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The job market is about to see a big shift that could bring faster Fed rate cuts, David Rosenberg said. That will emphasize the need for faster Fed rate cuts, he said in a note to clients. The ratio of the vacancy rate to the unemployment rate has tumbled in recent months. It's the unemployment rate that's moving up (+0.5 percentage points this year alone), while the vacancy rate has stabilized." "As the labor market eases, we'll see more modest changes in the vacancy rate and larger changes in the unemployment rate.
Persons: David Rosenberg, , Rosenberg, we've, Powell Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed, Atlanta
Here we go again: Egg prices are spiking. Here’s why
  + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Egg prices spiked by 28.1% in August from 12 months ago, easily the biggest increase out of any food item tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The main culprit for rising egg prices is a familiar one: bird flu. Where egg prices are rising the mostStill, the current BLS average of $3.20 per dozen eggs remains high. Zooming in to focus on just the past year, Datasembly found that egg prices have increased the most in Hawaii (+49%), Minnesota (+44%) and Alabama (+38%). When egg prices spiked to record highs in early 2023, Cal-Maine’s profit skyrocketed 718%.
Persons: , Phil Lempert, they’ve, Price, Brian Moscogiuri, Datasembly, Moscogiuri, graf, ” Moscogiuri, Kevin Bergquist, Musharbash, Emily Metz, ” Metz, Lempert, Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Centers for Disease Control, Prevention, US Department of Agriculture, USDA, CNN, Shoppers, Food Institute, Farm, Maine Foods, Cal, Basel Musharbash, Monopoly, American Egg Board, SNAP Locations: New York, Minnesota, Missouri, Iowa, Oklahoma, Alabama, Hawaii, Wells, United States, Cal, Maine, Basel, Texas
The firm's chief global strategist, Peter Berezin, pointed to two low-key labor market indicators flashing warning signals this month. AdvertisementHistorically, that number has always increased in the early stages of a recession, Berezin says. Meanwhile, recent survey data shows a narrowing gap in positive and negative labor market sentiment. On average, the peak in the labor differential comes nine months ahead of a recession, Berezin says. He says the data points to the contrary, with a slowdown in year-over-year labor force growth from 1.9% a year ago to 0.4% in August.
Persons: , Peter Berezin, Berezin, landers Organizations: Service, BCA Research, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Conference Board
More borrowers are carrying debt from month to month and a growing number are falling behind on their monthly credit card payments. Over the last year, roughly 9.1% of credit card balances transitioned into delinquency, the New York Fed reported for the second quarter of 2024. Nearly half, 44%, of Americans said credit card debt is the biggest threat to their ability to build wealth, according to Edelman Financial Engines. "High-interest rate credit card debt, more than other sorts of debt, is a savings killer, because when you have it, you have to feed the beast. Among millionaires, 68% said they would need at least $3 million and 40% said feeling wealthy would require $5 million of more.
Persons: Chatzky, Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics, New York Fed, Edelman
In a note to clients, Slok issued a more positive outlook on the US job market, even as hiring has slowed this year. "It is inconsistent to say that the incoming economic data is strong but the labor market is weakening," Slok wrote. AdvertisementHowever, consumption and business spending data have been strong in recent months. If the 30-year fixed rate slumps to around 5%, that could that could spark a rebound in home sales, providing a boost to the economy and job market, Slok said. AdvertisementThe outlook for the job market, though, remains mixed, with some commentators warning that hiring could continue to slow due to the lagged impact of the Fed's rate hikes.
Persons: , Torsten Slok, Slok, Freddie Mac, David Rosenberg, who's Organizations: Service, Apollo Global Management, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Challenger, IRA, Atlanta Fed Locations: Atlanta
Read previewMario Vasquez Zuniga, 29, got a taste of entrepreneurship three years before he launched his own business. In 2023, Vasquez Zuniga quit his job and cofounded Collective, a consulting firm, with former colleague Thea Appling. Vasquez Zuniga is a first-generation college graduate who earned his degree from San Francisco State University in 2016. Vasquez Zuniga has another advantage: He's a native Spanish speaker, and he said nearly all of the people he works with are bilingual. Vasquez Zuniga added that setting milestones is also key for new entrepreneurs.
