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☆ Futures dip after Wall St rally, focus on Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The S&P 500 (.SPX) has risen 20% from its Oct. 12 closing low, heralding the start of a new bull market, as defined by some market participants. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 have notched new year-to-date highs in recent sessions, boosted by an AI-driven rally in megacap stocks, a better-than-expected earnings season and expectations that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle. Fed fund futures are pricing in a 76% chance that the U.S. central bank will hold interest rates at the current 5%-5.25% range at its June 13-14 policy meeting, according to CMEGroup's Fedwatch tool. Signs of a resilient U.S. economy and hopes of the Fed pausing its aggressive monetary tightening have pushed volatility gauges tumbling. ET, Dow e-minis were down 75 points, or 0.22%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 6.25 points, or 0.15%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 5.75 points, or 0.04%.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Sruthi Shankar, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, BNP Paribas, Apple Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Microsoft Corp, Tesla Inc, General Motors, Tesla, GM, Dow e, Target Corp, Citi, Thomson Locations: megacap, U.S, Bengaluru

☆ Futures muted as bond yields rise on rate jitters
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures up: Dow 0.01%, S&P 0.06%, Nasdaq 0.09%June 8 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were largely flat on Thursday as government bond yields hovered near recent highs on worries that major central banks could keep raising interest rates. The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) closed lower on Wednesday, with megacap stocks leading declines as U.S. bond yields rose after the Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised markets with an interest rate hike. The 2-year Treasury yield , which tends to move in step with short-term rate expectations, rose for a third day to 4.56%, as investors await the Federal Reserve meet next week. Eventually we don't think the Fed will hike in July," Jefferies strategist Mohit Kumar said. They see a 50% chance of a rate hike in July.

Persons: Jefferies, Mohit Kumar, Russell, Thierry Breton, Ryan Cohen, Zhu Jiang, Sruthi Shankar, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Bank of Canada, BoC, Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Treasury, Reserve, Traders, U.S . Labor Department, Dow e, Meta, Inc, GameStop Corp, Thomson Locations: U.S, KBW, China, Bengaluru

☆ Futures inch lower on Fed policy caution, China data hits sentiment
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary Futures down: Nasdaq 0.16%, Dow 0.13%, S&P 0.08%June 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures edged lower on Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of inflation data and the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week, while worse-than-expected China exports data for May hit sentiment. U.S. shares have also been boosted by a rally in megacap stocks and a stronger-than-expected earnings season. However, some analysts say that profit-taking may be round the corner for big tech and other major growth stocks. ET, Dow e-minis were down 43 points, or 0.13%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 3.5 points, or 0.08%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 23.25 points, or 0.16%. Shares of Yext Inc jumped 18.4% premarket after the New York-based online marketing firm raised its annual earnings forecast.

Persons: Charalampos Pissouros, Wells Fargo, Shubham Batra, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, XM, Dow e, Netflix, Securities and Exchange Commission, Invest, Yext Inc, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, Coinbase, York, Bengaluru

☆ Futures slip as mixed data clouds Fed policy outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures down: Dow 0.14%, S&P 0.09%, Nasdaq 0.03%June 6 (Reuters) - Wall Street futures slipped on Tuesday as investors assessed chances of the Federal Reserve holding interest rate at its meeting next week, with mixed data adding to uncertainty around the policy outlook. While that signaled the Fed's monetary tightening was cooling the world's largest economy, it comes close on the heels of strong jobs data last week, clouding the outlook for the Fed's policy path. Investors are now focused on inflation data due next week ahead of the Fed meet. Consumer prices are likely to have cooled slightly on a month-over-month basis in May but core prices are expected to have remained sticky. Fed fund futures imply traders have priced in a 76% chance that the Fed will hold interest rates in the 5%-5.25% range, according to CMEGroup's Fedwatch tool.

Persons: Piper Sandler, Sruthi Shankar, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Wall, Federal Reserve, Fed, Dow e, Apple Inc, Meta, Devices, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Thomson Locations: U.S, megacap, Bengaluru

