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Sales of new U.S. homes retreated in January after a flurry of purchases at the end of 2021, indicating a jump in mortgage rates may be starting to restrain demand. Builder sentiment in the single-family housing market posted an unexpected gain in January, rising for the first time in 12 straight months. Sentiment rose four points to 35 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Both builders and consumers are likely responding to the recent drop in mortgage rates. "In the coming quarters, single-family home building will rise off of cycle lows as mortgage rates are expected to trend lower and boost housing affordability."
Realtor.com has ranked the top places where homebuyers can still get a good deal in 2023. That wouldn't be surprising considering that US housing affordability fell to a 10-year low, the National Association of Home Builders announced in November. At a time where the typical home is priced near $400,000, a good indicator of a housing market's health is the balance between home sales and price growth. However, just because a city may be relatively affordable compared to others doesn't mean that it's the perfect fit for everyone. When buying a home it's also important to consider the cost of living, as well as access to jobs, schools, healthcare and food.
Remote work pushed housing trends into warp speedIn some ways, the pandemic's housing shifts were a long time coming. The shift to remote work also hastened many people's desire for more space. Across the country, remote workers chose to part ways with roommates or seek out larger homes. Elon Musk asserted his authority at Twitter by putting an end to remote work. On the other hand, as my colleague Aki Ito previously argued, a recession could further ingrain remote work as employers look to cut spending on real estate.
Elon Musk saw a massive chunk of his wealth disappear in 2022, while Sam Bankman-Fried faces federal fraud charges. But other sectors of the market suffered major setbacks amid a turbulent year, such as housing. Here are the five biggest market losers of 2022. But other sectors of the market suffered major setbacks amid a turbulent macro environment that included red-hot inflation, 425 basis points in Fed rate hikes, and Russia's war on Ukraine. Here's a list of the five biggest market losers in 2022.
New home sales rose in November, defying expectations
  + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
Meanwhile, the median price for a new home dropped to $471,200, down from $493,000 the previous month. But it was still higher than the median price a year ago, which was $430,000. “New home sales rose more than expected, but the big picture still is bleak for most Americans looking to buy,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. In early November, mortgage rates reached their high for the year – an average of 7.08% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan – and have been falling since. But for the first time since April, builders registered an increase in future sales expectations this month, according to the National Association of Home Builders.
U.S. new home sales increase again in November
  + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
New home sales increased 5.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said on Friday. October's sales pace was revised lower to 605,000 units from the previously reported 632,000. Sales surged in the Midwest and West, but fell in the Northeast and the densely populated South. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which account for a small share of U.S. home sales, slipping to a rate of 600,000 units in November. At November's sales pace it would take 8.6 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, down from 9.3 months in October.
Summary Housing starts fall 0.5% in NovemberSingle-family starts drop 4.1%; multi-family up 4.8%Building permits plunge 11.2%; single-family fall 7.1%WASHINGTON, Dec 20 (Reuters) - U.S. single-family homebuilding tumbled to a 2-1/2-year low in November and permits for future construction plunged as higher mortgage rates continued to depress housing market activity. We don't know about the rest of the economy, but the housing market is clearly in recession." Single-family housing starts, which account for the biggest share of homebuilding, dropped 4.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 828,000 units last month. The jump in multi-family housing projects offset some of the drag from single-family housing units, resulting in overall housing starts falling only 0.5% to a rate of 1.427 million units last month. The single-family housing market boomed early in the pandemic as Americans sought bigger properties to accommodate home offices.
New home building retreated in November
  + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
Washington CNN —Home building pulled back in November, as buyers faced spiking mortgage rates topping 7% that make homes increasingly unaffordable. Housing starts bounced back a bit in August while mortgage rates briefly retreated. But since that time, mortgage rates have been on the rise, hitting a 20-year high in October. One number that beat estimates was housing starts, he said, but those were weighted to apartments, not single-family homes. “Potential homebuyers should see some relief next year in the form of lower mortgage rates and possibly lower home prices,” said Frick.
