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☆ Dollar steady on mounting Fed hike bets, debt ceiling deal optimism
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 29 (Reuters) - The dollar held firm on Monday supported by growing expectations of further rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve, though news that a debt ceiling deal had been finalised drew some of the safe haven bids away from the greenback. DEBT DEAL DONE? "We've got a risk-positive response so far to the debt deal news," said NAB's Attrill. "Obviously there's still the need to get this debt deal over the line, but I think markets are happy to travel on the presumption that it will get done before the new X-date." U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen had on Friday said the government would default if Congress did not increase the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling by June 5, having previously said a default could happen as early as June 1.

☆ Dollar elevated as sticky inflation cements Fed hike bets, debt ceiling deal lifts optimism
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The yen's renewed decline has come on the back of rising U.S. Treasury yields, as bets grow that interest rates in the United States would stay higher for longer. Cash U.S. Treasuries were untraded in Asia on Monday, owing to the Memorial Day holiday in the United States, while futures were broadly steady. DEBT DEAL DONE? "We've got a risk-positive response so far to the debt deal news," said NAB's Attrill. "Obviously there's still the need to get this debt deal over the line, but I think markets are happy to travel on the presumption that it will get done before the new X-date."

☆ Dollar gains as debt deal optimism fires up investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

That eased fears of an unprecedented and economically catastrophic default, leading markets to revise their expectations of where U.S. interest rates could go. "As far as expectations for a June rate hike are concerned, those have risen significantly in the last week. Against the yen , the dollar was down 0.4% at 138.19 yen, having risen to a six-month peak of 138.745 earlier on. Among other major currencies, the Australian dollar took some heart from a pickup in commodity prices like copper and iron ore. In China, the yuan slid to its lowest since December, at 7.0365 per dollar, as data offered evidence of a sputtering recovery in the world's second-largest economy.

☆ Dollar gains as debt deal hopes rekindle hawkish Fed bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

That eased fears of an unprecedented and economically catastrophic default, leading markets to revise their expectations of where U.S. interest rates could go. The euro fell to a more than seven-week low of $1.0760, while the U.S. dollar index rose 0.07% to 103.57, flirting with Thursday's two-month high of 103.63. "It does remove one obstacle to the Fed continuing to raise rates." U.S. Treasury yields have climbed on the back of the hawkish Fed repricing and amid a pick up in risk sentiment. The two-year Treasury yield , which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, last stood at 4.2510%, while the benchmark 10-year yield was last at 3.6402%.

☆ Dollar buoyed by hawkish Fed expectations as debt deal eyed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, May 19 (Reuters) - The dollar firmed near a six-month peak against the yen on Friday on the back of rising U.S. Treasury yields, as optimism over debt ceiling talks in Washington raised expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates. The news helped calm fears of an unprecedented and economically catastrophic American debt default, leading markets to revise their expectations of where U.S. interest rates could go. The dollar stayed elevated in early Asia trade on Friday and last bought 138.40 yen , having risen to a near six-month high of 138.75 yen in the previous session. U.S. Treasury yields have climbed on the back of the hawkish Fed repricing and amid a pick up in risk sentiment. The two-year Treasury yield , which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, last stood at 4.2581%, edging away from a low of 3.964% at the start of the week.

☆ US dollar advances to seven-week peak after data, debt ceiling hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Another piece of data indicated a milder-than-expected fall in a business index to -10.4 from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve. The dollar index touched a new seven-week high of 103.38, and was last up 0.5% at 103.34 after the economic numbers. Against the yen, the dollar rose to a fresh five-month peak of 138.39 after the data and was last up 0.5% at 138.35 . Traders are pricing in around a 20% chance that the Federal Reserve raises its interest rate at its June meeting. The focus was also on debt ceiling talks.

