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According to a report by the Commerce Department, consumer spending rose 0.8% in July beating expectations of 0.7%. At the three-year range, expectations rose 0.3 percentage point to 2.7%, while the five-year outlook jumped even more, up 0.4 percentage point to 2.9%. All three are well ahead of the Fed's 2% goal for 12-month inflation, indicating the central bank may need to keep policy tighter for longer. Economists and policymakers consider expectations as a key factor in viewing the path of inflation, so the Survey of Consumer Expectations for February could be bad news. "We remain committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent goal and to keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored."
Persons: Justin Sullivan, Jerome Powell Organizations: Costco, Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, New York Federal Reserve, Capitol Locations: Novato , California
Overall, consumer prices rose 0.3% in January 2024 from December 2023, according to the latest Consumer Price Index. The Labor Department releases its Consumer Price Index for February on Tuesday. The drivers of services inflation have been threefold: Vehicle insurance, hospital insurance, and financial services. The US Labor Department releases its Consumer Price Index for February. The US Commerce Department releases February figures on retail sales in addition to January data on business inventories.
Persons: don’t abate, Price, it’s, Bell, Saira Malik, They’ve, I’ve, Biden, Joe Biden, I’m, , Biden’s, Read, Guess Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Oracle, Asana, Vail Resorts, US Labor Department, US Treasury Department, National Statistics, Adobe, Dollar, Sporting Goods, Getty, US Commerce Department, The New York Fed, Manufacturing Index, University of Michigan Locations: Nuveen, Thursday’s State, America
New York CNN —Even as unemployment remains historically low and recession fears fade, consumer credit scores are starting to buckle. Although FICO scores remain near record highs — and well above pre-pandemic levels — this marks the first drop in a decade. FICO said the one-point drop in credit scores in late 2023 was driven by an increase in Americans missing payments and also by rising debt levels. However, he said this one-point drop in credit scores is not necessarily a red flag. “The overall outlook for consumer credit quality, and consumer spending growth,” Faucher said, “is still very solid.”
Persons: FICO, FICO’s, Arkali, , , ” Arkali, Banks, , Gus Faucher, Faucher, it’s “, ” Faucher Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, New York Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, ’ Consumers, NY Fed, PNC Locations: New York
watch nowThe consequences of missed credit card paymentsThe CFPB found that late fees are often layered on top of other punitive measures credit card companies impose on consumers who miss payments, including negative credit reporting, which can hurt their credit rating. "When consumers don't make required payments, they can face a long list of consequences. More consumers are falling behindCollectively, consumers are having a harder time managing debt amid high interest rates and higher prices. Not only are more cardholders carrying debt from month to month but more are also falling behind on payments, recent reports also show. Credit card delinquency rates surged in 2023, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found.
Persons: Rohit Chopra, Organizations: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Jose Uribe leaves the Federal Court, after a hearing on bribery charges, in New York City, U.S. September 27, 2023. A co-defendant in the criminal corruption case against Sen. Bob Menendez pleaded guilty in New York federal court on Friday and agreed to cooperate with the prosecution of the New Jersey Democrat. Menendez's co-defendant Joe Uribe pleaded guilty to seven counts, including conspiracy to commit bribery, honest services fraud, and obstruction of justice. The other defendants in the case — Menendez, the senator's wife Nadine, and two other New Jersey businessmen — are scheduled to stand trial beginning May 6 in Manhattan federal court. The Clifton, New Jersey, resident and other two businessmen men were accused of having a "corrupt relationship" with Menendez and Nadine Menendez.
Persons: Jose Uribe, Sen, Bob Menendez, Menendez's, Joe Uribe, — Menendez, Nadine, , Uribe, Menendez, Nadine Menendez, Wael Hana Organizations: New, New Jersey Democrat, Mercedes, Benz, Agriculture Department, Senate Foreign Locations: New York City, U.S, New York, New Jersey, Jersey, Manhattan, Clifton , New Jersey, Egypt
ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was up by over one basis point to 4.2915%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was more than one basis point higher to 4.6643%. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher on Thursday as investors awaited the release of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. Investors looked ahead to the release of the personal consumption expenditures report for January, which could provide clues about the outlook for interest rates. If January's reading comes in higher than expected, markets may take it as a signal that inflation is stickier than previously expected and interest rates could stay elevated for longer.
