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Various indicators are pointing to a labor market that, if not in outright deterioration, is at least slowing. "Declines of this magnitude tend to occur when the economy is heading into recession and when the unemployment rate is on the ascent," he said. The unemployment rate almost always either heads up or down, with little evidence of extended plateaus. The current momentum is up, though the consensus estimate for August is that the unemployment rate will tick down to 4.2%, according to FactSet. "When you talk to firms ... it doesn't look like the labor market is not healthy," former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said Tuesday on CNBC.
Persons: Troy Ludtka, Jerome Powell, Beth Ann Bovino, Mary Daly, Nonfarm, Nikko, Loretta Mester, hasn't Organizations: Federal, Nikko Securities, Conference Board, Board, Labor Department, San Francisco Fed, Bloomberg News, Cleveland Fed, CNBC Locations: U.S
Traders continued to price in a greater likelihood that the Fed will kick off what is expected to be a protracted easing campaign in September with a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis point, reduction. "My base-case scenario is that we are on a journey of 25 basis point cuts, probably for the next eight meetings, a couple hundred basis points cumulative," economist Paul McCulley said on CNBC's " Squawk on the Street ." "But if we see weaker growth, and particularly weaker jobs, then I think we could have a bit of front-loading and start the process with 50 basis point cuts." That, among other vows to support the economy now that inflation has waned, provided some indication that a 50 basis point move is at least on the table. Markets expect the central bank to knock off a full percentage point this year and at least that much in 2025.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Paul McCulley, Powell, Joseph LaVorgna, you've, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Rick Rieder, Goolsbee Organizations: Federal, Traders, CME, Cornell, Georgetown, Fed, Nikko Securities, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Locations: Powell's, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Atlanta, Chicago
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers his keynote speech Friday morning at the central bank's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Powell was widely expected to chart a path forward that includes interest rate reductions as the pace of inflation eases and concerns increase about the durability of the U.S. economic expansion. In previous years, he has used Jackson Hole to lay out significant policy initiatives and intentions. Markets widely expect the Fed to begin lowering rates in September and continue with a series of cuts through at least 2025. Read more:Fed minutes point to 'likely' rate cut coming in SeptemberFed survey shows lows in employment, worries about finding work and dissatisfaction with payPhiladelphia Fed President Harker advocates for interest rate cut in SeptemberSubscribe to CNBC on YouTube.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Jackson, Read, Harker Organizations: Philadelphia, CNBC, YouTube Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell laid the groundwork Friday for interest rate cuts ahead, though he declined to provide exact indications on timing or extent. "The time has come for policy to adjust," the central bank leader said in his much-awaited keynote address at the Fed's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. "The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks." The labor market is no longer overheated, and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic," Powell said. He vowed that "we will do everything we can" to make sure the labor market says strong and progress on inflation continues.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Powell, Stocks, Paul McCulley Organizations: Traders Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming
The U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Wall Street had been waiting for the revisions numbers, with many economists expecting a sizeable reduction in the originally reported figures. "The labor market appears weaker than originally reported," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. "A deteriorating labor market will allow the Fed to highlight both sides of the dual mandate and investors should expect the Fed to prepare markets for a cut at the September meeting." Nonfarm payroll jobs totaled 158.7 million through July, an increase of 1.6% from the same month in 2023.
Persons: Jeffrey Roach, Jared Bernstein, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell Organizations: Labor Department, of Labor Statistics, BLS, Federal Reserve, LPL, Goldman Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
The thrice-yearly measure of labor activity, confidence and satisfaction reflected growing concern in July about job security and an increase in those expecting to work past typical retirement age. Similarly, those who expected to become unemployed rose to 4.4%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from a year ago and the highest in the survey's history. On wages, satisfaction with current compensation dropped to 56.7%, down more than 3 percentage points from the same period in 2023. Finally, the expected likelihood of working past age 62 nudged up to 48.3% of respondents and increased to 34.2% of those saying they expect to work past 67, an increase of more than 2 percentage points. Following their most recent meeting, Fed officials described job growth as having "moderated."
Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, Workers Locations: U.S, nonfarm
We have to remember, the Fed made one mistake, the transitory" call on inflation, said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. Specifically, the Fed is faced with how quickly and aggressively it should respond now that the inflation rate is waning . "Jay Powell says they don't want to be data point dependent, and I think that makes sense. I don't think you have signs of weakness in the economy. You don't have signs of inflation being controlled, and you don't have any signal for the Fed to switch focus."
