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☆ JPMorgan top economist says the Fed should cut rates by a half point this month
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-05 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist of JPMorgan Securities, listens during a Bloomberg Television interview in New York on March 6, 2018. The Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting, according to JPMorgan's Michael Feroli. "We think there's a good case for hurrying up in their pace of rate cuts." "While inflation is still a little above target, unemployment is probably getting a little above what they think is consistent with full employment. This follows the unemployment rate inching higher to 4.3% in July, triggering a recession indicator known as the Sahm Rule.

Persons: Michael Feroli, JPMorgan's Michael Feroli, CNBC's, you've, Feroli Organizations: JPMorgan Securities, Bloomberg Television, Federal Locations: New York

☆ Job openings fell more than expected in July in another sign of labor market softening
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Job openings slumped to their lowest level in 3½ years in July, the Labor Department reported Wednesday in another sign of slack in the labor market. "The labor market is no longer cooling down to its pre-pandemic temperature, it's dropped past it," said Nick Bunker, head of economic research at the Indeed Hiring Lab. "Nobody, and certainly not policymakers at the Federal Reserve, should want the labor market to get any cooler at this point." While the job openings level declined, layoffs increased to 1.76 million, up 202,000 from June. "The still low level of layoffs and tick up in hires suggests the labor market is not cracking.

Persons: Dow Jones, it's, Nick Bunker, Krishna Guha, nonfarm Organizations: Labor Department, Labor, Survey, Federal Reserve, Global Policy, Central Bank, Evercore ISI

☆ Atlanta Fed President Bostic says officials can't wait for inflation to hit 2% before cutting
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic signaled Wednesday that he is ready to start lowering interest rates even though inflation is still running above the central bank's target. The Fed's preferred measure showed inflation running at a 2.5% rate in July, and just a slightly higher 2.6% core rate when excluding food and energy. His comments also come two days before what is expected to be a pivotal nonfarm payrolls report as most economists see the labor market losing momentum. However, the data and our grassroots feedback describe an economy and labor market losing momentum," he said. Indeed, he cited multiple factors indicating that inflation is progressing convincingly back to the Fed's target as the labor market moderates.

Persons: Raphael Bostic, Bostic Organizations: Atlanta Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed's Locations: Atlanta

☆ Dow falls by more than 600 points as September turns ugly
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-03 | by ( Lucy Bayly | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —Wall Street kicked off the month of September with a bust, after a disappointing economic report dragged down the Dow by 626 points, or 1.5%, Tuesday afternoon. Traders were already jittery ahead of a big month of economic news, from Friday’s key jobs report to next week’s inflation readings and then the long-awaited rate cut from the Fed mid-month. Investors were reacting to a weaker-than-expected jobs report that underscored fears that the Fed had mishandled inflation and pushed the economy right into a recession. Friday’s jobs report is arguably the most important piece of economic data that central bank officials will have to parse before their monetary policy meeting on September 17-18. International benchmark Brent fell to $73.70 a barrel and US benchmark West Texas Intermediate closed at just above $70 a barrel.

Persons: ”, Mark Hamrick, Brent Organizations: New, New York CNN, Wall, Dow, Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve, Traders, Nasdaq, Investors, Fed, Oil, OPEC, West Texas Locations: New York, stoke, payrolls, Libya

☆ Tom Lee, who's been correctly bullish, turns cautious and sees 7%-10% pullback
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-03 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Equity strategist Tom Lee expects the stock market will run into some turbulence over the next eight weeks, though he expects a pullback could be a buying opportunity for investors. Lee stocks could pull back by 7% to 10%, as investors navigate what's historically the weakest month of the year. The Stock Trader's Almanac shows the S & P 500 has averaged a 0.7% loss every September in data going back to 1950. "I think investors should be cautious for the next eight weeks," Lee told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Tuesday. Lee was one of the first on Wall Street to turn bullish on stocks during the depths of the pandemic and was correctly bullish heading into 2024 as well.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, CNBC's, Market's, He's Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ Is the Fed 'sleepwalking into a policy mistake?': Abrdn analyst calls for faster easing of rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-02 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

