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☆ Fed's Williams says inflation still too high, eyeing financial conditions
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Williams said price pressures remain "too high," and added that the Fed remains committed to bringing inflation back to the central bank's 2% target. The central bank also signaled that after just over a year of aggressive rate hikes, it may be done, or close to it, with the rate rises. Williams also serves as vice chair of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, which has been working aggressively to lower high levels of inflation. The Fed is eyeing an end to the rate-hike cycle as inflation pressures have eased a bit. He noted there have been signs of slowing price pressures but noted that core services inflation stripped of housing factors remains persistent.

☆ Oil prices ease in cautious trade ahead of US inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Emily Chow | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TOKYO, May 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Tuesday, relinquishing some of the strong gains of the previous two sessions with the market cautious ahead of U.S. inflation figures for April, which will be key to the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision. "Oil prices have rebounded somewhat in the last two sessions, so now is time for a pause ... with no real positive data coming out," said Suvro Sarkar, lead energy analyst at DBS Bank. "The market is cautious today ahead of the inflation data.... With net long positions declining sharply over the last two weeks, a lot of traders are already out of the market, so volumes are low." "If tomorrow's CPI data remains at around 5% by market consensus, and if the core CPI does not drop significantly, it will likely continue to support the rise in oil prices," said CMC Markets analyst Leon Li. While oil markets fell sharply last week, prices rose on Friday and Monday as fears of recession eased in the U.S., the world's biggest oil consumer, and some traders saw crude's three-week slide on demand worries as overdone.

TOKYO, May 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Tuesday, relinquishing some of the strong gains in the previous two sessions while the market remained cautious ahead of U.S. inflation figures for April, which will be key to the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision. "Oil prices have rebounded somewhat in the last two sessions, so now is time for a pause ... with no real positive data coming out," said Suvro Sarkar, lead energy analyst at DBS Bank. "The market is cautious today ahead of the inflation data.... With net long positions declining sharply over the last two weeks, a lot of traders are already out of the market, so volumes are low." While oil markets fell sharply last week, prices rose on Friday and Monday as fears of recession eased in the U.S., the world's biggest oil consumer, and some traders saw crude's three-week slide on demand worries as overdone. "Oil prices won't be able to rise that much from here given all the growth demand fears, but expectations are high for OPEC+ to try to keep prices above the $70 a barrel level," Moya's note said.

Spot gold was little changed at $2,023.41 per ounce, as of 0232 GMT. If the inflation report comes hot and fans worries of another Fed rate hike in June, gold prices could eventually drop to $1,950-$1,920 level, said Ajay Kedia, director at Kedia Commodities in Mumbai. Bullion is considered an inflation hedge, but higher rates dent the non-yielding asset's appeal. Besides economic data, market participants are also monitoring developments surrounding the U.S. banking sector and debt ceiling. "If there is news of further stress in the banking sector, we will see gold move towards the $2,100 level," Kedia added.

☆ Fed's John Williams says rates could be increased if inflation doesn't come down
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

John Williams, Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, speaks at an event in New York, November 6, 2019. The committee removed a key phrase from the statement that had indicated additional rate hikes would be appropriate. "I do not see in my baseline forecast, any reason to cut interest rates this year," he said, adding that additional rate hikes would be possible if the data doesn't cooperate. The current problems in the banking industry and their impact will factor into Williams' policy outlook, he said. "I will be particularly focused on assessing the evolution of credit conditions and their effects on the outlook for growth, employment and inflation," Williams said.

☆ Gold holds ground as investors brace for U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A five hundred gram gold bar, left, and a a one kilogram gold bar, produced by Swiss manufacturer Argor Hebaeus SA, in Budapest, Hungary. Gold prices flitted in a narrow range on Tuesday ahead of U.S. inflation data, which investors will scrutinize for clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. If the inflation report comes hot and fans worries of another Fed rate hike in June, gold prices could eventually drop to $1,950-$1,920 level, said Ajay Kedia, director at Kedia Commodities in Mumbai. Besides economic data, market participants are also monitoring developments surrounding the U.S. banking sector and debt ceiling. "If there is news of further stress in the banking sector, we will see gold move towards the $2,100 level," Kedia added.

☆ US consumers' inflation expectations mixed in April, NY Fed report shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FILE PHOTO: People walk outside the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York City, U.S., March 18, 2020. The regional Fed bank reported as part of its April Survey of Consumer Expectations that respondents see inflation one year from now at 4.4%, down from 4.7% in the March survey. The Fed has been pressing forward aggressively with interest rate rises to lower some of the highest inflation pressures in decades. The U.S. central bank raised rates last week in an action that may be the last of its current tightening campaign, as inflation pressures have started to ease. Survey respondents also said they expect higher unemployment and a greater probability of losing their jobs, as well as a harder time finding new work.