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Jackson, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Richard Clarida, nonfarm payrolls, Powell, Jay Powell, Clarida, we'll, Komal, Kumar, He's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, LPL, CNBC, Sri, Kumar Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming
watch nowConsumer spending held up even better than expected in July as inflation pressures showed more signs of easing, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Advanced retail sales accelerated 1% on the month, according to numbers that are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation. Excluding auto-related items, sales increased 0.4%, also better than the 0.1% forecast. Miscellaneous retailers saw a plunge of 2.5% while gas stations saw receipts climb just 0.1% and clothing stores were down 0.1%. There was one counterpoint to that in another data release Thursday in which the Labor Department said import prices increased 0.1% in July, slightly ahead of the forecast for no change.
Persons: Dow Jones, Richard de Chazal, William Blair Organizations: Commerce Department, Stock, Labor Department
CNBC Daily Open: Wall Street surges; Starbucks ousts CEO
  + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Economic uncertainty Home Depot exceeded quarterly expectations but lowered its full-year sales outlook , citing weak demand due to high interest rates and consumer uncertainty. Get the CNBC Daily Open report in your inbox every morning and keep up to date with the markets wherever you are. The baristas have to be energised, clearly they've had some union problems, clearly they've had a lot of new products that haven't worked," Palmer told CNBC "Squawk on the Street." Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail told CNBC, "Customers aren't just deferring because of higher financing costs.
Persons: Richard McPhail, Laxman Narasimhan, Brian Niccol, Narasimhan, Mellody Hobson, Narasimhan —, Niccol, David Palmer, they've, haven't, Palmer, Sarat Sethi, CNBC's, Sethi, , Sarah Min, Amelia Lucas, Brian Evans, Samantha Subin, Jennifer Elias, Jeff Cox, Spencer Kimball Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Jefferies, Google, Apple, Gemini, Evercore ISI, Depot, Douglas, Lane & Associates, McDonald's, Starbucks, Walmart Locations: New York City, China
Annual inflation rate slows to 2.9% in July, lowest since 2021
  + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of prices for goods and services, increased 0.2% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.9%. Excluding food and energy, core CPI came in at a 0.2% monthly increase and a 3.2% annual rate, meeting expectations. The annual rate is the lowest since March 2021, while the core is the lowest since April 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report. A 0.4% increase in shelter costs was responsible for 90% of the all-items inflation increase. Food prices increased 0.2% while energy was flat.
Persons: Joe Raedle, Dow Jones Organizations: Getty, Labor Department, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Miami , Florida
watch nowThe PPI report, seen as a gauge of wholesale inflation, showed prices up just 0.2% in July and about 2.2% from a year ago. Still, investors are looking for the Fed at its September meeting to start cutting interest rates, considering that inflation is weakening and so is the labor market. Another benign inflation report "makes the Fed completely comfortable that they can shift their focus away from inflation and toward labor," said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PGIM Fixed Income. There are cracks forming in the labor market backdrop." "I'm as curious about [Wednesday's] inflation report as anyone else, but I think it would take a real outlier to change the Fed's tune from 1) shifting to labor as its focus, and 2) seriously thinking about cutting in September," Porcelli said.
Persons: Jim Baird, Plante, Baird, Dow Jones, there's, Tom Porcelli, Porcelli Organizations: Walmart, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Financial Advisors, PPI, Fed, Traders
A key measure of wholesale inflation rose less than expected in July, opening the door further for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates. Excluding volatile food and energy components, core PPI was flat. A further core measure that also excludes trade services showed an increase of 0.3%. Trade services prices fell 1.3% while margins for machinery and vehicles wholesaling tumbled 4.1%. An increase of 2.3% in portfolio management offset some of the decline in services prices.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, BLS, Trade Locations: Brooklyn, New York City
The latest views from the monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations indicate that respondents see inflation staying elevated over the next year but then receding in the next couple of years after that. In fact, the three-year portion of the survey showed consumers expecting inflation at just 2.3%, down 0.6 percentage point from June and the lowest in the history of the survey, going back to June 2013. That's still a full percentage point away from the Fed's 2% goal but about one-third of where it was two years ago. While the medium-term outlook improved, inflation expectations on the one- and five-year horizons stood unchanged at 3% and 2.8% respectively. Respondents expect the price of gas to increase by 3.5% over the next year, 0.8 percentage point less than in June, and food to see a rise of 4.7%, which is 0.1 percentage point lower than a month ago.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: New York Federal, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Fed Locations: New
In just a few short days, markets have taken some of the urgency off the table for the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates. Earlier in the week, there were even some calls for an emergency intermeeting rate cut. At the least, markets figured the Fed was a near-certainty to reduce benchmark rates by at least a half percentage point. Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel has been one of the loudest voices for aggressive Fed action, calling Monday for an emergency cut . The Fed has been holding its benchmark rate in a range between 5.25%-5.50% for more than a year.
