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With economic and monetary policy outlooks varying, currency moves are increasingly out of sync with each other. More pain is also anticipated for the yuan, trading near seven-month lows, as well as smaller Asian currencies. It's continuing to weaken against some European currencies and also Latin American currencies," he said. MULTI-LAYERED CRISISKit Juckes, head of FX strategy at Societe Generale, said the focus on monetary policy differences was also a result of uncertainties elsewhere. "We've got a one-in-a-100-years pandemic and once-in-75-years war and a-once-in-25-years energy crisis all thrown into the mix together," said SocGen's Juckes.

Persons: Yen, Pound, Jordan Rochester, Nomura, Lee Hardman, Hardman, Juckes, Morgan Stanley reckons, We've, SocGen's, You’ve, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alun John, John Stonestreet Organizations: The Bank of, European Central Bank, Reuters Graphics Rochester, Societe Generale, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Europe, COVID, Ukraine, The Bank of Japan, United States, Beijing, Scandinavia

FALLING STARWhen Odey set up Odey Asset Management, it was in the afterglow of then British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher's deregulation of the stock market in London's 1986 "Big Bang". Privately educated at the elite Harrow school, Odey left Oxford University and began his career in traditional asset management before launching Odey Asset Management. But fund performance at Odey Asset Management has been a rollercoaster, with Odey renowned for taking risks. He liked to say leverage was like a drug - once you experienced it, you could never live without it, one hedge fund manager said. Lawmakers on Britain's Treasury Select Committee have written to the FCA to question the regulator's supervision of Odey Asset Management and Odey.

Persons: Crispin Odey, Odey, Banks, Robert Sears, CIOs, Don Steinbrugge, Margaret Thatcher's, Egerton Capital, Marshall Wace, Winton, Kwasi Kwarteng, Maiya Keidan, Nell Mackenzie, Iain Withers, Lawrence White, Dhara Ranasinghe, Elisa Martinuzzi, Alex Richardson Organizations: TORONTO, Reuters, Odey Asset Management, FT, Tortoise Media, Odey, Management, Britain's Financial, Authority, Generation Partners, Odey's, HSBC, Inc, Wall Street, Agecroft Partners, British, Harrow, Oxford University, Conservative Party, Barclays, Peugeot, Hong Kong, Lawmakers, FCA, Thomson Locations: LONDON, City, London, Toronto

☆ Hunting for returns, savers dash for euro zone government debt
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Leading the way is Italy, which sold a record 18.2 billion euro retail bond this month to increase domestic holdings of its debt. This means around 15% of outstanding Portuguese government debt now sits with retail investors, versus 10% in recent years. Belgium meanwhile has issued 390 million euros of state notes to retail investors this year, the highest since 2011. But individuals still only hold 1% of its 1.3 trillion euro public debt overall, a spokesperson said. Italy first launched retail bonds in 2012 amid the euro zone debt crisis, reducing reliance on international investors as borrowing costs surged.

Persons: that's, Rui Amaral, Amaral, Banks, Maric, Post, Jorge Garayo, Cyril Rousseau, Rousseau, Yoruk, Dhara Ranasinghe, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Spanish Treasury, Spanish, European Central Bank, ECB, Treasury, Generale, Germany, Thomson Locations: Portugal, Spanish, Italy, Belgium, Europe, Spain, France, Germany

That threw a new curveball at UK markets, as just last week economists polled by Reuters had unanimously expected the BoE to raise by 25 basis points. I would not be surprised if we see a 50-bp rate rise from the Bank of England tomorrow." Other analysts said delivering a larger rate rise on Thursday risked further undermining the BoE's messaging. Bets on where BoE rate hikes might peak rose as high as 6% on Wednesday. The rise in yields hit UK housebuilders (.FTNMX402020), which were down as much as 3.1%.

