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Alex Gerko's wealth is now estimated at $10.8 billion as his firm XTX has become a top global player. He is now number 182 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, which just calculated that his fortune doubled. The index added $5 billion to his wealth compared to the prior trading day. While revenue still trails Citadel Securities' $7.5 billion in 2022, XTX is emerging as one of the top players in global markets. The firm handles a trading volume of around $300 billion a day, involved in equities, commodities, currencies, and fixed-income.
Persons: Alex Gerko's, XTX, Alex Gerko, Stanley Druckenmiller's, Gerko — Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Deutsche Bank, XTX, Citadel Securities, Financial Times Locations: Wall, Silicon, Russian
A Two Sigma chief investment officer has taken a medical leave, Insider has learned. The firm announced the leave of Alex Ginsburg, CIO of equities, to investors and employees in July. A senior Two Sigma investment executive has taken a leave of absence from the firm, Insider has learned. Two Sigma chief data strategist Ali-Milan Nekmouche, who has been with the company since 2004, has been named as Ginsburg's replacement. Siegel did not leave the firm and the group ended up staying at Two Sigma, the Journal reported.
Persons: Alex Ginsburg, Jeff Penney, Timothy Reynolds, Ali, Milan Nekmouche, Ginsburg's, David Siegel, John Overdeck, Siegel, Overdeck, Ginsburg, Geoffrey Duncombe, Alex Morrell, Rebecca Ungarino Organizations: Sigma, Street Locations: amorrell
Small and mid-cap stocks are providing cash-flow opportunities, according to Bank of America. If you're looking for cash in the form of buybacks and dividends, small and mid-cap stocks may be a good bet, according to a Bank of America note from August 14. Earlier this year, the bank warned investors to remain discerning when it comes to buying in small-cap stocks. When an economy is on the mend, small-cap value stocks tend to rally ahead, leading the recovery by outperforming their larger counterparts over multiple years, according to David Wagner, portfolio manager for the SmallCap Value Fund at T. Rowe Price (PRSVX). Earlier in August, Bank of America held a virtual conference with executives from 20 small and mid-cap companies.
Persons: David Wagner, Rowe Price, Jill Carey Hall Organizations: Bank of America, Bank, America
He came up with a quantitative system that filters for growing and cash-generating companies. These 30 stocks are considered the most undervalued bets based on Risenhoover's methodology. In 2014, he turned to Dr. Wesley Gray, CEO and CIO of the asset-management firm Alpha Architect, to backtest the model. At the time, Gray had just co-authored a book on quantitative value investing that informed much of Risenhoover's thinking. Risenhoover recommends reviewing the stock's chart and its price action to decide whether you're comfortable with it.
Persons: Wilton Risenhoover, Risenhoover, Wesley Gray, Gray, Russell, Stocks, that's, I've Organizations: University of California, Alpha Locations: Los Angeles
Some Wall Street analysts are sounding the alarm for a coming sell-off in stocks. That comes as the S&P 500 enjoys its best year since 1927, gaining 18% from January. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. That comes as the S&P 500 enjoys one of its best years since 1927, largely thanks to Wall Street's excitement for artificial intelligence. But he sees the overall S&P 500 ending the year at 4,600-4,800, above current levels.
Persons: Eduardo Munoz JPMorgan, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Shannon Stapleton Wells, Scott Wren, Wren, Brendan McDermid, Rosenberg, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, REUTERS, Reuters BlackRock, Rosenberg Research, Dow Locations: Wall, Silicon
Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel says it's time to buy "sector neutral" stocks with earnings momentum but lagging price momentum. Names with earnings momentum Emanuel told CNBC on Tuesday that there's a group of stocks whose earnings momentum is "superior to peers." "We recommend remaining fully invested, shifting focus to a sector neutral quant screen of stocks whose EPS momentum is better than peers yet whose price momentum lags since the March inflection to Maximum Momentum," he wrote in a July 23 note. "Such 'Earnings Mo' to Price Mo'" stocks could be expected to outperform as price momentum leaders 'cool off,'" he wrote. But he said that the long-term story is "exceptionally robust," thanks to an expected "productivity boost" from China.