☆ Outlook for household spending slumped in April, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

That came with a corresponding decline of 0.3 percentage point in the overall outlook for inflation over the next year. All of those levels are still above the Fed's 2% inflation target, though they are drifting closer to the goal. Food prices are projected to rise by 5.8%, a 0.1 percentage point decline from the previous month. The likelihood that the unemployment rate will be higher a year from now increased to 41.8%, a 1.1 percentage point increase. Elsewhere in the survey, the one-year outlook for home price appreciation rose to 2.5%, the highest since July 2022 and a 0.7 percentage point increase from March.

NEW YORK, May 4 (Reuters) - The practice of short selling is coming under increased scrutiny as shares of regional banks remain under pressure, with some calls for more regulatory oversight of the practice. Short sellers, who borrow shares they expect to fall and hope to repay the loan for less later to pocket the difference, have profited from the banking crisis. During the financial crisis, short selling was temporarily banned in the U.S., although a New York Federal Reserve review later showed the curb did not achieve the intended effect. The SEC declined to comment on Thursday when asked if it should impose a short selling ban. While some market participants criticized the practice, others, like non-profit group Better Markets, said short sellers warned markets about the challenges regional banks were facing.

☆ Why First Republic failed, and what it means for the rest of the banking industry
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Ryan Hogg | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

First Republic's failure is a stark reminder that the banking crisis is far from over. But despite a speedy takeover by JPMorgan, First Republic's failure shows the banking crisis is far from over. At the end of 2022, two-thirds of First Republic's deposits were uninsured. When SVB and Signature Bank failed, these wealthy customers fled First Republic in droves for fear of losing their cash. The combined failure of SVB, Signature and First Republic is a reminder of the problems affecting the banking system.

☆ Morning Bid: Global pulse picks up, rates creep higher again
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWith investors largely assuming recession ahead, an accelerating global economic pulse challenges the narrative and is seeing interest rates tick back higher again as the March banking wobble subsides. With March starts and permits numbers out later, there was also signs of a troughing in the U.S. housing market. Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders improved for a fourth straight month in April as a dearth of previously owned homes and falling mortgage rates boosted demand. Wall St futures were higher again on Tuesday, with European bourses and most Asia indices advancing too. With euro zone and UK rate expectations pushing higher too, the dollar slipped back again against the euro and sterling .

☆ US homebuilder sentiment improves further; NY state manufacturing rebounds
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Other data on Monday showed manufacturing activity in New York state increased for the first time in five months. Housing and manufacturing have been hammered by the Federal Reserve's fastest interest rate hiking campaign since the 1980s. The survey's measure of current sales conditions rose two points to 51. The survey's measure of future business conditions rose to 6.6 from 2.9 in March. The capital spending index rose 3.2 points to 16.5, while the technology spending measure fell to 10.3 from 13.3 in March.

☆ There's no clear sign of a US credit crunch yet, a top Fed official says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

There's no clear signs of a US credit crunch yet, according to Fed official John Williams. We haven't seen any clear signs yet of credit conditions tightening and we don't know how big those effects will be," he said. The collapse of SVB and Signature Bank has stoked fears that lending standards to obtain a loan will become harder. We haven't seen any clear signs yet of credit conditions tightening and we don't know how big those effects will be," he added at a New York University event Monday. Other commentators have blamed the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes as a key factor in the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank.

☆ NY Fed raises one-year inflation expectations to 4.7%
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNY Fed raises one-year inflation expectations to 4.7%CNBC's Steve Liesman reports on the latest inflation target from the New York Federal Reserve.

☆ Americans are already feeling the effects of a credit crunch
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A Monday New York Fed survey found that Americans' feel like their access to credit is deteriorating. Fed Chair Jerome Powell previously said the banking stress that started with Silicon Valley Bank could trigger a credit crunch. New York Fed Survey of Consumer ExpectationsAdditionally, the survey found that the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months climbed 0.3% to 10.9%. "The credit crunch has started," Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said in response to the report. Tighter credit conditions means lenders raise the bar for borrowers, and households have to meet stricter parameters to obtain a loan.

☆ Outlook for credit access hits record low while inflation expectations jump, NY Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Wholesale egg prices have begun declining more than 50% since December record highs according to Urner Barry data. Consumers are getting more pessimistic about inflation and their access to credit, according to a survey the New York Federal Reserve released Monday. That's the first time the near-term outlook increased since October and runs counter to the narrative from Fed officials that they expect inflation to subside as a series of interest rate increases take hold. In their most recent economic projections, policymakers said they anticipate inflation including food and energy prices to decline to 2.5% in 2024. The current one-year outlook is down from 6.6% from the same time in 2022, but is running well ahead of the Fed's 2% inflation goal.