Persons: BoE, Melanie Baker, Liz, Nick Rees, Richard McGuire, Rabobank's McGuire, Yoruk Bahceli, William Schomberg, Dhara Ranasinghe, Danilo Masoni, Alun John, Peter Graff Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, Royal London Asset Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Wednesday's, MPC, FX, Monex, Rabobank, Sterling, Thomson Locations: Monex Europe

☆ Morning Bid: ECB day to follow a hawkish Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A day after the Federal Reserve took markets by surprise with a hawkish message, it's the European Central Bank's turn in the hot seat. While the Fed was widely expected to, and did, keep rates unchanged, the U.S. central bank left the door open to more increases ahead. And so to the ECB, which is all but certain to raise borrowing costs to their highest level in 22 years on Thursday. Even after the more hawkish message from the Fed on Wednesday, market pricing for the rate trajectory has not changed too much. Money markets price in roughly one more 25 basis point rate increase from the Fed, while the ECB may struggle to sound hawkish while inflation in the bloc is coming down.

Persons: BNY Mellon, It's, Dhara Ranasinghe, Jane Merriman Organizations: Federal Reserve, BNY, ECB, Fed, ING, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Dhara, United States, Europe

The rapid rise in gilt yields has consequences for the wider economy. To some investors, gilts now increasingly look a bargain as 6% BoE interest rates appear unrealistic. Two-year gilt yields have risen by 1.1 percentage points this year, compared with a 0.3 percentage point increase for German two-year yields and 0.2 percentage points for U.S. Treasuries . Raising interest rates to 6% would "succeed in destroying demand" in the wider economy, he said. Ten-year gilt yields now pay an interest rate nearly 2 percentage points higher than the equivalent German government bond .

Persons: BoE, Liz, Britain's, Jim Leaviss, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, gilts, We've, Mike Riddell, Riddell, Moyeen, There's, Islam, Naomi Rovnick, David Milliken, Toby Chopra Organizations: Labour Party, Bank of England, Bank of, Italy, Reuters Graphics, Allianz Global Investors, U.S, Barclays, Thomson Locations: Bank of England, Britain, British, gilts

A spokesperson for the hedge fund declined further comment on Thursday. Big banks typically agree terms with hedge funds that allow them to cut ties at short notice, five sources from prime brokerages and hedge funds told Reuters. Prime brokerages may now refine due diligence processes and perform more thorough background checks on hedge funds, said Jim Neumann, chief investment officer of Sussex Partners, which advises investors on how they give their money to hedge funds. But many of these agreements mainly focus on the financial viability of the hedge fund, two of the sources said. One hedge fund manager said he was asked in his due diligence with the bank if he was approved by the UK regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority.

Persons: Banks, Crispin Odey, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, MS.N, Odey, Epstein, Michael Oliver Weinberg, JPMorgan Chase, JPM.N, Jeffrey Epstein, Bill Hwang, brokerages, Jim Neumann, Neumann, Archegos, Erika Kelton, Phillips, Cohen, Nell Mackenzie, Kirstin Ridley, Carolina Mandl, Dhara Ranasinghe, Elisa Martinuzzi, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Wall, Odey, Management, Financial Times, Tortoise Media, JPMorgan, Odey Asset Management, Reuters, CMT, Archegos Capital Management, Sussex Partners, UBS, Financial, Authority, Thomson Locations: London, New York

☆ Factbox: Who are Crispin Odey and hedge fund Odey Asset Management?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Here are some key facts about Odey, London-based OAM, the allegations, and their fallout:WHO ARE CRISPIN ODEY AND ODEY ASSET MANAGEMENT? Odey, 64, founded the asset management firm which bears his name in 1991. HOW BIG IS ODEY ASSET MANAGEMENT? Schroders and Canada Life last week moved to cut back their dealings with asset management businesses with links to Odey. It is looking increasingly unlikely, even though larger funds such as Odey Asset Management Group are made up of many funds with different trading strategies.