Persons: Evercore, Julian Emanuel, Emanuel, Price Mo, CNBC's Organizations: CNBC, Deere & Co Energy, Cheniere Energy, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Communication, Pinterest, Eversource Locations: China
The second-quarter earnings season is in full swing, and this is the busiest week of the season. Bank of America has found the 9 stocks most likely to beat earnings expectations in the coming days. Wall Street was ready for a tough first-quarter earnings season, with expectations low across the board. 9 stocks expected to beat earnings estimatesBank of America analysts screened for the stocks they think are most likely to beat analyst estimates this earnings season, using the following criteria. The resulting nine stocks below are the best bets for beating expectations this earnings season.
Persons: Oshung Kwon, Kwon, it's Organizations: Bank of America, Bank of, Industrials, of America
Drew Angerer | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesCentral banks are at "the end of the beginning" in their battle against inflation, as several factors keep core prices persistently high, according to top Societe Generale economist Kokou Agbo-Bloua. U.S. inflation cooled in May to an annual 4%, its lowest annual rate in more than two years, but core inflation rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 5.3% year-on-year. In assessing the current state of global policymakers' efforts to tame inflation, Agbo-Bloua quoted former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill's remarks in a 1942 speech: "Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. He suggested that this has helped to keep the labor market resilient, which will likely extend this lag time.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Drew Angerer, Kokou Agbo, Bloua, Winston Churchill's, we're Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Market, Getty, Societe Generale, British, CNBC Locations: Washington ,, Ukraine, Agbo
Both David Rosenberg and Rob Arnott see big disruption coming for the labor market. AI stocks are also overextended amid the current mania, they said. Rob Arnott says AI will evolve rapidly and upend the labor market. He added: "The implications of generative AI on the labor market will be one of upheaval and one of escalating job uncertainty." Beware of an AI-stock bubbleFor Arnott, AI will undoubtedly be good for bottom lines.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rob Arnott, Rosenberg, Arnott, Tim Boyle, aren't, Merrill Lynch, it's, Tesla, that's, Gluskin Sheff Rosenberg Organizations: Labor, Research, Bloomberg, Getty, North, Rosenberg Research Locations: North American, ChatGPT
The yield curve's inversions deepened in June after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank would likely raise rates two more times this year. Stronger-than-expected economic data on Thursday backed expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer. Treasury yields- which move inversely to prices - moved up, with 10-year and two-year yields hitting their highest since March 10 and 9, respectively, while some curve inversions intensified. The spread between one- and 30-year Treasury yields was as wide as 153 basis points on Wednesday, its biggest gap since 1981. Key areas of the U.S. economy, including housing and labor, have proven resilient despite higher rates.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Janet Rilling, Huw Roberts, Davide Barbuscia, Chuck Mikolajczak, Ira Iosebashvili, Sam Holmes, Aurora Ellis, Nick Zieminski Organizations: YORK, U.S, Treasury, Federal, Allspring Global Investments, Quant, Thomson Locations: U.S
Dollar index hits two-week high after data; yen remains soft
  + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Hundred dollar bills are seen in this photo illustraiton in Warsaw, Poland on Sept. 21, 2022. The U.S. dollar index climbed to a two-week high on Thursday after economic data showed the labor market remained on a solid footing, giving the Federal Reserve a possible cushion to continue raising interest rates. He said he did not see inflation coming down to the Fed's 2% target until at least 2025. The dollar index was up 0.204% at 103.150 after earlier climbing to 103.44, its highest level since June 13. The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen for a third straight day, hitting a fresh 7-1/2 month high of 144.90, as U.S. and Japanese central bank policy plans are expected to remain at opposite ends of the spectrum.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Kazuo Ueda, Huw Roberts, Roberts, CME's Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Commerce Department, European Central Bank, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Fed Locations: Warsaw, Poland, Bank, Europe, Spain, Italy, Swedish
AI's impact on the job marketRob Arnott"Every important disruption since the start of the industrial revolution has cost millions of people jobs. Millions of jobs will be lost to those who know how to use AI. "The implications of generative AI on the labor market will be one of upheaval and one of escalating job uncertainty. Are AI stocks in a bubble? Rosenberg"Advancements in AI technology, and its knock-on effects on profitability and productivity, is a legitimate investment thesis.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rob Arnott, Savita Subramanian, Cam Harvey, Jawad Mian, Jobs, Merrill Lynch, aren't, Rosenberg, Harvey, Arnott, Brad Cornell, Aswath, There's, that's, Savita, , capex, Mian Organizations: Industries, Investors, Research, Rosenberg Research, North, Bank of America Securities, Duke University, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, Tech, Software, Services, Professional Services, IT Services Locations: North American, ChatGPT, Asia, Taiwan
Two Sigma, the successful quant hedge fund, is dogged by two cofounders who don't get along. Disagreements between Overdeck and Siegel only surfaced publicly for the first time last week. The disclosure was highly unusual for a hedge fund since they generally have much lighter disclosure requirements than their public counterparts, experts say, making the filing all the more notable. The firm has been known mainly as a premier quantitative hedge fund since its founding. Then when it comes to planning for the next generation of leaders to take over from hedge fund founders, the transition can be difficult.
