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☆ Student loan payments are back. Here’s where some Americans are trimming their budgets
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +14 min

Student debt relief activists participate in a rally at the US Supreme Court on June 30, 2023 in Washington, DC. “Of course, the lowest-earning households still collectively owe around $7 billion a year in student loan repayments. After the Supreme Court dashed any hopes of loan forgiveness, more Americans started making loan payments before the official repayment period, as well as interest, kicked in. “It’s just all the supplemental spending, a lot of that will disappear so that we can make room for the [student loan] payments,” he said. Jonnisha McCleod was able to wipe out $12,000 of her student loan debt.

Persons: Minneapolis CNN —, they’re, ”, Justine Lyons, “, pesky, Lyons, — Lyons, Robin Nathan “ It’s, you’ve, it’s, Kevin Dietsch, Emerson Sprick, Biden, Sprick, Shannon Seery, Wells, ” Seery, Nancy Vanden Houten, Brian Snyder, Snyder, “ It’s, Megan Lopez, ” Lopez, you’re, Logan Ricketts, Jamie, they’ve, ” Logan, Jonnisha, ” McCleod, ’, McCleod, Jonnisha McCleod, I’m, “ I’m, Katrice Williams, Williams couldn’t, Edna Monroy “, Williams Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, National Student, Federal Reserve Bank of New, US, Biden, New York Fed, Coalition, Department of Education, Education Department, CNN, Oxford, Oxford Economics, SAVE, Cleveland State University College of Law, Trump Locations: Minneapolis, Decatur , Georgia, States, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Washington , DC, Wells Fargo, Baltimore , Maryland, Las Vegas, Cedar Park , Texas, Omaha , Nebraska, undergrad, Cleveland , Ohio

☆ Indian inflation seen easing to 5.50% in Sept on softening food price rises: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Rises in food prices, which make up about half the consumer price index (CPI), continue to cool from recent peaks after the Indian government enacted a series of measures to boost supply. "Having said that, the persistent part of the food inflation problem remains there, which is cereals, pulses and spices, and I think the RBI can't do much about it anyway." Rising crude oil prices are also likely to keep inflation elevated in the world's third-largest oil importer. Oil prices rose around 3% on Monday to trade around $90 a barrel. "Oil prices ... are likely to remain high over the remainder of the year on global supply concerns," said Alexandra Hermann at Oxford Economics.

Persons: Amit Dave, Dhiraj Nim, Alexandra Hermann, Milounee Purohit, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Reserve Bank of India's, CPI, ANZ Research, Oxford, Inflation, Thomson Locations: Ahmedabad, India, BENGALURU

[1/2] An employee hiring sign is seen in a window of a business in Arlington, Virginia, U.S., April 7, 2023. The report will be released at 8:30 a.m. (1230 GMT), based on surveys conducted before a United Auto Workers strike could influence the outcome. "We think the Fed would like to see a bit more evidence of cooling labor market conditions than we expect," Oxford Economics lead U.S. economist Nancy Vanden Houten wrote this week. But she said that wage gains were likely to prove a bit stronger than the month before. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Nancy Vanden Houten, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Wage, Fed, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, Oxford

☆ China’s economy will be hobbled for years by the real estate crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Absorbing this “excess capacity” in the property sector will inevitably hurt China’s economic growth, according to Garcia-Herrero. The money from the sales funded their breakneck expansion, making real estate moguls some of the country’s richest people. The strategy largely worked until about three years ago when the Chinese government cracked down on excessive borrowing by the real estate industry because it was worried about the risk of financial instability. But overall, the property sector has contracted severely as it adjusts to a collapse in demand. “A fundamental rewiring of China’s economy will necessitate a focus on developing new industries, improving productivity, and bolstering rental markets,” said analysts from Stanford University and the ASPI.