Summary Housing starts fall 0.5% in NovemberSingle-family starts drop 4.1%; multi-family up 4.8%Building permits plunge 11.2%; single-family fall 7.1%WASHINGTON, Dec 20 (Reuters) - U.S. single-family homebuilding tumbled to a 2-1/2 year low in November and permits for future construction plunged as higher mortgage rates continued to depress housing market activity. The housing market has borne the brunt of the Federal Reserve's fastest interest rate-hiking cycle since the 1980s as the U.S. central bank wages war against inflation. We don't know about the rest of the economy, but the housing market is clearly in recession." Single-family housing starts, which account for the biggest share of homebuilding, dropped 4.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 828,000 units last month. The jump in multi-family housing projects offset some of the drag from single-family housing units, resulting in overall housing starts falling only 0.5% to a rate of 1.427 million units last month.
Moreover, the unbroken string of declines since last December is the longest in a series that dates to the mid-1980s. The housing market has seen the most pronounced effects so far of the aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes that are aimed at quashing inflation that continues to hold at unacceptably high levels. Reuters GraphicsSince March, the U.S. central bank has lifted its benchmark policy rate from near zero to a range of 4.25%-4.50%. NAHB said nearly two-thirds of builders were offering incentives, including mortgage rate buydowns, paying points for buyers and price reductions. Reuters GraphicsMore key housing market data is due this week.
Homebuilders were less confident about their business in December, but they are starting to see potential green shoots. Builder sentiment in the single-family housing market dropped two points to 31 in December on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. This is the 12th straight month of declines and the lowest reading since mid 2012, with the exception of a very brief drop at the start of the Covid pandemic. Regionally, sentiment was strongest in the Northeast and weakest in the West, where prices are highest. The NAHB continues to blame high mortgage rates, which despite the recent drop are still about twice what they were a year ago.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, December 7, 2022. Stock futures were flat in overnight trading Sunday after the major averages posted their second straight week of losses for the first time since September. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded flat, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.05% and 0.07%, respectively. The 30-stock index shed 1.66% for the week, bringing its monthly losses to 4.83%. The S&P 500 dropped 1.11% and tumbled 2.08% for the week, upping its monthly declines to 5.58%.
An Insider review of FEC filings shows that the National Association of Manufacturers' PAC reported eight instances of stolen and fraudulent checks and bank transfers, amounting to more than $10,000 in losses. Federal Election CommissionAnother trade association, the National Association of Home Builders, reported three instances of "fraudulent debit" during the 2021-2022 election cycle, amounting to more than $20,000 in lost funds. A filing with the FEC from the PAC of the National Association of Home Builders that details money lost from fraudulent disbursements. Federal Election CommissionThe National Association of Home Builders represents more than 140,000 members who construct close to 80% of all the new homes built in the US, per the association's website. The National Association of Home Builders did not respond to Insider's request for comment.
Lennar, the nation's second-largest homebuilder, advertised Black Friday deals on its website. Lennar, the nation's second-largest homebuilder, advertised "Black Friday Deals on select move-in ready homes" at the top of the home page of its website as of Wednesday. Faced with the prospect of paying hundreds of dollars more for a mortgage each month, buyers retreated from the market in droves. Horton, the nation's largest homebuilder, said it was scaling back its production and offering more incentives to buyers to keep deals going. Buyers have continued to pull out of the market amid persistent inflation and high home prices.
"While this could be interpreted as evidence of a softening labor market, we would caution against this. They were boosted by a 5,024 jump in California, likely reflecting the technology sector job cuts. Economists, however, did not expect the technology sector layoffs would be a major drag on the labor market and the overall economy. These so-called core capital goods orders decreased 0.8% in September. Shipments of core capital goods jumped 1.3% after dipping 0.1% in September.
Brendon O'Hagan/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesNew Zealand is at the sharp end of a global housing market squeeze that has grim ramifications for the world economy. “In an ideal world, you’ll get a bit of froth blown off the top [of house prices] and everything is fine. “A decisive increase in unemployment is a very big danger for housing markets,” said Slater of Oxford Economics. Qilai Shen/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesA drag on the economyMost market watchers are not expecting a repeat of the 2008 housing market crash. But even a modest a fall in house prices will knock confidence, causing homeowners to cut back on spending.