Persons: John Overdeck, David Siegel, Overdeck, Siegel, Mark Pickard, Jonathan Hitchon, Sarah Jacobs, Kevin Mullally, Mullally Organizations: Sigma, Street Journal, Overdeck, Wall Street, Business, University of Central Locations: New York, Manhattan's SoHo, University of Central Florida
Bank of America has named the European companies whose stocks are expected to perform robustly in the face of a possible economic downturn. It comes amid increasing signs that the European economy could be headed for a period of extended recession. Bank of America's proprietary Style Cycle model also shows that the region is facing a "recession phase." The forward cash yield measures how much cash a company is expected to generate for its shareholders over the next year compared to its current market price. The cash yield also includes returns through buybacks.
Persons: Intesa Sanpaolo, Paulina Strzelinska Organizations: of America, of, KBC, Eni, Nordea Bank, Barclays, Aviva, BNP, Bank, America's Locations: Europe, Belgium, Italy, Finland, Repsol, Spain, United Kingdom, France, buybacks, industrials
The central banks of the UK, Turkey, Norway, and Switzerland all raised interest rates yesterday. The Bank of England is the UK's central bank. Let's start with the Bank of England's decision to raise interest rates by 50 basis points and bring borrowing costs to 5%. Turkey's central bank, meanwhile, raised interest rates by 650 basis points to 15%, which was somehow less than markets expected. Just to cover our bases: Norway's central bank raised its core lending rate by half a percentage point, and Switzerland's policymakers hiked its benchmark rate by a quarter point.
Persons: Phil Rosen, Powell, Myron Jobson, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Spencer Platt, Jerome Powell's, Goldman Sachs, David Rosenberg, it's, Warren Buffett, Jason Ma, Nathan Rennolds Organizations: Bank of England, Bank of, Interactive, New York Stock Exchange, U.S . House, Dow, Getty, Apogee Enterprises, Homeowners, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, S3 Partners, BMO Capital Markets, Berkshire Hathaway, Gates Foundation Locations: Manhattan, Turkey, Norway, Switzerland, Maremagnum, Turkey's, New York City, U.S, New York, Los Angeles, London
An easy way to harness the power of AI quant models is to look at top holdings of ETFs, he said. But it's a tall task for individual investors — let alone institutions — to develop AI models for stock picking, Oh said. Oh said that the Qraft's momentum fund's top two holdings right now are Amazon (AMZN) and Meta (META). While it was the model that picked Amazon and Meta, Oh said they're solid fundamental plays. As for Meta, Oh said it's well-positioned for the AI boom as is one of the leaders in the space.
Persons: Francis Oh, , ChatGPT, I'm, Google's Bard, Oh Organizations: Vanguard's Hong, Qraft Technologies, Apple, Nvidia, AI, Equity, BTD, Fund, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Gamestop, Dow, Industrial, SolarEdge Technologies, Dow Inc, Enphase Energy, Meta Locations: Asia, Pacific, Vanguard's, Vanguard's Hong Kong
John Overdeck and David Siegel created hedge-fund giant Two Sigma, amassing billions in wealth. Here's the relevant section of the filing:There have been a variety of management and governance challenges at the Adviser. These disagreements can affect the Adviser's ability to retain or attract employees (including very senior employees) and could continue to impact the ability of employees to fully implement key research, engineering, or corporate business initiatives. Nor can it agree on the org chart, the management structure, corporate governance, or succession plans. These disagreements might hurt Two Sigma's ability to retain and attract star employees, and those employees' ability to actually implement research, tech, or business initiatives.