☆ 'The credit crunch has started': Here's what tighter lending standards mean for American consumers and businesses as banks navigate the SVB wreckage
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-08 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

"Each bank is going to apply those credit standards differently," a source told Insider. Requiring higher minimum credit scores and minimum repayments and curbing credit limits were among tweaks banks were making. Lending to consumers dropped and credit standards and terms "continued to tighten sharply," with marked rises in loan pricing. A "dramatic worsening of firm and consumer access to bank credit," is how a 2014 paper on the Federal Reserve's website describes a credit crunch. Tighter lending standards may have a big impact on floating-rate loans versus fixed loans, CFRA equity analyst Alexander Yokum told Insider.

☆ The housing market is a total paradox now, and these recent mixed signals are adding to the confusion
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Housing indicators have sent mixed signals, muddying the picture on where the market is headed. Regional differences have also been playing a considerable role in the data. Meanwhile, Adams added that national averages can obscure stark regional differences, which have varied significantly, potentially causing diverging viewpoints. Here are some recent mixed signals:The US housing market is crashing and soaring at the same timeThe regional divide in the housing market is exemplified in this east-west split. "Existing-home sales, pending contracts and new-home construction pending contracts have turned the corner and climbed for the past three months."

SummarySummary Companies February PCE growth slowsVirgin Orbit announces layoff plans, shares tankFutures up: Dow 0.37%, S&P 0.28%, Nasdaq 0.14%March 31 (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes were set to open higher on Friday after data showed inflation slowed in February, supporting hopes of a softer monetary policy approach from the Federal Reserve. Traders' bets of a 25-basis-point rate hike in May stand at 55.5%, with odds of a pause at 44.5%, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool. "But in terms of the Fed's calculus, they'll have to have more confirmation that disinflation is really taking hold beyond just a few data points here and there." U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell to a session low of 3.534% after the data. The KBW Regional banking index (.KRX) and the S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK), which houses major banks, have lost 19% and 14%, respectively, so far during the quarter.

SummarySummary Companies February PCE data due at 8:30 am ETVirgin Orbit announces layoff plans, shares tankFutures mixed: Dow up 0.23%, S&P up 0.19%, Nasdaq flatMarch 31 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were mixed on Friday as investors awaited inflation data for cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path amid receding fears of a banking crisis. The Commerce Department is expected to release the February reading of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, at 8:30 am ET (12:30 GMT). The KBW Regional banking index (.KRX) and the S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK), which houses major banks, have lost 19% and 14%, respectively, so far during the quarter. ET, Dow e-minis were up 76 points, or 0.23%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 7.75 points, or 0.19%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 1.25 points, or 0.01%. Reporting by Amruta Khandekar and Ankika Biswas; Editing by Nivedita Bhattacharjee and Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Dogged inflation shades rebound
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But for most major stock and bond investments beyond the banking sector itself, the quarter remained a pretty upbeat one overall. "Inflation remains too high and recent indicators reinforce my view that there is more work to do," said Boston Fed chief Susan Collins. Futures markets are still broadly split on the chances of another Fed hike in May, but leaned a bit more on Friday to one more quarter point move. But core inflation, excluding energy and unprocessed food, ticked up as forecast to a new record high for the bloc at 7.5%. Germany said import price inflation fell to its lowest in two years at 2.8% in February.

☆ Futures muted as investors await key inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures: Dow flat, S&P up 0.04%, Nasdaq down 0.02%March 31 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were flat on Friday as investors steered clear of big bets ahead of crucial inflation data, amid receding fears of a banking crisis. The Commerce Department is expected to release February data on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index- the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, at 8:30 am ET (12:30 GMT). Consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan is also due later in the day. New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams and Fed Governor Lisa Cook are also scheduled to speak later on Friday. ET, Dow e-minis were flat, S&P 500 e-minis were up 1.75 points, or 0.04%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 2 points, or 0.02%.

☆ Factbox: The biggest financial crises of the last four decades
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Fears of banking contagion remain, and investors are worried that global economies will suffer if the effects of higher interest rates torpedo more lenders. Michael Milken had helped popularize the financial instrument, with many using it as a way of funding leveraged buyouts. The country ended up getting external financial support from the International Monetary Fund and a $50 billion bailout from the United States. GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 2008The biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression was rooted in risky loans to shaky borrowers, which started to lose value after central banks raised interest rates in the period leading up to the crisis. EUROPEAN DEBT CRISISSpurred by the 2008 financial crisis, surging debt at some of the major European economies led to a loss of confidence in the region's businesses.

☆ Real estate leader on NY Fed board warns on commercial real estate risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The real-estate sector has also been hard hit by Fed rate rises and commercial real estate has also been hobbled by the shift away from in-office work during the pandemic. Rechler serves as what’s called a Class B director on the 12-person panel of private citizens who oversee the New York Fed. Each of the quasi-private regional Fed banks are also operated under the oversight of the Fed’s Board of Governors in Washington, which is explicitly part of the government. The boards overseeing each of the regional Fed banks are made up of a mix of bankers, business and non-profit leaders. Their most visible role is helping regional Fed banks find new presidents, although bankers who serve as directors are by law not part of this process.

☆ New York Fed board member warns of commercial real-estate risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

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