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☆ There's no new bull market yet, Morgan Stanley says. Here's the smart way to stay invested safely and book bigger profits from the future bull run.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Some experts think they will kickstart a new bull market in stocks. He says investors should be cautious and de-emphasize tech stocks until the market finds a new low. "Bank stocks are leading indicators, and we would be hard pressed to find a new bull market where they were underperforming," as they are now, he wrote. The right time to invest more heavily in tech stocks will be after a clear long-term low has been established. "We see little evidence that a new bull market has begun and believe the bear still has unfinished business."

☆ Shark Tank investor Kevin O'Leary breaks down his latest crypto bet as regulators look to crush 'rogue' operators
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

I caught up with Shark Tank investor Kevin O'Leary, an active crypto investor and market veteran, to get his take on the digital asset sector and recent regulatory action. Since November, he's moved his holdings to Canada, where he uses WonderFi, a name he's backed as an investor. They told regulators 'go get them,' and all of a sudden we have a mountain of enforcement action." The SEC said it's "neutral" about the technology at hand, yet "anything but neutral when it comes to investor protection." I bet if you looked at who's managing these companies 36 months from now, all the current guys are gone."

☆ Tech ripped higher to start the year. Here's how the pros are trading the sector in the new quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

After the worst year for tech since 2008 , many investors questioned whether the market could move higher in the new year without the sector's cooperation. Names such as Apple , Microsoft and Amazon gained about 27%, 20% and 23% in the first quarter, respectively, as yields pushed lower. Amid this backdrop, Alphabet shares gained 17.6% in the first quarter as the company launched it's Bard chatbot rival. Not all investors view big tech so optimistically heading into the new quarter. Much of the surge in tech stocks stems from the oversold conditions created during 2022's carnage, positioning many of these stocks for a bounce, Meeks said.

☆ US stocks end mixed as energy sector rides surge in oil prices while tech stocks fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The energy sector jumped alongside crude oil prices. Brent and WTI oil soared after OPEC+ announced production cuts will start in May. Tech stocks were weighed by the renewed prospect of higher interest rates. The S&P 500's energy sector was thrust in the spotlight, logging its best day in six months as Brent and WTI oil prices surged. Tech stocks fell on the prospect that more rate hikes may be in the Fed's pipeline.

Investors may want to look somewhere other than tech for safety, according to Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. Tech is the best-performing sector this year, up more than 20% and outpacing the S & P 500 's 7% advance. Recently, tech stocks got a boost after bond yields fell amidst volatility in the banking sector. Morgan Stanley looked for defensive stocks to own in a bear market. His 2023 S & P 500 target of 3,900 is also the third-lowest in CNBC Pro's Market Strategist Survey.

☆ 'Cracks in the foundation': 3 leading Wall Street strategists reveal the overlooked reason why stocks are on shaky ground right now — and how to invest with a downturn looming
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-02 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Instead, they've been propelled by large caps and growth stocks, specifically tech. If not for a small number of mega-cap growth stocks, the S&P 500 wouldn't be staying afloat. Last year investors learned the hard way that narrow markets are dangerous, as tech stocks tumbled during the market selloff. "Breadth has been exceptionally weak as large-cap growth stocks hold up the major averages," Wilson wrote in a late March note. Outside of tech, Lebovitz highlighted traditional defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities.

☆ 5 must-see charts that show why the economy is barreling toward disaster — putting stocks at risk for massive declines
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below-trend growth and some softening in labor market conditions," Powell said. "Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run." A large enough pullback in lending will send the economy into a downward spiral, he said. "If you get a credit crunch, you could have an immediate downturn in the economy, a very quick downturn," he said. Credit spreads are the gap between high-risk bond yields and yields on risk-free bonds.

☆ This isn’t a 2008-style financial crisis but stocks could still crash 25%, SoFi’s top strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Today I'm eager to share this week's conversation with a top investment strategist who's anticipating trouble ahead for the economy. In the financial crisis, it was down 58% from peak to trough. I do not think that this is a repeat of the financial crisis. Investors should brace for an earnings recession and continued financial uncertainty, chief investment officer Mike Wilson explained. A crisis in the financial sector has rattled investors but markets look poised to avoid a crash.