Persons: Dow Jones, John Williams Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, PCE, New York Federal
Stock futures fell as Wall Street weighed the latest earnings results and looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 80 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures edged down 0.2% and 0.25%, respectively. The 30-stock Dow lost 0.06% and fell for a third consecutive session, while the S&P 500 inched down 0.17%. The S&P 500 has jumped 4.6%, while the Dow has added 2.1%.
Persons: Salesforce, Okta, Joe Mazzola, Charles Schwab's, Dow, John Williams Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Federal, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Hewlett Packard Enterprises, Bath, Body, New York Federal Reserve Bank Locations: Snowflake, Chicago
But that’s not an accident,” Max Levchin, Affirm’s CEO and a co-founder of PayPal, told CNN in a recent interview. Levchin credits a willingness to say a two-letter word, one that’s not exactly associated with the surging BNPL industry, N-O. It’s that we are honest when we tell them, ‘Hey, we don’t think you should borrow right now.’”Affirm started saying “no” more often in the spring of 2022. That’s when Levchin started observing signs of “financial stress” as inflation surged and gas prices approached record highs. “Say you’re asking to borrow to buy an $800 TV and we really don’t think it’s healthy for you, financially…We can say, ‘That’s too much now.
Persons: “ We’re, that’s, ” Max Levchin, Levchin, “ It’s, ’ ”, , , Max Levchin, Gross, we’ll, ” Levchin, it’s, BNPL, There’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, PayPal, CNN, New York Fed, Target, Walmart, Royal, American Airlines, NY Fed, Federal Reserve, Biden, Trump Locations: New York, Helsinki, Finland, Royal Caribbean, Covid
Khorram allegedly ordered prostitutes and illicit drugs for Combs and his guests and according to the lawsuit, Jones believed Khorram “aided and abetted” Combs’ sexual assault. “Our attempts to share this proof with Mr. Jones’ attorney, Tyrone Blackburn, have been ignored, as Mr. Blackburn refuses to return our calls. “This was done to ease Mr. Jones’ anxiety concerning homosexuality,” the suit alleges. In a statement to CNN, he called Jones’ allegations “false.”“My lawyer will be handling this going forward,” Stevie J added. Combs was present while Mr. Jones was being assaulted by Cuba Gooding Jr.,” the suit alleges.
Persons: CNN —, Sean “ Diddy ” Combs, ” Rodney “, Rod ” Jones, videographer, Combs, Jones, Combs ’, Kristina Khorram, Sir Lucian Grainge, Justin, Justin Combs, Khorram, Khorram “, abetted ” Combs, , DeLeon Tequila, Grainge, Habtemarian “, ” Jones, Shawn Holley, Sean Combs, , ” Holley, Tyrone Blackburn, Blackburn, “ Justin Combs, Sean, Diddy, Chris Pizzello, Steven ‘ Stevie J ’ Jordan, Stevie J, , Oscar, Cuba Gooding, Jr, Mr, “ Mr, ” Gooding, Casandra Ventura, ” Ben Brafman, Ventura, ” Weeks, ” Combs, Rodney Jones, Lucian Grainge, Grainge “ Organizations: CNN, Universal Music Group, Motown, Ethiopia, Khorram, Billboard, Islands, Motown Records, Cuba Locations: New York, Los Angeles
Washington, DC CNN —Americans racked up a record amount of credit card debt in 2023, soaring past a trillion dollars. “Consumers still have a lot of money left over to be able to spend, so the credit card data is often misinterpreted,” Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise Financial, told CNN. According to a LendingTree analysis of more than 350,000 credit reports, the average unpaid credit card balance was $6,864 in the fourth quarter. Overall, US household debt (including credit card balances) rose to a new high of $17.5 trillion in the fourth quarter, up 1.2% from the prior three-month period. So, while there certainly isn’t a shortage of economic hurdles bedeviling people’s budget — and credit card debt has surged — the big picture indicates that, so far, Americans (and their economy) remain healthy.