He pointed to economic data like non-farm payrolls, saying they were later revised to reflect a weaker economic picture. Akintewe said: "Is the economy already weaker than the headline data suggests and [the Fed] should already be easing?" "And once you've done that amount of easing, it takes six to eight months to transmit that." "The other question no one seems to ask is, why is the policy rate still at 5.5% when inflation is down [to] almost 2.5%? Like, do you need a 300 basis point real policy rate in this kind of environment with all the uncertainty that we're facing?"

Persons: abdrn, Kenneth Akintewe, Akintewe Organizations: U.S . Labor Department, of Labor Statistics, Fed, U.S, CNBC Locations: U.S

☆ The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator increased 0.2% in July, as expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core PCE also increased 0.2% for the month but was up 2.6% from a year ago. Core prices less housing, another key metric for the Fed, increased just 0.1% on the month. Elsewhere in the report, the department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said personal income increased 0.3%, slightly higher than the 0.2% estimate, while consumer spending rose 0.5%, in line with the forecast. Markets reacted little to the news, with equity futures pointing to a slightly higher open on Wall Street and Treasury yields higher as well. In recent days, policymakers such as Chair Jerome Powell have expressed confidence that inflation is progressing back to the Fed's 2% goal.

Persons: Dow, Joseph Brusuelas, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Dow Jones, Fed, department's, BEA, Treasury, RSM

☆ The Fed now will focus on the employment part of its mission — and for good reason
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-28 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Various indicators are pointing to a labor market that, if not in outright deterioration, is at least slowing. "Declines of this magnitude tend to occur when the economy is heading into recession and when the unemployment rate is on the ascent," he said. The unemployment rate almost always either heads up or down, with little evidence of extended plateaus. The current momentum is up, though the consensus estimate for August is that the unemployment rate will tick down to 4.2%, according to FactSet. "When you talk to firms ... it doesn't look like the labor market is not healthy," former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said Tuesday on CNBC.

Persons: Troy Ludtka, Jerome Powell, Beth Ann Bovino, Mary Daly, Nonfarm, Nikko, Loretta Mester, hasn't Organizations: Federal, Nikko Securities, Conference Board, Board, Labor Department, San Francisco Fed, Bloomberg News, Cleveland Fed, CNBC Locations: U.S

☆ A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns the Fed is behind on rate cuts — and that a downturn is coming despite 'off the charts' investor sentiment
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

"Incredibly, the Fed raised rates 500 basis points under a false presumption — by over one million — of just how robust the jobs market was," Rosenberg said. AdvertisementIn addition to the yearly revisions, monthly payroll revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics have also been poor more recently. Related storiesOne is a model that aims to enhance the yield curve as a recession indicator by taking into account US businesses' ability to repay debts and the Fed's National Financial Conditions Index. A soft-landing outcome, where the Fed avoids sending the economy into recession, is also still the consensus view on Wall Street. With inflation down under 3% and rate cuts almost surely on the way, such a scenario is still seemingly possible.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez, Vane, Chuck Prince, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, payrolls, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed, Treasury, Pantheon, Labor Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ Nonfarm payroll growth revised down by 818,000, Labor Department says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Wall Street had been waiting for the revisions numbers, with many economists expecting a sizeable reduction in the originally reported figures. "The labor market appears weaker than originally reported," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. "A deteriorating labor market will allow the Fed to highlight both sides of the dual mandate and investors should expect the Fed to prepare markets for a cut at the September meeting." Nonfarm payroll jobs totaled 158.7 million through July, an increase of 1.6% from the same month in 2023.

