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That means the dilemma of the 21st century isn’t how Earth will feed an ever-growing population, but how the world will deal with a potential mass rebalancing of population via migration, an altered wealth-and-people equilibrium, in a world where technology is making the movement of peoples easier than ever. Clearly, the richest countries will be able to replenish their populations with immigration across the 21st century — if they choose. (A 25 percent ratio means there are four workers for every retiree; a 50 percent ratio, just two.) I don’t think you need to be especially pessimistic to regard that kind of transformation as incompatible with stable democratic governance. It’s among the reasons you already have the rightward shift in European politics and why immigration restriction will be a winning issue for the foreseeable future in many European countries.
Persons: Declan Walsh, Africa’s “, Hannah Reyes Morales, Walsh, it’s, Paul Morland, Philip Pilkington, , hasn’t, don’t, , Morland, Pilkington, Biden, Trump, , Gilbert Meilaender, Blake Smith, Yuan Yi Zhu, Valerie Stivers, Tim Miller, John Gallagher, — Sarah Neville Organizations: Financial Times Locations: Israel, Gaza, Europe, Africa, East Asia, Latin America, Italy, Spain, Bulgaria, Romania, Germany, Sweden, Nigeria, Morocco, Americas, America, United States, Palestine, Denmark, Britain, South Korea, Japan, Asia, Poland, , London, North America
A drilling rig operates in the Permian Basin oil and natural gas production area in Lea County, New Mexico, U.S., February 10, 2019. In response, drilling rates have fallen with an average of just 501 rigs drilling for oil in October 2023 down from 623 in December 2022. U.S. GAS PRODUCTIONLike oil production, U.S. gas output has also continued to increase, a lagged response to high prices in 2022, but the subsequent slump in prices has been more severe and is causing a more pronounced slowdown in output growth. The combination of fewer drilling rigs, slower production growth, faster exports, and ultra-low prices stimulating consumption by power generators has largely eliminated surplus inventories carried over from 2022. Related columns:- U.S. oil producers reprieved by Saudi output cut (October 3, 2023)- U.S. oil and gas output still rising in response to high prices last year (June 1, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.
Persons: Nick Oxford, John Kemp, Emelia Sithole Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Energy Information Administration, “ Petroleum, Twitter, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Lea County , New Mexico, U.S, Gulf, Mexico, Chartbook, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, Russia, OPEC, Saudi
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed Chair Powell: We've seen a positive supply and demand rebalancing in the labor marketFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell takes questions from reporters after announcing the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged.
Persons: Powell, We've, Jerome Powell
Asia stocks mull over Middle East, central bank meetings
  + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The earnings season also continues with Apple, Airbnb, McDonald's, Moderna and Eli Lilly & Co among the many reporting this week. Early on Monday, S&P 500 futures had edged up 0.3% to 4,151, while Nasdaq futures added 0.5%. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 1.1% amid speculation the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might tweak its yield curve control (YCC) policy after its two-day policy meeting wraps up on Tuesday. The Bank of England is also expected to stay on hold this week, with markets pricing around a 70% chance it is done tightening altogether. Oil prices eased as worries about demand outweighed risks to Middle East supplies, at least for the moment.