☆ Debt ceiling hopes lift dollar to seven-week peak
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar hit a seven-week peak on Thursday after President Joe Biden and top U.S. congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy worked towards avoiding a damaging debt default, while investors scaled back Federal Reserve easing expectations. Biden and McCarthy on Wednesday underscored their determination to strike a deal soon to raise the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, having agreed a day earlier to negotiate directly after a months-long standoff. "In the short-term, the debt ceiling is win-win for the dollar," said Viraj Patel, global macro strategist at Vanda Research. "If it gets worse, you're going to see a global hard landing and you will want to be owning dollars. Traders are pricing in around a 20% chance that the Federal Reserve raises its interest rate at its June meeting.

Biden and McCarthy on Wednesday underscored their determination to strike a deal soon to raise the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, having agreed a day earlier to negotiate directly after a months-long standoff. "In the short-term, the debt ceiling is win-win for the dollar," said Viraj Patel, global macro strategist at Vanda Research. Traders are pricing in around a 20% chance that the Federal Reserve raises its interest rate at its June meeting. The dollar index firmed 0.2% to 103.08, near Wednesday's seven-week peak of 103.12. Elsewhere, the dollar rose to a ten-week high of 137.89 yen , extending Wednesday's nearly 1% gain against the Japanese currency.

As doubts grow about the strength of its economic recovery, foreign money has left China's markets and the currency has fallen 4% against the dollar since late January. Analysts at Nomura and Societe Generale say the yuan could soon head for 7.3, which as last plumbed in November. Reflecting that, the trade-weighted CFETS basket against which the People's Bank of China (PBOC) manages the currency, has dropped to 99 from 100 in February. THE CHEAP CURRENCYBecky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, expects the yuan will continue to depreciate. "The interest rate gap remains wide, so many hedge funds continue to use yuan as a funding currency," Liu said.

☆ Dollar firms on optimism over US debt ceiling talks, Aussie down after jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar held near a seven-week peak on Thursday, after President Joe Biden and top U.S. congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy worked towards avoiding a damaging debt default, while the Aussie dollar slipped after disappointing jobs data. Biden and McCarthy on Wednesday underscored their determination to strike a deal soon to raise the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, having agreed a day earlier to negotiate directly after a months-long standoff. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar index firmed near its seven-week peak hit in the previous session, and last stood at 102.86. "We got some positive headlines over the debt ceiling negotiations ... so that obviously supported market sentiment," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. The Japanese yen last bought 137.50 per dollar, having fallen nearly 1% on Wednesday.

☆ Dollar weakens, euro edges higher after inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Laura Matthews | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. Labor Department data showed April inflation cooled to 4.9%, the smallest year-over-year increase in two years. However, so-called core inflation remained sticky at 5.5%, suggesting interest rates may need to stay high for some time to tame it. "The U.S. dollar did soften modestly on the news that core U.S. CPI inflation edges a little lower in April. Economists polled by Reuters expected core U.S. consumer prices to rise 5.5% on a year-on-year basis for April. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a pause before expected rate cuts in September.

☆ Dollar awaits inflation data, rattled by debt ceiling impasse
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters) - The dollar seesawed on Wednesday after U.S. President Joe Biden and top lawmakers made no headway in the debt ceiling crisis, although volatility was minimal ahead of inflation data that could be instrumental in determining where interest rates head. The dollar held onto most of Tuesday's gains, thanks to another sharp rise in short-dated Treasury yields and to the nervousness that prevailed over Wednesday's U.S. inflation data. The euro was last down 0.1% at $1.0947, as was sterling , which eased 0.1% to $1.2605. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar index edged up 0.14% to 101.76, having earlier fallen by as much as 0.11%. The Japanese yen was steady against the dollar at 135.25 and fell 0.1% against the euro to 148.075, while the Australian dollar fell 0.2% to $0.675.

