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“The polls — public and private — are closer in this election than any I have ever seen,” said Dan Pfeiffer, a former aide to Barack Obama. Republican pollster Frank Luntz summed up the election with a single gif: A coin flip. The Trump era brought a return of uncertainty after most pollsters and prognosticators missed his 2016 victory, and 2024 is the narrowest polling election of all three of his runs. In 2020, the data correctly predicted Joe Biden’s victory, but Trump came much closer than many expected. “This race is remarkable for its closeness but also the insane stability of polls here in the closing weeks,” said Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson.

Persons: James Carville, ”, “, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Dan Pfeiffer, Barack Obama, Jeff Horwitt, Bill McInturff, Tim Malloy, ” “ It’s, ” Nate Silver, Republican pollster Frank Luntz, Matt Gorman, “ It’s, Bush, Gore, Gorman, “ There’s, Hope, decamping, Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama’s, John McCain, Trump, prognosticators, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden’s, Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray, ” Murray, Obama, underestimating Harris, gaffes, pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson, Harris, Carville Organizations: Democratic, NBC, Republican, Quinnipiac University, Supreme, Trump, Monmouth University, Electoral College Locations: Manhattan, Florida, Erie County, Pennsylvania

☆ Social Security's retirement trust fund may run out in nine years. Here's how the next U.S. president may address that
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-19 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

As more retirees start to claim Social Security, there are not enough workers contributing to the program to make up for that increase in benefit payments. But the trust fund Social Security relies on to pay retirement benefits is projected to be depleted in 2033. watch nowBoth presidential candidates — former president Trump and Vice President Harris — have vowed to protect Social Security benefits. "Seniors should not pay tax on Social Security," Trump wrote on July 31 in all capital letters on social media platform Truth Social. Ending taxes on Social Security benefits would move the insolvency date of Social Security's trust fund closer by over one year, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Allison Joyce, —, Donald Trump —, Trump, Harris —, Jason Fichtner, Mike Blake, Howard Gleckman, Gleckman, Harris, Kevin Lamarque, Joe Biden, Biden, Governor Walz, Mia Ehrenberg Organizations: Art House Theatre, Bloomberg, Getty, Social Security Administration, Democratic, Republican, Social, Social Security, CNBC, Center, Alliance, Lifetime, Income, Trump, Reuters, ABC, Finance, Urban, Brookings Tax, Brookings, U.S, Union, Employers, Center for Economic, Research, Washington Democrats Locations: Fayetteville , North Carolina, Coachella , California, U.S, Detroit , Michigan

In August, LGBTQ rights were unmentioned in GOP broadcast TV ads; in September, they accounted for just 7.5%, or about $7 million in total broadcast spending. Crime ranked second, drawing about 55% of Republican broadcast ad dollars. In September, both issues still ranked among the top five, with crime the leading issue, though ad spending on immigration was down to 35%, and crime to 44%. Pro-Harris campaign adsHarris and her allies have also made some strategic adjustments to the content of their broadcast TV advertising. In August, taxation ranked as the fifth issue for Democrats in their broadcast TV advertising, accounting for about a quarter of presidential spending.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, –, ’, Trump Organizations: CNN, Trump, Republican, GOP, Democratic, Biden

☆ Elections, hurricane damage and more: Here are four factors that will shape holiday shoppers' purchases
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-19 | by ( Melissa Repko | In Melissa-Repko | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Several hard-to-predict factors will influence consumers' spending, as they deck the halls and look for the perfect gifts. That's a more modest increase than the 3.9% year-over-year jump from the 2022 to 2023 holiday season, when spending totaled $955.6 billion. Shoppers expect to spend an average of $1,778 on the holidays this year, 8% more than last holiday season, according to consulting firm Deloitte's survey. SharkNinja CEO Mark Barrocas described the election as the "biggest unknown" that will shape the holiday season. A shorter holiday season

