.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Okta, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, Johnson Controls, Bank of America Locations: Friday's
Hopes for a soft landing in the economy could be dashed as a number of risks start to converge. These are four risks that could send the economy into a recession sooner rather than later, according to Raymond James. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe US economy is more likely to enter a mild recession than stick a soft landing, according to a Friday note from Raymond James. AdvertisementAdvertisementThese are the four risks that could ultimately tip the economy into a recession, according to Adam. Labor market is weakening"The labor market's strength is finally starting to wane.
Persons: Raymond James, Larry Adam, Adam, Banks, shutdowns Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor, United Auto Workers
One is that the Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers' Index continues to show signs of slowing economic growth. "Real GDI has never fallen three quarters in a row without the economy being in a recession," Wolfenbarger said. This partially informs his call for the S&P 500 to fall to around 2,250, which would represent 48% downside from current levels. When it comes to Wolfenbarger's 48% sell-off call, it's well outside the mainstream of where strategists see stocks going. With valuations high, a meaningful recession could make that three times, as Wolfenbarger is warning.
Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Costa, Louis, Warren Buffett Organizations: JPMorgan, Bull, Institute for Supply Management's, Crescat, Federal Reserve Bank of St, downturns . Federal Reserve Bank of St Locations: downturns .
It's time to dump shares of Dollar General as consumers come under increasing pressure, according to JPMorgan. Analyst Matthew R. Boss downgraded shares to underweight from neutral, saying the company's core low-to middle-income shopper is under strain from diminishing savings and rising inflation. The downgrade comes after JPMorgan hosted a recent fireside chat with Dollar General finance chief Kelly Dilts. DG 1D mountain Dollar General shares 1-day All this charts an uncertain path forward for Dollar General, the analyst said. On Aug. 31, the stock dropped 12% after Dollar General reported weaker-than-expected second-quarter results.
Persons: Matthew R, Boss, Kelly Dilts, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, SNAP, Dollar, Dilts
Almost regardless of how much you have in the bank, it's hard to feel financially secure. Across the board, households are facing surging child-care costs, ballooning auto loans, high mortgage rates and record rents amid economic uncertainty and recessionary fears. And nearly half, or 47%, of wealthy Americans said their financial planning needs improvement. Yet there are things millionaires do that the rest of us may not, Northwestern Mutual's report also found, which can go a long way toward improving long-term well-being. Here are three moves wealthy Americans are more likely to make:
Persons: Organizations: Finance, Edelman Financial, Bloomberg Locations: Northwestern
Wall Street embraces biggest IPO in nearly two years
  + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
New York CNN —The largest public offering since 2021 is here. After a nearly two-year drought in the IPO market, UK-based chip designer Arm started trading in New York on Thursday with 95.5 million shares under the ticker ‘ARM’ (ARM) on the Nasdaq. Wall Street views Arm’s listing as a weather balloon for a number of tech companies waiting to go public. A successful debut by Arm could be the big IPO that clears the pipeline for the rest. That would provide a positive market sentiment for the overall stock market.”Goldman Sachs is the lead underwriter in the IPO.
Persons: haven’t, Goldman Sachs, , David Solomon, Dave Sekera, ” Goldman Sachs Organizations: New, New York CNN, ARM, Nasdaq, Trading, Apple, Samsung, Nvidia, Companies, Google, AMD, Morningstar Research Services Locations: New York
Dimon quoted Warren Buffett twice to flag the risks to banks and trumpet prudence in business. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. The billionaire banker and JPMorgan CEO also championed prudent risk management, and warned that more lenders could run into problems like Silicon Valley Bank did this spring. If you have that with a recession, yes, you're going to see a little bit more stress and strain in the system." (Dimon was referring to other banks getting caught out by rising interest rates like Silicon Valley Bank.)
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Warren Buffett, headwinds, It's, we've, There's, Warren, — he's Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Bank, Barclays, AlphaSense, Silicon Valley Bank Locations: Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Silicon Valley
Bank of America has a better-than-consensus outlook on the U.S. economy and thinks Cintas will be a major beneficiary as recession risks wane. "With BofA's economics team no longer expecting a near-term recession, we're more confident in Cintas' sales and margin momentum." Shares of the Ohio-based work uniform and services company have gained 10.2% this year. The firm's earnings estimate for fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2025 are higher than the company's guidance as well as Wall Street's expectations, she said in the note . "We think Cintas is poised for EPS beats driven by sales and margin outperformance," Balsky said.