Persons: ”, Alicia Garcia, Herrero, Garcia, they’re, Evergrande, Xu Jiayin, Xi Jinping, ” Mark Williams, Sheana Yue, Zichuan Huang, “, — Michelle Toh Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Investment, Asia Pacific, Getty, Bank, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Regulators, Capital Economics, People’s Bank of China, Oxford Economics, Stanford University, Asia Society Policy Institute, Oxford Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Natixis, Wuhan, China's, Hubei, Japan

☆ Bank of Japan data suggest mysterious yen spike wasn't intervention
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Passersby walk past an electric monitor displaying the Japanese yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan October 4, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato Acquire Licensing RightsTOKYO, Oct 5 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan's money market data indicated on Thursday that a mysterious spike in the yen rate against the dollar on Tuesday was likely not the product of official Japanese intervention. The central bank's projection for Friday's money market conditions indicated a 1.09 trillion yen ($7.32 billion) net receipt of funds, not far from the 800-900 billion net receipt of funds estimated by brokerages, excluding intervention. Bank transactions for currency intervention take effect two business days later, but the hour of the yen's rebound made it unclear whether it would show up in data for Thursday or Friday. ($1 = 149.0000 yen)Reporting by Kevin Buckland; editing by Christina FincherOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Issei Kato, Norihiro Yamaguchi, It's, Kevin Buckland, Christina Fincher Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Rights, Bank, brokerages, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, New York

The collective impact of higher rates across the economy could also weaken the government's own finances. With borrowing rates high and inflation still relatively elevated, consumers, who drive about 70% of economic growth, are expected to spend more cautiously. “Those tighter, higher rates will have an impact on the economy.”Financial analysts point to several reasons for the rapid increase in lending rates. Overseas buyers have reduced their purchases, thereby forcing rates higher to attract buyers. “All of that is driving these fears of higher rates, and no one knows when it’s going to stop,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities.

Persons: Kevin McCarthy, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Freddie Mac, Loretta Mester, ” Mester, it’s, ”, Gennadiy Goldberg, Benson Durham, Piper Sandler, Durham, Jerome Powell, ‘, we’re, ’ ”, Nancy Vanden Houten, David Page Organizations: WASHINGTON, United Auto Workers, Representatives, Republican, Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, ”, Fed, Treasury Department, TD Securities, Oxford Economics, AXA Locations: U.S, ’ ” Durham, London

☆ Germany risks letting a good crisis go to waste
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Pierre Briancon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Germany, the European Union’s largest economy and its traditional growth engine, is headed towards a contraction this year. Exports account for more than half of Germany’s GDP, compared to just a third in France and 37% in Italy, according to the World Bank. Germany’s growth potential is estimated at an annual 0.7% over the medium term by the Scope rating agency, about half the euro zone average. Exempting net public investment from the debt brake rule would help to reverse years of underspending. Unless they do, Europe’s leading economy risks letting a good crisis go to waste.

Persons: –, Hubertus Bardt, Germany’s, Carsten Brzeski, Oliver Rakau, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner’s, Sebastian Dullien, Scholz, Destatis, Francesco Guerrera, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, World Bank, EU, International Monetary Fund, Reuters Graphics Reuters, German Economic Institute, ING, Oxford Economics, BASF, Finance, Christian Democrats, Thomson Locations: Germany, Berlin, France, Italy, China –, Spain, Weimar Republic, China, Ukraine

☆ Is the party over? New data suggests revenge travel may be ending soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Monica Pitrelli | Morgan Awyong | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

New reports show that, after years of inflation and rising travel costs, travelers may finally be curtailing their travel plans. Interest to travel also fell in Canada and Russia (-4 percentage points each), the survey showed. Source: Morning ConsultAs to whether this suggests pent-up demand is ending: "Yes, our data suggests that is so," said Lindsey Roeschke, travel and hospitality analyst at Morning Consult. "We are sticking with our call that the U.S. will enter recession around the turn of the year," the report states. Intentions to visit North America fell 23 percentage points from 2022 — far eclipsing a drop in interest from South Korea (12 percentage points) and Japan (9 percentage points).

Persons: Lindsey Roeschke Organizations: Travel, Morning, Oxford Economics, Oxford, U.S Locations: Europe, France, Germany, Canada, Russia, North American, Asia, Pacific, Malaysia, United States, U.S, China, Hong Kong, Macao, North America, South Korea, Japan

☆ An end to the revenge? Signs show 'revenge travel' starting to decline
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Monica Pitrelli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAn end to the revenge? Signs show 'revenge travel' starting to declineNew reports from Morning Consult and Oxford Economics show enthusiasm to travel is starting to fall in parts of Europe and Asia.

Organizations: Oxford Economics Locations: Europe, Asia

☆ India's population has surpassed China's, but its labor force is still lagging by a large margin
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Charmaine Jacob | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

India may be the most populous country in the world, but its labor force continues to lag behind China's, according to Oxford Economics. Even though India has the world's largest population, its labor force participation is only at 51%, trailing China by 25 percentage points. "Although the rate will increase over time, our current projections suggest India's labor force will remain smaller than China's until the late 2040s," Oxford said in a report last week. Although a larger proportion of India's population is of working age, those between the ages of 15 and 64 only make up 51% of the country's labor force, compared to 76% in China. China's population would have dipped to 1.1 billion by then, the report said.

