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ORLANDO, Florida, July 20 (Reuters) - Chinese stocks have traded at a discount to global peers for over a decade but have rarely been cheaper than they are now. The fact that U.S. equities are more expensive than Chinese stocks is nothing new. At minimum, investors will need clearer evidence of a turnaround in China's economic and market conditions before moving back into its equities in any great size. The era of double-digit annual GDP growth looks to be over, and challenges are multiple and mounting. Nominal annual GDP growth of 4.8% in the second quarter was lower than real GDP growth of 6.3%, a huge deflation red flag.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, China's, Zhang Zhiwei, Zhang Dandan, Jamie McGeever, Jamie Freed Organizations: Nasdaq, NYSE, Monetary Fund, Citi, Bank of America, Societe Generale, Peking University, Wall, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, China, United States, U.S, Beijing, India

July 21 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The regional data focus on Friday will be the latest consumer inflation figures from Japan. Core consumer inflation likely re-accelerated in June to a 3.3% annual rate from 3.2% the previous month, staying above the central bank's 2% target for the 15th straight month. In its mid-year review, the government expects overall consumer inflation to hit 2.6% for the fiscal year that began in April, up sharply from 1.7% projected in January. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Thursday's, Dow Jones Industrials, Johnson, Kazuo Ueda, Janet Yellen, Josie Kao Organizations: Nasdaq, Netflix, Johnson, U.S, Treasury, Bank of Japan's, . Treasury, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam

July 20 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. China's central bank is expected to leave key interest rates on hold on Thursday, but the pressure to ease is growing almost by the day. The Dow Jones Industrials is now up eight days in a row for the first time since September 2019. The main argument against cutting rates - and it's a valid one - is the currency. Given all that, it's little wonder China's assets continue to trade poorly, even though the degree of underperformance is startling.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Dow Jones Industrials, Josie Kao Organizations: U.S, IBM, Tesla, Netflix, People's Bank of China, ., Thomson, Reuters Locations: Hong Kong, Asia, China, Japan, Australia

July 19 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The disconnect between Asia and the rest of the world has widened recently, and correlations between the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index and leading U.S. and global indexes are the weakest in about a month. Bulls in Asia will be hoping some of that momentum drives local trading on Wednesday. The MSCI Asia equity index ex-Japan is up 4.6% this year, significantly underperforming the MSCI World index, S&P 500 and Nasdaq which are up 17%, 19% and 38%, respectively. Disappointing second quarter growth figures this week pushed the Chinese economic surprises index to its lowest in more than three years.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, John Kerry, Li Shangfu, Henry Kissinger, Pita Limjaroenrat, Josie Kao Organizations: Bulls, Nasdaq, Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Biden, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, Japan, U.S, China, Beijing, Thailand, Zealand

If the U.S. economy has a "soft landing" - no recession this year with inflation near target, and only a mild downturn next year with unemployment staying historically low - Jerome Powell may lay claim to being the most successful Fed chief in history. Powell was frequently on the receiving end of public lashings from his then boss - "Clueless," "horrendous lack of vision" and "pathetic!" "Kudos to Powell if he can achieve a soft landing. Greenspan, dubbed 'the Maestro' by his admirers, was Fed chief from 1987 to 2006. Not only that, his 36% rating was the lowest of any Fed chair since the survey series began in 2001.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Janet Yellen, Donald Trump, Trump, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Volcker, Greenspan, Joe LaVorgna, Alan Blinder, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Joe, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Powell's, Republican, Nikko Securities, Trump White House, Reuters, New York Fed, Gallup, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, U.S

July 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Data on Monday showed that the world's second largest economy grew at a frail pace in the second quarter while China's Evergrande Group (3333.HK), the world's most indebted property developer, said it lost an eye-watering $81 billion over 2021 and 2022. The shadow over local markets cast by China's second quarter GDP data on Monday is unlikely to lift completely by Tuesday, and the pressure on policymakers in Beijing to deliver more stimulus to shore up activity will surely increase. Chinese GDP grew 0.8% in April-June from the previous quarter, beating the consensus forecast of 0.5%. JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup trimmed China's growth forecast for 2023 to as low as 5%, with Morgan Stanley also trimming its 2024 GDP forecast by 40 basis point to 4.5%.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, China's, Morgan Stanley, Janet Yellen, Josie Kao Organizations: HK, Nasdaq, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Treasury, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson, Reuters Locations: China, Asia, Japan, U.S, Beijing, Real, India

Overall, funds' net short dollar position against a range of currencies was worth some $13.17 billion, down slightly from $13.58 billion the week before. It is still a substantial overall bet on the dollar falling, however, and marks the 36th week in a row funds have been net short. It is comprised of a near $10 billion aggregate bet versus G10 currencies and $3.5 billion versus emerging currencies, namely the peso and real. Funds extended their net long sterling position by around 5,000 contracts to over 58,000, the biggest net long since 2007. That's a $4.7 billion bet on a stronger pound centering on sticky UK inflation versus U.S. disinflation.