Persons: Cintas, Heather Balsky, Balsky, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: of America Locations: U.S, Monday's, Ohio
Mason King Courtesy: Mason KingMore than a year of recessionary forecasts have created "a highly unusual market," said Mason King, a principal of Luther King Capital Management in Fort Worth, Texas, which ranked No. 1 on CNBC's list of the top 100 financial advisors in the U.S. for 2023. Although some experts have more recently backed off those earlier predictions of an impending recession and embraced the idea of soft landing, "that's been the most consensus we've seen," he added. "Exactly how much market activity has already been drained and how much is still ahead of us, nobody knows," King said. To navigate the ups and downs, King says the firm maintains a longer time horizon, just like the companies they invest in.
Persons: Mason King, Luther, — J, Luther King Jr, , that's, King Organizations: Luther King Capital Management, Federal, Fed, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla Locations: Fort Worth , Texas, U.S, Trimble, Albemarle
The US dollar is king again. Here’s why
  + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
London CNN —The US dollar is enjoying its longest winning streak in nearly nine years. The rally comes after months of volatility, fueled by concerns that the dollar may be losing its status as the world’s reserve currency. “Rumors of the US dollar’s demise continue to be greatly exaggerated,” James Athey, investment director at Abrdn, an asset manager, told CNN. Higher interest rates tend to boost the value of a country’s currency by attracting more foreign capital, as investors anticipate making bigger returns. “The US economy continues to surprise to the upside,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macroeconomic research at ING, told CNN.
Persons: ” James Athey, ” Athey, ” Carsten Brzeski, ” Brzeski, Russ Mould, AJ Bell, Athanasios Vamvakidis, Sheldon Cooper, , ” Alex Cohen Organizations: London CNN, CNN, Federal Reserve, ING, US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of America Global Research, People’s Bank of Locations: Saudi Arabia, United States, China, Europe, Germany, Russia, People’s Bank of China
Europe faces dirtier inflation fight than US
  + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
The euro zone’s export-led economy is weak, consumers and businesses are borrowing less, and higher borrowing costs mean there’s further pain to come. The contrasting fortunes of Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, and Jerome Powell, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, can be summed up in two numbers. The equivalent figures for the euro zone were 5.3% and 0.6%, respectively. Euro zone inflation has halved from the 10.6% peak it reached in October 2022. Europe faces a longer and dirtier fight to tame rising prices.
Persons: Kai Pfaffenbach, Christine Lagarde, Jerome Powell, That’s, Lagarde, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Reuters, U.S . Federal, P, International Monetary Fund, ECB, Economics, Labour, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, United States, U.S, China
As the economy slows down, investors will want to play defense with dividend strategies, according to Wolfe Research. "In a later cycle environment, dividend growth becomes scarce and investors tend to pay up for companies with high dividend growth," analyst Chris Senyek wrote in a note last week. Therefore, the strategy is to look for names with both high dividend growth and a high free cash flow yield, since investors look to cash flow to support further dividend growth, he said. Comcast has an average analyst rating of overweight and has nearly 10% upside to the average price target, according to FactSet. Lennar is also well-liked by analysts, with an average rating of overweight and about 20% upside to the average price target, per FactSet.
Persons: Chris Senyek, Senyek, Peacock, Morgan Stanley, Benjamin Swinburne, Lennar, Raymond James, Buck Horne, UnitedHealth, Bernstein, Lance Wilkes, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, Comcast, Media, CNBC
A holiday-shortened week often provides markets and economists a moment to reflect. That’s especially the case after Labor Day, a date that signifies the end of the summer. Data last week reinforced the narrative of a slowing labor market and inflation that has cooled off but not quite as much as the Federal Reserve would like. A handful of Fed governors will speak this week ahead of the central bank’s next meeting in two weeks. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs on Tuesday lowered the odds of a recession within the next 12 months to 15% from 20% previously, citing the favorable inflation data, the softening labor market and continued growth in incomes.
Persons: , Wells, Goldman Sachs, Peter G, Peterson Organizations: Labor, Federal, BCA Research, White
While big firms have survived high rates, Edwards said a recession would eventually hurt them too. Here are the effective interest rates for a few cohorts of the S&P 1500. The Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shows 49% of banks are tightening lending standards for small companies. They weren't able to lock into long-term loans at almost zero interest rates and pile it high in the money markets at variable rates," Edwards said. "In our view, the current savings rate is unsustainably low, and the main downside risk to growth is that the savings rate will suddenly move higher."
Persons: Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Edwards, haven't, Louis, that's, we'll, Brian Rose, Rose, Piper Sandler, it's Organizations: Societe Generale's, Societe Generale, American Bankruptcy Institute, Generale, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Institute, Supply Management's, UBS Americas, UBS Companies
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