☆ Stocks could be shaky in the week ahead as sigh-of-relief rally runs its course
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market is about to enter one of the seasonally strongest months of the year, but volatility could persist in the week ahead with fading momentum and a big jobs report. The stock market is closed that day to observe Good Friday. Week ahead calendar Monday 10:00 a.m. Construction Spending, Feb. 10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing, March Tuesday 10:00 a.m. Factory Orders, Feb. 10:00 a.m. JOLTS, Feb. Wednesday 7:00 a.m. Mortgage Applications 8:15 a.m. ADP, March 8:30 a.m. Trade Balance, Feb. 10:00 a.m. ISM Service, March Thursday Earnings: Constellation Brands 8:30 a.m. Initial claims Friday The stock market is closed for Good Friday 8:30 a.m. Nonfarm Payrolls

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, March 28, 2023. Brendan McDermid | ReutersWall Street investors believe the stock market is headed for losses after a positive first quarter, seeing cash as the best safe haven right now, according to the new CNBC Delivering Alpha investor survey. Zoom In Icon Arrows pointing outwardsThe Fed enacted a quarter percentage point interest rate increase last week, while signaling one more rate hike coming this year. Many investors believe the central bank should reverse course immediately as more rate hikes will exacerbate banking problems and cause a severe economic slowdown. With an overall bearish view on the market, 60% of the investors said cash is their safe haven right now.

☆ The bank crisis threatens to spark a credit crunch as Main Street banks pull back
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

A possible consequence of the banking crisis is that households and businesses may soon find it harder to get a loan from their bank. Around $1 trillion in deposits have been pulled from smaller and mid-sized banks since the Fed began hiking rates last year, with half that fleeing banks since SVB collapsed. "The uncertainty generated by deposit movements could cause banks to become more cautious on lending," JPMorgan strategists wrote in a note. "This risk is heightened by the fact that mid- and small-size banks play a disproportionately large role in US bank lending." This likely could impact the trajectory of the economy, as regional and community banks are a massive source of credit to Main Street borrowers.

☆ The US is in a 'rolling recession' but financials and retail stocks have repriced and present opportunities, Morgan Stanley's chief stock strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said the US is in a rolling recession but opportunities exist in stocks still. In an interview with Bloomberg, the chief strategist explains why financials and retail look attractive. Wilson has long been bullish on the stock market, predicting that 2023 could see steep declines in equity prices. "Markets go through these periods I call a rolling bear market [or] rolling recession," Wilson told Bloomberg on Monday. The chief stock strategist, who previously sounded the alarm on the worst earnings recession since 2008, has been steadily bearish in recent months.

☆ Morgan Stanley: Buy these 32 stocks to prepare for an unexpected earnings drop and more market volatility
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Buy these 32 stocks to get defensive and protect your portfolio, Morgan Stanley says. Although US stocks have held up admirably during the market turmoil of the last few weeks, Morgan Stanley remains more cautious than optimistic. Consensus estimates for Q1 have already fallen by 6% this quarter, but Morgan Stanley sees even more downside ahead. Other than earnings, Morgan Stanley is concerned that bond market volatility will affect stocks. 32 defensive stocks to buy nowWith weaker earnings and more market volatility ahead, Morgan Stanley recommends buying large, stable stocks in three defensive sectors: consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities.

☆ Mike Wilson says an earnings-driven stock decline is imminent so get defensive with these two stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors are still too optimistic about corporate earnings, and a severe deterioration is about to drag stocks lower, according to Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief investment officer. "This is typically how bear markets end—i.e., P/E multiples fall precipitously and unexpectedly, catching many investors off guard," Wilson said. "The recent underperformance of small caps and low quality stocks suggests it could be imminent." "We believe it's underappreciated how significant the negative operating leverage is going to get before this earnings recession is over," Wilson said. Given such a negative outlook, Morgan Stanley looked for defensive stocks to own that should fare better in a bear market.

☆ The downside risk to the stock market is the highest it's been in a year as earnings face pressure, Morgan Stanley's chief stock strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks are still set to see earnings pressure, and investors shouldn't be fooled by the tech rally, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said. Previously, he predicted the worst earnings recession since 2008 to strike the market. In an interview with Bloomberg TV on Monday, Wilson pushed back against bullish market commentators who are championing the current rally in tech stocks. "The malinvestment was just so egregious and the overearning was even worse," he said of tech stocks' strong performance. Wilson has been bearish on stocks for months and previously sounded the alarm for the worst earnings recession since 2008 to hit the market.

☆ Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse, and what to know about the financial turmoil — and how one company is working to boost the number of women on Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The program collaborates with UPenn's Wharton business school, and it teaches college women the fundamentals of markets, portfolio management, and finance. Katherine Jollon Colsher, President and CEO, Girls Who Invest Girls Who InvestKatherine Jollon Colsher is the chief executive officer and president of Girls Who Invest, a nonprofit that aims to help women enter asset management and other careers across Wall Street. Katherine Jollon Colsher: We work exclusively in the buy side, and we do focus exclusively on placing women in internships and frontline investing roles to advance more women portfolio managers. With that, our vision is for 30% of the world's investable capital to be managed by women by 2030. Shares of the German bank tumbled on Friday, as the cost of credit default swaps linked to its bonds shot higher.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns that the stock sell-off is 'not over by a long shot' — and that the S&P 500 could sink by more than 50%
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Hussman called the 2000 and 2008 stock market crashes. Sure, the S&P 500 is down 17% from its peak on the first day of trading in 2022, 15 months ago. But the numbers don't lie, says Hussman, who called the 2000 and 2008 stock market crashes. Wilson sees the S&P 500 bottoming between 3,000-3,300, making him one of the more bearish strategists on the Street. Predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did.

