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“So far, the labor market has adjusted slowly, and the unemployment rate has only edged up. The industries that were most likely to advertise part-time work as of May were beauty and wellness; personal care and home health; retail; food preparation and service; and sports, Indeed said. During the Great Recession from 2007 to 2009, part-time work rose sharply, according to research from the San Francisco Fed. “There was this rise in part-time work when the economy and the labor market were doing well coming out of the pandemic,” Culbertson told CNN. The US Labor Department releases June figures gauging the state of the labor market, including monthly job growth, wage gains and the unemployment rate.
Persons: Mary Daly, ” Daly, Daniel Culbertson, ” Culbertson, Alicia Wallace, Friday’s, Jerome Powell, John Williams Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, Washington CNN — Companies, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Commonwealth Club World Affairs of, CNN, Commerce Department, Commerce, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, European Central Bank, US Labor Department, Constellation Brands, Constellation Brands . New York Fed, US Commerce Department, New York Fed Locations: Washington, Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California, Constellation Brands .
A 15% year-to-date total return in the S & P 500 is the 21 st best run through June since 1900, according to Goldman Sachs. The S & P 500 since the October 2023 correction low is up 33% for an annualized total return pace of 56%. The S & P has gone eight sessions without a move of as much as half a percent. True in magnitude: The market-cap-weighted S & P 500 has outgained its equal-weighted version by more than ten percentage points this year. Not only haven't up days been broadly inclusive, the direction of the S & P 500 has been running inverse to the daily breadth over the past month.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Sharpe, it's, we'd, I've, What's, Jeff deGraaf, Trump, We've, Poor's, what's Organizations: Nvidia, Walgreens, Nike, Apple, Technology, Communication Services Locations: hiccups
The U.S. stock market will be closed Thursday for the Fourth of July holiday. Economic data The main event is Friday's June nonfarm payrolls report, which is among the most important monthly data releases for investors. The ADP report isn't as market moving as the nonfarm payrolls report, but expect investors to use to game the nonfarm payrolls report out later in the week. The June ISM Services report on Wednesday also will shed light on services in the U.S. economy. ET: Nonfarm Payrolls (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long STZ.
Persons: Dow, we're, Jim Cramer, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Democrats —, Thursday's, , we'll, nonfarm payrolls, Dow Jones, Payrolls, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Michael Nagle Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Walgreens, Nike, Republicans, Democrats, Energy, Utilities, Constellation Brands, Labor, Corona, Cinco, Industrial, Markets, CNBC, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: U.S
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers remarks during a press conference following the announcement that the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, in Washington, U.S., June 12, 2024. The U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank could move to cut interest rates in September as key data provides further signs that inflation is cooling in the U.S. and the euro zone, a Morgan Stanley strategist said Friday. "We're more optimistic that both the Fed and ECB will cut rates in September," he told "Squawk Box Europe." And I think, for the Fed, inflation is continuing to fall," he added. A majority of economists polled by Reuters now anticipate the Fed will cut interest rates from its current range of 5.25% to 5.50% this September, with a further trim projected later in the year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Morgan Stanley, Andrew Sheets, Sheets Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, CNBC, Fed, ECB, Reuters Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Europe
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFerguson: A positive PCE report could be meaningful for the FOMC this time aroundRoger Ferguson, former Fed vice chairman and past president & CEO of TIAA, discusses what to expect from today's PCE data, and what slowing inflation could mean for potential rate cuts this year and next.
Persons: Ferguson, Roger Ferguson Organizations: PCE
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Jim Cramer described the PCE report as "very good," representing an encouraging sign that the central bank's fight against inflation has been working. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jim, Donald Trump's, Friday's, there's, Raymond James, Eaton, Jim Cramer's, DOV, ETN Organizations: CNBC, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow, Apple, Vision, Nvidia Locations: China, Hong Kong, Japan, U.S, Dover
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSan Francisco Fed President Mary Daly: PCE data shows us that monetary policy is workingSan Francisco Fed President Mary Daly joins 'Squawk Box' at the Aspen Ideas Festival to discuss the new PCE data and what this data suggests about the overall economy. NBCUniversal News Group is the media partner of the Aspen Ideas Festival.