Persons: Michael M, Stephen Rogers, Mario Tama, Rogers, Matt Shay, it's, Lance Allen, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Scott Olson, Mark Barrocas, It's, Jen Acerra, Ed Bastian, Evan Gold, Gold, Jack Kleinhenz, Allen, they're Organizations: Herald, Santiago, Getty, Deloitte, National Retail Federation, Shoppers, Deloitte's Consumer Industry Center, Walmart, Catering, Home Depot, Democratic, Republican, Amazon, Delta Air Lines, CNBC, Hurricane Milton, Anadolu, Planalytics, Depot Locations: New York City, Burbank , California, Traverse City , Michigan, Florida, Clearwater, Philadelphia, San Francisco, North Carolina

☆ Drug costs, abortion, Obamacare: How Trump and Harris could change U.S. health care
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-19 | by ( Annika Kim Constantino | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +18 min

He said a Harris administration "will build on existing programs, increasing federal spending to make health care more affordable for people." Still, Socal said a Trump administration wouldn't have much flexibility to dismantle or scale back the law without change from Congress. The IRA extended enhanced subsidies that made ACA health plans more affordable for millions of households through 2025 — a provision Harris plans to make permanent if elected, her campaign said. A Democratic House or Senate would likely block any of Trump's sweeping changes to Medicaid, according to Altman. Vance this month also said a future Trump administration would defund Planned Parenthood.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Trump, Drew Altman, Harris, KFF, Anna Moneymaker, Biden, Joe Biden's, Mariana Socal, Socal, didn't, Stephen Patrick, KFF's Altman, Nathan Posner, Altman, Bill Clark, Roe, Wade, Joe Raedle, Stacey Lee, Johns, Lee, mifepristone, Sen, JD Vance, Trump's, Vance, Nicholas Kamm Organizations: Democratic, U.S, U.S . Naval, Getty, Reuters, CNBC, Congress, The Commonwealth Fund, RAND, U.S . Department of Health, Human Services, Washington , D.C, Republicans, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Trump, wouldn't, Biden, Medicare, Emory University, Lawmakers, Affordable, ACA, Medicaid, Democrats, White, Anadolu, Social Security, Capitol, CQ, Inc, The New York Times, Siena College, PBS, Prime, Convention, Johns Hopkins Carey Business School, Republican Party, U.S . Senate, Food and Drug Administration, FDA, CNN, Afp Locations: Israel, Washington, U.S, Washington ,, Canada, Jacksonville , Florida, Ohio

CNN —Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump collided Friday in Michigan, both barnstorming the state as they wage a tight battle for its potentially decisive 15 Electoral College votes. He said he’d boost American auto manufacturing by slapping steep tariffs on imported vehicles. Rebecca Cook/ReutersBattle for Arab American votersTrump on Friday visited a campaign office in Hamtramck, which has a large Muslim and Arab American population. Trump has courted auto workers in Michigan with pledges to impose steep tariffs on vehicles imported from Mexico and China. Detroiters don’t give up on each other or their city, something Donald Trump will never understand,” Whitmer says in the 30-second spot.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, ’, Harris, Trump, Joe Biden, ” Trump, Biden, Hillary Clinton, Rebecca Cook, Amer Ghalib, Benjamin Netanyahu, ”, ” Harris, Assad Turfe, Yahya Sinwar, “, Shawn Fain, “ He’s, Reuters Trump, he’d, Trump’s, Gretchen Whitmer’s, “ Donald Trump, Detroiters don’t, ” Whitmer, Detroit “, CNN’s Ali, Ethan Cohen Organizations: CNN, Electoral, Trump, White House, Michigan, Biden, Democratic, Michigan —, Reuters, Arab American voters Trump, United Auto Workers, Motor, Economic, ” Michigan Democratic Gov, Hell PAC, Detroit Locations: Michigan, Oakland County, Detroit, Waterford Township, Grand Rapids, Western Michigan, Kent County, Lansing, Auburn Hills, . Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Gaza, Waterford Township , Michigan, Hamtramck, Arab, Wayne County, Lebanon, Israel, Mexico, China, America