Persons: Crispin Odey, OAM, Odey, CRISPIN ODEY, Kwasi Kwarteng, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, James Hanbury, Hanbury, Peter Martin, Carolina Mandl, Nell Mackenzie, Elisa Martinuzzi, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alexander Smith Organizations: Odey, Management, Reuters, Financial Times, WHO, Asset Management, Conservative Party, Securities and Exchange Commission, Financial, Authority, Lawmakers, JPMorgan, UBS, CAN, Odey Asset Management, Inc, Carolina, Thomson Locations: London, Schroders, New York

LONDON, June 15 (Reuters) - Hawkish central banks have sent a resounding "no" to markets betting recession would force rate cuts soon, leaving money managers scrambling for direction as the second half of the year approaches. "Markets have been wrong not only in their interpretation of the data but of the central bank reaction," he added. "Even though inflation is coming down, you are still getting that phase were the central banks think they need to talk hawkishly about this." Canada last week restarted rate hikes, Australia has come off a pause and Norway may have to accelerate hikes next week. BofA now expects two 25 bps interest rate hikes from the Fed this year, JPMorgan sees only one more and Morgan Stanley sees none.

Persons: Jason Simpson, Shorter, BofA, Morgan Stanley, Mark Nash, Nash, Kaspar Hense, Michael Michaelides, Shamik, BoE, they're, Dhar, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Conor Humphries Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, State, Bank of Japan, Treasury, JPMorgan, BlueBay Asset Management, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, Canada, Australia, Norway, Shamik Dhar

For some, the answer to exuberant markets lies in the ample cash still sloshing around the financial system. Total global liquidity, a measure of cash and credit in the world economy, has risen to almost $170 trillion in June, Crossborder calculates, from $158 trillion in October. Central banks have added a net $1.7 trillion into money markets since November, it also estimates, a move that correlates with a risk-taking trend. But an alternative scenario is that U.S. money market funds, stuffed with cash after depositors fled regional banks in March, buy enough newly issued Treasuries to keep rates stable. "Liquidity is not a force that reverberates immediately into financial markets," said JPMorgan global market strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.

Persons: Michael Howell, Crossborder, Richard Clarida, Georgina Taylor, Ken Taubes, reverberates, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Morgan Stanley, Luca Paolini, Paolini, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson, Dhara Ranasinghe, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: U.S . Treasury, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Crossborder Capital, U.S, Reuters, BNP, JPMorgan, Apple, Thomson Locations: Japan, U.S

☆ Odey Asset Management freezes funds as clients pull money, prime brokers flee
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, June 13 (Reuters) - Odey Asset Management (OAM) is closing one fund and restricting money clients can pull from another, two investor letters showed, just as the hedge fund was scrambling on Tuesday to keep its prime brokers from ending vital relationships with the firm. Odey Asset Management has closed its Odey Swan Fund and is restricting the money clients can pull from its Brook Developed Markets Fund, according to investor letters seen by Reuters. An OAM spokesperson declined to comment but confirmed the letter about the Brook Developed Markets Fund and was not immediately available to respond to a request about the closure of the Swan Fund. He did not respond when contacted by Reuters on Tuesday about either the Brook or Swan fund. Brook Developed Markets Fund is open to retail investors and had about $216 million, as of the end of February, the latest data from Morningstar showed.

Persons: Crispin Odey, Odey, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Swan, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasinghe, Elisa Martinuzzi, Susan Fenton Organizations: Odey, Management, Financial Times, Tortoise Media, Reuters, JPMorgan, Swan, Swan Fund, Morningstar, Thomson

☆ Morning Bid: Markets in a spin ahead of interest rate decisions
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It's a big week for markets with interest rate decisions from the three major central banks coming one after another. And one take away from last week's surprise rate increases in Canada and Australia, is not to take anything for granted. The European Central Bank is tipped to deliver a quarter-point rate hike on Thursday, while on Friday the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy. Last week's rate decisions support this idea -- the Bank of Canada hiked rates last Wednesday to a 22-year high of 4.75%, having held rates steady since January. A day earlier, Australia's central bank raised rates by a quarter point to an 11-year high and warned of further tightening ahead.