Persons: Mary Daly Organizations: San, Fed, San Francisco Fed, Aspen Ideas, NBCUniversal
Treasury yields inch higher ahead of PCE inflation data
  + stars: | 2024-06-28 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by one basis point to 4.2980%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.7244% after rising by less than one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher on Friday as investors awaited the latest personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's favored inflation measure. Investors are looking to the release of the latest inflation data that could provide hints about the state of the economy and the path ahead for monetary policy. Federal Reserve policymakers have frequently indicated they would only move to cut rates once data showed that inflation was easing toward the 2% target.
Persons: Michelle Bowman Organizations: Treasury, Federal, PCE, Reserve, Traders
May marked the lowest annual rate since March 2021, which was the first time in this economic cycle that inflation topped the Federal Reserve's 2% target. An important economic measure for the Federal Reserve showed Friday that inflation during May slowed to its lowest annual rate in more than three years. Including food and energy, headline inflation was flat on the month and also up 2.6% on an annual basis. Outside of the inflation numbers, the Bureau of Economic Analysis report showed that personal income rose 0.5% on the month, stronger than the 0.4% estimate. Shelter-related costs have proven stickier than Fed officials have anticipated and have helped keep the central bank from reducing interest rates as expected this year.
Persons: Dow Jones, Seema Shah Organizations: Dow, Commerce Department, Federal, Asset Management, Gross, Atlanta Fed Locations: PCE
US indexes ended the day lower, despite market excitement over the latest PCE data. The stock market closed 2024's first half strongly, with the S&P 500 up nearly 15%. "The soft inflation data will build the case that the Fed can start cutting rates in the coming months," LPL Financial chief economist Jeffrey Roach said. Currently, futures markets are pricing in the odds of twoThe soft inflation reading was not enough to keep the indexes in the green through Friday, but the stock market still strongly closed out the first half of 2024. Could these be harbingers of weakness to come, or will they take over as market leaders in the second half?"
Persons: , Jeffrey Roach, that's, David Morrison, Dow, Russell Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Financial, Here's
London CNN —President Joe Biden had a shaky performance in last night’s presidential debate, triggering panic in the Democrat camp. Former President Donald Trump, meanwhile, repeated multiple falsehoods while doubling down on his record of cutting taxes and hiking tariffs during his first presidential term. If repeated in a second Trump term, many economists fear that kind of agenda could stoke inflation at a critical moment and add to America’s rapidly growing debt mountain. That could pull the typical year-end election relief rally forward, said Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research. The US dollar has also been reactive — it edged higher as initial CNN polling found that Trump was viewed as the winner of the debate.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, shrugged, , Keith Lerner, Barack Obama, Trump, Lerner, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Antonio Ernesto Di Giacomo, , Goldman Sachs ’ Scott Rubner, Jonas Goltermann, Emmanuel Macron, Katie Nixon, France’s, CDK, Ramishah Maruf, Eva Rothenberg, aren’t, they’ve, Scott Campbell, CNN they’ve, Jordan Valinsky, Tim Wentworth Organizations: London CNN, Democrat, Trump, , Biden, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Investors, Capital Economics, CNN, Renaissance, Northern Trust Wealth Management, CAC, CDK, Auto, Capital City Buick GMC, Bloomberg, Walgreens Locations: France, , North America, United States, Canada, Berlin , Vermont, Eastern Europe, America
US stocks rose Friday as traders took in new inflation data from the Fed's preferred price gauge. PCE inflation cooled to 2.6% last month, the lowest pace of price growth in three years. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementUS stocks jumped on Friday as traders took in fresh inflation data, which showed price pressures continuing to cool off in May. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Friday:AdvertisementIn commodities, bonds, and crypto:
Persons: , Seema Shah Organizations: Service, Treasury, Federal, Asset Management, Nasdaq, Nvidia Locations: PCE, Here's
Gold set for third quarterly gain; traders await US inflation data
  + stars: | 2024-06-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices eased on Friday, but were set for a third straight quarterly rise, while investors looked forward to U.S. inflation data due later in the day for more clarity on the Federal Reserve's interest rate-cut timeline. After adding to its gold reserves for 18 consecutive months, official data from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) showed its holdings were flat in May. A survey by the World Gold Council, however, found that more central banks may increase gold reserves within 12 months. Gold rose more than 1% in the previous session after data showed a continued, though moderate, slowdown in U.S. economic activity. A soft set of PCE figures is required to keep hopes of Fed easing alive and further support gold, City Index senior analyst Matt Simpson said.