Persons: we've, Steven Wieting, Wieting, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Jerome Powell, Siegel, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reserve, Citi Wealth, Labor Department
Initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled less than expected last week, countering other signs that the labor market is weakening. Stock market futures, which had been negative earlier, turned sharply positive following the 8:30 a.m. In the previous week, claims had jumped by 14,000, adding to worries that layoffs are on the rise. "If you're looking for additional weakness in the labor market, you'll need to find it somewhere else." Concerns escalated over the state of the labor market following last Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, which showed an increase of just 114,000 in July.
Persons: Dow Jones, Beryl, Robert Frick, nonfarm Organizations: Labor Department, Navy Federal Credit Union, Federal Reserve Locations: Michigan, Texas, U.S
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on Thursday said that he should have a voice when the Federal Reserve makes its decisions on interest rates. Among the ideas being floated are forcing the Fed to consult with the president when making rate decisions. While in office from 2017 to 2021, President Trump was a fierce critic of Chair Jerome Powell, whom Trump appointed in 2018. The Fed hiked benchmark interest rates 5.25 percentage points from March 2022-July 2023 in an effort to bring down inflation. Trump generally favors lower interest rates and criticized the Fed frequently for raising in 2018.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Jerome Powell, Powell, Kamala Harris, Sen, Elizabeth Warren Organizations: Republican, Federal Reserve, Wall Street, White, Treasury Department, Federal, Fed, Trump, Democrat, CNBC Locations: Lago, Palm Beach , Florida, Florida
Wharton School Professor Jeremy Siegel no longer thinks it's vital for the Federal Reserve to implement an emergency interest rate reduction, but still wants policymakers to cut quickly and aggressively. "Obviously, I wanted to shake things up," Siegel said of his call for an intermeeting move. However, those expectations have been volatile as investors watch how quickly the Fed thinks it should ease policy. An emergency cut under these circumstances is "just not the way Jay Powell does things," Siegel said. "But Jay Powell has done things way too slow, certainly on the way up, and I just want to make sure he doesn't make the same mistakes on the way down."
Persons: Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Jerome Powell, Powell, Jay Powell Organizations: Wharton, Federal Reserve, CNBC Locations: WisdomTree
Disappointing economic data recently generated worries that the Fed missed an opportunity at its meeting last week to, if not cut rates outright, send a clearer signal that easing is on the way. In the past, the Fed has implemented just nine such cuts, and all have come amid extreme duress, according to Bank of America. Lacking a catalyst for an intermeeting cut, the Fed is nonetheless expected to cut rates almost as swiftly as it hiked from March 2022-July 2023. Why wait?”LaVorgna, though, isn’t convinced the Fed is in a life-or-death battle against recession. Still, any quakes in the data, such as Friday’s downside surprise to the nonfarm payrolls numbers, could ignite recession talk quickly.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Steven Blitz, , Andrew Hollenhorst, , ’ ”, Michael Gapen, Powell, Joseph LaVorgna, , “ They’ll, isn’t, Goldman Sachs, David Rosenberg Organizations: Federal Reserve, TS Lombard, Fed, Citigroup, Bank of America, Nikko Securities, Rosenberg Research Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Nikko
Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, during the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) economic policy conference in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, Feb. 16, 2024. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly on Monday said she expects that interest rates will be cut later this year but declined to provide a timetable or the extent to which the central bank will ease. At their meeting last week, Fed officials provided some hints that lower rates are coming but were short on specifics. Earlier in the day, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC that the central bank's "restrictive" rates policy doesn't make sense if the economy isn't overheating, which he said it is not. If there are trouble signs with the economy, Goolsbee said the Fed will "fix it."