Persons: ” Russell Price, Price, haven’t, market’s, ” Gregory Daco, ” Lara Rhame, Laura, Jensen Huang, Christine Lagarde, Virgin, Michael Barr, Raphael Bostic, Susan Collins, John Williams, Papa, Austan Goolsbee, Loretta Mester, fuboTV, Christopher Waller, Mary Daly, Adriana Kugler Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Workers, New York Fed, Consumers, Ameriprise, CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, . New York Fed, Employers, Soaring, FS Investments, Nvidia, Huawei, AMD, Microsoft, Broadcom, US Commerce Department, Central Bank, eBay, Smucker, Urban Outfitters, Global, Board, TJX, Monster Beverage, Baidu, HP, Paramount Global, Anheuser, Busch Inbev, Dell Technologies, Papa John’s, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, P, China’s National Bureau, Statistics, Pearson, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, ., EY, Santa Clara, Singapore, Shenzhen, China, Beijing, CAVA
In the final week of February, Wall Street will strive to maintain its AI-fueled rally even as economic concerns linger and the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation measure is on deck. But many worry the writing is on the wall for these market leaders as economic and inflation risks linger. The 'lone cloud' of inflation The Fed's preferred inflation gauge will also be released in the week ahead. Investors are concerned that sticky inflation will mean that the Fed will hold onto its higher-for-longer interest rate policy. Next week will also be the final week of February, with stocks headed for another strong month of gains.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Patrick McDonough, Europe's, PGIM's McDonough, McDonough, Charlie Ashley, Dhaval Joshi, Joshi, Ashley, John Williams, TJX Cos Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Japan's Nikkei, Catalyst Funds, BCA Research, CPI, PPI, Dow, New, Dallas Fed, Fidelity National Information Services, Richmond Fed, eBay, Enterprise, Cruise Line Holdings, New York Federal Reserve Bank, York, Monster Beverage, Paramount Global, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Autodesk, Body, Hormel, PMI, Manufacturing Locations: U.S, Lowe's, Chicago, . Kansas, Michigan
While most of the market's attention has been on interest rates, the Federal Reserve is quietly getting ready to loosen policy in another respect as it prepares to slow down the shedding of assets on its balance sheet. Tapering down the roll-off could see the Fed reducing the caps in half, according to a projection from BNP Paribas. The QT program has resulted in a nearly $1.3 trillion reduction in total holdings, with the total balance sheet now standing at about $7.7 trillion. With confidence growing that inflation is easing, policymakers are looking to loosen up policy, albeit at a measured pace. So at this meeting, we did have some discussion of the balance sheet, and we're planning to begin in-depth discussions of balance sheet issues at our next meeting in March," Chair Jerome Powell said in his January post-meeting news conference .
Persons: Krishna Guha, Goldman Sachs, We're, Jerome Powell, we're Organizations: Federal Reserve, Evercore ISI, Fed, MBS, New York Fed, BNP Paribas, BNP
An under-the-radar recession indicator in the bond market is raising alarm that the economy could be heading for a hard landing, according to ING Economics. Strategists at the analytics firm pointed to a tight correlation between US Treasury yields and Bund yields in Europe, with both yields slipping in recent weeks as markets reprice their interest rate expectations over the short-run. That was the case in the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in early 2023, when a sell-off fueled by the collapse of SVB led Treasury yields and Bund yields to tumble in tandem. "The correlation between UST and Bund yields is significantly elevated, which usually points to a hard-landing narrative," strategists said in a note on Wednesday. New York Fed economists, meanwhile, are pricing in a 61% chance the economy could tip into recession by January of next year.
Persons: SVB Organizations: ING Economics, Treasury, Business, European Central Bank, ING, Bank, UST, Bund, ECB, New York Fed Locations: Europe, Silicon
Read previewSteep rate cuts from the Federal Reserve could be coming later this year thanks to weakening in the job market, which likely isn't as robust as some of the latest data has made it out to be, according to Wells Fargo strategist Erik Nelson. Advertisement"We need a catalyst, we need some data that shows these recent, strong data were just a blip. But much of that strength may be seasonal and no longer reflected in upcoming job reports, Nelson said. Other market commentators have warned that hiring activity could weaken in 2024 as tighter financial conditions take a toll on businesses. Though the jobless rate is low, continuing unemployment claims are hovering around 1.9 million, according to Fed data.