Persons: Ilya Spivak, Michelle Bowman, Matt Simpson Organizations: Heraeus, Solar, People's Bank of China, World Gold Council, City Index Locations: Budapest, Hungary, U.S, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPeople are too optimistic about the prospect of many rate cuts, says Mercatus' Veronique De RugyVeronique De Rugy, political economy chair at the Mercatus Center, Ben Harris, Brookings Institution economic policy director, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'Squawk Box' to react to May's PCE report and more.
Persons: Mercatus, Veronique De Rugy Veronique De Rugy, Ben Harris, Steve Liesman Organizations: Mercatus, Brookings, PCE
Stocks edged higher on Thursday ahead of PCE inflation data set to be released on Friday. Jobless claims rose less that expected last week, with 233,000 people seeking unemployment benefits. AdvertisementUS stocks edged higher on Thursday as traders assessed corporate earnings and waited on new inflation data to help inform rate-cut bets heading into the second half of 2024. AdvertisementOn the macro front, jobless claims were lower than expected, declining by 6,000 to 233,000 for the week ending June 22. Finally, traders are preparing to digest the latest personal consumption expenditures data, which is the Fed preferred inflation measure.
Persons: Walgreen, , they've, Chris Zaccarelli Organizations: Micron, Service, Nvidia, Walgreens, Federal Reserve, Here's
Stocks ended Thursday slightly higher ahead of a key update on inflation. PCE for May will be published on Friday morning, providing new hints about when rate cuts may be coming. Chip firms Nvidia and Micron dipped in Thursday's session, though the broader Nasdaq edged higher. Bond yields dipped ahead of the new data, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling about two basis points to 4.292%. "More recent data have moved in the right direction, but not by enough to convince the Fed that inflation is whipped."
Persons: Stocks, , economy's, Bill Adams, Michelle Bowman, Keith Gill Organizations: PCE, Nvidia, Micron, Nasdaq, Service, Commerce Department, Treasury, Friday's PCE, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank, Fed, Here's Locations: Friday's, U.S, Chewy
Gold prices steadied on Thursday after falling to a two-week low in the previous session, while investors awaited U.S. inflation data for insights into how soon the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Gold prices steadied on Thursday after falling to a two-week low in the previous session, while investors awaited U.S. inflation data for insights into how soon the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Data due this week include the U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product estimates are due at 1230 GMT and the personal consumption expenditures inflation data on Friday. "Gold prices remain tangled in a tug of war between a less dovish Fed and high levels of geopolitical tension," analysts at BMI said in a note dated Wednesday. "The main driver of easing gold prices in the longer term will be greater risk-on sentiment as the global economy recovers in the later part of the decade."
Persons: Tim Waterer, Michelle Bowman, Waterer Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, KCM Trade, U.S ., Fed, BMI Locations: .
Add to that the noise surrounding the US election, and it could be a rougher second half. Central Banks in Canada and the eurozone have both cut interest rates, but inflation rose in both of those regions last month. Australia, meanwhile, saw its inflation rate rise to 4% this week, stoking fears that the Reserve Bank of Australia could soon move to raise rates again. It was already well known that no documentation was found to show who worked on the door plug. Without the bolts, the door plug incident was pretty much inevitable.