Persons: , Mario Vasquez Zuniga, Vasquez Zuniga, Thea Appling, " Vasquez Zuniga, who's, undervalue, they've, hasn't Organizations: Service, Lucas Public Affairs, Business, Treasury Department, Bureau of Labor Statistics, San Francisco State University, Small Business Administration, CPA, Sacramento Valley Small Business Development Center, Immigrants Locations: Palmdale , California, Sacramento, El Salvador, Spanish
The job market is flashing signs the US is still headed for a hard-landing, Danielle DiMartino Booth says. The forecaster pointed to workers rolling off unemployment benefits, while part-time jobs have soared. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The veteran forecaster and QI Research founder pointed to continued signs of weakness in the US job market, zooming in on a few key areas that are flashing signs of trouble. Booth said that more workers who once qualified for unemployment insurance are now rolling off of their benefits.
Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, , Booth Organizations: Consumers, Service, QI Research, Workers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business
Today, it is just over $3,000,” said Harris, who also serves as chair of the National Association of Home Builders. Vice President Kamala Harris has proposed offering $25,000 in down payment assistance to first-time homebuyers and incentives to homebuilders to construct more housing for first-time homebuyers. Former President Donald Trump has said he would lower housing costs by opening federal land to development, rolling back regulations and reducing overall inflation. But homebuilders say they face a web of challenges that have been nearly two decades in the making and will likely take years to resolve. One major barrier to driving down prices and increasing supply has been a shortage of workers, homebuilders said.
Persons: Carl Harris, , Harris, — he’s, Mike Forsum, Freddie Mac, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, , Robert Dietz, It’s, Dietz, Sheryl Palmer, homebuilder Taylor Morrison, homebuilders, we’ve, Palmer, Forsum, “ I’m, Homebuilders, Taylor Morrison, They’ve, that’s, ” Harris, “ It’s Organizations: National Association of Home Builders, Landsea, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Wichita , Kansas, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Raleigh , North Carolina, Dallas, , Sacramento , California, Texas, Fort Worth , Texas, Phoenix, Buckeye, Orlando , Florida, In Wichita
Men have been steadily dropping out of the workforce, especially men ages 25 to 54, who are considered to be in their prime working years. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate for prime-age working men was 3.4% in August 2024. But about 10.5% of men in their prime working years, or roughly 6.8 million men nationwide, are neither working nor looking for employment, compared with just 2.5% in 1954. A study by the Pew Research Center found that men who are not college-educated leave the workforce at higher rates than men who are. Watch the video above to find out why men are increasingly leaving the workforce.
Persons: Nicholas Eberstadt, Jeff Strohl, Carol Graham, you've Organizations: U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Enterprise Institute . Education, Center, Education, Workforce, Georgetown University, Pew Research Center, Brookings Institution
The Northeast is the ancestral home of footwear manufacturing in the US, where New Balance still assembles more than 4 million pairs of sneakers each year. But that could soon change with a plan for a $125 million development campus called Made in Old Town. At the federal level, the US government has offered billions in subsidies to support manufacturing, mostly targeting the auto, semiconductor, and solar industries. With the Made in Old Town project, the aim is to generate about 6,000 full-time jobs in Portland by as soon as 2028. A long way to goThe Made in Old Town project is still in its early stages, having raised $15 million of its $125 million goal.
Persons: Portland's, Hilos, , Keen, Elias Stahl, Portland's Hilos, Stahl, they're, Eric Liedtke, Liedtke, They've, Alo, Armour, Tina Kotek, Noel Kinder, Nike's, Kinder Organizations: Technology Association of Oregon, Chain Management, Service, Nike, Adidas, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Factory, Brands, Columbia, Midwest ., Gov Locations: Old Town, Portland , Oregon, Columbia, Portland's Old, Portland, Vietnam, China, Asia, Old, Germany, North America, Atlanta, Midwest
Read previewThe nation's central bank has finally cut interest rates for the first time in over four years. AdvertisementStill, Hamrick said within a day of the Fed's rate cuts, banks will likely adjust their prime lending rates, which will be noticed in credit-card rates "immediately." The Fed rate cuts indirectly affect mortgages, which are generally based on other interest rates that are loosely tied to the Fed funds rate. And when it comes to businesses, rate cuts will have a positive impact on their operations, making it cheaper to take out loans. Are you planning to make any big purchases now that the Fed has cut interest rates?