Persons: Jeffrey Roach, Jared Bernstein, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell Organizations: Labor Department, of Labor Statistics, BLS, Federal Reserve, LPL, Goldman Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-21 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A few facts worth considering:By the time the 2009 revisions came out (824,000 jobs were overstated), the National Bureau of Economic Research had already declared a recession six months earlier. (It would subsequently be revised higher in the two of those quarters, one of which was revised higher to show growth, rather than contraction. As a signal that job growth has been overstated by an average of 68,000 per month during the revision period, it is more or less accurate. In the cutting process, the Fed will follow growth and jobs data more closely, just as it monitored inflation data more closely in the hiking process. The jobs data could be subject to noise from immigrant hiring and can be volatile.

Persons: payrolls, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Amerant, National Bureau of Economic Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Goldman Locations: Florida, Sunrise , Florida

☆ Fed survey shows lows in employment, worries about finding work and dissatisfaction with pay
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The thrice-yearly measure of labor activity, confidence and satisfaction reflected growing concern in July about job security and an increase in those expecting to work past typical retirement age. Similarly, those who expected to become unemployed rose to 4.4%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from a year ago and the highest in the survey's history. On wages, satisfaction with current compensation dropped to 56.7%, down more than 3 percentage points from the same period in 2023. Finally, the expected likelihood of working past age 62 nudged up to 48.3% of respondents and increased to 34.2% of those saying they expect to work past 67, an increase of more than 2 percentage points. Following their most recent meeting, Fed officials described job growth as having "moderated."

Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, Workers Locations: U.S, nonfarm

☆ Goldman Sachs cuts odds of U.S. recession to 20% after retail and jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-19 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Goldman Sachs has cut its probability forecast for a U.S. recession to 20% shortly after raising it, as fresh labor market data sparked a reassessment of market views on the economy. Economists at Goldman earlier this month raised their 12-month U.S. recession probability from 15% to 25% after the U.S. July jobs report of Aug. 2 showed nonfarm payrolls grew by a less-than-expected 114,000. That was down from the downwardly revised 179,000 of June and below the Dow Jones estimate of 185,000. The report triggered widespread concerns about the world's largest economy, and contributed to the sharp — but ultimately brief — stock market sell-off at the start of the month. Goldman initially cited this as a reason for hiking the probability of an economic downturn — but changed tack on Saturday, when it wrote in a note that it saw the odds down to 20% because data released since Aug. 2 showed "no sign of a recession."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, nonfarm payrolls, Dow Jones, Goldman Organizations: Goldman, U.S Locations: U.S

☆ Here's how a week's worth of huge economic news will affect the Fed's decision-making
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

We have to remember, the Fed made one mistake, the transitory" call on inflation, said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. Specifically, the Fed is faced with how quickly and aggressively it should respond now that the inflation rate is waning . "Jay Powell says they don't want to be data point dependent, and I think that makes sense. I don't think you have signs of weakness in the economy. You don't have signs of inflation being controlled, and you don't have any signal for the Fed to switch focus."

Persons: Jerome Powell's, Jackson, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Richard Clarida, nonfarm payrolls, Powell, Jay Powell, Clarida, we'll, Komal, Kumar, He's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, LPL, CNBC, Sri, Kumar Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ Inflation cooled in July, adding to the case for interest rate cuts at the next Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

It's the first time the inflation rate has been below 3% since March 2021, and it adds to the case that the Federal Reserve could cut rates at its next meeting. Over the month, the consumer price index rose 0.2% in July. The Fed is watching for inflation to cool before committing to rate cuts. Many economists think it's well past time for the Fed to cut interest rates and have expressed worries about the rapidly cooling labor market. AdvertisementThe labor market is cooling off, and it might be harder to get a job than a few years ago.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Nick Bunker, Claudia Sahm, Powell Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Core CPI, of Labor Statistics, Fed, North America, Bureau of Labor Statistics, New Century Advisors, Federal Reserve

☆ Don't get too excited about this latest inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Stocks had a strong showing Tuesday after the latest U.S. wholesale inflation report came out. In other words, just because PPI rose less than expected, it doesn't mean investors should expect a tame CPI report on Wednesday. "Financial markets seem to react too much every month to PPI," said Stanley, the bank's chief economist. " The S & P 500 closed Tuesday's session nearly 2% higher, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.4%. The major averages are now well above the lows seen in Aug. 5, when the Dow and S & P 500 suffered their biggest one-day pullbacks since 2022.