Persons: Oxford Organizations: Haier Appliances India, Oxford Economics Locations: Greater Noida, India, China

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Long-term prospects are uncertain
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

People walk outside of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in the financial district in Manhattan on June 14, 2022 in New York City. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Big population but small labor forceEven though India's population of 1.428 billion has surpassed that of China's, according to UN estimates, the country's labor force is only at 51%, trailing behind China's 75%. When that happens, this simple bond trade can earn you 40% in returns, said investment analysts.

Persons: Hong, Bill Ackman, Rick Rieder, Katie Koch Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Nikkei, Alpha, Pershing, Capital Management, Treasury, BlackRock, Federal, TCW, China's, Oxford Economics Locations: Manhattan, New York City, Asia, Pacific, Tokyo, U.S, China

As the 10-year Treasury yields regained steam, megacap growth stocks including Apple (AAPL.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), Amazon.com (AMZN.O) and Alphabet (GOOGL.O) shed between 0.4% and 2.2%. Technology (.SPLRCT) led declines amongst major S&P 500 sectors, down 0.7%, while healthcare (.SPXHC) added 0.5%. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are on course for their worst monthly performance of the year as Treasury yields hit multi-year highs on uncertainty around interest rates. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.34-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.26-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded two new 52-week highs and eight new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 15 new highs and 88 new lows.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, megacaps, Jerome Powell's, Michael Pearce, Pearce, Powell, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee, Ankika Biswas, Shashwat Chauhan, Sriraj Kalluvila, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Apple, Microsoft, Technology, Dow Jones, Oxford Economics, Chicago Fed, Traders, Micron Technology, Accenture, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ India to hold top spot for economic growth but risks to downside remain: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

After a stellar 7.8% expansion last quarter, economic growth was expected to moderate to 6.4% this quarter and then drop to 6.0% in the October-December period before slowing to 5.5% in early 2024. "A lot of the drivers that drove the really strong growth from the middle of 2021 to last year have been exhausted. A weak external backdrop is weighing on Indian economic growth as well as sluggish private consumption and sluggish investment." A majority of economists, 22 of 36, who answered an additional question said the risks to their FY 2023/2024 GDP growth forecasts were skewed to the downside. Government measures should cool food prices in the coming months, but rising oil prices will likely place upward pressure on headline inflation."

Persons: Narendra Modi's, we're, Miguel Chanco, Alexandra Hermann, Milounee Purohit, Sujith Pai, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Jonathan Cable, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Pantheon, Reserve Bank of India, That's, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, India, Asia

☆ US consumer confidence is the lowest it’s been in four months
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Minneapolis CNN —Rising gas prices and high interest rates contributed to greater economic uncertainty and dampened consumer confidence in September, dropping the key economic indicator to the lowest level in four months, according to data released Tuesday. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell for a second consecutive month, dropping to 103 in September from an upwardly revised 108.7 the month before. The index is at its second-lowest level this year, landing just above May’s 102.5 reading, according to Conference Board data. “Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates. “Consumers may be hearing more bad news about corporate earnings, while job openings are narrowing, and interest rates continue to rise — making big-ticket items more expensive,” she said.

Persons: “ Consumers, ”, Dana Peterson, Consumers, Peterson, Matthew Martin Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Board, “, Conference Board, Consumers, Oxford Economics Locations: Minneapolis, US

☆ China's economy could end up in 'Japanese style' stagnation, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's economy could end up in 'Japanese style' stagnation, economist saysShigeto Nagai, head of Japan at Oxford Economics, says that could happen if the current conditions in the property market continue.

Persons: Shigeto Nagai Organizations: Oxford Economics Locations: Japan

☆ US housing starts hit three-year low; surge in permits point to underlying strength
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The decline in housing starts reported by the Commerce Department on Tuesday was the largest in a year and occurred across the board. Housing starts tumbled 11.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.283 million units last month, the lowest level since June 2020. Data for July was revised lower to show starts accelerating to a rate of 1.447 million units instead of the previously reported 1.452 million units. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, dropped 4.3% to a rate of 941,000 units last month. They were boosted by a 14.8% surge in multi-family housing permits to a rate of 535,000 units.