Housing starts decreased 4.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.425 million units last month, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday. Data for September was revised higher to a rate of 1.488 million units from the previously reported 1.439 million units. Multi-family housing construction has fared better as the soaring mortgage rates force many potential home buyers to remain renters. Mortgage rates have jumped in response to rampant inflation, which has compelled the Federal Reserve to unleash the fastest interest rate-hiking cycle since the 1980s. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is averaging above 7%, the highest since 2002, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac.
Rent growth slows to the lowest level in 18 months
  + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Rents in October rose 4.7% compared with October 2021, the slowest annual increase in 18 months, according to Realtor.com. The largest gains in rent were in two-bedroom units, as tenants looked for more space in the new work-from-home economy. Rent growth annually has now been slowing for nine straight months and has been in the single-digits for the past three months. Single-family rent growth has been shrinking for the past five months, but is still in the low double-digits, according to CoreLogic. The pressure on multifamily rents is trickling down to both builders and investors.
Homebuilder sentiment in the single-family housing market fell to the lowest level in a decade in November, as builders continue to struggle with higher costs for labor and materials and lower demand from homebuyers. A monthly sentiment index from the National Association of Home Builders dropped 5 points from October to 33. The NAHB said 59% of builders reported using incentives, a significant increase from September to November. In November, 25% of builders reported paying points for buyers, up from 13% in September. In the South, it fell 7 points to 42 and declined 5 points to 29 in the West.
The decline in home prices will accelerate even as sales are headed for a bottom early next year, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. "The good news for homebuilders is that a floor is coming," Pantheon economist Kieran Clancy said in a note. "The good news for homebuilders is that a floor is coming," Pantheon economist Kieran Clancy said in a note. "Mortgage rates have peaked, suggesting that demand will flatten in the months ahead, albeit at an extremely depressed level. Accordingly, we expect housing starts and sales to bottom out early next year, even as the decline in home prices accelerates."
Suzanne Kreiter | The Boston Globe | Getty ImagesWith rising mortgage rates, homeowners are staying in place. By the end of the first quarter of this year, before the steep runup in mortgage rates caused the housing market to falter, homeowners had a collective $11 trillion dollars in so-called tappable equity, according to Black Knight. That equity is part of a three-pronged driver of home improvement, according to the CEO of Lowe's, Marvin Ellison. "The growth rate for improvement spending will slow due to declines for existing home sales," said Robert Dietz, NAHB's chief economist. "However, an aging housing stock, work from home trends and a decline for household mobility all favor remodeling spending."
John Burns Real Estate Consulting expects price drops of 20% or more for certain housing markets. Higher mortgage rates have wrecked demand for homes, but the firm says prices are still too high. Devyn Bachman, the senior vice president of research for John Burns, told Insider she had begun to expect "GFC-like pricing declines in certain markets." A survey conducted by John Burns last month found roughly 18% of homebuilders were already reporting year-over-year net home-price declines. "It's going to be a challenging one to two years for anyone involved in housing," Bachman said.
Mortgage rates rise again, creeping closer to 7%
  + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
Mortgage rates have more than doubled since the beginning of this year as the Federal Reserve pushed ahead with its unprecedented campaign of hiking interest rates in order to tame soaring inflation. Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds. As investors see or anticipate rate hikes, they make moves which send yields higher and mortgage rates rise. This week, the 10-year US Treasury hit a high not seen since 2008, an indication that mortgage rates could rise even further. Affordability remains a challengeHigher mortgage rates are making it even harder for prospective buyers to afford a home.
U.S. housing starts fall in September; building permits rise
  + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Housing starts dropped 8.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.439 million units last month. Data for August was revised down to a rate of 1.566 million units from the previously reported 1.575 million units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast starts would come in at a rate of 1.475 million units. Permits for future home construction rose 1.4% to a rate of 1.564 million units in September. Residential fixed investment declined at its steepest pace in two years in the second quarter, contributing to the second straight quarterly drop in gross domestic product during that period.
Like prospective homeowners, homebuilders aren't happy with the housing market, either. The housing market isn't working for most Americans. In September, residential homebuilding slowed as housing starts decreased 8.1% from August levels, according to a report from the US Census Bureau that was released on Wednesday. During the month, single-family housing starts decreased 4.7% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 892,000. "This will be the first year since 2011 to see a decline for single-family starts," Robert Dietz, the chief economist for the National Association of Homebuilders, said.
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