Persons: Sergio Ermotti, Dhara Ranasinghe, Ed Osmond Organizations: Wall, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of, Bank of Canada, Citi, Federal Reserve, U.S . Treasury, Treasury, UBS, Credit Suisse, Thomson Locations: U.S, Dhara, It's, Canada, Australia, Bank of Japan, Europe, Swiss, Switzerland

☆ Factbox: Who are Crispin Odey and the hedge fund Odey Asset Management?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

June 10 (Reuters) - Crispin Odey, one of Britain's best-known hedge fund managers, is leaving Odey Asset Management following allegations of sexual misconduct, the firm's executive committee said on Saturday. Here are some key facts about Odey, his London-based hedge fund, the allegations, and the fallout:WHO IS CRISPIN ODEY AND ODEY ASSET MANAGEMENT? Odey Asset Management (OAM) is known for highly leveraged bets trading global equities, debt, currencies and commodities. Besides Odey Asset Management, the group also runs Brook Asset Management and Odey Wealth, a private wealth unit. Brook Asset Management and Odey Wealth, both part of the Odey Group, are run by different portfolio managers such as James Hanbury and Peter Martin, the chief executive of Odey Asset Management.

Persons: Crispin Odey, Odey, CRISPIN ODEY, Kwasi Kwarteng, ODEY, James Hanbury, Peter Martin, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Schroders, Carolina Mandl, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasinghe, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Odey, Management, Financial Times, WHO, Conservative Party, Odey Asset Management, Asset Management, Securities and Exchange Commission, Reuters, Financial, Authority, Inc, JPMorgan, UBS, Carolina, Thomson Locations: London, New York

Odey Asset Management "does not recognise the picture of the firm that has been painted" by the allegations, it told investors in a letter seen by Reuters. Within hours of the report being published, Wall Street firms including Goldman Sachs (GS.N), JPMorgan (JPM.N) and Morgan Stanley (MS.N) began reviewing their prime broking ties with Odey Asset Management, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. "We are confident our service providers will continue to work with us," an Odey Asset Management letter said later. Industry experts consulted by Reuters said that did not necessarily indicate a major change in culture in the City, however. A London employment tribunal last month awarded a former Algebris employee over 32,000 pounds in a sex harassment claim against the asset management company.

Persons: Crispin Odey, Odey, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, MS.N, Schroders, Evan Nierman, Megan Tobias Neely, Neely, retrained, Daniel Beunza, Davide Serra, Serra, Algebris, Yasmine Chinwala, Nell Mackenzie, Sinead Cruise, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Rosalba O'Brien Organizations: Odey Asset Management, Financial Times, Tortoise Media, Reuters, Odey, Wall, JPMorgan, FT, Financial, Bayes Business, Labour Party, New, Thomson Locations: City, London, Britain, New York

☆ Take Five: Skip, stop or go?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Leah Millis/File PhotoJune 9 (Reuters) - It's a week of the central bank heavies with the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan meeting. The Fed is tipped to stop with rate hikes (for now), the ECB, to keeping going (for now), while the BOJ remains in stop mode (for now). U.S. inflation numbers, Chinese data and a crunch moment for UBS and Credit Suisse means there's plenty happening. 1/ A LOT GOING ONMarkets get not one but two headline events with U.S. May inflation data out on Tuesday as the Fed kicks off its two-day meeting. For now, markets price in just one more increase this year, an outlook investors seem comfortable with, judging by the recent strong performance of U.S. stocks.

Persons: Leah Millis, Li Gu, Kevin Buckland, Ira Iosebashvili, Yoruk, Noele, Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, culls, Dhara Ranasinghe, Rae Wee, John O'Donnell, John Stonestreet Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, ECB, UBS, Credit Suisse, U.S, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Li, Shanghai, Tokyo, New York, Amsterdam, Zurich, China, China's, Swiss, Singapore, Frankfurt

☆ Goldman Sachs: "Fully orthodox" policy maker could raise Turkey rates to 40%
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The Wall Street bank, in an overhaul to a number of its forecasts for Turkey, said stabilising the economy "will require a large, and we think discontinuous, adjustment to the exchange rate." While guidance was for the monetary policy framework was still missing at this stage, the bank noted, a "fully orthodox policy-maker" would allow the exchange rate to adjust upfront and would raise the repo rate to a level where it anchored interest rates in the economy. "In our view, this suggests that an orthodox policy-maker would raise rates to 40%, the current level of deposit rates," Clemens Grafe said in a note to clients. Grafe added that once the exchange rate and inflation expectations stabilised, rates could be lowered quickly, possibly to 25% by end-year. Goldman Sachs also cut Turkey's GDP forecast to 2.3% year-on-year in 2023, from previously 2.9%.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Mehmet Simsek, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Clemens Grafe, Grafe, Karin Strohecker, Dhara Organizations: Thomson Locations: Turkey