"That would suggest that core prices will come down, albeit at a much slower rate than originally thought." ET, Dow e-minis were up 31 points, or 0.09%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 2.75 points, or 0.06%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 17 points, or 0.12%. Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW.O) climbed 4.6% as the cybersecurity firm looks set to replace Dish Network (DISH.O) in the S&P 500 index. Apple Inc (AAPL.O) rose 1.0% ahead of its annual software developer conference, where it is widely expected to announce a new mixed-reality headset. Reporting by Sruthi Shankar and Shristi Achar A in Bengaluru Editing by Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Michael Hewson, Loretta Mester, Sruthi Shankar, Shristi, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Wall, Traders, CMC Markets, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Fed Cleveland, Dow e, . Energy, Exxon Mobil Corp, Chevron Corp, Schlumberger Ltd, Saudi, Palo Alto Networks, Dish Network, Big, Wall Street Journal, Bank of America Corp, Citigroup Inc, Apple Inc, Thomson Locations: Saudi Arabia, U.S, Washington, Big U.S, Bengaluru

☆ SNAPSHOT Futures extend gains after May jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

June 2 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures extended gains on Friday after data showed a slight cooling in average hourly wages and a small rise in unemployment in May, reinforcing bets that the Federal Reserve will skip raising interest rates again in June. Fed funds futures trading still showed an over 70% probability that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at its June 13-14 policy meeting. ET, Dow e-minis were up 203 points, or 0.61%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 23.25 points, or 0.55%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 54 points, or 0.37%. Moments before the data, Dow e-minis were up 138 points, or 0.42%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 17.5 points, or 0.41%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 65.25 points, or 0.45%. Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju SamuelOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Shreyashi Sanyal, Maju Samuel Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor, Dow e, Nasdaq, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru

The Senate passed a bill late on Thursday to lift the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, avoiding a catastrophic, first-ever default. The Labor Department's closely watched employment report, due 0830 ET, is expected to still show a tight labor market. Fed funds futures trading showed an over 70% probability that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at its June 13-14 policy meeting. ET, Dow e-minis were up 185 points, or 0.56%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 21.25 points, or 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 63 points, or 0.44%. Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Nivedita Bhattacharjee and Maju SamuelOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: FEDWATCH, Russ Mould, AJ Bell, Germany's, Shreyashi Sanyal, Nivedita Bhattacharjee, Maju Samuel Organizations: Nike, Broadcom, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Fed, Labor, FEDWATCH Reuters, Dow e, Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc, Tesla Inc, Athletica, Dow Jones, Nike Inc, Germany's Adidas, Puma, Broadcom Inc, Nvidia Corp, Nvidia, Thomson Locations: Washington, United States, Europe, Bengaluru

"The bill now moves to the Senate, where we believe it will clear the 60-vote hurdle after some political and procedural posturing," analysts at BTIG said. ET, Dow e-minis were up 13 points, or 0.04%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 10 points, or 0.24%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 22.5 points, or 0.16%. The S&P Global manufacturing PMI and the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing PMI for May will also be on the watch list. C3.ai Inc (AI.N) slumped 22.8% after the artificial intelligence company forecast annual revenue outlook below street estimates. Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal and Shristi Achar A in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta and Maju SamuelOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: BTIG, Philip Jefferson, Patrick Harker, Shreyashi Sanyal, Shristi, Shounak Dasgupta, Maju Samuel Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Republicans, Senate, Dow e, U.S . Federal Reserve, Labor, P Global, PMI, Institute for Supply, Fed Governor, Philadelphia Fed, Dow Jones, Nordstrom, Macy's Inc, Dollar General Corp, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru

ET (1900 GMT), to discuss the debt ceiling bill. "The market is cautiously pricing in that the deal has been done," said Thomas Hayes, chairman at Great Hill Capital LLC. Nvidia Corp (NVDA.O) jumped 4.8% in premarket trading after it said on Monday it was building Israel's most powerful AI supercomputer to meet soaring customer demand for AI applications. Other chipmakers including Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD.O), Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL.O) and Intel Corp (INTC.O) added about 3% each. May consumer confidence data is due shortly after markets open, while the Labor Department's closely watched nonfarm payrolls data for May is due on Friday.

U.S. President Joe Biden and Republican House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Sunday signed off on an agreement to temporarily suspend the debt ceiling and cap some federal spending. ET (1900 GMT), to discuss the debt ceiling bill. Reflecting investor optimism, the cost of insuring exposure to a U.S. debt default fell further on Tuesday, while yields on longer-dated U.S. Treasuries fell. Other chipmakers including Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD.O), Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL.O) and Intel Corp (INTC.O) added about 3% each. ET, Dow e-minis were up 60 points, or 0.18%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 22.75 points, or 0.54%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 157.25 points, or 1.1%.

