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Factbox: Key players in Turkey's election campaign
  + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Turkey's longest-serving leader logged more than a dozen election victories and survived an attempted coup in 2016. CHP LEADER KEMAL KILICDAROGLUKilicdaroglu, 74, head of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), was named the six-party opposition alliance's presidential candidate in March. HOMELAND PARTY LEADER MUHARREM INCEFormer physics teacher and headmaster Muharrem Ince, 58, is seen as having little chance of becoming president. OPPOSITION FIGURES:IYI PARTY LEADER MERAL AKSENERFormer interior minister Meral Aksener, 66, leads the second-largest party in the opposition alliance, the centrist and nationalist IYI Party. ANKARA MAYOR MANSUR YAVASNationalist politician and lawyer Mansur Yavas, 67, defeated the AKP's Ankara mayoral candidate 2019 as the CHP candidate backed by an opposition alliance.
Reuters interviews with Kar and a dozen other voters in Antakya reflected anger over what some viewed as a slow initial government response to the disaster. The voices are a small snapshot of Antakya and the wider area of southern Turkey hit by the earthquake, a region home to nine million voters and traditionally an Erdogan stronghold. Only 4.3% of voters viewed the quake as Turkey's biggest problem last month, with most more concerned by an economy racked by rampant inflation. Nearby, excavators resound as they demolish some of the 80-90% of buildings estimated to have suffered quake damage. The opposing sides present very different narratives about Erdogan and his government's response to the disaster.
The strengthening ties between Erdogan and Putin have caused jitters in the West, with some watching the upcoming elections with anticipation of a possible Erdogan exit. That makes Russia among Turkey’s biggest trade partners. The European Union, as a bloc, however remains Turkey’s largest trade partner, with bilateral trade reaching around $219 billion, according to the European Commission. But while relations with the EU might improve if the opposition wins, the road may be longer and more challenging with the US, experts say. “When we mention Turkey’s relationship with the West… we sometimes take both ends of the Atlantic (as one),” Isci said.
But a cost-of-living crisis sparked by Erdogan's unorthodox economic programme over the past 1-1/2 years has eroded his popularity, posing the biggest electoral challenge to his 20-year hold on power. The parliamentary race remains on a razor edge, with the opposition seen potentially clinching a narrow majority. Food prices surged 54% year-on-year in April, with headline inflation dropping to 43.7% after peaking in October at 85.5%, the highest under Erdogan's rule. It began to surge after a currency crisis in late 2021, sparked by a series of interest rate cuts, in line with Erdogan's unorthodox views. But many AKP voters still believe only Erdogan can fix the economy, or blame other factors for its current state.
Efe is one of more than 6 million first-time voters expected to cast ballots in the May 14 election. 'ANGRY AND HOPELESS'Erdogan's share of the vote among young and first-time voters is forecast to be lower than among other age groups, said Erman Bakirci from pollster Konda Arastirma. Describing young voters as a "very angry and hopeless" segment of Turkey's 85 million people, Bakirci said they would be crucial to the result because they are such a large block. "They see via internet and social media what their peers in Europe are doing and what opportunities they have," Bakirci said. Erdogan, who oversaw an economic boom in his first several years in power, has traditionally drawn support from Turkey's conservative voters in Turkey's Anatolian Islamic heartlands.
The May 14 vote, which lands during the Turkish Republic's centenary year, is Erdogan's biggest test yet. At the same time, a global reversal in market liquidity left Turkey and other emerging markets starved for funding. But the economic crisis was damaging. This trend accelerated in 2013, wiping out big gains made in 2006-2010 during Erdogan's first decade in charge. "If Erdogan wins the election and continues his economic policy it will come to a complete crash at one point.
What's at stake in Turkey's landmark elections?
  + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Modern Turkey's longest-serving leader, Erdogan has championed religious piety and low interest rates at home while asserting Turkish influence in the region and loosening the NATO member's ties with the West. The election takes place three months after earthquakes in southeast Turkey killed more than 50,000 people. WHAT'S AT STAKE FOR TURKEY ... The opposition has echoed Erdogan's plans to return some refugees to Syria, but neither has set out how that could safely take place. How the opposition will garner support among the Kurdish voters, accounting for 15% of the electorate, remains key.
Explainer: What's at stake in Turkey's landmark elections?
  + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The election takes place three months after earthquakes in southeast Turkey killed more than 50,000 people. WHAT'S AT STAKE FOR TURKEY ... They would also dismantle his executive presidency in favour of the previous parliamentary system, and send back Syrian refugees. The opposition has echoed Erdogan's plans to return some refugees to Syria, but neither has set out how that could safely take place. How the opposition will garner support among the Kurdish voters, accounting for 15% of the electorate, remains key.