Persons: Mary Daly, Daly, we've, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of San, National Association of Business Economics, San Francisco Federal, Market, Chicago Fed, CNBC Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Washington , DC, Hawaii
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on August 05, 2024, in New York City. "The market got a little bit ahead of itself in that run-up that it's had. Soon, traders began pricing in aggressive Fed rate cuts after expecting the central bank to do little the rest of the year. "This is the confluence of a very high market that has been soaring and riding on a lot of sentiment and emotion. For several months now, the momentum trade has been the successful trade," said Michael Farr, CEO of Farr, Miller & Washington.
Persons: Spencer Platt, Robert Teeter, it's, John Belton, , Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, Michael Farr, Farr Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, Federal Reserve, Silvercrest Asset Management, Dow Jones, Labor Department, Gabelli, Bank of Japan, Nvidia, Democratic, Republican, Miller & Washington Locations: New York City, cumulatively, Ukraine, U.S
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Monday vowed that the central bank would react to signs of weakness in the economy and indicated that interest rates could be too restrictive now. Policymakers have been focused on the "real" fed funds rate, which is the Fed's benchmark minus the inflation rate. As inflation declines, the real rate increases — unless the Fed chooses to cut. The real rate now is around 2.73%; Fed officials judge the long-term real rate to be closer to 0.5%. Traders expect the Fed to slice 1.25-1.5 percentage points off the funds rate by the end of the year, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, nonfarm, I'm, we're Organizations: Chicago Federal, Dow Jones, Fed, Labor Department, Traders
"A 50 basis point Fed cut in September is clearly justified as the labor market is now showing clear signs of softening," said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management. The firm, which has long been saying the Fed will need to cut aggressively this year, expects another 50 basis point cut in November by a 25 basis point cut move in December. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. The S & P 500 lost more than 2.5% and Treasury yields plummeted, sending the policy-sensitive 2-year note down more than a quarter percentage point to 3.91%. "It's very possible the Fed alters its inter-meeting communications on the balance of risks to remove all doubt [of] a September rate cut."
Persons: Yung, Yu Ma, David Donabedian, Preston Caldwell, David Rosenberg, Jerome Powell, Jamie Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Labor Statistics, BMO Wealth Management, Wall, Citigroup, CIBC Private Wealth, Morningstar, Rosenberg Research, Harris Financial
Job growth in the U.S. slowed much more than expected during July and the unemployment rate ticked higher, the Labor Department reported Friday. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.3%, its highest since October 2021. "Temperatures might be hot around the country, but there's no summer heatwave for the job market," said Becky Frankiewicz, president of the Manpower Group employment agency. From a sector standpoint, health care again led in job creation, adding 55,000 to payrolls. The labor force also contracted by 214,000, though the participation rate as a share of the working-age population actually edged higher to 62.7%.
Persons: Nonfarm payrolls, Dow Jones, Becky Frankiewicz Organizations: Labor Department, Stock, Manpower Group Locations: U.S
There was a perverse view this year that bad economic news was actually good news for the stock market, as the heat coming off the economy would give the Federal Reserve the greenlight to cut interest rates. This made some sense with inflation for the first time in a while becoming the primary market bogeyman over a slowing economy. Announced layoffs last month were the highest for any July in more than two decades, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported. Investors got what they thought they wanted, with the 10-year Treasury yield breaking below 4% for the first time since February. Even tech stocks found themselves in the red as they too, may be hurt more by a slowing economy, than their valuations are boosted by lower rates.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Chris Rupkey, Adam Crisafulli, Dow Jones, Yun Li, Jeff Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Institute for Supply Management, Investors, Dow Jones, Dow, JPMorgan Chase, Caterpillar, Vital Knowledge Locations: U.S
The U.S. labor market may have cooled some in July, as a gradual slowdown in the economy and Hurricane Beryl are expected to have taken some of the steam out of hiring. Still, even if the Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report for July, to be released Friday at 8:30 a.m. "You're seeing just modest on-the-margin weakness in the labor market that [isn't likely to] spiral out of control into a negative feedback loop." Citigroup projects an even lower number — 150,000 on payrolls and a tick higher in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. Should the unemployment rate keep climbing, it could raise fears that the so-called Sahm Rule is in danger of being triggered.
Persons: Hurricane Beryl, nonfarm, Mike Reynolds, Dow Jones, Goldman Sachs, Beryl Organizations: Amerant, Hurricane, Labor, Federal, department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Citigroup Locations: Florida, Sunrise , Florida, The U.S, department's, Texas, Houston
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