Persons: , Mark Hamrick, Erica Groshen, Michele Raneri, Raneri, Hamrick, Elizabeth Renter, Renter Organizations: Service, Federal, Market Committee, Democratic, Fed, Business, Cornell University, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Financial, TransUnion, asheffey
Trump won the presidency in 2016 by stunning Democrat Hillary Clinton to win all three states by a combined margin of about 80,000 votes. But, as in other states, Democrats have been concerned about the risk of depressed turnout and some gains for Trump among Black voters in Philadelphia. Eight years later, the two states split again, when Roosevelt comfortably won Pennsylvania and Michigan narrowly went to Republican Wendell Willkie. This trio of states has arguably become the most consistent tipping point in American politics. In the nine elections since 1920 when they split their vote, the candidate who carried two of these three states won seven times.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump –, Trump, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Harris, Bob Shrum, Shrum, Tad Devine, , Biden, PRRI, William Frey, Tim Marema, don’t, Mason, Dixon, Barack Obama, Tony Evers, Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, Republican Sen, Ron Johnson, Dane County, Ben Wikler, Pete Giangreco, , You’ve, That’s, Gene Ulm, Roe, Wade, Whitmer, Branden Snyder, It’s, Clinton, Dante Chinni, White, ” Chinni, they’ve, They’ve, Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini, Ruffini, “ I’m, ” Ruffini, Geoff Garin, Michael Dukakis, Republican George H.W, Republican George H.W . Bush, James Buchanan, John C, Franklin D, Roosevelt, Herbert Hoover, Republican Wendell Willkie, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Theodore Roosevelt’s, Al Gore, John Kerry, Republican Thomas Dewey, Hubert Humphrey, Garin Organizations: CNN, White House, Democratic, Michigan, Wisconsin, AdImpact, Trump, Center, University of Southern, , Republicans, Survey, Blacks, of Labor Statistics, Public Religion Research, Whites, GOP, Brookings Metro, for Rural, doesn’t, Keystone State, Republican, Center for Rural, Democrats, Biden, Black, White, Wisconsin , Michigan Democrats, Detroit, Electoral, American Communities Project, , Democrat, Pennsylvania, Republican Party Locations: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina , Arizona, Nevada, Flint , Michigan, University of Southern California, California , New York, Illinois, Texas, Florida, Ohio, . Michigan, Wisconsin’s, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Detroit, Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington, Madison, Dane, Dane County, Eau Claire, Appleton, La Crosse, Outagamie, Winnebago, Green Bay, Green, Chicago, Scranton, Wilkes, Barre, ” Michigan, “ Michigan, Gaza, Wisconsin , Michigan, United States, “ Pennsylvania, Ulm, Pittsburgh, Butler , Pennsylvania, Republican George H.W ., Fremont, North Carolina, Michigan , Pennsylvania,
Go to newsletter preferencesSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementAccording to a Harris poll from September 2023, about 45% of adults aged 18 to 29 were still living with their parents. However, the "Oracle of Wall Street" economist — so known for correctly predicting the 2008 crisis — did not foresee a recession, given that stronger cohorts would continue to power the economy. Aside from Gen Z and millennial consumers, top-earners are also helping keep the US economy afloat, Whitney noted. Those raking in over $150,000 are still active in the economy, though buying has shifted toward essentials over discretionary products.
Persons: , Meredith Whitney —, Harris, Whitney, McDonald's, Gen Z Organizations: Service, Financial Times, Business, Whitney, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dollar
Stocks are set to climb higher for at least the next few weeks, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. Lee pointed to the Fed's policy meeting, with markets expecting a rate cut on Wednesday. A Fed rate cut will be bullish for stocks, regardless of its size, he told CNBC. AdvertisementWall Street has been anticipating rate cuts for months, especially as the economy has shown some weakness stemming from tighter financial conditions. However, stocks should move higher regardless of the size of the rate cut, Lee said, so long as central bankers assure markets that more cuts are coming.
Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, , Powell Organizations: CNBC, Service, Bureau of Labor, New York Fed
Despite not having a high school diploma or college degree, he started multiple successful businesses that allowed him to financially support his family. During her senior year of high school, Wakeham was struggling to decide on her post-graduation route. US Census Bureau data found the enrollment rate of high school graduates at 61.4% in October 2023 was slightly down from 62% in 2022. Indeed, even as some Gen Zers don't think college is the best path for them, recent data has shown that college continues to provide long-lasting benefits when it comes to careers and earnings. Some high schools have shifted to place a greater emphasis on alternative routes since the pandemic.
Persons: LeLaina Wakeham, Wakeham, didn't, Zers, Zach Hyrnowski, Hyrnowski, we've, Hrynowski, that's, Hannah Maruyama, Maruyama, Jared Polis, — she's Organizations: Service, Business, Gallup, Walton Family Foundation, Colorado Gov, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Reinventing Public Education, roundtables Locations: Mexico, New England
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementThe exodus is mainly being driven by higher housing costs, a higher cost of living, and souring attitudes toward the influx of people who moved to Florida in recent years. Property insurance costs in the state are rising at the fastest pace in 20 years, according to Capital Economics. According to Cindy, her home insurance costs around $8,000 a year. The cost of living has also risen, in part due to rising housing costs and more people living in the city.
Persons: , who's, Cindy, isn't, Rafael Corrales, Corrales, Kevin, hadn't, it's, Bill McBride, McBride, That's, It's, Darryl Fairweather, Redfin, Fairweather Organizations: Service, Business, Tampa —, Capital Economics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington DC, Florida Department of Law, Sunshine State Locations: Florida, Sunshine, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, South Florida, Miami, St, Pete, Seattle, New York, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach, Petersburg, Clearwater, Florida's
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Hotter-than-expected core, againThe U.S. producer price index, which measures the prices producers receive before retailers sell goods and services to consumers, rose 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, like the consumer price index, core PPI came in 10 basis points higher than expected. But investors are ignoring two big risks to the market, said a chief investment officer of a wealth management firm.
Persons: Hong, Dow Jones, Sheila Kahyaoglu, Safra Catz, Bond Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Nikkei, U.S ., Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, Boeing, Jefferies, Oracle, Amazon, Google, Microsoft Locations: Asia, Pacific, U.S, Seattle, Oregon
Wholesale prices rose in August about in line with expectations, the final inflation data point as the Federal Reserve gets set to lower interest rates. The core increase was the same when excluding trade services. On a 12-month basis, headline PPI rose 1.7%. On the PPI measure, services prices pushed much of the gain, with a 0.4% monthly increase driven by a rise in services less trade, transportation and warehousing. The release comes a day after the BLS reported that consumer prices rose 0.2% on the month in line with expectations.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, PPI, Labor Department, BLS
Wholesale inflation slowed again last month
  + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +1 min
CNN —US producer prices continued to cool overall in August, showing that inflation across the economy is improving. But a closely watched measure of underlying inflation remained stubbornly elevated, reflecting the bumpiness in reining in price hikes. August’s monthly increase was driven by a 0.4% gain on the services side, as goods prices were unchanged, thanks in part to falling energy prices. Economists had expected that prices would increase 0.2% on a monthly basis and 1.8% annually, according to FactSet estimates. Excluding the more volatile categories of food and energy, core PPI advanced 0.3% from July, countering a 0.2% decline seen the month before.
Persons: Price Organizations: CNN, of Labor Statistics, PPI, Federal Reserve Locations: US, reining
CNBC Daily Open: Looking past sticky core inflation
  + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The S&P 500 climbed 1.07%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.31% and the Nasdaq Composite shot up 2.17%. Core inflation, to which the Fed pays more attention because it more accurately reflects price movements, came in a bit higher than expected for the month. Core inflation was higher than the headline number because food and energy prices are stripped out from the former.
Persons: Spencer Platt, , Jeff Cox, Pia Singh, Lisa Kailai Han Organizations: Getty, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Fed, of Labor Statistics, Nvidia, Reuters, U.S . House Locations: Brooklyn, New York City, U.S, Saudi Arabia
Mortgage rates have dropped nearly 20 basis points this week, with 30-year rates now near 5.7%, according to Zillow data. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. Current 30-Year Mortgage RatesAverage 30-year mortgage rates have inched down this week and are now hovering near 5.7%, according to Zillow data. Mortgage rates are determined by a variety of different factors, including larger economic trends, Federal Reserve policy, your state's current mortgage rates, the type of loan you're getting, and your personal financial profile. Because markets are already anticipating that the Fed will lower rates, mortgage rates might not drop much in response to a Fed rate cut.