ANKARA, May 8 (Reuters) - Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan accused the opposition on Monday of provoking disorder and siding with terrorists, without providing evidence, in a fiery speech days before close and increasingly fractious elections. Opinion polls suggest Erdogan faces the biggest electoral challenge of his career in presidential and parliamentary votes due on May 14. The following day, on the other side of Turkey during a rally in the western town of Edirne, Erdogan accused the opposition of being "pro-LGBT" and "siding with terrorists". "They (the opposition) are trying to defame our cities shamelessly by making a scene with their own provocations," Erdogan said, without making direct reference to the events in Erzurum. Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu also accused the opposition of inciting the violence in Erzurum.
[1/2] Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan addresses his supporters during a rally ahead of the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections, in Izmir, Turkey April 29, 2023. As he seeks to shore up his appeal among conservative voters, Erdogan has also spoken against homosexuality, describing LGBT rights as a "deviant" concept he would fight. 'BUILDING TURKEY TOGETHER'Polls suggest voting could go to a second round and some show Erdogan trailing. "I swear, Erdogan can solve it with a flick of his wrist," she said at a market in central Istanbul. The interventions won few allies, however, and faced with a struggling economy the countdown to the election, Erdogan sought rapprochement with rivals across the region.
Erdogan calls opposition 'pro-LGBT' at election rally
  + stars: | 2023-05-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
ANKARA, May 7 (Reuters) - Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan accused the opposition of being "pro-LGBT" at a rally in Istanbul on Sunday, as he stepped up his rhetoric against his opponents a week before what is expected to be a tight election. Elsewhere, protesters threw stones at Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a member of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), during an election rally in the eastern city of Erzurum, a stronghold of Erdogan's AK Party (AKP). On Sunday, he also attacked his key election rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who heads the main opposition alliance. The opposition has previously denounced claims by Erdogan linking them to terrorists as divisive and dangerous campaign rhetoric. In the 2018 presidential election Erdogan won 72% of votes in Erzurum.
I know the cost of living and the hopelessness of young people," Kilicdaroglu told a rally last week. Even if he prevails, Kilicdaroglu faces challenges keeping an opposition alliance including nationalists, Islamists, secularists and liberals united. Many wonder whether Kilicdaroglu can defeat Erdogan, the country's longest-serving leader, whose campaigning charisma has helped deliver more than a dozen election victories. HEALING OLD WOUNDSBefore entering politics, Kilicdaroglu worked in the finance ministry and then chaired Turkey's Social Insurance Institution for most of the 1990s. "I have been boycotting the elections since 2018 but I will vote for Kemal Kilicdaroglu this time.
It would ensure the central bank's independence and roll back measures such as allowing the cabinet to select its governor. FOREIGN POLICYIt would adopt the slogan of "Peace at Home, Peace in the World" as the cornerstone of Turkey's foreign policy. Judges' willingness to abide by Constitutional Court and European Court of Human Rights rulings would be considered when evaluating promotions. Measures would be taken to ensure courts quickly implement rulings by the two high courts. It would ensure that pre-trial detentions are the exception, a measure that critics say is abused under Erdogan's rule.
I know the cost of living and the hopelessness of young people," Kilicdaroglu told a rally last week. Many wonder whether Kilicdaroglu can defeat Erdogan, the country's longest-serving leader, whose campaigning charisma has helped deliver more than a dozen election victories. The opposition has stressed that Erdogan's drive to slash interest rates set off the inflationary crisis that devastated household budgets. HEALING OLD WOUNDSBefore entering politics, Kilicdaroglu worked in the finance ministry and then chaired Turkey's Social Insurance Institution for most of the 1990s. "I have been boycotting the elections since 2018 but I will vote for Kemal Kilicdaroglu this time.
And even if Kilicdaroglu wins the election, some analysts say Erdogan may not hand over power to his successor without a struggle. Here’s what you need to know about the vote that could become a pivotal moment in Turkey’s modern history:How Turkey’s elections workTurkey holds elections every five years. Parliamentary elections take place at the same time as the presidential elections. Four candidates are running for this year’s presidential election. CHP Istanbul mayor candidate Ekrem Imamoglu then went on to win the election re-run, dealing a blow to Erdogan.
CNN —Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan largely canceled two days of campaigning as crucial elections loom after he fell ill during a live televised interview. His tweet included social media images, of which some suggested that Erdogan was critically ill in hospital having suffered a myocardial infarction. Erdogan, 69, is hoping to extend his power well into a third decade but it is far from a political certainty. Kilicdaroglu, who represents the six-party Nation Alliance opposition bloc, is the strongest contender to run against Erdogan in years. Kurds are the biggest minority in Turkey, making up between 15% and 20% of the population, according to Minority Rights Group International.
[1/3] Turkish citizens living in Germany start casting their ballots at Turkey?s diplomatic missions for the May 14 parliamentary and presidential election, in Munich, Germany, April 27, 2023. REUTERS/Ayhan UyanikMUNICH, April 27 (Reuters) - Turkish citizens based in Germany began voting on Thursday in Turkey's presidential and parliamentary elections, which represent the biggest electoral challenge for President Tayyip Erdogan, who lags in opinion polls, in two decades in power. Polling stations have also been set up in Berlin, Frankfurt, Cologne and other towns and cities, according to Turkey's High Election Board. Germany's Turkish diaspora comprises around 2.3 million people, according to the Turkish Community in Germany. Turkish voters in Germany have until May 9 to submit ballots.
Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Presidential Press Office/Handout via REUTERSANKARA, April 20 (Reuters) - President Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday flicked the switch on Turkey's first delivery of natural gas to an onshore plant from a reserve discovered in the Black Sea, and promised to provide free natural gas for households before May 14 elections. "We will provide free natural gas for household consumption up to 25 cubic meters monthly for one year," Erdogan said at the inauguration of an onshore natural gas port in the northern province of Zonguldak. Limitless natural gas for all household consumption will be free for the next month, Erdogan said. 10 million cubic metres of gas per day in Turkey's Black Sea gas fields will be produced initially, Erdogan said. Production will be increased to 40 million cubic metres of gas per day in the coming period, he said.
[1/4] Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, accompanied by his wife Emine Erdogan, greets the audience during a meeting of his ruling AK Party to announce the party's election manifesto ahead of the May 14 elections, in Ankara, Turkey April 11, 2023. Erdogan is facing the biggest political challenge since his AK Party (AKP) came to power in 2002, with polls showing support sagging in recent years after unorthodox economic policies hobbled the lira currency and sent inflation surging. Erdogan said last week a team was working on strengthening economic policies under the coordination of former economic tsar Mehmet Simsek, who is well respected by international investors. In the presidential election next month, Erdogan will be up against the main opposition alliance candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. On foreign policy, Erdogan said the AKP would continue normalizing relations in the region and aim to build an "axis of Turkey".
"The fundamental consequence of Ince's (candidacy) is sending the elections to a second round," Panoramatr research director Osman Sert told Reuters. "But even if there is such a meltdown it would not prevent the election going to a second round," Sert said. POLITICAL STABILITYIf no presidential candidate gets more than 50% in the May 14 vote, the top two would compete in a second round two weeks later. Data from closely-watched pollster Metropoll showed Ince and undecided voters would determine the presidential vote, its head Ozer Sencar said. Among voters opposed to Erdogan, some voice dissatisfaction with the diverse main opposition alliance, partly as it includes parties led by former Erdogan allies and an Islamist party.
"It is not clear whether some citizens are alive or dead in the earthquake zone. Erdogan's AK Party has said it is committed to a free and fair election that respects the will of the people. BALLOT BOX SECURITYOpposition parties and non-governmental organisations say the exodus of more than 3 million people from the disaster zone poses extra concerns. While some 300,000 to 500,000 of them were thought to have changed addresses, many of those who had left the disaster zone had not, added Tiryaki. For Yigit, the earthquake and what he sees as the government's slow response to the disaster weighs on him as he decides how to vote.
Separately, in a televised interview on Wednesday, Erdogan downplayed the significance of the meeting with Simsek, saying such meetings were ordinary. A senior government official told Reuters the AKP was somewhat divided with some members opposed to Simsek's return, and described the outcome of the Erdogan meeting as "undesirable". The party may now need to revise its economic platform ahead of the election campaign, he added. The AKP declined to comment on whether it was revising its economic strategy ahead of the vote. Two recent polls by MAK and Turkiye Raporu show the opposition presidential challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu between 4 and 9 percentage points ahead of Erdogan.
Video footage from a drone flying down a street in Antakya’s Old City, which is covered in rubble and surrounded by collapsed buildings. Called Saray Street by locals, this stretch was once lined with more than 70 shops, restaurants and other businesses. The destruction on Saray Street is a fraction of all that was lost in Old City. Video clip of Saray Street before the quakes, showing stores and patrons during the holiday season. Damaged or destroyed historic or cultural landmark Map showing the boundaries of Old City and labeling cultural landmarks that were damaged or destroyed.
ANKARA, March 22 (Reuters) - Turkey's pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) and its allies will not field a presidential candidate in May, its co-leader said on Wednesday, raising the prospect of the opposition uniting against President Tayyip Erdogan's re-election bid. Speaking at a news conference, Pervin Buldan did not openly say whether her alliance would support opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, after they had met on Monday. "For these reasons, we are sharing with the public that we will not field a candidate in presidential elections." Erdogan is facing the biggest challenge to his rule in his more than two decades of leading Turkey. Recent polls show him trailing Kilicdaroglu, the candidate of the opposition alliance of six parties.
The HDP, parliament's third-biggest party, wants the opposition to back demands for Kurdish rights and other issues. The Kurdish party held talks with Kilicdaroglu on Monday and is expected to announce this week whether it will back him. HDP lawmaker Imam Tascier said Kilicdaroglu had acknowledged the "Kurdish problem", terms reminiscent of language used by Erdogan in earlier years when he was seeking Kurdish support. Now, he said, Erdogan "pushed freedoms, democracy, human rights and the Kurdish problem away with the back of his hand". Yet, legal challenges could derail the role of HDP, which also won almost 12% of the national vote in 2018.
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