Persons: Mike Blake, homebuilding, Daniel Vielhaber, Hilary, Freddie Mac, Goldman Sachs, Nancy Vanden Houten, Jeffrey Roach, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce Department, Federal, Nationwide, Reuters, U.S, Treasury, National Association of Home Builders, Oxford Economics, Realtors, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: Rancho, San Diego , California, U.S, WASHINGTON, Columbus , Ohio, homebuilding, Northeast, Midwest, Wells Fargo, New York, Charlotte , North Carolina

Student loan repayments restart in October after a three-year suspension during the COVID-19 pandemic. In isolation, none would likely shift policymakers' sense of the short-term risks or change their focus on quelling still-elevated inflation. By Goldman's estimate the economy would still be growing at a 1.3% annual rate at that point. But the amounts they see sliced from GDP are more than the 1% growth rate Fed officials expected the economy to muster as of June, and beyond many private forecasts as well. Some economists say the resumption of student loan repayments for tens of millions of borrowers may already be reshaping behavior.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Vincent Reinhart, Reinhart, Michael Pearce, Ian Shepherdson, Kieran Clancy, They've, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: . Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, Federal, Republicans, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Mellon, Reuters, Oxford Economics, Congressional, U.S . Department, Education, Thomson

☆ Auto strike could be speed bump for hard-driving US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Dan Burns | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"While that amount is large in nominal dollar terms, it would not be large enough to tip the economy into recession. In the end, the impact of a such a strike would be modest compared to previous generations," Brusuelas said. Other economists offered comparable estimates of the potential drag from a prolonged strike by the Big Three's full union membership. A full-blown strike "could push U.S. payroll growth temporarily negative," Michael Pearce, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote on Wednesday. Pearce also estimated a full strike lasting a month could cut U.S. auto output by nearly a third, much as it did during the 1998 strike.

Persons: Rebecca Cook, Detroit's, Joe Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Michael Pearce, Pearce, Dan Burns, Deepa Babington Organizations: UAW, General Motors Detroit, Hamtramck, REUTERS, General Motors, Ford, United Auto Workers, RSM, Big, Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, Labor, payrolls, Thomson Locations: Hamtramck , Michigan, U.S

☆ Wall St Week Ahead: Last Fed hike tends to aid stocks, but some have doubts this time
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The market will probably cheer it a bit if it is the end of the Fed rate hike cycle," said Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company. Traders see a roughly two-out-of three chance of the Fed leaving rates unchanged in November, CME's data showed. Odds for December show about a 60% chance rates of rates staying at current levels. Analysts at Oxford Economics forecast further downside for global earnings, noting that stocks "have typically delivered far weaker returns following the final Fed rate hike when it has coincided with an EPS downturn." "But I'm not sure how sustainable it would be given where stocks are valued relative to bonds already."

Persons: Brendan McDermid, CFRA, Brent Schutte, Schutte, Jerome Powell, Sam Stovall, LSEG Datastream, Jack Ablin, I'm, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, Fed, Oxford Economics, Equity, Treasury, Cresset, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Oxford

Biden said that when negotiations began, he encouraged leaders of the two sides to stay at the bargaining table as long as possible. The head of the UAW said the union's negotiators “are hard at work at the bargaining table.”The UAW strike is just one of many labor disruptions. Still, a wider strike by the UAW could cause parts of the U.S. economy to shudder. The chain reaction across parts suppliers to the stores and restaurants that auto workers patronize could hurt local economies in Michigan, Wisconsin and other states that could be pivotal in next year’s election. Former President Donald Trump, the early Republican front-runner, said that union workers jobs are at risk because of Biden’s push to use of government incentives to build more EVs.

Persons: Joe Biden, autoworkers, ”, ” Biden, Stellantis, Biden, Julie Su, Gene Sperling, Shawn Fain, “, ’, Suzanne Clark, Joshua Bolten, ” Fain, Joe Brusuelas, Donald Trump, Trump, Jill Colvin Organizations: WASHINGTON, Big, White, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Ford, UAW, GM, Fiat Chrysler, Workers, Labor Department, Democratic, Business, U.S . Chamber of Commerce, RSM, Oxford Economics, Republican, NBC News Locations: Detroit, California , Oregon, Washington, U.S, Michigan , Wisconsin, China, United States, America

☆ UAW strike could brake hard-driving US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Dan Burns | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"UAW on strike" signs lean against a pile of wood on the picket line outside the General Motors Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly in Hamtramck, Michigan, U.S. October 25, 2019. RSM estimates the U.S. economy would suffer a modest 0.2% drag to annualized growth of gross domestic product this quarter should the strike action last for a month, Brusuelas said. Other economists offered comparable estimates of the potential drag from a prolonged strike by the Big Three's full union membership. A full-blown strike "could push U.S. payroll growth temporarily negative," Michael Pearce, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote on Wednesday. Pearce also estimated a full strike lasting a month could cut U.S. auto output by nearly a third, much as it did during the 1998 strike.