Persons: London CNN —, they’ve, Michelle Bowman, she’s, Mary Daly, Austan Goolsbee, stoking, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, , José Torres, Torres, wouldn’t, Joseph Stiglitz, Trump, Trump’s, Max, , Al Michaels, Michaels, Peacock, ” Michaels, , CNN Michaels, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, London CNN, Federal Reserve, foibles, San Francisco Fed, Chicago Fed, Central Banks, Reserve Bank of Australia, Interactive Brokers, Treasury, Trump, Peterson Institute, Oxford Economics, Allianz, CNN, Boeing, Alaska, Alaska Airlines, National Transportation Safety Board, Alaska Air, NBC, Summer Games, Olympics Locations: London, Canada, Australia, Renton , Washington, Paris,
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBofA Securities explains why Yen might weaken to 163 against the dollar by SeptemberClaudio Piron of BofA Securities says it will take "more" than a nice PCE report to get dollar-yen "off the hook".
Persons: Claudio Piron Organizations: BofA Securities
There could be some pretty good inflation news on the way from the Commerce Department when it releases a key economic report Friday. If that date rings a bell, it's when core PCE first passed the Fed's coveted 2% inflation target during this cycle. Should the core PCE price forecasts transpire, it will serve as a milestone of sorts. "We are in line with [the forecast] that the PCE core pricing data will come in soft," said Beth Ann Bovino, chief economist at U.S. Bank. In addition to the inflation numbers, the Commerce Department at 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Dow Jones, Beth Ann Bovino, It's, pocketbooks, Lisa Cook, Cook, Bovino Organizations: Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Fed Locations: Brooklyn , New York
Stock futures are near flat Thursday night as traders await closely followed inflation data. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped 36 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures ticked up 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.2%. In after-hours action, Nike shares slipped more than 12% after the athletic retailer cut its full-year guidance. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core PCE is forecast to come in 0.1% higher on the month and 2.6% on an annualized basis.
Persons: Foot Locker Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Nike, PCE, Dow, Federal, Fed
Risk sentiment was also capped as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials kept near-term U.S. rate cut expectations in check in a boost to the dollar. The comments along with data showing a stable housing market kept expectations in check over when and by how much the Fed will cut rates. Markets are pricing in 47 basis points of easing this year, with a rate cut in September pegged at 66% probability, CME FedWatch tool showed. In the currency market, the dollar index , which measures the U.S. unit against six peers, was steady at 105.64, while the euro was at $1.0715. The yen touched a 34-year low of 160.245 per dollar on April 29, prompting Tokyo to spend roughly 9.8 trillion in late April and early May to support the currency.
Persons: Androniki, Lisa Cook, Cook, Michelle Bowman, Selena Ling, OCBC, OCBC's Ling, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, . Federal, Reuters, Bank of Japan's, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SINGAPORE, U.S, Asia, Pacific
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. Amazon CEO, Andy Jassy speaking with CNBC's Jim Cramer on Mad Money in Seattle, WA.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Andy Jassy, CNBC's Jim Cramer, Mad Organizations: CNBC, Apple, Netflix, Federal Reserve, Web Services, Micron, Jefferies, Walgreens, McCormick, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Amazon Locations: Seattle , WA
US stocks ticked lower on Wednesday. Major averages ticked lower, while bond yields rose. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementUS stocks slumped on Wednesday, with major averages down as bond yields rose as Nvidia shares wavered and investors eyed fresh economic data. Nvidia shares slid as much as 1.2% in early-morning trading before paring losses, trading about 0.25% higher shortly after the opening bell.
Persons: , Morrison, Dow Jones, Michelle Bowman Organizations: Nvidia, Service, Fed, Treasury, Here's
The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.7306% after rising by close to four basis points. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Wednesday as investors considered the latest comments from Federal Reserve officials about monetary policy and awaited key economic data. Investors digested remarks from Federal Reserve officials about the U.S. economy and the outlook for interest rates. Bowman also did not take further interest rate hikes off the table. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Lisa Cook on Tuesday said she only expects little change to inflation rates this year, but sees inflation "slowing more sharply" next year.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Lisa Cook Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Investors, PCE Locations: U.S
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