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On Monday, stocks struggled ahead of this week's inflation data, which will likely set the tone for short term market action. The S & P 500 was little changed, the Nasdaq Composite made a small advance while the Dow Jones Industrial Average pulled back about a third of a percent. The first trade is a so-called tail hedge against a hotter-than-expected CPI print, i.e. buying S & P 500 put options. The value of the put contracts will increase if the S & P 500 falls on a surprising resurgence of inflation.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: JPMorgan, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Investors, Federal Reserve
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. In my final summer before graduation, I managed to land three internship offers — from a consulting company, a consumer goods company, and JPMorgan. When I got that phone call that I got the JPMorgan internship, it was so exciting and I felt really grateful. I wanted desperately to be in a place where I feel stimulated and I'm interested in the work I'm doing. The alternative was job hunting from scratch, not knowing what I would land and whether the offer would even come close to what JPMorgan was paying.
Persons: , Nick Rutherford Organizations: Service, of Pennsylvania, JPMorgan Private Bank, Unilever, Business, University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business, JPMorgan, company's Locations: Seattle, Jersey
BTIG's chief market technician warned Sunday that, while the pullback seen early last week generated some "tactical buy signals," he thinks the "bulk of the bounce has likely run its course and [we] would use strength … to lighten exposure." However, the broad market index clawed back most of that decline by Friday, posting a weekly loss of just 0.04%. .SPX 1M mountain SPX 1-month chart "A final durable low is likely still ahead of us," Krinksy said. The big event this week will be the release of the consumer price index reading for July, due Wednesday. "We see LLY stock outperforming for its high growth outlook and low beta," the Deutsche analyst added, while calling the drugmaker a "low beta/high growth unicorn."
Persons: Jonathan Krinsky doesn't, Krinsky, Krinksy, Eric Johnston, Cantor Fitzgerald, Lori Calvasina, Scott Rubner, Goldman Sachs, Eli Lilly Organizations: JPMorgan, RBC Capital Markets, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche
Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months." The last time that happened was early in 2020, when the economy came to an abrupt halt. Economists have wrestled with the growing disconnect between how the economy is doing and how people feel about their financial standing. We're in a 'vibecession'We're in a "vibecession," Joyce Chang, JPMorgan's chair of global research, said at the CNBC Financial Advisor Summit in May. "Everything looks great but when you look beneath the surface, the disparity between the wealthy and nonwealthy is widening dramatically."
Persons: Gene Goldman, Vishal Kapoor, Joyce Chang, JPMorgan's, that's, Chang, Goldman Organizations: Cetera Financial, National Bureau of Economic Research, CNBC, Summit Locations: El Segundo , California
Rather than developing its own AI models, JPMorgan designed LLM Suite to be a portal that allows users to tap external large language models — the complex programs underpinning generative AI tools — and launched it with ChatGPT maker OpenAI’s LLM, said the people. ChatGPT banThe bank is giving employees what is essentially OpenAI’s ChatGPT in a JPMorgan-approved wrapper more than a year after it restricted employees from using ChatGPT. The number of uses for generative AI are “exponentially bigger” than previous technology because of how flexible LLMs are, Heitsenrether said. Ultimately, the generative AI field may develop into “five or six big foundational models” that dominate the market, she said. Heitsenrether charted out three stages for the evolution of generative AI at JPMorgan.
Persons: ” Teresa Heitsenrether, , ChatGPT, Morgan Stanley, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, JPMorgan didn’t, Heitsenrether, , “ We’ve, ” Heitsenrether, it’s, — CNBC’s Leslie Picker Organizations: JPMorgan Chase, CNBC, JPMorgan, Apple, Accenture, Citigroup Locations: U.S
Global markets reached levels of turbulence rarely seen this week, but traders at Goldman Sachs are unfazed and don't believe it is a sign of a big danger lurking. The S & P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday suffered their biggest one-day declines since 2022. The market then roared back with the S & P 500 posting its biggest gain since 2022 on Thursday. After the late-week comeback, the S & P 500 is only down for the week by about half a percent. .VIX 5D bar Wild week for VIX Goldman traders expect gains going forward, but they see the path higher as a "choppy" one.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Wall Street's, Goldman, VIX Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Eli Lilly, LLY Organizations: Goldman, Dow Jones, Monday, JPMorgan, pharma
In today's big story, turns out being a venture capitalist can be really hard, and some VCs want out . The big storyWe were promised big returnsiStock; Rebecca Zisser/InsiderFor venture capitalists, when the going gets tough, the tough get going…toward the exits. Some VC workers are reconsidering their future as the industry goes through a rough patch, writes Business Insider's Sri Muppidi. The ink was barely dry on a deal before startups were raising another round, doubling their VCs' investment (on paper) along the way. One Bay Area partner told Sri junior investors need to meet dozens of companies a week.