Persons: JP, Sterling, Jamie McGeever, Himani Sarkar Organizations: Futures, Federal Reserve, HSBC, U.S, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, U.S, That's

July 17 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The macro and market week in Asia starts with a bang on Monday, with a raft of top-tier economic indicators from China culminating in second-quarter GDP growth data. A raft of Chinese economic indicators for June - investment, retail sales, industrial production and unemployment - will be released on Monday, as well as the second-quarter GDP report. A sub-consensus Q2 GDP print on Monday could tilt expectations toward further easing. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:- China GDP (Q2)- China investment, retail sales, industrial production, unemployment (June)- Indonesia trade (June)By Jamie McGeever; Editing byOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Bank of America, Tesla, Netflix, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, China, U.S, Japan, New Zealand, Australia, Indonesia

July 14 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Together, the fall in the dollar's value and U.S. bond yields is a potent loosening of financial conditions for global markets, particularly emerging markets. MSCI's World stock index jumped more than 1% on Thursday to its highest since April last year. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also hit fresh 15-month highs, and the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index jumped more than 2%. The broadest index of Asia and Pacific shares is now up 5% this week, firmly on course for its best week since November.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Premier Li Qiang, Josie Kao Organizations: Investors, Nasdaq, Premier, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Singapore, Asia, Japan, Pacific, Japanese, China, Beijing, India

The amorphous lag explains the cat-and-mouse game between the Fed and markets that has played out since the central bank began its tightening cycle last year. For their part, markets have long expected the Fed to quickly pivot to a pretty aggressive series of rate cuts, largely to counter the accumulated lag effects of the tightening cycle. Taken at its most literal level, the 500 basis points of tightening since March 2022 - 17 months ago - have still not registered at all. There is a growing body of opinion that the lags have shortened considerably since Friedman shared his 'long and variable' theory. Reuters ImageData on Wednesday showed that consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 3.0% in June, down from 4.0% in May.

Persons: Keen, Milton Friedman, Friedman, Christopher Waller, Phil Suttle, Jamie McGeever, Paul Simao Organizations: Fed, Kansas City Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, U.S

REUTERS/Aly Song/File PhotoJuly 13 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The one percentage point fall in June headline consumer price inflation to 3.0% strengthened hopes that the U.S. economy is heading for a 'soft landing', boosting risk appetite and, more importantly for emerging markets, slamming the dollar. The yen has risen five days in a row, its longest winning streak against the dollar since November. That would be the biggest fall in exports since January - economists at SocGen are penciling in a 15.7% crash. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:- South Korea interest rate decision- China trade (June)- Thailand parliament elects new prime ministerBy Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Aly, Jamie McGeever, BOK, Josie Kao Organizations: Shanghai Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Asia FX, South Korean, Bank of, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Pudong, Shanghai, China, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Zealand, SocGen, Korea, Thailand

July 12 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Figures on Tuesday showed surprisingly strong bank lending in June, helped by central bank efforts to support an economy that has struggled to rebound from pandemic restrictions as expected. On a macro level, the U.S. dollar's weakness continues to help fuel the optimism across Asian markets. New Zealand's central bank is expected to keep its cash rate - already at a 14-year high and the highest in the developed world - at 5.50% on Wednesday and leave it there for the rest of the year. But with inflation running well above target, rates markets are leaning toward one more 25 basis point hike by year end.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Goldman Sachs, Foxconn, Deepa Babington Organizations: Reserve Bank of New, Global, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, U.S, China, Japan, New, Zealand, India

But tempting as it is to buy into that - leading indicators have been flashing red for months, as yet to no avail - we are probably not at that stage just yet. "Most analysts have no choice but to have their initial bias gravitate to the mean or median range of these leading indicators," he said. Reuters ImageReuters ImageLONG AND VARIABLE LAGSOne of the most reliable recession indicators is the spread between three-month and 10-year U.S. bond yields. Reuters ImageReuters ImageAgain, if the economy isn't in recession by the end of the year, this time it really is different. The signals sent by leading indicators recently have been pretty clear - it just remains to be seen whether they will be accurate.