☆ Harris media blitz and Trump campaign rallies capture Americans’ attention
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-19 | by ( Ariel Edwards-Levy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The survey also finds dishonesty remaining a central theme of the election, with “lies” the most common word used in conjunction with Trump’s campaign. While both Harris and Trump have been holding rallies and speaking with podcasters, Harris has ramped up her media appearances. Mentions of the campaign made up 36% of the responses about Harris, and 28% of the responses about Trump, a 10-point rise for each candidate compared with the start of the month. “She is doing the media blitz everyone wanted.”Georgetown University, University of Michigan and s3mc.orgBy contrast, when Americans were asked to describe the news about Trump, “rally” was the second-most commonly word used in response. “He’s been posting all of his political rallies there.”Georgetown University, University of Michigan and s3mc.orgDemocrats, in particular, were also likely to mention Detroit.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, SSRS, ”, Howard Stern, Stephen Colbert, “ He’s, Hurricane Milton, “, Jennifer Agiesta, Edward Wu Organizations: CNN, Georgetown University, University of Michigan, Trump, CBS, s3mc.org Democrats, Detroit, Detroit Economic, Hurricane, Democratic National Convention, ABC Locations: California, New York, Aurora , Colorado, Coachella , California, Detroit, Florida

In Michigan, Trade Policies and the Water Crisis Loom Large for VotersGenesee County, Mich., home to Flint and the birthplace of General Motors, has been loyal to the Democratic Party for decades. In and around Flint, voters from both parties described feeling let down by corporations, especially auto companies, and by their political leaders. But interviews with more than 20 people across Genesee County also showed that voters still had doubts about Ms. Harris. I think that she is more so focused I think that she is more so focused on being a personality. Scroll to play video Muted Charles H. Knox Sr. Charles H. Knox Sr.

Persons: Dylan Luna Dylan Luna Ken Snyder Ken Snyder Charles H, Knox Sr, Charles H, Dylan Luna Dylan Luna Meredith Davis Meredith Davis, Ken Snyder Ken Snyder Corie, Michael Aversa Michael Aversa Corie, Foor Meredith Davis Meredith Davis Isabelle Snyder Isabelle Snyder Michael Aversa Michael Aversa Ken Snyder Ken Snyder Charles H, Ken Snyder Ken Snyder Meredith Davis Meredith Davis, Corie, Ken Snyder Ken Snyder Meredith Davis Meredith Davis Charles H, Knox, ”, “ It’s, “, ” “, ” It’s, I’ve, Kamala Harris, Harris, Donald J, Trump, Ken Snyder Ken Snyder Meredith Davis Meredith Davis Michael Aversa Michael Aversa Charles H, Dylan Luna, Dylan Luna Flint Board of Education Dylan Luna, Dylan Luna Flint Board of Education Dylan Luna Flint Board of Education Charles H, It’s, we’ve, ” “ MAGA, MAGA, “ MAGA, ’, Tyonna McIntyre Tyonna McIntyre, Ken Snyder Ken Snyder Michael Aversa Michael Aversa Dylan Luna Dylan Luna Michael Aversa Michael Aversa Meredith Davis Meredith Davis Isabelle Snyder Isabelle Snyder Corie, Michael Aversa Michael Aversa Meredith Davis Meredith Davis, Ken Snyder Ken Snyder Charles H, Michael Aversa Michael Aversa Charles H, “ The, Flint, Art Reyes “, Art Reyes, Bill Bain Bill Bain, Hillary Clinton, Bain, ” Mr, Mandy Christle Mandy Christle, Christle, Isabelle Snyder Isabelle Snyder Meredith Davis Meredith Davis Ken Snyder Ken Snyder Michael Aversa Michael Aversa Corie, Corie Foor Dylan Luna Dylan Luna Charles H, it’s, Dixon, Northerners, ‘, There’s, ” There’s, MaryAnn Pietrzyk, Barack Obama Organizations: General Motors, Democratic Party, “, Flint, Republican, Democratic, Black, Dylan Luna Flint Board of Education, Dylan Luna Flint Board of Education Dylan Luna Flint Board of Education, Trump, Aldi, Kroger, Auto Industry, Biden, “ The Biden, Democrats, Motors, GMC, Republicans, Benz, GM, United Auto Workers, North American Free Trade, Mr, Mason Locations: Michigan, Genesee County, Mich, Flint, ”, America, Genesee, carmaking, Canada, Mexico, American