Persons: , Rebecca Zisser, It's, That's, VCs, dobi, Goldman Sachs, duMond, Chip Somodevilla, Alyssa Powell, Jamie Dimon, we're, Jamie, David Zalubowski, Chelsea Jia Feng, Meta's Instagram, Grzegorz Wajda, Elon Musk, Musk's X, he's, Grimes, Sam Altman, Kamala Harris, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Business, VCs, Tiger Global, Area, JPMorgan, YouTube, Dell, Getty, Elon, Federation, Global Alliance, Responsible Media, UK Prime, Democratic, Trump, Disney Locations: Patagonia, Dimon, Anaheim , California, North Carolina, Virginia, New York, London
DuPont's water business DuPont is considered a leader in purification and specialty-separation technologies that generates cleaner water for industries, governments, and communities. Arun Viswanathan, analyst at RBC Capital Markets, characterizes Dupont's water business' next-generation products as being "at the top of the technology pyramid." Dupont's water business is the smallest of the three companies that will be created by the breakup. As this exercise shows, DuPont's water business as a standalone firm would certainly deserve that compared to some. Potential M & A It's possible DuPont's water business never makes it to standalone status.
Persons: we've, Jim Cramer, It's, Lori Koch, it's, Aleksey Yefremov, Arun Viswanathan, Viswanathan, Dupont, RBC's Viswanathan, DuPont, KeyBank's Yefremov, EBITDA, Pentair, Veralto, Yefremov, They'll, they'll, , Koch, Ed Breen, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Jeff Fusco Organizations: DuPont, CNBC, JPMorgan, Bank, Barclays, RBC Capital Markets Locations: China, North America, Asia, East, Africa, America, Yefremov, Wilmington , Delaware
JPMorgan's message has become the talk of Wall Street as everyone from recruiters to junior bankers tries to figure out what it might mean for them. Here are 4 ways JPMorgan's missive could impact Wall Street, from private-equity recruiting to junior bankers who fear of losing their jobs and more. But JPMorgan's warning that coming forward could get one fired leaves junior bankers in a damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don't scenario. Advertisement"I think probably the biggest impact is going to be on current bankers and prospective bankers," he said. Do you work on Wall Street?
Persons: , Chase, it's, JPMorgan, It's, Anthony Keizner, who's, Keizner, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, I'd, Emmalyse, Reed Alexander Organizations: Service, Business, JPMorgan, Wall, Search, Bankers, BI, Citigroup, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Barclays Locations: Instagram, New York
Financial-services firms risk the wrath of the Securities and Exchange Commission if their employees make campaign contributions to state or local officials such as Walz. Donating to the campaign would violate the regulator's "pay-to-play" rule, which keeps firms from trying to sway politicians for favors such as managing their state's pension fund. Those employees are also required to get permission to donate to the Harris-Walz campaign. It is possible to sidestep the pay-to-play rule by donating to PACs or Super PACs that aren't directly tied to the relevant candidate. "The Pay-to-Play Rule, although well-intentioned, imposes unique, unquantifiable costs on individuals by impeding their ability to participate in the political process."
Persons: , Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Tim Walz, Walz, Harris, Donald Trump's, Wells, Mike Pence, Pershing, Patricia Crouse, Crouse, aren't, Hester Peirce Organizations: Service, Street, for Responsive, Democrat, Minnesota Gov, Financial, Securities and Exchange Commission, Business, Citigroup, Citi, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Trump, Pershing, SEC, University of New Locations: Wells Fargo, Indiana, Massachusetts, Tallahassee , Florida, University of New Haven
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is eyeing a potential interest rate cut in September. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon thinks those two events aren't as significant as many think. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy .
Persons: Jamie Dimon, , CNBC's Organizations: Federal, JPMorgan, Service, Federal Reserve, Bank of, Business
JPMorgan raises 2024 recession odds to 35%
  + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The bank raised its probability for a U.S. or global recession to 35% by year end, chief global economist Bruce Kasman told clients in a Wednesday note. Meanwhile, JPMorgan kept its odds for a recessionary period by the second half of 2025 at 45%. But traders got better news on the labor market front on Thursday, with the volume of weekly jobless claims coming in lower than economists expected. To be sure, despite raising his odds, Kasman said investors should not assume all signs point to a recession. In fact, Kasman described his increase to near-term recession risk as modest.
Persons: Bruce Kasman, Kasman, Goldman Sachs Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal, Fed Locations: U.S
DORA requires banks, insurance companies and investment to strengthen their IT security. The EU regulation also seeks to ensure the financial services industry is resilient in the event of a severe disruption to operations. These IT providers often deliver "critical digital services to customers," said Joe Vaccaro, general manager of Cisco-owned internet quality monitoring firm ThousandEyes. This has made banks and other financial services providers more vulnerable to cyberattacks and other incidents. DORA will focus more on banks' digital supply chain — which represents a new, potentially less comfortable legal dynamic for financial firms.
Persons: DORA, DORA —, Charles Schwab —, Mike Sleightholme, Joe Vaccaro, Banks, Vaccaro, Sleightholme, it's, Carl Leonard, Leonard, Stephen McDermid, Okta, Fredrik Forslund, Blancco, there's, Forslund Organizations: Getty, Financial, European Union, CNBC, JPMorgan Chase, Santander, Visa, Broadridge, Cisco, EU, Data Locations: European, EU, DORA, noncompliance
Read previewJPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon is still predicting a recession. "I'm fairly optimistic that if we have a mild recession, even a harder one, we will be OK," Dimon told the outlet. This week, Dimon also told CNBC that he's skeptical the Fed will reach its goal of achieving maximum employment while returning inflation to a rate of 2% over the long run. Advertisement"They haven't really happened yet, but they are going to happen, and they're not deflationary," Dimon told the outlet of the potential market influences. Related storiesBut ultimately, Dimon said he doesn't think the rate effect itself is all that important.
Persons: , Jamie Dimon, Dimon Organizations: Service, CNBC, Business, Swiss, JPMorgan
Lilly's shares are up more than 7% on the news. LLY YTD mountain Eli Lilly shares year to date. The first followed positive reports from rivals that showed they were making progress in developing their own weight loss drugs . However, sales rose 59% for Mounjaro quarter over quarter and were up 140% for Zepbound as Lilly saw better pricing. Meanwhile, analysts see several events on the horizon that could further boost Lilly's shares in coming months.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Bansal, Lilly, Carter Gould, Lilly's headwinds, Novo's, Wells Fargo's Bansal, Evan David Seigerman, Chris Schott, Schott, Lilly's Organizations: Novo Nordisk, Wells, Barclays, Nordisk, BMO Capital Markets, Food and Drug Administration Locations: Wells Fargo, Lilly's, Wednesday's
.VIX YTD mountain Cboe Volatility Index in 2024 That is literally what the VIX measures: expectations for volatility over the next 30 days. Was Monday a 'flash crash'? A "flash crash" is a sudden and severe price drop that lasts for a very short period, usually a few hours. "It appears that the sell-off of August 5th qualified as a flash crash, although it was rather modest by historical standards," he told me. During the 1987 flash crash, Higgins said an investor was trying to orchestrate trades on the phone while he was preparing to go to his relative's funeral.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Alec Young, haven't, Mark Higgins, Higgins Organizations: Bank of Japan, Yen Trust, JPMorgan Chase, Fund, Dow Jones Locations: Japan, backwardation
Jamie Dimon says he still sees a recession on the horizon
  + stars: | 2024-08-07 | by ( Hugh Son | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday he still believes that the odds of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy are around 35% to 40%, making recession the most likely scenario in his mind. When CNBC's Leslie Picker asked Dimon if he had changed his view from February that markets were too optimistic on recession risks, he said the odds were "about the same" as his earlier call. Dimon, leader of the biggest U.S. bank by assets and one of the most respected voices on Wall Street, has warned of an economic "hurricane" since 2022. But the economy has held up better than he expected, and Dimon said Wednesday that while credit-card borrower defaults are rising, America is not in a recession right now. "I'm fully optimistic that if we have a mild recession, even a harder one, we would be okay.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, CNBC's Leslie Picker, Dimon, I've Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S, America
Consumers and small businesses sent $806 billion across 2.9 billion Zelle transactions in 2023, both up 28% from 2022. Consumers reported losing $210 million to scams across all payment apps in 2023, according to data from the Federal Trade Commission. The new bill aims to amend the law to make banks more liable for all financial transactions, whether they're authorized or unauthorized. AdvertisementOver 99.95% of all Zelle transactions in 2023 were completed without instances of fraud, according to Zelle. In the meantime, the Protecting Consumers from Payment Scams Act will go to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs for review.
