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Search resuls for: "FiveThirtyEight"


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☆ Trump says he's 'pleased' to see Vivek Ramaswamy was even with Pence and ahead of Haley in a recent poll
  + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
The former president said he was "pleased" to see entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy doing so well. A political newcomer, Ramaswamy performed very well in a recent poll. "I am pleased to see that Vivek Ramaswamy is doing so well in the most recent Republican Primary Poll, CBS YouGov," Trump wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social. RealClearPolitics' more raw average has Ramaswamy in fifth behind DeSantis, Pence, and Haley respectively. In response to Trump's praise, Ramaswamy senior adviser Tricia McLaughlin told Insider, "We're 10 weeks in and just getting warmed up."
☆ Ron DeSantis' month from hell just got even worse thanks to Disney's legal team
  + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | Warren Rojas | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
Already this month, DeSantis has seen more fellow Florida Republicans back Trump instead of him. April was supposed to be the crescendo for the Florida governor before his widely expected presidential announcement. Instead, DeSantis has been pummeled on all sides, including by many of his fellow Florida Republicans. "Floridians want him focused on Florida," Rep. Greg Steube, yet another Florida Republican who endorsed Trump, told Politico, "which is the job they elected him to do." Last month, DeSantis began to punch back at Trump in a feisty Piers Morgan interview where he stressed that he was a "winner."
☆ Anthony Richardson: NFL Draft prospect who says he is 'not from Earth'
  + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Ben Morse | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
CNN —Heading into the NFL Draft, there’s always one prospect coming out of college who everyone becomes infatuated with, despite not being the finished article. This year’s golden boy is Anthony Richardson and, in his unique case, he’s impressed at every stage of the process. Richardson ran the fastest 40-yard dash time of all quarterbacks, as well as jumping the highest and furthest at the Combine. With potentially nine picks in the opening 12 being held by quarterback-needy teams, Richardson could be finding a new home anywhere across the league. David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire/Getty ImagesIt means that Richardson has just 13 career college starts to his name entering the draft.
☆ Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight Founder, Expects to Depart ABC News Amid Layoffs
  + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Livia Albeck-Ripka | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: 1 min
Nate Silver, the founder and editor of the data-driven news site FiveThirtyEight, said on Tuesday that he expected to leave ABC News as layoffs rattle its parent organization, the Walt Disney Company. Mr. Silver, who started FiveThirtyEight in 2008, and was affiliated with The New York Times from 2010 to 2013, said on Twitter that the Disney layoffs had “substantially impacted” the site. “I am sad and disappointed to a degree that’s kind of hard to express right now. We’ve been at Disney almost 10 years,” he wrote. “My contract is up soon and I expect that I’ll be leaving at the end of it.”Mr. Silver noted that he had begun having conversations about other opportunities, because he had been worried about “an outcome like this.”
☆ As DeSantis stumbles, anti-Trump Republicans fear a rerun in 2024 campaign
  + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Tim Reid Alexandra Ulmer Nathan Layne | Tim Reid | Alexandra Ulmer | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
[1/2] Florida Governor Ron DeSantis speaks at the 2023 NHGOP Amos Tuck Dinner in Manchester, New Hampshire, U.S., April 14, 2023. Seemingly entrenched in culture wars, Florida governor DeSantis risks being overshadowed by Trump's fundraising, improving polling numbers and endorsements by lawmakers, anti-Trump donors say. Other polls of Republicans alone show Trump has surged into a commanding lead over DeSantis in recent weeks. History shows that early endorsements by elected party officials give candidates momentum and can be predictive of who wins a presidential nomination. These culture war appeals to Trump's Republican base so far do not appear to be working.
☆ DeSantis megadonors revolt in private chat, saying if they wanted a MAGA candidate they 'would donate to Donald Trump', report says
  + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Joshua Zitser | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
Ron DeSantis donors criticized him in a private chat. Rolling Stone obtained screenshots of the group chat between the GOP megadonors. Ron DeSantis donors raged together in a private chat about the Florida governor's presidential prospects. Rolling Stone gained access to screenshots of a group chat between several DeSantis donors, some of whom it said had given large sums to the governor. Other donors wrote that they wanted DeSantis to hit back harder at Trump, with one describing him as a "damn wimp," per Rolling Stone.
☆ Mike Pompeo announces he is not running for president in 2024 after criticizing Trump last month
  + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Azmi Haroun | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is not running for president in 2024, per ABC News. Pompeo said that he would have managed the country's debt better than Trump. According to ABC News, Pompeo announced that he would not be running for president on Bret Baier's Fox News show on Friday. On March 5, Pompeo appeared on Fox News Sunday and joked that "President Pompeo" would have managed the country's debt better than Trump: "$6 trillion more in debt. Pompeo, despite his stature as a former Secretary of State and longtime GOP power player, has barely registered in polling.
☆ Tim Scott is the most intriguing GOP presidential hopeful most Republicans haven't heard of
  + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | Warren Rojas | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +8 min
South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott is far from well-known by Republican voters. But if he runs for president, Scott would be well positioned to break out if either Trump or DeSantis falter. "I hope he is considering jumping into the race," Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst recently told Insider while on her way back to her Senate office. But more than just his colleagues, Republican voters may also be just as effusive. It's difficult to find polling on Scott's national favorability, but a recent Monmouth University poll of self-identified Republican voters showed significant promise.