☆ When campaign and football season collide: Harris and Trump battle for sports fans: From the Politics Desk
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( The Politics Desk | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +9 min

Hey sports fans: Harris and Trump want your voteBy Adam WollnerOctober is a sports fan's paradise. Rebecca Shabad and Peter Alexander report that Harris’ campaign launched ads Friday that will appear on websites dealing with sports news, sports betting, fantasy sports and video games, including DraftKings, Yahoo Sports and IGN. And the Harris campaign said it’s placing ads on sports talk radio and is taking advantage of major NFL, MLB and college football games. The ads end with the tag line: “Kamala is for they/them; President Trump is for you.”These efforts come amid the backdrop of a massive gender gap between the two candidates. The latest national NBC News poll shows Harris leading among women by a 14-point margin (55%-41%), while Trump is ahead with men by 16 points (56%-40%).

Persons: Adam Wollner, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Kristen Welker, ”, Harris, Trump, It’s, Rebecca Shabad, Peter Alexander, Magic Johnson, Ben Stiller, ’ ” Tim Walz, Rich, Jonathan Allen, Allan Smith, Olympia Sonnier, Ben Kamisar, Kamala, Joe Biden, won’t, don’t, Mike Pence, ” Harris, “, Sen, Lindsey Graham, Josh Shapiro, alo, lea Organizations: NBC, White House, Capitol, MLB, NHL, NBA, Yahoo Sports, IGN, “, Minnesota Vikings, NFL, NBC News, Voters, Republicans, House, Fox News, Pennsylvania Democratic Gov Locations: Michigan

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. — Vice President Kamala Harris on Friday continued to steer clear of criticizing President Joe Biden, arguing that vice presidents not denigrating the commander-in-chief is an American tradition. "To be very candid with you, even including Mike Pence, vice presidents are not critical of their presidents. Harris dismissed her critics, including Trump, claiming that "joy" has disappeared from her campaign. NBC News has reached out to the Trump campaign for comment. Both Harris and Trump have been doing targeted media interviews in the final weeks of the campaign.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Harris, Biden, Mike Pence, Donald Trump, Trump, It’s, Christine Romans, “, she’s, Howard Stern’s, ” Harris, ”, Peter Alexander, Rebecca Shabad Organizations: NBC News, Republican, Medicare, Trump, NBC, Fox News, Boys, Univision, Bloomberg News, NBC News ’, Business, CNBC, CBS Locations: GRAND RAPIDS, Mich, American, Grand, Grand Rapids, Washington

☆ Poll: Democrats catch up on election enthusiasm, but two key groups lag behind
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Https | Media-Cldnry.S-Nbcnews.Com Image Upload Newscms Mark-Murray-Circle-Byline-Template.Jpg | Mark Murray | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +1 min

The latest NBC News poll contains this good news for Democrats: They’ve essentially caught up to Republicans on enthusiasm about the upcoming election — after trailing on this measure while President Joe Biden was in the race. Overall, the poll finds 74% of registered voters expressing high interest in the election, registering either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale. By party, 79% of Republicans have high interest, compared with 77% of Democrats. That 2-point deficit for Democrats is an improvement for the party from July’s NBC News poll, when Biden was still in the race. Between 80% and 90% of Black voters said they had high interest in the upcoming election at this point in 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2020.