☆ JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley review prime broking ties with Odey Asset Management -sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, June 8 (Reuters) - JPMorgan (JPM.N) and Morgan Stanley (MS.N) are reviewing their prime broking relationships with Odey Asset Management after allegations of sexual misconduct and bullying by Crispin Odey reported by the Financial Times and Tortoise Media on Thursday, sources familiar with the matter said. A source familiar with the matter told Reuters JPMorgan was also reviewing its relationship with Odey Asset Management. A source at one of the banks said the allegations of misconduct at Odey Asset Management conflicted with their standards. Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan declined to comment. Odey Asset Management did not respond immediately to a phone call and email requesting comment.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Crispin Odey, Odey, Morgan Stanley's, Nell Mackenzie, Elisa Martinuzzi, Dhara Ranasinghe, Catherine Evans Organizations: JPMorgan, Odey, Management, Financial Times, Tortoise Media, FT, Reuters, Odey Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Brexit

The Bank of Japan is the only major central bank that now has negative rates following aggressive tightening globally to combat inflation. It has hinted that it will alter yield curve control -- where it guides short-term rates at -0.1% and 10-year Japan government bond yield around zero -- at some point. Japanese investors hold around $1.84 trillion in foreign assets, according to Deutsche Bank. "Recent inflows into Japanese markets are mainly driven by the foreign investors," Murao said. "We do not really have a global champion such as Google, Amazon, or Meta in the Japanese markets," Murao added.

Persons: Florence Lo, Yuichi Murao, Murao, I've, Amanda Cooper, Dhara, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Nomura Asset Management, Reuters, The Bank of Japan, Nomura, Management, Equity, Treasury, Nikkei, Deutsche Bank, Apple, Visa, Toyota, Sony, PlayStation, Thomson Locations: Japan, Tokyo

The S&P 500 index (.SPX) rose 0.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) added 0.12%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) climbed 0.28%. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.37%, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was little changed. With major share markets all in the black, investors might think that stocks are set to rise further. Government bond yields - a proxy for borrowing rates - eased earlier after a European Central Bank (ECB) survey showed euro zone consumers had lowered their inflation expectations. Australia's central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point to 4.1% - an 11-year high - and warned that further increases might be required to ensure inflation is brought back under control.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, James Rossiter, Bitcoin, Nansen, Brent, Nell Mackenzie, Marc Jones, Dhara Ranasinghe, Mark Potter Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Fed, ECB, SEC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Bank of America Securities, Treasury, European Central Bank, Canada, Securities Senior Global, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of, Aussie, Reserve Bank of, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, U.S, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Government, Australia's, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Binance, Saudi Arabia

In the previous session, the index dropped as data pointing to tepid U.S. business activity sparked profit-taking following gains in the prior week. MSCI's broadest index of world stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) was largely flat, while Tokyo's Nikkei (.N225) gained 0.90% and China's blue-chip index (.CSI300) dropped almost 1%. Three months ago, the question was how fast would rate hikes come. Now, a pause and then more U.S. rates hikes could follow as a result of sticky inflation, said Mike Kelly, head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments. In oil markets, prices gave up most gains from the previous session after the world's top exporter, Saudi Arabia, said it would further cut output.

Persons: Toby Melville, Germany's DAX, Mike Kelly, We're, Gary Dugan, bitcoin, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasinghe, Mark Potter Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, REUTERS, Reserve, British Retail Consortium, Tokyo's Nikkei, Reserve Bank of Australia, Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, PineBridge Investments, Saxo Markets, Dalma, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, U.S, Saudi Arabia

☆ Fed 'skip' chatter triggers dollar's biggest weekly fall since January
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Australian dollar surged after an increase in the minimum wage there stoked bets for another raise in rates next week. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, has dropped nearly 0.8% this week, its biggest weekly loss since mid-January. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on Thursday "it's time to at least hit the stop button for one meeting and see how it goes", referring to the June 13-14 Fed meeting. Money markets are pricing in a roughly 29% chance of a June hike, down from near 70% earlier in the week. Even if a hike doesn't happen next week, markets expect one by autumn.