☆ Dollar braces for inflation, rattled by debt ceiling impasse
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters) - The dollar seesawed on Wednesday after U.S. President Joe Biden and top lawmakers made no headway in the debt ceiling crisis, although volatility was minimal ahead of inflation data that could be instrumental in determining where interest rates head. Biden, McCarthy and the three other top congressional leaders are set to meet again on Friday. The dollar held onto most of Tuesday's gains, thanks to another sharp rise in short-dated Treasury yields and to the nervousness that prevailed over Wednesday's U.S. inflation data. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index steadied at 101.64. Elsewhere, the Japanese yen was steady against the dollar at 135.25 and against the euro at 148.155, while the Australian dollar eased 0.1% to $0.6755.

☆ Dollar softer as US debt ceiling crisis unresolved, inflation data eyed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters) - The dollar weakened broadly on Wednesday after U.S. President Joe Biden and top lawmakers failed to break a deadlock on the debt ceiling crisis, though currency moves were marginal amid caution ahead of U.S. inflation data later in the day. The two, however, agreed to further talks and committed their aides to daily discussions about areas of possible agreement. "There has been a lot of attention lately on the debt ceiling issues," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). Also preoccupying investors was U.S. inflation data, with economists polled by Reuters expecting a 5.5% year-on-year increase in core consumer prices for April. "I think markets are already expecting the Bank of Japan to make some moves."

☆ Dollar edges up as markets await debt-ceiling talks, inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Laura Matthews | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"So I don't think that we're going to have a breakthrough today. And that might be why the dollar is a bit stronger." The release of closely watched U.S. inflation data on Wednesday is likely to set the tone for markets, after stronger-than-expected jobs data last week. "It's widely expected that we're going to get that quarter-basis-point hike, and then we'll see where they go from there," Doyle said. ========================================================Currency bid prices at 4:03PM (2003 GMT)Reporting by Rae Wee Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

SINGAPORE, May 9 (Reuters) - The dollar clung to modest gains against major currencies on Tuesday but remained rangebound as traders awaited U.S. debt ceiling talks and tried to digest how a host of conflicting economic data will influence monetary policy and global growth. Closely-watched U.S. inflation data due on Wednesday is likely to set the tone for markets, after stronger-than-expected jobs data last week. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index edged up 0.25% to 101.68, but remained near recent lows as traders eye a peak in U.S. rates. Sterling was broadly flat and bought $1.2599, ahead of Thursday's central bank policy meeting. ========================================================Currency bid prices at 10:18AM (1418 GMT)Reporting by Rae Wee Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dollar edges up as market looks to U.S. debt ceiling talks, inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Iain Withers | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, May 9 (Reuters) - The dollar edged up against major currencies on Tuesday as traders awaited clarity on U.S. debt ceiling talks and new inflation data for a clearer picture of the economic outlook and the Federal Reserve's likely rate-hiking path. Closely-watched U.S. inflation data due on Wednesday is likely to help set the tone for markets, after stronger-than-expected jobs data last week as the Fed considers how quickly to tighten rates as prices rise. Any Fed policy tweaks will have to be weighed against a backdrop of recent turmoil in the U.S. banking sector and a political impasse in Washington over resolving the country's debt ceiling and avoiding a default, analysts said. Elsewhere, sterling last bought $1.25975, down 0.1%, ahead of Thursday's central bank policy meeting. The Bank of England looks set to raise interest rates to 4.5%, as it tries to fight the highest inflation rate in Western Europe.

☆ Dollar rises slightly, sterling hovers near one-year high
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The offshore yuan last traded 0.1% lower at 6.9287 per U.S. dollar. The benchmark 10-year yield was last at 3.4995%, after rising more than five basis points in the previous session. There's still a tightening in credit conditions that is coming ... but overall, at this stage, the survey is not depicting a credit crunch ahead. The Aussie was last 0.05% lower at $0.67775, after having risen to a roughly three-week top of $0.6804 on Monday. The kiwi fell 0.2% to $0.6332, having similarly scaled a one-month high of $0.63585 the day earlier.