Persons: Issei Kato, BoE, BOJ, Eli Lilly, China Evergrande, Treasuries, Goldman Sachs, reacceleration, Brent, Wayne Cole, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, Apple, Moderna, Nasdaq, HK, Japan's Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Barclays, Treasury, NatWest, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Capital, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Gaza, payrolls SYDNEY, United States, Britain, McDonald's, Gaza's, Iranian, Asia, Pacific, China, Israel, East
To this aim UniCredit wants to get to around 20 billion euros of in-house funds, Orcel said. UniCredit and Amundi are tied by a 10-year distribution agreement they signed in 2017, when UniCredit sold its internal asset manager Pioneer to Amundi. Orcel, who has been working to increase the bank's fee income since arriving in 2021, said on Tuesday UniCredit had been "rebalancing" its relationship with Amundi. By replacing the Amundi funds with its own products or those of partners who pay the bank more to sell their funds, UniCredit increases the portion of distribution fees in asset management it pockets. "In terms of value, I think in-house, strictly speaking, we're looking at about 20 billion euros," he said.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Andrea Orcel, UniCredit, Orcel, Valérie Baudson, Amundi, Mathieu Rosemain, Valentina Za, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Paris
China has changed the world's energy system before and is set to do so again, as a peak in demand for fossil fuels nears, according to the International Energy Agency's Executive Director. Fatih Birol said that there was one country behind the substantial increase in global fossil fuel consumption over the last decade: China. "China changed the global energy system in the last 10 years. He described this as one of two "important drivers" behind the IEA's belief that global demand for fossil fuels will peak by 2030. The comments come after the IEA published its World Energy Outlook 2023, a major report on the global energy system.
Persons: Fatih Birol, CNBC's Julianna Tatelbaum Organizations: International Energy Agency's, IEA, Energy Locations: China
The PlayStation 5 is fully stocked in stores around the world and will hit Sony's sales target of 25 million units for the year, an executive at the company told CNBC exclusively. That comes after a series of successive console shortages, because of which many players around the world were unable to get their hands on PS5 units. Poor supply volumes linked to the global chip shortage and supply chain disruptions greatly limited the availability of PS5, and Microsoft's Xbox Series X and S.The PS5 and Xbox Series X were notoriously hard to find in stores after their November 2020 launch. Sony, for its part, has struggled to meet demand for the PS5, facing supply shortages each year following the PS5's release. Sony had set itself a target of 25 million PS5 units shipped throughout 2023.
Persons: Eric Lempel, that's, Lempel Organizations: PlayStation, CNBC, Sony
UniCredit 'rebalancing' Amundi relationship in fee income drive
  + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
It's rebalancing a little bit, and will rebalance going forward," UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel told analysts when presenting the bank's third quarter results. Sources told Reuters in May that UniCredit had been trimming the proportion of Amundi funds in its total AUM, paying penalties for failing to meet contractual minimums. Orcel said UniCredit will maintain its current "open architecture" approach to asset management, which involves partnering with all major players, including Amundi, to offer "best in class" products. Since taking over at UniCredit in 2021, the former investment banker, has been working to boost revenue from asset management in an effort to increase net fee income as a proportion of UniCredit's overall revenue. As he sought to review the 10-year Amundi distribution deal, Orcel signed an agreement with Azimut (AZMT.MI) in late 2022 giving the Italian asset manager access to UniCredit's clients.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, UniCredit, Amundi, It's, Andrea Orcel, Orcel, Valentina Za, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, BlackRock, Thomson Locations: UniCredit, Italian
On Friday, the S & P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since March 17. If the total-return version of the index closes below that level for five straight days, then the $2 billion Pacer Trendpilot US Large Cap ETF (PTLC) will automatically sell some of its all-stock portfolio to shift to a 50-50 split between equities and Treasury bills. And if the 200-day moving average itself then starts to fall, the fund will go to 100% T-bills. Still, the fund's rule tied to the 200-day moving average is an example of how the move of a stock or index across a widely-followed indicator can cause volatility. Year to date, the fund is up just under 5% — well below the gain of more than 11% for the SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) .
Persons: rebalance, Sean O'Hara, O'Hara Organizations: Trust, ETF Distributors, Pacer, Nasdaq Locations: technologystocks
Mester noted Fed forecasts released at the September meeting eyed another increase in what is currently a federal funds target rate range of between 5.25% and 5.5% by the end of the year, and then to hold rates steady at high levels for an extended period. “This is consistent with my own reading of economic conditions, the outlook, and the risks to the outlook,” she said. Mester, who does not have a vote on the Federal Open Market Committee this year, also noted that the outlook for policy can change. In her remarks, Mester said inflation pressures are coming down but remain too high. Mester also said that if the recent surge in bond yields is sustained it should help moderate demand, which aligns with Fed goals.