Persons: Rebecca Cook, Detroit's, Joe Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Michael Pearce, Pearce, Dan Burns, Deepa Babington, Diane Craft Organizations: UAW, General Motors Detroit, Hamtramck, REUTERS, General Motors, Ford, United Auto Workers, RSM, Big, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, Labor, payrolls, Thomson Locations: Hamtramck , Michigan, U.S

☆ Higher gasoline prices lift US retail sales, trend slowing
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Retail sales rose 0.6% last month. Higher gasoline prices boosted producer prices in August, other data from the Labor Department showed on Thursday. Excluding gasoline stations, retail sales rose 0.2% last month. Sales at food services and drinking places, the only services category in the retail sales report, rose 0.3% after increasing 0.8% in July. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales edged up 0.1% in August.

Persons: Mike Blake, Christopher Rupkey, Goldman Sachs, Nancy Vanden Houten, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Reuters, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Labor Department, Treasury, delinquencies, New York Federal Reserve, Gross, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: Carlsbad , California, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York

Retail sales rose 0.6% in August, compared with a revised 0.5% increase in July, according to a report issued by the Commerce Department on Thursday. The surge in gas prices is coursing through the economy and could slow down shoppers' momentum heading into the critical holiday shopping season. Excluding gas sales, retail sales were just up 0.2% for August, according to the Commerce Department report. Sales at gas stations rose a robust 5.2%, while furniture and home furnishings stores saw a 1% drop in sales. August's uptick in retail sales, which marks the fifth straight monthly gain, reflects the economy’s resiliency despite a still tough economic environment.

Persons: August's, ”, Michael Pearce, “, Anne Hatfield, They’re, Kendra Scott, Chris Rugaber, Anne Organizations: Commerce Department, U.S . Labor Department, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, AAA, Amazon Prime, U.S, Oxford Economics, ”, Walmart, Pride, AP Locations: Washington

☆ China’s growth is buried under great wall of debt
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Yawen Chen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Most of these 3,000-plus entities were created by local governments during the 2008 crisis to skirt a central government ban on direct state borrowing. These vehicles had already accumulated 80 trillion yuan of liabilities at the end of 2022, according to analysts at Guosheng Securities. At a more optimistic 30% discount, the proceeds would jump to 55 trillion yuan, which would cover all outstanding interest-bearing debt. S&P analysts calculate that about 20 trillion yuan of LGFVs’ loans may be at risk of restructuring. If Xi won't boost property wholeheartedly and is not able to count on consumers, his efforts to revive China’s growth have to focus on smashing the great wall of local debt.

Persons: Wen Jiabao, Xi Jinping, Wen, Xi, Peter Thal Larsen, Sharon Lam, Aditya Sriwatsav Organizations: Reuters, HK, Guosheng Securities, Citi, Finance, Reuters Graphics, Financial Times, Investment, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Shanghai, New York, China's Southwestern Guizhou, United States

"Weakness in domestic demand, in particular consumption, shows that high and still increasing consumer prices for most goods and services are taking a heavier toll than expected," a commission statement said. The commission cut its forecast for Europe's largest economy this year to minus 0.4%. The economic rebound from the pandemic sent consumer prices higher as demand for goods created bottlenecks in supplies of raw materials and parts, which have now mostly eased. Higher prices spread to food and then services, a broad category ranging from haircuts and hotel stays to medical treaments and car repairs. Prospects of weakening economic growth have led some economists to predict the European Central Bank may avoid raising interest rates Thursday following nine straight hikes.

Persons: Paolo Gentiloni, ”, Alexander Valentin, Gentiloni, Christine Lagarde Organizations: European Union, European Commission, European Central Bank, EU, ECB, Oxford, International Monetary Fund, U.S . Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, —, China, Ukraine, Russia, Europe, U.S

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