Persons: John Overdeck, David Siegel, Juliet Chung, Gregory Zuckerman, Chung, Zuckerman, Jamie Nash, Kleinberg Kaplan, I've Organizations: Sigma, Bloomberg, Wall Street, Management, Management Committee, Chief Investment Officers
Jump Trading exec Peter Deaner is leaving the systematic trading firm, people familiar with the matter said. Senior executive departures are relatively uncommon at the press-shy trading firm. Jump Trading Group's top executive in Europe is leaving the systematic trading firm after more than a decade. "Pete will be retiring from the industry in 2024, moving on from Jump Trading roughly at the end of Q1," the spokesperson told Insider in an email. Jump Trading International, the London-based subsidiary of the Chicago trading firm, has grown substantially since Deaner joined in the summer of 2012.
Persons: Peter Deaner, Deaner, Pete, Damien Couture, Verition, lockups Organizations: Companies, Couture, Bloomberg Locations: Europe, London, Chicago
At 31, Soeren Kuenzel runs Citadel Securities' FX team, overseeing hundreds of billions in trades. Just ask Soeren Kuenzel, the head of foreign-exchange trading at Citadel Securities who's now responsible for billions in complicated currency trades at just 31 years old. It was sponsored by Citadel, the hedge-fund firm led by the billionaire Ken Griffin, alongside the market maker Citadel Securities. Citadel Securities, launched by Griffin in 2002, is one of the biggest trading houses matching sellers and buyers of stocks, bonds, and currencies across the globe. He finished his doctorate at Berkeley in 2019 and began working that fall as a quant researcher at Citadel Securities full time in Chicago.
Persons: Soeren, Soeren Kuenzel, Kuenzel, Ken Griffin, Griffin, Fang Wu, Wu, It's, Yale's, I've, he's, that's, Alex Morell Organizations: Citadel Securities, FX, University of California, Facebook, Apple, Citadel, New York Stock Exchange, Chicago, Berkeley, Yale's men's, Cape, Cape Florida Lighthouse Locations: Berkeley, Miami, Europe, Chicago, Germany, Cape Florida
Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett has joined his colleagues in admitting he was too pessimistic in his outlook for stocks this year. In his weekly note to clients examining the flow of money through the market, Hartnett took a jab at himself, labeling his outlook the product of "A Bear of Very Little Brain." Further, he outlined several reasons why "bears like us have been wrong" in the first half of 2023. On the economy, "nominal GDP remained super-charged by fiscal stimulus/war, labor" while the labor market was "impervious to monetary policy in post-pandemic world," Hartnett wrote. These include deflation, emerging market stocks and "hard-landing plays" such as REITs and commercial real estate, banks, small-cap stocks, oil and China.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, BofA, Savita Subramanian Organizations: of America, Silicon Valley Bank, Fed & US, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Labor Locations: Silicon, China
After being one of the most prominent bears on Wall Street, Bank of America has changed its tune on stocks and sees pockets of select opportunities ahead. The firm's equity team has not changed its year-end S & P 500 target — it still sees the large-cap index finishing around 4,300, which implies little movement from the Thursday close of 4,293.93. "The bear market is officially over," Savita Subramanian, BofA's equity and quant strategist, said in a client note Friday. The firm also recommends strong-divided companies as "we are returning to a total return world." "We believe we are back in bull territory, which might be part of what it takes to get investors enthusiastic about equities again," Subramanian said.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, BofA Organizations: Bank of America, Federal Reserve
Chinese quants redouble AI bets amid ChatGPT frenzy
  + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
REUTERS/Thomas White/Illustration/File PhotoSHANGHAI/SINGAPORE, June 5 (Reuters) - Chinese quant hedge fund managers are rushing to explore ChatGPT-style tools, embracing the emerging AI technology that has sparked a global frenzy since the release of the widely popular Microsoft-backed OpenAI chatbot. His hedge fund already uses ChatGPT to better understand a company's fundamentals and avoid value traps, project earnings power, and identify investment opportunities and risks. A ChatGPT-like tool boosts quants' ability to process text-related data, said Feng Ji, chairman of Baiont Capital. Feng's hedge fund, backed by former Google China chief and AI veteran Kai-Fu Lee, has invested heavily in hardware to enhance computing power required for model-training. Regulators are looking for ways to tackle the impact of generative AI technology.