Persons: Loretta Mester, ” Mester, Mester, , Michael S, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank, Cleveland, Federal, Fed, Thomson
Fundstrat Global Advisors founder Tom Lee recently completed the quarterly rebalancing for his Granny Shots portfolio, a list of his top 36 stock picks which has consistently outperformed the market since its inception on Jan. 10, 2019. The Granny Shots portfolio, on the other hand, is up 157.3% in the same period, according to Fundstrat's website . This year alone, the Granny Shots portfolio's 19.33% rally has also outpaced the S & P 500's 13.9% gain. The portfolio takes its name from a style of underhanded shot in basketball that's considered to be highly efficient. Here are a few of the newest additions to Lee's Granny Portfolio.
Persons: Tom Lee, that's, Lee, Fundstrat's Mark Newton, Newton, Hess, Morgan Stanley, Oracle Organizations: Fundstrat Global, Granny, Jan, UST, Washington, Everest, Insurance, ISI, Oracle, CNBC, Caterpillar Locations: Fed
In both cases the outcome would push the Fed from that "golden path" onto a far more familiar one: An economy buckling as borrowing costs rise and confidence wanes. "I don't think it is unavoidable" that joblessness will have to rise significantly for inflation to return to target, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Monday. But the most important thing is that we stay focused on restoring price stability, and I think that will require some rebalancing in the labor market." Her look at past periods of inflation and disinflation makes her think the labor market may still need a shock for the Fed to succeed. "As nice as it is to see a really strong labor market, when you are trying to get inflation down, that's not your friend."
Persons: Lorie Logan, Philip Jefferson, Austan Goolsbee, Jefferson, Christina Romer, Romer, Goolsbee, that's, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: DALLAS, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, Chicago Fed, Treasury, University of California, White House's Council, Economic Advisers, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Dallas, Israel, Palestinian, Berkeley
Job growth surged in September
  + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Madison Hoff | Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
The US added 336,000 jobs in September, greater than job growth in August. "It is a sign of stability, steady growth, and we are committed to making sure that all Americans share in the growth and prosperity." Leisure and hospitality saw robust job growth in September, with a gain of 96,000. Government employment soared by 73,000, with bigger gains in local and state government roles compared to the job growth for the federal government. After an increase in the unemployment rate in August as more people entered the labor force, the unemployment rate was 3.8% again in September.
Persons: , Labor Julie Su, Nick Bunker, Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter, Bunker, Daniel Zhao, Karin Kimbrough, Kimbrough, there's Organizations: Workers, Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, of Labor, Labor, North America, Leisure
Tom Barkin, president of the Richmond Fed, recently commented on housing on the "Odd Lots" podcast. Home prices have stayed high as the pandemic sparked a "secular change" in the way people think about housing. That could mean sectors other than housing will need to see slowdowns, he suggested. AdvertisementAdvertisementHe added that the housing market ultimately remains imbalanced, and that could mean sectors other than housing will need to see slowdowns. But relative prices move all the time, and if what we've seen is a secular shift toward more demand for housing, that might mean somewhat less lessening of housing prices and somewhat more lessening of other prices."
Persons: Tom Barkin, , Barkin Organizations: Richmond Fed, Service
BlackRock stock has slumped nearly 12% in 2023. BLK YTD mountain BlackRock stock. Treasury yields have soared in recent days , with the 10-year climbing to its highest level in 16 years, rattling equity markets. The yields on 30-year Treasury bonds, meanwhile, briefly traded above 5% on Wednesday. BlackRock is the biggest asset manager in the world, with more than $9.4 trillion through the end of the second quarter.