Persons: They’ve, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Biden Organizations: NBC, Republicans, Democrats, Democratic, Black

Her decision to appear on The Shade Room and other less traditional platforms has left many scratching their heads. But it’s a strategy to reach young, Black voters who are increasingly turning to social media for news. Fifty-two percent of polled adults under 30 said they have a lot or some trust in information that comes from social media. That is most likely what led Harris to The Shade Room, which has more than 29 million followers on Instagram and is known for saucy celebrity gossip and salacious headlines. The Shade Room did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Tim Walz’s, “, ” Jasmine Harris, Walz, Joe Biden, Bill Whitaker, Bret Baier, Alex Cooper’s “, ”, Matt Barnes, Stephen Jackson, Roland Martin, Charlamagne, Justin Carter, ” Matthew Bartlett, Pew, Joe Budden, Stephen A, Trump, Jasmine Harris, ” Kamala Harris, “ I’m Organizations: Democratic, CBS, ’, Fox News, NBA, Trump, Republican, NBC News, Pew Research, Onyx, NBC, Black, The New York Times, Siena College Locations: Black, iHeartRadio

GREEN BAY, Wis. — Vice President Kamala Harris slammed former President Donald Trump on Thursday night, chiding him for calling himself “the father of IVF.”“He refuses continuously to acknowledge the harm he has caused. The crowd heckled and howled at each of the segments, which ended with a Fox News town hall in which Trump took questions from women. "It does get more unbelievable,” one could be heard saying. She did not want to give her name, she said, because she lives in a “divided family” — her husband supports Trump. In the final stretch of the race, survey after survey has shown Harris and Trump neck and neck.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, chiding, “, ” Harris, Trump, Wade, incredulously, Harris ’, ”, Harris, Rallygoer Linda Patzke, Mark Cuban, ’ ” Harris, We’re Organizations: Fox News, ”, Trump, Marquette Law, Milwaukee, U.S . Capitol, Medicaid Locations: GREEN, Wis, Roe, Pittsfield , Wisconsin, Wisconsin, Green

☆ 5 things to know about the mystery $30 million whale moving betting markets toward Trump
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Since the start of October, there's been a notable divergence between the betting markets and the polls. Where do election odds stand in betting markets now? What's going on with the 'Trump whale' in the betting markets? Is the $30 million 'Trump whale' an influence campaign? Because the betting markets are relatively illiquid, a $30 million bet can have a big influence on moving the odds in favor of Trump.

Persons: Harris, —, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, there's, Will Donald Trump, Polymarket, Peter Thiel, ethereum's, Vitalik Buterin, Joe Gebbia, Trump, Kalshi, What's, Michie, Arkham, Adam Cochran, Cochran, Elon Musk, Mitt Romney, Barack Obama Organizations: Trump, Service, Street, Arkham Intelligence, Republican Locations: Polymarket, Crunchbase, Wisconsin , Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada

☆ Safe-haven gold breaks $2,700 per ounce level as uncertainty looms
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold firmed 0.5% to $2,706.76 per ounce by 0220 GMT, adding nearly 2% so far in the week. U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% to $2,722.00. It's just a bull market that shows no signs of exhaustion," said Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader. Spot silver rose 0.5% to $31.92 per ounce and was headed for a weekly gain. Elsewhere, data showed that top metals consumer China's economy expanded 4.6% in the third quarter from a year earlier, slightly beating analysts' expectations.

Persons: Tai Wong, Yahya Sinwar, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump Organizations: U.S ., Treasury, Federal, European Central Bank, Democratic, Republican Locations: New York, U.S, Israel

☆ Here's what Wall Street money managers are doing to prepare their portfolios for their 3 biggest election concerns
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Christine Ji | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

As election day draws near, 400 Wall Street money managers identified their top concerns. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Policy initiatives could have a significant impact on the economy, especially on issues concerning inflation, the housing market, employment, and international trade. Investors can benefit from both parties: Republicans would likely pass investor-friendly tax and energy policy, while Democrats would pass more favorable US-China and trade policy. AdvertisementHere's what Wall Street is worried about this election cycle and how top money managers are preparing their portfolios for November.