☆ Dollar edges up, sterling hovers near one-year high
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The euro was last 0.16% lower at $1.0987, while the Japanese yen slipped 0.1% to 135.24 per dollar. There's still a tightening in credit conditions that is coming ... but overall, at this stage, the survey is not depicting a credit crunch ahead. "The dollar didn't really get much of a kick on that," said Catril, referring to the survey. The kiwi slipped 0.11% to $0.6338, having similarly scaled a one-month high of $0.63585 the day earlier. Elsewhere, the British pound fell 0.06% to $1.26105, but was not far from the previous session's one-year peak of $1.2668, ahead of Thursday's central bank policy meeting.

☆ Yen set to snap 3-week losing streak on bank jitters, dollar slides
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Although ECB President Christine Lagarde signalled more tightening to come, markets pared back their expectations on how much further rates would rise. Traders have since priced in more aggressive rate cuts from the Fed, with Fed funds futures implying a small chance that cuts could come as soon as June and through to the end of the year. The Aussie and the kiwi were among the largest beneficiaries of the sliding dollar, each rising more than 0.5% and touching multi-week highs. "For the Fed's June decision, inflation data and employment indicators ... along with bank lending standards will be key to watch. The Australian dollar was last up 0.62% at $0.6735, after touching a two-week peak earlier in the session.

☆ Take Five: Sell in May?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The services component of the price data can gauge demand, but consumer and producer price data broadly paint a picture of deflation. April inflation data is out Thursday. At 10.1%, UK inflation is the highest in Western Europe. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics4/ SELL IN MAYConventional wisdom has it that May is the ideal point to take profit on equities and lay low until later in the year. "Sell in May and go away" is based on the premise that the best six-month period of the year for stock market returns is November to April, while the leanest is May to October.

☆ Dollar gains, euro dips after cautious ECB
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 4 (Reuters) - The dollar gained against the euro after the European Central Bank eased its pace of rate hikes, a day after the Federal Reserve hiked rates by 25 basis points and indicated that it may pause further increases. The Fed on Wednesday dropped from its policy statement language saying that it "anticipates" further rate increases would be needed. The dollar index was last up 0.30% on the day at 101.52. The greenback was last down 0.17% against the Norwegian crown at 10.73 after Norway's central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. ========================================================Currency bid prices at 10:18AM (1418 GMT)Reporting by Rae Wee Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Euro falls after dovish ECB
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The ECB eased the pace of its interest rate hikes on Thursday with a 25-basis-point increase to its three policy rates, the smallest since it started lifting them last summer. "The ECB is clearly striking a more balanced tone and the market is pricing a bit of that, the euro is depreciating and pricing for interest rate hikes at future meetings is coming down, but just a little bit." The Fed has guided markets away from the possibility of rate cuts this year, though markets are pricing them in nonetheless. The Norwegian crown took a short trip after Norway's central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. It initially softened sharply against the euro and dollar, but recovered.

The narrowing rate differentials between the U.S. and Europe, as markets price in more European rate increases than in the U.S., has been boosting European currencies in recent months. The Fed has guided markets away from the possibility of rate cuts this year, though markets are pricing them in nonetheless. The European Central Bank announces its rate decision later in the day. "So I think central banks, including the Fed, are at or very near the peak in their cash rates." The Norwegian crown took a short trip after Norway's central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected.

☆ Stock markets nervous about Fed pivot and banking sector
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"The Fed decision was widely expected, so it didn't provide much of a shock to financial markets," Tina Teng, market analyst at CMC Markets, in Auckland. "However, I think the whole economic playout is not positive, especially the recent banking rout from the regional banks, and those big banks taking over the smaller banks. It's not a good sign, and risks are spreading out into the wider banking system, which worries investors." E-mini futures for the S&P 500 fell 0.22%, reflecting the dramatic slide in regional banking shares after the close of U.S. markets. The Fed is trying to indicate a direction, and the market is looking further down the path than the Fed's willing to communicate."

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