Persons: Craig, Siegenthaler, BofA, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, BlackRock, Treasury, Wednesday Locations: BlackRock, 4Q23
Jordanian Dinar, Yuan, Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Pound and Riyals banknotes are seen in this picture illustration taken June 13, 2017. JP Morgan analyst Sin Beng Ong in a note on the pressure it was putting on emerging Asia markets. RICHARD MCGUIRE, HEAD OF RATES STRATEGY, RABOBANK, LONDON:“The markets reflect effectively flying blind because the models don't work, everybody's been calling for a recession that just simply refuses to arrive. "Our view is that the U.S. economy slows into next year... so from that perspective, at some point, we expect it (bond market selloff) to normalise." (Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News team)Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Yuan, Dado Ruvic, BENG ONG, JP Morgan, Sin Beng Ong, RICHARD MCGUIRE, everybody's, you've, VIKRAM AGGARWAL, ” JUAN VALENZUELA, ARTEMIS, , ” NICK NELSON Organizations: REUTERS, OF, JPMORGAN, RABOBANK, LONDON, Federal Reserve, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, ASIA, SINGAPORE, Asia, U.S
Oil drilling and production growth has slowed in a delayed response to the sharp drop in oil prices since the middle of 2022. In turn, the largest U.S. shale producers have indicated they have no intention of raising output in response to the recent rise in prices. US GAS PRODUCTIONLike U.S. oil production, gas output has also continued to increase, a lagged response to high prices in 2022, but the subsequent slump in prices has been more severe and is causing a more pronounced slowdown in output growth. With no equivalent of Saudi Arabia, Russia and OPEC+ to accelerate the rebalancing, U.S. gas producers have experienced prices lower for longer than their oil counterparts. Related columns:- U.S. oil futures surge as Cushing stocks evaporate (September 28, 2023)- Saudi oil minister deflects blame for rising prices(September 19, 2023)- U.S. oil and gas output nears peak(September 1, 2023)- U.S. oil and gas output still rising in response to high prices last year(June 1, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.
Persons: Liz Hampton, Cushing, John Kemp, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Loco Hills, New Mexico, U.S, Gulf, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Russia, OPEC, Saudi
Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. Meanwhile, a partial government shutdown is looming, which could affect the release of economic data and potentially dent economic growth. The greenback is up 3.54% against the yen this quarter, following an 8.66% gain last quarter. Core inflation in Japan's capital slowed in September for the third straight month mainly on falling fuel costs, data showed on Friday. The British currency is on track for a quarterly loss of 3.85% against the U.S. dollar, the worst performance in a year.
Persons: Florence Lo, , Peter Cardillo, Brown Brothers Harriman, “ We’re, Janet Yellen, Sterling, Karen Brettell, Amanda Cooper, Stephen Culp, David Holmes, Nick Zieminski Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Spartan Capital Securities, Federal Reserve, Brown Brothers, Republicans, U.S . House, Treasury, U.S ., Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, London
(Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended lower on Friday as investors digested implications of a U.S. inflation report for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy and adjusted their portfolios on the last day of a weak third quarter for stocks. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File PhotoThe benchmark S&P 500 also posted its biggest monthly percentage drop of the year. The data revealed a “better than expected but still elevated inflation picture,” said Eric Freedman, chief investment officer at U.S. Bank Asset Management. Meanwhile, Freedman said, “we are at quarter end, and with quarter end comes all sorts of activities across both the stock and bond markets.”According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 lost 11.37 points, or 0.26%, to end at 4,288.33 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 18.05 points, or 0.18%, to 13,224.52. Among S&P 500 sectors, energy and financials declined sharply.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, , Eric Freedman, Freedman, ” Freedman, Paul Nolte, Murphy, Morgan Organizations: Reuters, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Data, Fed, U.S, Bank Asset Management, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Energy, “ Energy, Equity, Sylvest Wealth Management, Investors, Republicans, U.S . House, Traders, Nike Locations: U.S, New York City, Washington
The fund's sheer size means its options reset can rack up a massive surge in trading volume in S&P 500 options and set off related hedging activity that can aggravate market moves. How the fund's rebalancing could end up affecting the whole market has to do with market makers - typically big financial institutions that facilitate trading but seek to remain market-neutral. As things stand, with the S&P 500 trading around the 4,290 level, market makers are short about 40,000 September 29 S&P 500 options at the 4,210 strike. Market makers who have sold these put options must sell stock futures to minimize their own risk, as the market drifts closer to the strike price of the sold options. "As we move lower, market makers need to sell and as we move higher market makers need to buy it back," Murphy said.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Morgan, Chris Murphy, Murphy, Brent Kochuba, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Megan Davies, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, JPMorgan Hedged Equity, Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Amazon.com Inc, Treasury, Susquehanna Financial Group, Traders, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
Tight labor market conditions continue to prevail, with the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rising slightly last week, other data showed on Thursday. Some economists believe that the economy's resilience and tight labor market could give the Federal Reserve ammunition to raise interest rates again in November. Reuters GraphicsSTRONG LABOR MARKETThe economy is being underpinned by a resilient labor market, which is driving strong wage gains. The labor market has continued to hold its own so far. The unemployment rate increased to 3.8% in August from 3.5% in July.