Persons: Stocks, Stephen Stanley, Stanley, Dow, David Russell, We're Organizations: ISI, PPI, Santander U.S, CPI, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial

☆ These low-volatility stocks have a winning record and are attractively valued
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-11 | by ( Pia Singh | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

These stocks have low share price volatility over the past five years, and their total return — including share price gains and dividends — are greater than the S & P 500's over the past five years. Take a look at the names below: Health-care companies Amgen , UnitedHealth Group and AbbVie are among the names with low volatility and strong returns in recent years. Pharmaceutical company AbbVie's roughly 262% gain over the past five years is the highest of the stocks in the group. Amgen's share price has a 5-year total return of 104%, making it a steady grower, but still the slowest of the list. Other stocks with low volatility and attractive valuations include automotive replacement parts retailer AutoZone and insurance company Aflac .

Persons: Stocks, They're, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Mohit Bansal, TD Cowen, Kannan Venkateshwar, — CNBC's Christopher Hayes Organizations: CNBC, UnitedHealth, Pharmaceutical, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Humira, Barclays, Mobile

☆ American workers are stuck in place because everyone is too afraid of a recession to quit
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The stagnation has resulted in a rise in "stuck" workers — frustrated employees who say they want to quit a job, but are staying put as the fear of a potential recession looms in the backs of their minds. Google search interest for the search phrase "quitting job" is down 11% over the last year, according to data accessed from the search analytics tool Glimpse. AdvertisementGoogle search interest in the term "recession" has exploded 230% over the past month, Glimpse data shows. Google search interest in "recession" has more than doubled in the past month. Job market forecasters say the slowdown in hiring looks poised to continue, even if the Fed begins to loosen monetary policy.

Persons: —, That's, Amanda, It's, I've, Raymond Lee, Careerminds, Korn, Radhika Papandreou, Papandreou Organizations: Service, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Conference Board, Google, Fed, National Federation of Independent

☆ Disney and this AI stock are among the most oversold stocks this week and could be due for a bounce
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-10 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

With this in mind, CNBC Pro screened for the most overbought and oversold stocks on the Street, as measured by their 14-day relative strength index, or RSI. Alternatively, stocks are viewed as oversold with an RSI below 30, which suggests a possible buying opportunity. While shares are slightly positive on the week, up nearly 1%, the stock has tumbled 10% in 2024. TTWO YTD mountain Take-Two Interactive Software, year-to-date Other stocks that made the oversold group are artificial intelligence infrastructure play Super Micro Computer and Ulta Beauty . The stock closed out the week nearly 25% higher and is up more than 41% this year.

Persons: Stocks, Hugh Johnston, Mars, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman Organizations: Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, CNBC Pro, Disney, Software, Lockheed, RBC Locations: U.S

The S&P 500 advanced 0.47% to finish at 5,344.16. This week marked the most volatile week of 2024 for the market. The Dow on Monday tumbled 1,000 points, while the S&P 500 lost 3% for its worst day since 2022. At the Monday lows, the S&P 500 was down nearly 10% from its recent all-time high. It is not just equity markets that have had a volatile week.

Persons: Stocks, Spencer Platt, Jay Hatfield, ” Hatfield Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow, Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, Wall, Treasury, Capital Locations: U.S, unwind, Hatfield, “

Stocks ticked up Friday as the stock market built on its incredible comeback from Monday's violent rout. The broad market index ended the week just shy of completely reversing its weekly losses. The S&P 500 advanced 0.47% to finish at 5,344.16. Week to date, the broad market index was just 0.04% lower. The Dow on Monday tumbled 1,000 points, while the S&P 500 lost 3% for its worst day since 2022.