Persons: you'll, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Reserve, of Labor Statistics, Fed, Zillow Locations: Chevron
Social Security recipients can expect next year's annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) to be the lowest since 2021, following cooler inflation readings in July and August. The Social Security Administration is expected to announce the official cost-of-living adjustment for 2025 on Oct. 10. Much of the political debate about Social Security remains focused on reforming — and ultimately paring back — the entire program. But earlier this year, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania introduced the Boosting Benefits and COLAs for Seniors Act, designed to increase Social Security benefits at a rate "that actually reflects the costs seniors face." "The Boosting Benefits and COLAs for Seniors Act would help seniors contend with rising costs and ensure that Social Security remains a lifeline for all who need it.”
Persons: ” Mary Johnson, Johnson, Democratic Sen, Bob Casey of, ” Casey, Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Social, Senior Citizens League, Social Security, Medicare, Trustees, Social Security Administration, League, Democratic, Seniors, Bureau of Labor Statistics, , Social Security, Security Locations: Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania
And while Trump tried to tie Harris to President Joe Biden, he learned that she is a much tougher rival. While Trump tried to re-create the conditions of June’s fateful debate stage matchup, Harris reminded him, “You’re not running against Joe Biden. Harris tried to get under Trump’s skin, baiting him into a defensive posture that prevented him from attacking her weaknesses. And when Trump scolded Harris’ attempt to interrupt him, some allies lamented that he lost control at a key moment. Three Republican sources told NBC News after the debate that Trump came off as “angry” in that moment.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump’s, Francine churns, Harris, Donald Trump, Trump, Joe Biden, “ You’re, You’re, ” Harris, Harris ’, ” Trump, Louisiana Hurricane Francine, Joe Wilson of, , Republican Kelly Ayotte, Joyce Craig, Mauricio Pochettino, Dave Grohl, Hill, Jesse Dittmar, James Earl Jones ’, Darth Vader, Jones, Char Adams, — Joy Y, Wang, Dermatologists, Elizabeth Robinson Organizations: Trump, Republican, NBC News, Federal, Labor Statistics, Louisiana Hurricane, Public, Novo Nordisk, Foo Fighters, Police, Miami Dolphins, NBC Locations: Louisiana, Ohio, New Orleans, Mississippi, Novo, semaglutide, Wegovy, Joe Wilson of South Carolina, Washington, ” New Hampshire, Ukraine, Russia
The pace of inflation likely moderated again in August — further relief for beleaguered consumers still smarting from pandemic-era price shocks. Though price growth has largely returned to the Federal Reserve's official 2% target, the sting of rapid price increases over the past four years lingers for many consumers. The latest inflation report is likely to cement a 0.25% cut in the Federal Reserve's key interest rate, currently at about 5.3%, later this month. But experts say it will take some time for consumers to feel the impact of the lower interest rate — and the relatively small size of the cut means borrowing costs will still be somewhat elevated. While the Fed is now widely expected to cut interest rates, a cut of just 0.25% may not be enough to stave off that scenario.
Persons: , There's, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Zillow, Paul, ” Marina Walsh, ” Walsh, Torsten Slok, Slok, Sophia Kearney, Jerome Powell's, Kearney, Lederman Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve's, Democratic, Labor Statistics, Princeton, , Mortgage Bankers Association, Apollo Global Management, FHN, NBC News, Fed Locations: U.S, New York, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, St, Las Vegas, Phoenix
You can opt-out at any time by visiting our Preferences page or by clicking "unsubscribe" at the bottom of the email. The consumer price index, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increased 2.5% over the year from August 2023 to this past August, matching the forecast of 2.5% and below July's 2.9% rate. The new data will factor into the Federal Open Market Committee's interest-rate decision next week, with the hot core figure decreasing the odds of a jumbo 50-basis-point cut. Softening but still relatively strong labor market data will also weigh on the Fed's decision. "If that test is met, a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September."
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business, Federal
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