☆ A 'boxed-in' Fed will tank stocks from dot-com-level valuations after it raises rates, warns Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's CIO. She shares 5 areas of the market to find safety in.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

With returns bound to be muted, Shalett likes investments outside of US stocks. "Market psychology has been shaken, setting off a dynamic that likely raises the odds of an imminent recession. Morgan Stanley Wealth ManagementShalett doesn't expect the size of decline her Morgan Stanley colleague Mike Wilson sees. However, with spreads widening and long-term rates reflecting a more reasonable terminal value, bonds are a decent relative portfolio hedge," Shalett said. And finally, active money managers like hedge funds should outperform in an environment where index returns are muted, Shalett said.

☆ Morgan Stanley says these 30 stocks are best positioned for long-term gains as inflation, interest rates, and a banking crisis turn markets upside down
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

But the chaos has also ushered in the beginning of the end of current bear market, said Mike Wilson. Morgan Stanley shared 30 stocks to buy for long-term outperformance in the next bull market. In fact, Wilson believes that a decline in credit availability may even point to the beginning of the end of the current bear market. In a note from March 21, Wilson and fellow equity strategist Michelle Weaver highlighted the top stocks identified by Morgan Stanley analysts to buy for outperformance and longevity. However, they cautioned that current market pricing or positioning played no role in determining their basket of top stocks.

☆ Here are 3 important reasons why stocks shouldn't be rallying in the wake of bank bailouts, and why bond investors are right to be bearish, according to Morgan Stanley
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Stocks have risen as investors conclude that authorities will prevent a bank crisis from spreading. He says that tighter credit conditions and the economy will weaken, and stocks look expensive. While bank stocks are still down, the rest of the market is collectively higher since the crisis started. But even if that's true, Morgan Stanley says investors are far too optimistic right now. In short, Wilson wrote that investors who see conditions in markets right now as positive for stocks, especially for tech, are making a mistake.

Economists who obsess about tightly calibrating the quantity of money in the system balk at QE as a tool. Two weeks of turmoil in mid-sized U.S. banks follow just nine months in which the Fed had been winding down its outsize balance sheet that peaked near $9 trillion during the pandemic. "Illiquidity episodes may force central banks to slow the process of reserve withdrawal. Reuters GraphicsILLIQUIDTY EPISODESThis could become a trap that prevents normalisation of the balance sheet longer term, they said. Better-measured and more forward-looking liquidity regulations, incentives for longer-duration deposits during QE bouts and rethinking stress tests were all options, they wrote.

☆ Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says this is the beginning of the end for the bear market
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

While traders are taking the regulatory backstop of deposits as a positive sign for markets, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson expects otherwise. The S & P 500 rose in Monday trading following a forced takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS that was orchestrated by regulators . The S & P 500 is also coming off a positive week, rising 1.4%. .SPX 5D mountain S & P 500 coming off of strong week. Net interest margin measures the difference between a bank's interest income and interest expenses .

☆ It's too early to call a bottom for the stock market because there's more pain coming for regional banks, BlackRock strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The banking crisis hasn't fully played out so it's too soon to call a market bottom, a BlackRock strategist said. In particular, there's "more pain" headed towards smaller banks, Gargi Chaudhuri told Bloomberg TV. She added that looming regulatory changes for the banking system would likely impact stock prices. There's also "more pain to be felt" for smaller banks, the strategists said, adding that this will lead to lower credit growth — and slower economic growth as well. "The bottom line is that we think this is exactly how bear markets end," the chief equity strategist said in a note.

☆ US stocks jump as traders hope worst of banking crisis has passed
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks closed higher Monday as investors tried to navigate uncertainty in the banking system. UBS' takeover of Credit Suisse over the weekend cooled some fears of a wider crisis. Morgan Stanley said recent bank failures mark what's likely to be a "vicious" end to the bear market. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. Over the weekend, UBS agreed to acquire Credit Suisse for $3.25 billion at the urging of the Swiss government.

☆ The bear market for stocks is almost over but the last phase may be 'vicious,' Morgan Stanley CIO says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed's rush to provide liquidity does not equate to quantitative easing, Mike Wilson wrote. "The bottom line is that we think this is exactly how bear markets end," Morgan Stanley's CIO said. But the last phase of a bear market can be "vicious," Wilson added in a note. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. "The bottom line is that we think this is exactly how bear markets end," the reputed bearish analyst wrote.

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