Persons: Jerome Powell, LEI, Eric Basmajian, Milton Friedman's, payrolls, Jamie McGeever, Jan Harvey Organizations: Federal, Reuters, EPB Research, National Bureau of Economic Research, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, Ukraine

July 11 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. All else equal, this would be a tailwind for Asian stocks, bonds and currencies. A New York Fed survey of consumer and inflation expectations was also "risk-friendly." Sentiment toward Asian stocks in recent months has been mostly bearish, with the exception of Japan, but a pause in the selling on Monday lifted the gloom a little. Chinese and broader Asian stocks rose for the first time in four sessions, while the yuan and yen strengthened to two-week highs against the dollar.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Marguerita Choy Organizations: New York Fed, Mainland Banks Index, Ant, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Japan, underperformance, Hong Kong, Mainland, Philippines, Australia, Germany

MSCI's broad Asia ex-Japan index shed 1.5% last week, its third consecutive week without rising, and is flat for the year. Much of that is due to the sluggishness of China's markets, and key indicators from the region's largest economy on Monday will get the trading week underway. Annual producer price inflation, already the most negative since 2016, is seen falling to -5.0% from -4.6% in May. Chinese banking stocks, measured by the Hong Kong-listed Hang Seng Mainland Banks Index (.HSMBI), plunged 10.5% last week. Reflecting just how poorly China's post-lockdown economy has performed relative to consensus forecasts, Citi's Chinese economic surprises index has now fallen 11 weeks in a row.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Janet Yellen's, Yellen, Fed's Barr, Daly, Mester, Diane Craft Organizations: U.S, Mainland Banks Index, Treasury, China CPI, PPI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: China, New Zealand, South Korea, Wall, MSCI's, Asia, Japan, Hong Kong, Mainland, underperformance

July 7 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Friday's non-farm payrolls report for June could cement the hawkish outlook for U.S. rates and yields. The MSCI World share index on Thursday posted its biggest decline since April, while the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index had its biggest fall since February and second biggest this year. The Hang Seng Mainland Banks Index (.HSMBI) tumbled 6.4% on Thursday to a new low for the year, its biggest one-day fall since February 2018. It is down almost 10% this week, also on course for its biggest weekly fall in more than five years.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Janet Yellen, Yellen, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Josie Kao Organizations: Treasury, Investors, Mainland Banks Index, . Treasury, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, Japan, Korean, China . U.S, Beijing, China, Hong Kong, Mainland, South Korea

Even taking into account the dotcom bust and market crash following the 1999-2000 cycle, stocks still shone brighter. The average return of a 100% equity portfolio was 12.75%, an all-bond portfolio returned 9.10%, and a 60/40 portfolio generated 11.09% on average. Equities returned around 26% in the year after the Fed stopped tightening, bonds between 6-8%, and a 60/40 portfolio around 18%. Blended together, a 60/40 portfolio generated double-digit returns after five of these six cycles, including 25% in the mid-1990s. No two economic cycles, Fed reaction functions, inflationary dynamics or asset price dynamics are the same.

Persons: Joe Kleven, Kleven, Paul Volcker, Shelly Simpson, Simpson, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Fed, Nasdaq, NYSE, Mega Tech, ICE, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida

July 6 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. U.S.-China trade tensions appear to be intensifying by the day - the latest flare up coming over Beijing's restrictions on exports of some metals - not the best backdrop for Yellen's visit on Thursday. However well - or otherwise - Yellen's visit goes, there will be no quick fix. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:- U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visits China- Australia trade (May)- Taiwan inflation (June)By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Lisa ShumakerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Janet Yellen, Taiwan's Foxconn, Foxconn's, Wei Jianguo, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: Treasury, Apple Inc, U.S, Vice Commerce, Bank Negara Malaysia, . Treasury, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Beijing, Malaysian, China, Washington, Malaysia, India, South Korea, Indonesia, New Zealand, Bank, Australia, Taiwan

July 5 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Traders will also have Japanese, Australian and Indian services PMIs to digest, as well as the latest inflation data from Thailand and the Philippines, and can expect trading volume to return to more normal levels after the July 4 U.S. holiday. Service sector activity, however, has held up reasonably well and has expanded every month this year, according to the PMI data. This comes ahead of a planned visit to Beijing by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen this week. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Janet Yellen, Alistair Bell Organizations: Service, PMI, U.S, Treasury, Reserve Bank of Australia, PMIs, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Thailand, Philippines, Beijing, Tokyo, Japan, China, India, Australia