Persons: , Wells, Erik Nelson, Nelson, Paul Dietrich Organizations: Service, Federal, Bloomberg, Business, Fed, New York Fed, Yale School of Management
This confidence is echoed by other recent metrics, including a survey by Morgan Stanley showing that consumer sentiment hit a five-month high in January. Economists who spoke to CNBC Make It say it's likely the cumulative effect of wage growth, low unemployment and slowing inflation. "But with slowing inflation and strong wage growth, adjusted-for-inflation incomes are increasing, giving consumers more buying power," he says. Wages increased 5% in January 2024, a three-month moving average of nominal wage growth for individuals, as measured by the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker. Wage growth, slowing inflation and low unemployment are the main factors for improved optimism among Americans, Ernest says.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, what's, Robert Johnson, Here's, Gus Faucher, Johnson, Jonathan Ernest, Ernest Organizations: of Michigan, Consumers, New York Federal Reserve, CNBC, Creighton University's Heider College of Business, PNC Financial Services Group, U.S . Department of, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Stock, Case Western Reserve University Locations: New, Atlanta
Former President Donald Trump prepares to testify during his trial in New York State Supreme Court on November 06, 2023 in New York City. The ruling from Manhattan Supreme Court Judge Arthur Engoron is expected to be announced Friday afternoon. A judge could deliver a hammer blow to Donald Trump and his company when he issues a decision in the New York civil trial accusing the former president of years of business fraud. But Trump and the other defendants were found liable for fraud by Engoron before the trial even began. In a bombshell pre-trial ruling, Engoron granted summary judgment on James' main cause of action — that the defendants committed fraud in violation of New York law.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, E, Jean Carroll, Letitia James, Arthur Engoron, Joe Biden, vociferously, blaring, Engoron, James, Michael Cohen, Allison Greenfield Organizations: Court, Trump, New York, Manhattan, Republican, New, Trump Organization Locations: New York, New York City, New
Stocks and bonds both sold off as investors painfully recalibrated their expectations for five to six interest rate cuts this year to align more with the Fed’s projected three cuts. For example, Yardeni Research has pushed back against the idea that immediate rate cuts are necessary to avoid the Fed overshooting on slowing the economy. Stocks wouldn’t crater even if cuts were off the table completely in 2024, according to Bank of America, despite what Tuesday’s losses suggest. “No cuts could stymie a full-fledged recovery in more credit-sensitive areas,” wrote BofA strategists in a note on February 9. That means regional lenders will no longer have that crutch if they run into trouble after the program’s expiration on March 11.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Ed Yardeni, it’s, Marc Dizard, Allison Morrow, Bitcoin, bitcoin, Antoni Trenchev, ” Read, Alicia Wallace, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Wall, Federal Reserve, Traders, Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, US Treasury, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Yardeni Research, Bank of America, PNC Asset Management Group, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, Liberty Street Economics, , New York Fed Locations: New York, pare, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, , New
Younger generations grew their wealth much faster than older Americans after the pandemic began, thanks largely to stocks, according to a new study. The wealth increase far outpaced that of older generations. The biggest driver of the wealth gains for younger generations was stocks, according to the study. The study said that younger generations received larger stimulus checks during the pandemic and used the funds in part to buy stocks. As the stock market hovers near record highs, the wealth gap between the younger and older generations may continue to narrow.
Persons: Rob Gruijters Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, England's University of Cambridge
This photo illustration shows an image of former President Donald Trump next to a phone screen that is displaying the Truth Social app, in Washington, DC, on February 21, 2022. jumped 15% Thursday morning after the special purpose acquisition company announced Wednesday night that it is close to completing its proposed merger with Trump Media and Technology Group, former President Donald Trump's social media company. That SPAC first began merger talks with Trump's media group, which operates the Truth Social platform, in October 2021. Shvartsman last week was hit with a new money laundering count related to transfers he allegedly conducted after netting a profit of $18.2 million from selling DWAC stock. Shares of DWAC have rallied in recent months as Trump has emerged as the likely Republican nominee for president in November.
Persons: Donald Trump, Donald Trump's, DWAC, Eric Swider, Michael Shvartsman Organizations: Corp, Trump Media, Technology Group, The Securities, Exchange Commission, Department of Justice, SEC, Shvartsman, Trump, Republican Locations: Washington ,, Florida, New York
It turns out the Robinhood crowd was onto something when they piled into the stock market during the pandemic. As of 2019, people under 40 held 4.9% of total US wealth even though they’re 37% of the population. People over 54, who make up a similar share of the population, held 71.6% of total wealth. Nearing the end of 2023, under-40s controlled 6.7% of total wealth, while those over 54 had 72.8%. Now, the challenge is to try to keep at it, get some more luck in the stock market and, God willing, their own homes.