Persons: , JPMorgan Chase, PayPal —, Maxine Waters, Sen, Richard Blumenthal, Elizabeth Warren, Waters, Zelle, Blumenthal, Wells Fargo, Wells, Cameron Fowler Organizations: Service, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Business, PayPal, Consumers, Federal Trade Commission, Rep, Homeland Security, Governmental Affairs, Investigations, Blumenthal, Services, Warning Services, SEC, Consumer Financial, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs Locations: Zelle, Wells Fargo, jtowfighi@businessinsider.com
When you hear commentators talking this week about the “yen carry trade” or the “great unwind,” they’re referring to a popular trading strategy that is, suddenly, blowing up in investors’ faces. The carry trade, explainedPut simply: A carry trade is when you borrow money in a place where interest rates are low and use it to invest elsewhere in assets that generate some kind of return. “That is bonkers.”The yen carry trade proved especially popular in the last four years, because Japan was the only major economy in the world offering essentially free money. The carry trade relies on borrowing, which means it’s a leveraged position. “The carry trade unwind… is somewhere between 50%-60% complete.”In other words: Buckle up, and don’t panic.
Persons: CNN Business ’, , John Authers, , it’s, John Sedunov, Kit Juckes, ” Sedunov, Arindam Sandilya, JPMorgan Chase, Buckle Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Wall, ” Bloomberg, Treasury, Villanova School of Business, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Societe Generale, JPMorgan, Bloomberg Locations: New York, Japan, Europe
Novo Nordisk shocked investors on Wednesday when its latest results fell short of Wall Street's expectations. While Eli Lilly's stock remains up about 32% year to date, concerns about increasing competition in the category have resulted in a nearly 16% decline for Lilly shares over the past month. Eli Lilly is making similar attempts with Zepbound, but its launch is at an earlier stage than Wegovy. Second-quarter sales of Ozempic, Novo's diabetes treatment, rose 4% from the first quarter, while Wegovy revenue grew 24% quarter over quarter. Barclays analyst Emily Field told clients in a research note that she would be a buyer of Novo Nordisk shares on the weakness.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Eli, Lilly, Wells, Mohit Bansal, Ozempic, Bansal, Emily Field, David Song, Song, Chris Schott, Schott Organizations: Novo Nordisk, LSEG, Lilly's, Management, Food and Drug Administration, Barclays, Tema, JPMorgan Locations: Wells Fargo, IQVIA, Amgen, MariTide, Novo, CagriSema
Investors highlighted their portfolio companies and startups they had no financial ties to. Leena Rao, who oversaw the list and leads BI's VCs and startups team, estimated about 80% of the startups included are focused on AI. AdvertisementiStock; BIAs differentiated as AI startups try to be, the market has undeniably become oversaturated. Big Tech reform is coming, but Washington won't be the one doing it. Congress can't or won't act, so people who want Big Tech companies to change their ways are trying to do it through the courts .
