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Oct 13 (Reuters) - Futures for Canada's resource heavy stock index on Thursday ticked higher, tracking gold and crude prices, with investors avoiding big bets ahead of a crucial U.S. inflation data later in the day. December futures on the S&P/TSX index rose 0.3% after five days of losses on the TSX. Gold prices were steady, while crude oil prices enjoyed extended support from the OPEC+ cuts last week, which the International Energy Agency warned may push the global economy into recession. [GOl/]Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterS&P futures rose 0.5% to lead gains among the U.S. stock futures ahead of September consumer prices data due at 08:30 a.m. Canada's stock index (.GSPTSE) closed lower on Wednesday, as U.S. producer price data and minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting bolstered expectations for additional rate hikes.
Futures jittery ahead of U.S. CPI data
  + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Consumer prices data due at 8:30 am ET will be closely watched for clues on how the central bank will proceed with its monetary policy tightening. The headline CPI is expected to have gained at an annual pace of 8.1% in September, decelerating from August's 8.3% rise, according to a Reuters poll. ET, Dow e-minis were up 86 points, or 0.29%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 9.25 points, or 0.26%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 12 points, or 0.11%. Investors also awaited quarterly earnings reports from BlackRock (BLK.N), Domino's Pizza (DPZ.N), Walgreens Boots Alliance and Delta Air Lines (DAL.N). read moreRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb ChakrabartyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Core inflation — which removes food and energy costs — rose to a one-year rate of 6.6%, the highest since 1981. Housing counts for roughly one-third of the average household's spending and counts for an even larger slice of core inflation. While gas and food inflation has generally eased up from levels seen earlier in 2022, housing costs are taking their place. Accelerating core inflation signals the Fed's rate hikes aren't yet weighing on overall price growth, and that it's more than gas and food prices that are keeping inflation elevated. Yet rising core inflation underscores just how hard it will be for the US to put historic price growth behind it.
The risks of prolonged inflation and a global recession are growing, according to S&P Global in a note. S&P predicted stocks could plunge as much as 14.5% by mid-next year as inflation remains sticky. "Monetary tightening beyond current expectations could lead to a deeper-than expected recession." "The potential for a prolonged period of rising inflation and low economic growth is increasing," S&P Global analysts said in a note on Wednesday. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon predicted last week a recession will hit in six to nine months, and stocks could plunge another 20%.
Economists expect core inflation — which removes food and energy costs — to rebound in September. An increase would make it even harder for the Fed to fight inflation without pulling the US into a recession. Should the projection prove correct, that will place core inflation back at the March peak and the fastest pace since 1981. Core inflation, meanwhile, rose in August to 6.3% from 5.9%, kickstarting the divergence that's expected to continue into the fall. Whether the September inflation data surprises to the upside or shows price growth slowing more than expected, either outcome is unlikely to change the Fed's plans.
Bitcoin fell to its lowest level in over a week on Monday as investors continued to digest strong jobs data from Friday that pushed risk assets including cryptocurrencies even deeper into the red. I also expect significant volatility on Thursday, with a move up or down depending on the inflation figure." Investors watch these updates closely for clues about the Federal Reserve's next move in its fight to bring down inflation. "Key data points to watch out for this week will be the CPI data beat/miss on Wednesday and the FOMC minutes, a whiff of dovishness is likely to be supportive for crypto assets." Despite the anxiety hanging over investors, cryptocurrencies' volatility has been uncharacteristically low in recent weeks, though its correlation with stocks remains positive.
Cathie Wood, Founder, CEO, and CIO of ARK Invest, speaks at the 2022 Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, May 2, 2022. The Federal Reserve likely is making a mistake in its hardline stance against inflation Ark Investment Management's Cathie Wood said Monday in an open letter to the central bank. Instead of looking at employment and price indexes from previous months, Wood said the Fed should be taking lessons from commodity prices that indicate the biggest economic risk going forward is deflation, not inflation. Specifically, the consumer price and personal consumption expenditures price indexes both showed inflation running high. Headline CPI rose 0.1% in August and was up 8.3% year over year, while headline PCE accelerated 0.3% and 6.2% respectively.
Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, speaks during a Fed Listens event in Washington, D.C., US, on Friday, Sept. 23, 2022. Federal Reserve officials this week gave their clearest signal yet that they're willing to tolerate a recession as the necessary trade-off for regaining control of inflation. That's monetary policy in this era of rapid inflation, swooning economic growth and heightened fears over what could go wrong. "But I would argue that they're still being overly optimistic at which the inflation rate is going to decelerate on its own." "Right now, the pain that I hear, the suffering that people are telling me what they're going through, is on the inflation side," she said during a talk at the Council on Foreign Relations.
As we saw from Starbucks (SBUX), Humana (HUM) and Danaher (DHR) this week, companies are still investing in the future despite the difficult macroeconomic environment. Conferences will continue next week and within the portfolio we look forward to hearing from Nvidia (NVDA), Salesforce (CRM) and Qualcomm (QCOM). On Thursday, initial jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 10 came in at 213,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the prior week and below expectations of 227,000. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER .
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