Persons: , Young, Millennials, Zers, they’re, , Nick Colas, , Colas, Ernst & Young, It’s, millennials, Emily Stewart Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, DataTrek, Ernst &, Bloomberg, Business Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, America
New York CNN —Americans who are already facing some financial difficulties are more intensive users of “Buy Now, Pay Later” offerings, with the majority of them tapping the short-term installment payment programs five or more times a year, according to new research released Wednesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Researchers found that almost 60% of financially fragile consumers have used Buy Now, Pay Later five or more times a year, with nearly 30% of them conducting 10 or more of the BNPL transactions annually. “More-fragile households tend to use the service to make frequent, relatively small, purchases that they might have trouble affording otherwise,” researchers wrote in the post. Buy Now, Pay Later offerings have exploded in use and availability in recent years, allowing people to make (often short-term) installment payments on furniture, travel, concert tickets, food delivery and even the grocery store. )”Some of the greatest downside risks for consumers are when they stack multiple BNPL loans and then pay for those programs with a credit card, economists and researchers have previously told CNN.
Persons: , Wells Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, Liberty Street Economics, , New York Fed, Federal Reserve, CNN Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, , New
Inflation comes in hotter than expected
  + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
The consumer price index increased 3.1% year over year in January, higher than the forecast of 2.9%. The CPI rose 0.3% month over month in January. January’s year-over-year rise in the CPI was expected to be 2.9%, which would have been a massive slowdown from December’s 3.4%. CPI increased by 0.3% month over month in January. Additionally, New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations data shows the one-year ahead median expected inflation rate had largely been cooling but stayed at 3.0% in January.
Persons: That's, , That’s, Mark Hamrick Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, University of Michigan, Consumers, , New York Fed Survey, Consumer Locations: January’s, ,
Gold flat ahead of US inflation data
  + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices were little changed on Tuesday, as investors held back from making big bets ahead of a U.S. inflation report that could give fresh perspective on the timing of the Federal Reserve's first rate cut. Spot gold was flat at $2,018.71 per ounce, as of 0424 GMT, after briefly slipping to a more than two-week low of $2,011.72/Oz on Monday. All eyes are on the January U.S. consumer price index inflation data due at 13:30 GMT. Americans reported a fairly stable outlook for inflation at the start of the year, a New York Fed survey showed. Spot platinum was flat at $888.89 per ounce, palladium rose 1.5% to $905.71, and silver edged 0.1% higher to $22.71.
Persons: Tim Waterer, Wang Tao Organizations: Federal, KCM Trade, New, Fed, Reuters, U.S ., Traders, U.S Locations: Moscow, Russia, U.S, ., China, Hong Kong
Oil prices edge up on Middle East risk
  + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday on fears Middle East tensions could disrupt supply, but uncertainty about the pace of potential U.S. interest rate cuts and the ensuing impact on fuel demand capped gains. Oil prices were near flat in Monday's trade, after gaining 6% last week. A move by the U.S. to tighten or step up enforcement of sanctions on Iran would impact oil market supplies. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is also scheduled to release its monthly oil market report on Tuesday. OPEC and its allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, will decide in March whether to extend voluntary oil production cuts in place for the first quarter.
Persons: Houthis Organizations: Brent, . West Texas, New York Fed, Consumer, Reuters, of, Petroleum, OPEC, ING Locations: Huntington, Pier, Huntington Beach, Iran, Red, United States, Britain, Israel, U.S, Iraq, Russia, OPEC, Saudi Arabia
Closing the wealth gap is more difficult because a significantly larger number of white households traditionally have money in stocks and mutual funds. A separate Fed survey shows that as of 2022, about 65.6% of white households had investments in stocks, compared with 28.3% for Hispanic households and 39.2% for Black households. More than 50% of Black financial wealth is invested in pensions, the New York Fed found. In contrast, less than 30% of white financial wealth is invested in pensions, with about 50% invested in businesses, equities, and mutual funds. In April of 2020, more than 40% of Black business owners reported they were not working, compared with only 17% of white business owners.
Persons: , Janelle Jones, Jones, Walley Adeyemo, Adeyemo, ___, Charles Schwab Organizations: New York Federal Reserve Bank, Black, Washington Center for Equitable, Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Associated Press, Charles, Charles Schwab Foundation, Inc, AP Locations: U.S, America
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