Persons: , Kamala Harris, Tim Walz, Here's, Kimberly White, Chelsea Jia Feng, Leena Rao, BI's, That's, It's, Arindam Sandilya, Paul Dietrick, Oppenheimer, John Stoltzfus, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Adam Mosher, Mosher, YouTube's, Jimmy Donaldson, Alyssa Powell, Elon, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Annie Smith, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Business, Boldstart Ventures, TechCrunch, Healthcare, Getty, JPMorgan, FX, UBS, BI Prosecutors, Big Tech Locations: Minnesota, we're, Washington, New York, London
CNBC Daily Open: Dow sheds 1,000 points
  + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Abid Ali | Kevin Lim | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Wall Street sinksThe Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 suffered their sharpest declines in nearly two years, as growing concerns about the U.S. economy rocked global stock markets. The Dow plummeted over 1,000 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 3% and 3.4%, respectively. Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel urged the Federal Reserve to make an emergency 75-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate following Friday's disappointing jobs data. [PRO] Don't panicDespite a global stock market rout, several investors and strategists advised against panicking at this point.
Persons: Berkshire Hathaway, Amit Mehta, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, CNBC's, cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, bitcoin, Nexo, Antoni Trenchev, panicking Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, Nasdaq, Tech, Nvidia, Tesla, Berkshire, Google, Department of Justice, Federal Reserve, Chicago Federal, bitcoin Locations: U.S
Here are Tuesday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Stifel initiates GE Healthcare as buy Stifel said it's bullish on shares of the GE spin-off. Rosenblatt reiterates Nvidia as buy Rosenblatt said concerns about delays in the company's Blackwell chip are overdone. " JPMorgan downgrades Carlyle Group to neutral from overweight JPMorgan said it sees better value elsewhere. Morgan Stanley reiterates Apple as overweight Morgan Stanley said Monday's DOJ ruling on Alphabet is a negative for Apple. JPMorgan upgrades Sonic Automotive to overweight from neutral JPMorgan said investors should buy the dip in the auto company.
Persons: Stifel, it's, Morgan Stanley, Rosenblatt, Blackwell, JPMorgan, Carlyle, Piper Sandler, Piper, Palantir, KeyBanc, D.A, Davidson, Apple, GOOGL, SAH, underperform Macquarie Organizations: GE Healthcare, GE, Taiwan Semiconductor, JPMorgan, Barclays, Nvidia, Blackwell, Royal, JPMorgan downgrades Carlyle Group, Bank of America, Artificial Intelligence, Micron, Apollo, of America, Apollo Global Management, APO, Meta, Retail Media, DOJ, Apple, Aspen, Sonic Automotive, SS, UBS, Walmart, Northland, Honest, Honest Company, Macquarie, underperform Locations: Royal Caribbean, GOOGL, EVs, China
The S & P 500 was higher Tuesday, one day after the broad market index posted its worst day in nearly two years amid revived fears of a recession. The current pullback has all the hallmarks of a market correction, the strategist said. So, don't rush to try to catch a falling knife," Malek said. The S & P 500 on Tuesday traded about 7% below a record high reached last month. Besides, he said, it is hard to think of a market correction occurring in August, when a bottom is historically more likely to happen in the month of October.
Persons: Thomas Salopek, Salopek, Mark Malek, Siebert, Malek, CFRA's Sam Stovall, Stovall, Strategas, Chris Verrone, Verrone Organizations: Nasdaq, JPMorgan
Kelly says the Fed needs to broadcast its confidence in the economy to soothe jittery markets. JPMorgan's David Kelly told Business Insider he sees a possibility for even deeper losses following the big rout. We do stand ready to cut rates as appropriate but we don't think there's a very urgent situation here," Kelly said. More importantly, cutting rates abruptly would potentially instill more fear about the economy among investors, Kelly said. And I don't think the Federal Reserve tells people that, or maybe they don't appreciate it themselves," Kelly said, adding, "It's a drag before it's a stimulus."
Persons: Kelly, JPMorgan's David Kelly, , David Kelly, Monday's, we've, Dow Jones Organizations: Fed, Service, JPMorgan Asset Management, Nasdaq, Nikkei, Reserve Locations: Japan
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