[1/2] Pedestrians walk past the main entrance to the Reserve Bank of Australia building in central Sydney, Australia, October 3, 2016. Interest rate swaps markets are only attaching a one-in-three probability of a hike, and around a two-in-three likelihood of no move. In another Reuters poll, economists said they expect annual consumer price inflation in South Korea to have slowed in June to 2.85% from 3.30%. Figures on Monday showed that factory activity in South Korea shrank for a record 12th consecutive month in June. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:- Australia interest rate decision- South Korea inflation (June)- Germany trade balance (May)By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Marguerita ChoyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: David Gray, Jamie McGeever, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, REUTERS, U.S, Investors, Japan, Wall, Traders, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Sydney, Australia, U.S, Asia, South Korea, Korea, Germany

July 3 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Purchasing managers index (PMI) reports on Monday from across the Asia-Pacific region, including China, India, South Korea and Australia, will give the first glimpse into private sector services and factory activity in June. Monday's Asian economic calendar is dominated by a raft of manufacturing PMIs including China's, Indonesian inflation, Japan's 'tankan' business sentiment survey for the second quarter, and Australian housing. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 50.2 from 50.9, signaling a slowdown in factory sector growth almost the point of stagnation. The official PMI, expected to show a third month of contraction, will be released on Friday.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Josie Kao Organizations: Japan's Nikkei, U.S, PMI, Equity, Indonesia CPI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, Japan, Pacific, China, India, South Korea, Australia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia

ORLANDO, Florida, June 30 (Reuters) - Britain has an inflation problem, but imagine how much worse it would be were it not for the strong pound? But of all the factors pushing up UK inflation, including some that are unique to Britain's economy, labor market and cost of doing business as a consequence of Brexit, a weak exchange rate is not one of them. Indeed, sterling's value on a real effective exchange rate (REER) basis is the highest it has been since the Brexit vote. "UK inflation would indeed be even higher if sterling had not appreciated," Novy said. All else being equal, and taking into account the notorious 'long and variable' lag between interest rate hikes and cooling price pressures, UK inflation could come down pretty quickly next year.

Persons: Liz Truss's, Dennis Novy, Novy, BoE, turvy, Alan Ruskin, Ruskin, Goldman Sachs, Jamie McGeever, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, University of Warwick, Brexit, Deutsche Bank, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, Britain, Ukraine

[1/2] An aerial view shows cars for export at a port in Yantai, Shandong province, China May 3, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS/File PhotoJune 30 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Goldman's emerging markets financial conditions index is the lowest in 16 months, which stands in contrast to developed economies where rates, bond yields borrowing costs of all stripes are rising sharply. The U.S. two-year yield jumped 15 basis points on Thursday, its biggest rise in a month, and traders are now pricing in at least one more quarter point rate hike this year. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:- China PMIs (June)- Japan - Tokyo inflation (June)- U.S. PCE inflation (May)By Jamie McGeever;Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, China PMIs Organizations: REUTERS, Asia's, Bank of Japan, U.S, PCE, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Yantai, Shandong province, China, Japan, Tokyo, South Korea, U.S

In some ways, China and Japan are joined at the hip. As beggar-thy-neighbor foreign exchange depreciation pressures bubble up across Asia, the attraction of a weaker exchange rate grows. In terms of bilateral trade between China and Japan, the attraction is equally clear. China is Japan's largest trading partner, Japan is China's third-largest individual nation trading partner, and bilateral trade is worth around $370 billion annually. Remarkably, the yen has depreciated 25% against the yuan over the last three years, giving corporate Japan a substantial competitive advantage over China Inc.

Persons: Steven Englander, Brad Setser, Jamie McGeever Organizations: Reuters, U.S, Asian Development Bank, Standard Chartered, Finance, Bank for International, China Inc, of Foreign Relations, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, Japan, China, Asia, East Asia, Beijing

June 29 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The cold reality of 'higher for longer' interest rates that cooled investor sentiment on Wednesday will lend a cautious tone to Asian trading on Thursday, with investors also wary of potential action from Tokyo and Beijing on exchange rates. On the regional data front retail sales and consumer confidence from Japan and Australian retail sales take center stage, while investors with exposure to Vietnam will be paying close attention to second quarter GDP growth figures from Hanoi. Annual profits at China's industrial firms extended a double-digit decline in the first five months as softening demand squeezed margins. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:- Japan retail sales and consumer confidence (May)- Australia retail sales (May)- Vietnam GDP (Q2)By Jamie McGeever;Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Treasuries Organizations: Central, Wall, Apple, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Beijing, Japan, Vietnam, Hanoi, Sintra , Portugal, U.S, China, Australia

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