Persons: —, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, PGIM, Wall, Kara Murphy, –, isn't, Murphy, Trump, Harris, we've Organizations: Service, Republican, White House, Congress, Investors, Kestra Investment Management, Social Security, Biden, Research, Senate, Democrat Locations: China, Latin America, Southeast Asia, deglobalization

☆ Biden administration unaware of Trump-Putin calls, but top adviser says it ‘would raise red flags’ if true
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Betsy Klein | Kylie Atwood | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

“I do not know if that’s true or not,” Biden national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters aboard Air Force One Thursday when asked about the calls. “Obviously,” Sullivan added, “That would raise red flags if it were true.”Asked by CNN whether the administration was trying to ascertain more details about those calls, the White House declined to provide specific information. Trump has denied having multiple calls with Putin, calling it “absolutely wrong” in an interview on Newsmax last week. Days later at the Chicago Economic Club, he declined to comment on whether the Putin calls had taken place, but said it would have been a “smart thing” if he had. The Harris campaign has seized on the reporting as it seeks to cast Trump as a friend to authoritarian figures.

Persons: Biden, Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, Trump, Bob Woodward, “, ”, Jake Sullivan, ” Sullivan, Sullivan, Putin, Harris, Kamala Harris, Tim Walz Organizations: CNN, ” Biden, Air Force, Newsmax, Chicago Economic Club Locations: Minnesota

☆ Pro-Trump forces flood airwaves with ads attacking Harris over past transgender stances
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Steve Contorno | David Wright | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +12 min

The Trump campaign put nearly $14 million behind the ad in the first two weeks of the month. The Trump campaign disputed the report. As pro-Trump advertisers have put more money behind ads attacking transgender policies, economic messaging has also been a consistent, though shifting, point of emphasis. Harris’ campaign did not respond to a request for comment. President Trump is for you.”Democrats in the presidential race have offered no defensive response.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, It’s, CNN’s KFile, Harris, “, ”, Bret Baier, Trump, –, ” Trump, Kamala, Harris ’, Wednesday’s Fox, Terry Schilling, Andy Beshear, Beshear, Glenn Youngkin, Rodrigo Heng, Lehtinen, ” “, ” Heng, wouldn’t, Chris LaCivita, Miriam Adelson –, MAGA, Colin Allred – who’s, Sen, Ted Cruz, Texas –, Ohio Sen, Sherrod Brown, DeWine, Allred, Brown, Schilling, ” Schilling, Heng, Joe Biden, Jennifer Agiesta, Alayna Treene, Kate Sullivan, Kristen Holmes Organizations: CNN, Republicans, Trump, Fox News, New York Times, of Prisons, Fox, Democratic Gov, Republican Gov, statehouse, Virginians, National Center for Transgender Equality, “, Gallup, Democratic Party, ”, Preserve America, Badger State, PAC, Democratic, GOP, White Locations: Washington, Kentucky, Virginia, Wisconsin, Texas, Ohio

☆ Fact check: Debunking Trump’s October lying spree about immigration
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Daniel Dale | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +23 min