Persons: Mike Blake, Christopher Rupkey, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Port, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Gross, Reuters Graphics, U.S . House, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Ford, Labor Department, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Port of Los Angeles, San Pedro , California, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York
We need 'economic rebalancing' with China, EU trade chief says
  + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe need 'economic rebalancing' with China, EU trade chief saysValdis Dombrovskis, executive vice president of the European Commission, discusses geopolitics and a probe into China electric vehicle subsidies, following a diplomatic trip to China.
Persons: Valdis Dombrovskis Organizations: European Commission Locations: China
Hong Kong/Taipei CNN —China and the European Union have agreed to exchange information on export controls as part of efforts to dial down tension over trade imbalances and geopolitical issues. I am glad that we made progress in addressing some market access issues,” Valdis Dombrovskis said in a statement. Hours before meeting He on Monday, Dombrovskis said China’s trade practices have forced the European Union to become more assertive in its dealings with the world’s second largest economy. China recently slapped export curbs on two semiconductor materials in a warning shot to Europe and the United States, after they imposed restrictions on China’s access to advanced chipmaking equipment. Moscow has become increasingly dependent on Beijing since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with trade between Russia and China soaring this year.
Persons: rebalancing, ” Valdis Dombrovskis, Dombrovskis, , ” Jorge Toledo, it’s, ” Dombrovskis, — Laura Organizations: Taipei CNN —, European Union, European Commission, EU, Union, Tsinghua University, China, Reuters Locations: China, Hong Kong, Taipei, Taipei CNN — China, Beijing, , EU, Europe, United States, Ukraine, Moscow, Russia
After years of putting her mental health second to her career, she's prioritizing her well-being. Now that I'm financially able to take a break, I've decided to take a gap year in my 30s. Here's why I've made this decision and how I'm going to make it happen. I'm going to embrace ethical and slow travelI'm planning to visit Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, and Ecuador. I'm going to strive to regain the Spanish fluency I've lost over the past few years, meditate daily, and get outside every day.
Persons: Taryn Williams, would've, I'm, I've, Dunkin, it's, journaling Organizations: Service Locations: Alaska, South America, Wall, Silicon, Airbnbs, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Antarctica
And we will be more assertive in tackling unfairness.”The trade chief’s visit comes as tensions flare between the bloc and China over trade imbalances and geopolitical issues. The bloc’s trade deficit with China hit 396 billion euros ($421 billion) last year, which was “the highest in the history of mankind,” Jorge Toledo, the EU ambassador to China, was quoted by Reuters as saying. Dombrovskis said China’s new foreign relations law and its newly broadened counter-espionage law, in particular, were of “great concern” to European business. Two months later, it unveiled a sweeping foreign relations law enshrining its right to impose “countermeasures” against actions that it deems a threat. Russia has become increasingly dependent on China since the Kremlin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN —, Valdis Dombrovskis, , ” Dombrovskis, ” Jorge Toledo, Dombrovskis, , enshrining, Vladimir Putin, — Lucas Liliholm, Manveena Suri Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Union, Tsinghua University, EU, China, Reuters, European Union, West, EU Chamber of Commerce, Kremlin Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Europe, EU, United States, Ukraine, Russia
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