Persons: Stocks Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow, Federal Reserve

☆ Weekly jobless claims fall to 233,000, less than expected, in a positive sign for labor market
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled less than expected last week, countering other signs that the labor market is weakening. Stock market futures, which had been negative earlier, turned sharply positive following the 8:30 a.m. In the previous week, claims had jumped by 14,000, adding to worries that layoffs are on the rise. "If you're looking for additional weakness in the labor market, you'll need to find it somewhere else." Concerns escalated over the state of the labor market following last Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, which showed an increase of just 114,000 in July.

Persons: Dow Jones, Beryl, Robert Frick, nonfarm Organizations: Labor Department, Navy Federal Credit Union, Federal Reserve Locations: Michigan, Texas, U.S

☆ Markets are counting on the Fed to head off recession with sizeable interest rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +5 min

Disappointing economic data recently generated worries that the Fed missed an opportunity at its meeting last week to, if not cut rates outright, send a clearer signal that easing is on the way. In the past, the Fed has implemented just nine such cuts, and all have come amid extreme duress, according to Bank of America. Lacking a catalyst for an intermeeting cut, the Fed is nonetheless expected to cut rates almost as swiftly as it hiked from March 2022-July 2023. Why wait?”LaVorgna, though, isn’t convinced the Fed is in a life-or-death battle against recession. Still, any quakes in the data, such as Friday’s downside surprise to the nonfarm payrolls numbers, could ignite recession talk quickly.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Steven Blitz, ”, Andrew Hollenhorst, ‘, ’ ”, Michael Gapen, Powell, Joseph LaVorgna, “, “ They’ll, isn’t, Goldman Sachs, David Rosenberg Organizations: Federal Reserve, TS Lombard, Fed, Citigroup, Bank of America, Nikko Securities, Rosenberg Research Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Nikko

☆ Investors believe the fears about the slowing economy are overblown and market is overreacting
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The S & P 500 is off by nearly 9%, and it could soon join the tech-heavy index. .VIX 1D mountain VIX On Wall Street, however, many investors expect the fears of a slowing economy are overdone, and that markets are overreacting. "We don't see an earnings recession, we don't see an economic recession," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. The strategist expects the S & P 500 could fall into a correction, somewhere between 10% and 15%. To be sure, investors who aren't expecting a recession say any weakness in the consumer should continue to be monitored.

Persons: It's, Stocks, Mark Malek, Siebert, Malek, nonfarm, John Butters, —, Sam Stovall, Stovall, that's, aren't, Siebert's Malek, Jamie Meyers, he's, we've, it's, I've, Meyers, CFRA's Stovall Organizations: Nikkei, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Treasury, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta's, Bank of America, CFRA, Nvidia Locations: Japan, U.S

☆ Biggest concern is the market sell-off becoming a 'self-fulfilling prophecy,' research firm warns
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"Our biggest concern is that the market sell-off becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy causing corporate CEOs to cut back on investments and consumers to pull back on spending leading to further cuts and a recession," the analysts added. "In our view, the direct impact of these steep market declines is limited," they said in a note published Monday. Sustained market declines in the wake of the recent global sell-off could become a "self-fulfilling prophecy" that eventually leads to a recession, Morningstar DBRS analysts warned. The analysts also said that the impact of the market volatility on banks is likely to be limited, even if further market declines materialize, or if the U.S. enters a recession. There was also "no material impact" expected for capital management by banks in Japan, a region that also saw steep declines.

Persons: Morningstar, Nonfarm payrolls Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Global, Japan's Nikkei, Tech, Federal Reserve, Morningstar, Congressional, U.S, Capital Locations: New York City, U.S, Japan

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