Persons: Fiona Cincotta, let's, Patrick Harker, Philip Jefferson, Guy Miller, Christine Lagarde, Joe Biden, Monday's, Ray Attrill, Dhara Ranasinghe, Kevin Buckland, Mark Heinrich, Mark Potter, Andrew Heavens Organizations: Federal Reserve, Australian, City Index, Philadelphia Fed, Reuters, Zurich Insurance, European Central Bank, U.S . Senate, National Australia Bank, NAB, Traders, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: U.S, City, April's, London, Tokyo

☆ Analysis: Germany leads big bond rally as inflation finally heads down
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Borrowing costs, or bond yields, in the benchmark euro area issuer are down at least 20 basis points (bps) this week , . Yet this week's notable moves suggest investors are plumping with the view that easing inflation and recession risks are strong bond buy signals. Traders now expect the ECB hikes to peak at around 3.7% by September, suggesting two more hikes from 3.25% currently. COMPLICATEDInvestors cautioned that the European inflation outlook remained more complicated than in the United States, where inflation broadly is down sharply from peaks. This week's fall in borrowing costs followed sharp rises the previous two weeks on bets for more rate hikes.

Persons: Kaspar Hense, Flavio Carpenzano, It's, Cosimo Marasciulo, Marasciulo, BlueBay's Hense, Oliver Eichmann, DWS, Eichmann, Yoruk Bahceli, Harry Robertson, Dhara Ranasinghe, Susan Fenton Organizations: Bank, British, Thursday's, Traders, BlueBay Asset Management, Capital Group, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, General Investment Management, Bank of England, NatWest, Pictet Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Germany, United States, Europe, Amundi, U.S, Britain, DWS

☆ Default wave imminent, will peak in 2024, Deutsche Bank says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Deutsche expects default rates to peak in the fourth quarter of next year. It forecast peak default rates to reach 9% for U.S. high-yield debt, 11.3% for U.S. loans, 4.4% for European high-yield bonds and 7.3% for European loans. The estimate for a U.S. loan peak default rate of 11.3% would be a near all-time high, compared to a peak of 12% during the 2007-2008 global financial crisis and 7.7% during the U.S. technology bubble in the late 1990s, Deutsche noted. Within the European high-yield bond market, real estate was the sector facing the greatest pressure and accounted for over half of all European high-yield distressed debt, Deutsche said. Still, that would not prevent a base case of rising default rates, Deutsche said.

Persons: Chiara Elisei, Dhara Ranasinghe, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Deutsche, U.S, U.S . Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: United States, Europe, Germany, U.S

☆ Cost of insuring against US default contracts further on debt bill hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, May 30 (Reuters) - The cost of insuring exposure to a U.S. debt default fell further on Tuesday, reflecting investor optimism over a tentative deal by U.S. lawmakers to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. Trading picked up on Tuesday after much of Europe and the United States were closed on Monday for holidays. U.S. five-year CDS fell to 41 bps from 56 bps at Monday's close, the data showed. Some investors though remained apprehensive about the debt limit agreement, as some of the proposed bill's provisions could undermine economic growth. "We suspect these fears are likely overdone," wrote Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto.

Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Karl Schamotta, Schamotta, Dhara Ranasinghe, Karin Strohecker Organizations: U.S, P Global Market Intelligence, Democratic, Republican, U.S . Treasury Department, Thomson Locations: U.S, Europe, United States, Monday's, ., Toronto

ET (1900 GMT), to discuss the debt ceiling bill. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell about 10 basis points (bps) to 3.72%, while thirty-year yields fell 8 basis points to 3.90%. "What is currently happening since yesterday shows where the debt ceiling premium was actually priced: mostly in bonds," said Ielpo. The cost of insuring exposure to a U.S. debt default meanwhile fell. "I wouldn’t blame the Treasury rally on the debt ceiling deal necessarily... the additional T-bill issuance, quantitative tightening, and difficult bank funding conditions now conspire to less favourable financing conditions to the economy," said Bouvet.

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