Harris’ approach to the border: Trump falsely claimed of Harris: “She was saying the other day, ‘Yes, oh yes, we want to have a border.’ The first time she ever said it. The legal status of immigrants in Springfield: Trump falsely claimed, “They just dropped 30,000 illegal aliens in Springfield, Ohio.”This is false in more than one way. And while there is no official tally of the number of immigrants in Springfield, Trump’s “30,000” figure exceeds local estimates. More about immigrants in Springfield: Trump claimed that immigrants in Springfield are on “probation,” and he added, “Probation is for prisoners.” This is false in two ways. The word “caravan”: Talking about migrant caravans, Trump repeated his false claim that he invented the term: “The caravan.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris ’, Harris, Trump, Joe Biden, ”, ” Biden, Alejandro Mayorkas, Biden, ” Harris, didn’t, “, ‘, it’s, –, Kamala Harris, It’s, Hurricane Helene, Hurricane Milton, ” James Hathaway, that’s, they’re, “ That’s, Ohio Sen, JD Vance, Trump’s, Mike DeWine, Vance, Chris Cook, ” Roberto Briceño, ” Trump, ” Helen Fair, hasn’t, Mike Coffman, ” Coffman, They’ve, Honduras –, Barack Obama, Obama’s, Harris “, Aaron Reichlin Organizations: Washington CNN, White, Homeland, Trump, Biden, Department of Homeland Security, ICE, Immigration, Customs, FEMA, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Congress, House Republicans, Refugee, Asylum, University of Michigan, UN, YES, ” Republican Ohio Gov, New York Times, US, “, CNN, Venezuelan, of, . Migrants, Democratic, Institute for Crime & Justice, Research, Birkbeck , University of London, Republican Aurora, Central, Customs Enforcement, El Salvador, Homeland Security, American Immigration Council, ICE hasn’t Locations: El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, United States, Texas, Arizona, Afghanistan, ”, That’s, Mexico, U.S, Springfield , Ohio, Univision, Springfield, Ohio, “, Cuba, Vietnam, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Lebanon, Venezuela, Caracas, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Republic of Congo, United Kingdom, Colorado, Venezuelan, Aurora, America

☆ Opinion | The 21 Slivers of America That Could Decide the Election
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Patrick Ruffini | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +7 min

Opinion Guest Essay The 21 Slivers of America That Could Decide the Election Sebastian Siadecki for The New York TimesIn almost every presidential battleground state, polling suggests something close to a dead heat between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. For Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump, each could be a crucial building block in a winning swing-state coalition. In 2016, with Mr. Trump in the race, these areas began to march to national trends: Rural areas trended Republican, while Milwaukee’s well-off, close-in suburbs zoomed left. Still, loyalties remain potent in Wisconsin, from Democratic-leaning, ancestrally Scandinavian voters in the state’s rural west to middle-class suburban Republicans outside Milwaukee. Mr. Trump lost Nash County by just 0.2 points in 2020 and Wilson County by three points.

Persons: Sebastian Siadecki, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump ., Harris, Trump, Nate Silver’s, Joe Biden, Badger State . Arizona Battlegrounds, Mark Kelly, Biden, Trump’s, Patrick Ruffini Organizations: The New York Times, Pennsylvania, Keystone, Philadelphia, Democratic, Milwaukee —, Washington, Mr, Republican, Republicans, Milwaukee, Badger State, Senate, Northampton, “ Party of, Populist Coalition Locations: America, Pennsylvania, Appalachia, Philadelphia, Philadelphia’s, . Wisconsin, Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Milwaukee — Waukesha, Ozaukee, Badger, Badger State . Arizona, Arizona, Phoenix, Florida and Texas, . North Carolina, North Carolina, Southern, Nash, Rocky, Wilson, Wilson County, Nash County, Northampton, Erie, Bethlehem, Georgia, Brown County, Green Bay, Outagamie County, Appleton, Winnebago County, Oshkosh, Maricopa County

☆ What an afternoon in 2 grocery store parking lots in Pennsylvania reveals about the election
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Alice Tecotzky | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

I spoke to voters and a mayor in Northampton, one of two bellwether counties in Pennsylvania. The mayor told me that politics are local — and the election will likely come down to grocery bills. Both Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump were in Pennsylvania on the same Monday, courting voters at a rally and town hall respectively. There was 46-year-old Michelle Kerns, who said she doesn't think Harris gets enough credit for easing inflation. I heard many iterations of "I'm not following the election" or "I'm sick of talking about it" on Monday afternoon.