☆ Asian stocks dip as investors question consequences of US debt deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Scott Murdoch | Thomson Reuters | Scott Murdoch Has Been A Journalist For More Than Two Decades Working For Thomson Reuters | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The package still has to be approved by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and Democratic-controlled Senate before the debt limit is reached, likely by next Monday. The bond market is implying there is an extreme 70% probability on a U.S. recession in the next year. Australian shares (.AXJO) were down 0.11% while the Nikkei stock index (.N225) rose 0.36%, after the Japanese benchmark hit a 33-year high on optimism over the U.S debt deal and a weaker yen, which helps the country's exporters. Benchmark 10-year yields dropped 6 basis points during Asian trade to 3.7616% while thirty-year yields fell 6.3 bps to 3.9134%. With the debt deal heading to Congress for approval, JB Were analysts said there could be up to $600 billion worth of bill issuance in the next six to eight weeks.

In Asian trade, longer-dated U.S. Treasuries rallied on Tuesday as bond traders welcomed the deal to suspend Washington's borrowing limit. "There's still a huge disconnect between bond markets and equities. The deal suspends the debt ceiling until January 2025 in exchange for caps on spending and cuts in government programmes. While U.S cash markets were closed on Monday, S&P 500 e-minis were up 0.32%, reflecting the positive reaction to the debt deal. With the debt deal heading to Congress for approval, JB Were analysts said there could be up to $600 billion worth of bill issuance in the next six to eight weeks.

May 28 (Reuters) - Global investors are gaming out how a tentative deal to raise the United States debt ceiling could ripple through markets, as lawmakers strive to pass the agreement through Congress before a June 5 deadline. U.S. five-year credit default swaps narrowed, meaning that the cost of insuring against exposure to a U.S. debt default fell. “The debt ceiling agreement is only the first step in saving the government from the brink of illiquidity.”The deal suspends the debt ceiling until January 2025 in exchange for caps on spending and cuts in government programs. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday set a deadline for raising the federal debt limit, saying the government would default if Congress does not increase the debt ceiling by June 5. Optimism that a debt ceiling deal was near and hefty gains in AI-related stocks helped the S&P 500 (.SPX) close at its highest level since August 2022 on Friday.

[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, May 26, 2023. U.S. President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy reached a tentative deal on Saturday to raise the federal government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, aiming to stop the U.S. from defaulting on its debt. The deal is expected to provide only short-term relief for markets, as worries linger about inflation and further rate increases. European stock indexes initially opened higher, then faltered, with Europe's STOXX 600 down 0.1% on the day (.STOXX). If the debt ceiling deal passes through Congress, then market attention will return to the U.S. Federal Reserve's plans for rates, according to Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier.

S&P 500 futures hit a 15-week high in early trading, while Nasdaq e-minis breached levels not seen in nine months. The positive momentum carried through for much of the week as investors tracked progress in talks between top U.S. lawmakers for an agreement on increasing the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. ET, Dow e-minis were up 101 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 12.25 points, or 0.29%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 6 points, or 0.04%. The benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX) and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) were set for their best weekly performance since late March amid positive debt ceiling talks, less-than-feared earnings and economic data. The S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK) is on course to end the week 5.3% higher, snapping a three-week losing streak.

☆ Futures edge higher on hopes of debt deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures up: Dow 0.10%, S&P 0.13%, Nasdaq 0.14%May 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Friday on optimism that a deal to avoid a catastrophic U.S. debt default could be reached over the weekend. ET, Dow e-minis were up 32 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 5.5 points, or 0.13%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 20 points, or 0.14%. S&P 500 futures hit a 15-week high in early trading, while Nasdaq e-minis breached levels not seen in nine months. The benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX) and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) were set for their best weekly performance since late March amid positive debt ceiling talks, less-than-feared earnings and economic data. Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju SamuelOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) constituent Cisco Systems Inc's (CSCO.O) shares fell 4.3% in premarket trading after it said a large backlog of products weighed on demand for new orders from customers. Shares of Walmart Inc (WMT.N) rose 1.7% after the retailer raised its annual sales and profit targets, befitting from inflation-wary consumers trading down to cheaper groceries. ET, Dow e-minis were down 31 points, or 0.09%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 1.75 points, or 0.04%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 15 points, or 0.11%. Bath & Body Works Inc (BBWI.N) gained 13% after the beauty and skincare firm raised its annual profit forecast. Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he welcomed and expected more investment from global chipmakers in the country.