Persons: Thomas White, Steve Chen, Feng Ji, ChatGPT, Feng, Kai, Fu Lee, Feng's, Larry Cao, Cao, it's, Samuel Shen, Tom Westbrook, Himani Sarkar Organizations: Microsoft, Baiont, Google China, Flyer, Zhishan Investment, Wall, Regulators, HK, Baidu, CFA Institute, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, Shanghai, Beijing, Feng's Nanjing, China
But that’s not the case for everyone: The ultra-wealthy are doing just fine, and Wall Street firms are taking advantage of that. Germany, the largest economy in Europe, has slipped into recession as energy price shocks took their toll on consumer spending. In the past 10 weeks, JPMorgan Global Wealth Management opened 40,000 new accounts. Last year, it added around one new client with assets of $100 million or more per day, Mary Erdoes, head of asset and wealth management at the bank, told investors last week. Dollar General customers turn to food banksDollar General (DG) stock had one of its worst days ever on Thursday.
Persons: New York CNN —, that’s, JPMorgan Chase, Andy Cohen, Mary Erdoes, It’s, Goldman Sachs, Louis Vuitton, Dom Pérignon, Dior, Huw Roberts, Hermes —, Roberts, , Erwan, , Gregory Daco, Allison Morrow, Jeff Owen, Owen, Cash, They’re, Elisabeth Buchwald, Treasury hasn’t, Biden Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Wall, JPMorgan, Bloomberg, JPMorgan Global Wealth Management, Citigroup, International Monetary Fund, Lamborghini, HSBC, EY, Dollar, Treasury, US Treasury Locations: New York, China, United States, Germany, Europe, BlackRock
There has long been speculation that America's most-famous banker has plans to run for some sort of public office. The path from Wall Street to Washington is well worn, with plenty of high-profile executives taking up positions in the government. When most Wall Street executives were still afraid of the public cloud, she was ready to embrace it with open arms. Jon Gray — Treasury SecretaryBlackstone's president and chief operating officer has already had a brush with public office. The idea of him holding public office doesn't seem far-fetched.
Persons: Dan DeFrancesco, TikTok, I'm, we've, nabbing, Joe Biden's, Kevin McCarthy's, Jamie Dimon, Larry Downing, hasn't shied, Dimon, Dimon's, Bill Ackman, Kenneth Chenault —, Kathy Hochul, she's, Chenault, He's, Larry Fink —, We've, Larry, Fink, Adena Friedman, Friedman, Jon Gray —, Gray, Donald Trump, Gray's, Wall, Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Ken Griffin, Griffin, hasn't, Griffin hasn't, Ron DeSantis, he'll, Brian Moynihan —, Moynihan, Dan Schulman —, PayPal — he's, Taylor Swift, Kevin Mazur, Larry Fink, Franklin Templeton, It's, Rockefeller, Stephen Schwarzman, Warren Buffett, Cliff Asness, that's, Here's, Jeffrey Cane, Nathan Rennolds Organizations: JPMorgan, REUTERS, Bloomberg, American Express, Catalyst, Washington Post, BlackRock, SEC, CFTC, OCC, Nasdaq, Wall, Democrat, GOP, Florida Gov, Commerce, PayPal, Express, Virgin Mobile, Rockefeller Capital Management, Putnam Investments, Blackstone, Credit Suisse, UBS, Reuters, LinkedIn Locations: NYC, Washington, New York, Florida, Chicago, Miami, Ohio, Swiss, London
Warren Buffett has more in common with quantitative traders than it appears, Cliff Asness says. Buffett looks at companies' profits, risks, valuations, and many other elements of their businesses. "Yet he is very correlated with what quants would call the value factor, the low risk factor, and the profitability factor," Asness continued. Meanwhile, Buffett and other value investors look beyond those ratios to determine if a company is a bargain or not, he said. "That is not the holistic measure of value a guy like Warren Buffett, or any Graham-and-Dodd-style value investor, would look at," Asness said.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Cliff Asness, Buffett, , David Rubenstein, Asness, It's, Graham, Dodd, quants, Read, Warren Organizations: Service, AQR Capital Management, Berkshire Hathaway, Bloomberg Locations: Berkshire
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