Persons: —, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Trump, Salvatore J, Panto, he's, Harris, Alice Tecotzky, Ann Hess, Hess, Vivian M, Michelle Kerns, Kerns, Daryl Thompson, Bob George, Beer, Edward Pyatt, Pyatt, George, didn't, I'm Organizations: Service, Democratic, Walmart, Wall Street Journal, Trump, Easton Locations: Northampton, Pennsylvania, Forks, Palmer, Pennsylvania —, Easton, Bethlehem, Northampton County, Kamala, Forks Township, Palmer Township

Vice President Kamala Harris will make campaign stops in Milwaukee, La Crosse and Green Bay, Wisconsin on Thursday as she continues to campaign across Blue Wall states, according to a campaign official. The vice president will then travel to La Crosse where she will hold a rally at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse in an effort to engage young voters. Harris will wrap up her day with a rally in Green Bay, alongside Wisconsin leaders. Trump won the presidency in 2016 by stunning Democrat Hillary Clinton to win all three states by a combined margin of about 80,000 votes. President Joe Biden won back the White House in 2020 by recapturing all three states by a combined margin of around 260,000 votes.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Harris, Harris ’, Donald Trump –, Trump, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Read, CNN’s Ronald Brownstein Organizations: Blue Wall, University of Wisconsin -, University of Wisconsin, Wisconsin, White House Locations: Milwaukee, La Crosse, Green Bay , Wisconsin, University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee, Green Bay, Badger, Wisconsin , Michigan, Pennsylvania

Vice President Kamala Harris still has a wide lead over former President Donald Trump among Black voters in battleground states, according to a new poll, which shows a key slice of undecided Black voters still poised to make a decision about the presidential election. The findings, from a Howard University Initiative on Public Opinion poll of 981 likely Black voters in battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — show that 84% of likely Black voters will support Harris in November and 8% say they’ll support Trump. While an overwhelming majority of Black voters overall plan to support Harris, the data shows a small shift among independents from a month ago. Black voters support Harris by large margins across all age groups, but her margin among young voters (63 points) is much smaller than her margin among older voters (82 points). Among undecided Black voters, 19% said the economy is the most important issue to their vote, followed by inflation/cost of living (14%).

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump Organizations: Black, Howard University Initiative, Public, Trump, Republicans, Harris, Howard Initiative Locations: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada , North Carolina , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona , Georgia

The anxiety abated for a bit when Vice President Kamala Harris replaced him on the ticket and her poll numbers spiked. With Harris' numbers stagnant now for weeks, many Democrats are once again fretting that the election is slipping away and that Donald Trump may yet regain power. Harris appears to be OK with the collective jitters, recognizing that if Democrats fear they might lose, they're more apt to show up at the polls and help her win. Polling shows that neither Harris nor Trump has built a lead outside the margin of error. Claims that Harris is an underdog amount to “a liberal plot to get us overconfident on the Trump side,” he added.

Persons: Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Harris, Donald Trump, Trump, —, can’t, That’s, “ She’s, she’s, Hillary Clinton, ”, John McLaughlin, “, She’s, ” Harris, Biden, “ You’ve, you’ve, ” David Plouffe, Barack Obama, “ Kamala Harris, Tim Walz, strode, — Obama, — Clinton, Ellen DeGeneres, “ Hamilton, Lin, Manuel Miranda Organizations: WASHINGTON, Trump, Democratic, Fox News, IGN Locations: West Palm Beach , Florida, Greenville , North Carolina, Detroit, Erie , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Greenville, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Seattle

☆ Hedge fund manager Daniel Loeb believes Trump's chances are increasing and he's betting accordingly
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Third Point's Daniel Loeb believes the odds are rising that former President Donald Trump will win the U.S. presidency this November over Vice President Kamala Harris and the influential hedge fund manager is increasing positions that would benefit under a Republican administration and Congress. But Loeb in his quarterly missive said he was increasing both "stock and option purchases" to bet on the Trump win scenario. Loeb is not alone on Wall Street in making those bets with JPMorgan most recently highlighting gains in bank stocks and the U.S. dollar as signs more investors see a Republican win. The fund gained 4% last quarter, according to the letter, also trailing the market. But he sees the improvement in market breadth that began in the third quarter continuing, especially under a Republican administration.

Persons: Point's Daniel Loeb, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, ", Loeb, Harris, missive, Biden, CNBC's Scott Wapner Organizations: U.S, Republican, CNBC, Biden, NBC, Trump, JPMorgan Locations: U.S, Danish

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