Shares of U.S. regional banks rose, led by a 11.6% premarket rise in Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N) as the lender's deposit growth exceeded $2 billion and brokerage Bank of America Global Research resumed coverage of the bank with a "buy" rating. U.S. President Joe Biden will continue talks with congressional leaders on the debt ceiling later this week, the White House said one day after an hour-long meeting seen as productive. "Cautious optimism expressed from both President (Joe) Biden and Speaker (Kevin) McCarthy about the progress of the debt talks has made people feel a little bit better," said Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities. Target Corp(TGT.N) edged 0.4% higher in choppy trading after the retailer beat first-quarter profit expectations but forecast current-quarter profit below expectations. ET, Dow e-minis were up 129 points, or 0.39%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 13 points, or 0.32%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 18.5 points, or 0.14%.

☆ Futures edge higher as debt ceiling talks grind on, Target results eyed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Wall Street's main indexes closed lower on Tuesday after weak results from Home Depot (HD.N) and a reading on U.S. April retail sales that missed expectations highlighted the impact of higher prices and interest rates on consumers. The company is also seen reporting a rise in first-quarter revenue, helped by steady demand from cost-conscious consumers. Democratic President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy on Tuesday made progress in talks to determine whether to increase the U.S. debt limit. After an hour of talks, however, McCarthy told reporters the two sides remained far apart on an agreement. ET, Dow e-minis were up 85 points, or 0.26%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 9.25 points, or 0.22%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 16.25 points, or 0.12%.

The Commerce Department reported retail sales rose 0.4% in April, at half the pace against an expected increase of 0.8%. "The retail sales data has been positive in several months, but it's still weak," said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. You are probably seeing the end of the decline in retail sales, but it's not going to be a smooth ride from here." "There is little chance we will see a resolution to the U.S. debt ceiling issue today," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. "The negotiations will likely remain tight as Republicans ask decent spending cuts to accept a debt ceiling relief, while Biden is not willing to compromise on spending into the election year."

The main indexes started the week with modest gains as trading was range-bound amid a wrangling in Washington between the White House and Republicans. "There is little chance we will see a resolution to the U.S. debt ceiling issue today," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. Shares of rival Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW.N) fell 3.2%, while retail giant Walmart Inc (WMT.N) slipped 0.4%. Focus will also be on economic data, with retail sales expected to increase by 0.8% in April after falling 0.6% in the month before. ET, Dow e-minis were down 80 points, or 0.24%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 3 points, or 0.07%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 5.25 points, or 0.04%.

"And as Washington leaks out increments with rolling disclosure about how the discussions are proceeding ... that probably is bolstering confidence in investors." ET, Dow e-minis were up 51 points, or 0.15%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 7.5 points, or 0.18%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 20.75 points, or 0.15%. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday he does not expect any interest-rate cuts this year as he does not see inflation going down as fast as market participants believe. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed Board Governor Lisa Cook are among other Fed officials set to speak later in the day. Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Nivedita BhattacharjeeOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Futures edge higher in early hours on debt talks optimism
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures up: Dow 0.32%, S&P 0.37%, Nasdaq 0.33%May 15 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Monday amid optimism that lawmakers will reach an agreement to raise the U.S. debt limit to avoid a catastrophic default, and ahead of speeches by Federal Reserve officials lined up through the week. ET, Dow e-minis were up 108 points, or 0.32%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 15.5 points, or 0.37%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 44.5 points, or 0.33%. Markets are waiting to hear them to gauge the pricing of rate cuts this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 1.1% last week, while the S&P 500 index (.SPX) fell 0.3% and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) rose 0.4%. Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Nivedita BhattacharjeeOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Stocks tiptoe higher as US inflation data offers hope
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Lawrence White | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's gauge of global equity performance (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.03% after the Labor Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.9% year-over-year in April, against expectations of 5%. "Bigger picture, I think the market is hyper fixated on the ‘pause’ but a pause is still restrictive overall," he said. The dollar index hit a session low of 101.36 after the headline April inflation data, while benchmark 10-year German bond yields edged down 4 basis points. Emerging markets currencies rallied on Wednesday following the U.S. data, with MSCI's index (.MIEM00000CUS) up 0.26%. Spot gold turned positive after the CPI data, last trading up 0.3%.

The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.9% in April from a year ago and compared with expectations of a 5% increase. "You still have a reasonably strong economy and rates that are not going any higher." ET, Dow e-minis were up 181 points, or 0.54%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 33.75 points, or 0.82%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 116.25 points, or 0.88%. Shares of regional banks rose after a few volatile sessions last week on concerns about the health of the sector. Oil and gas producer Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY.N) fell 0.9% after its first-quarter earnings fell short of analysts' estimates.

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