☆ N.C.A.A. Bracket Picks: Where Fans and Experts Diverge
  + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Josh Katz | Alice Fang | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +8 min
One avenue is examining the differences between the forecasts of mathematical models and the collective choices of fans. For example, fans are much more likely to have Kansas and Alabama in the Final Four than the experts. The table below shows an aggregate view of the difference between the public’s picks and those of forecasting models. But if you pick the same teams as everyone else, your bracket will look the same, too, something you should consider. There is no guarantee that this approach will work, of course, and part of the draw of the N.C.A.A.
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☆ Americans are pessimistic. With 2024 looming, Biden can't afford to squander the State of the Union.
  + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
His State of the Union address will likely highlight his administration's wins thus far. Biden has some real wins to tout — but he's running out of timeTonight, Biden will have the best opportunity of the year to bridge this divide. True, fewer Americans are watching State of the Union addresses than in the past. Presidents are supposed to say the state of the union is strong, while the opposition party casts a more dour outlook. Even as Americans are largely satisfied with their quality of life, they're still pessimistic about the general direction of the country.
☆ Democrats sent by Kamala Harris' advisors to praise her actually confided to the New York Times that they'd 'lost hope in her'
  + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Grace Eliza Goodwin | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +1 min
High-ranking Democrats confided in the New York Times that they've lost hope in Kamala Harris. Harris' aides expected the Democratic sources to speak well of her to the Times, but they didn't. The sources told the Times they don't believe Harris has what it takes to be a leader of the party. "Even some Democrats whom her own advisers referred reporters to for supportive quotes confided privately that they had lost hope in her," the Times reported as part of an article on the party's confidence in Harris published on Monday. Yet, they told the Times that they've started to doubt Harris' ability to be a potential future leader of the Democratic party.
☆ ‘It’s Time to Finish the Job,’ Biden Tells Union Workers as He Starts ’24 Race
  + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Peter Baker | Katie Glueck | Shane Goldmacher | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +12 min
“Around the country, MAGA extremists are lining up to take on those bedrock freedoms,” Mr. Biden said, using Mr. Trump’s Make America Great Again slogan to describe the former president’s allies. While he had repeatedly and consistently said he intended to run, Mr. Biden stoked renewed speculation by delaying his kickoff for months. Mr. Biden tapped Julie Chávez Rodríguez, a senior White House adviser and granddaughter of the iconic labor leader Cesar Chávez, as his campaign manager. But the operation is expected to be overseen from the White House by top presidential aides. While polls show that most Democrats have favorable opinions about Mr. Biden, a majority of them would still rather he not run again.
☆ House speaker chaos signals Donald Trump’s shrinking influence
  + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Nicole Gaudiano | Warren Rojas | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +7 min
Trump's allies repeatedly rejected Kevin McCarthy as House speaker, displaying his power's limits. A week of House speaker chaos revealed one thing about Donald Trump: He can't get his MAGA house in order. The drama started on Tuesday, and it wasn't until Friday that McCarthy managed to make headway in flipping members' votes. "The president needs to tell Kevin McCarthy that, 'Sir, you do not have the votes, and it's time to withdraw.'" House members who are responding to the MAGA base have no reason to fear Trump on this, he said.
☆ Opinion | Vaccines, Inflation, Abortion: 2022 in Charts
  + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Steven Rattner | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +16 min
By the end of 2022, 23 percent of American women resided in states with effective bans on abortion. June 2022 March 2022 Dec. 2021 Sept. 2022 Dec. 2022 Fed Funds Rate 6% 5 4 3 2 1 2022 2023 2025 2024 Longer run Unemployment 5% 4 3 2 1 2022 2023 2025 2024 Longer run G.D.P. Growth 4% 3 2 1 2022 2023 2025 2024 Longer run Core Inflation 5% 4 3 2 1 2022 2023 2025 2024 Sept. 2022 June 2022 March 2022 Dec. 2021 Dec. 2022 Fed Funds Rate G.D.P. Growth 4% 6% 5 3 4 3 2 2 1 1 2022 2023 2025 2022 2023 2025 2024 2024 Longer run Longer run Core Inflation Unemployment 5% 5% 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 2022 2023 2025 2022 2023 2025 2024 2024 Longer run Source: Federal Open Market CommitteeThe sustained period of high inflation left the Fed playing catch-up, as it had initially believed that the surge would prove transitory. 150 100 Xi Jinping addresses in 2017 & 2022 50 1982-2012 Economy Military Market Technology Reform Security Source: Capital EconomicsThen there was China: Our biggest source of imported goods became ever more clearly our biggest strategic adversary.
☆ A Partisan Thumbs Down for Sinema’s Verity
  + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( John Fund | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +1 min
Kyrsten Sinema didn’t always seem like a moderate. Now she has left the Democratic Party to become an independent, complaining that “payback against the opposition party has replaced thoughtful legislation.”Yet ideologically she hasn’t changed much. FiveThirtyEight.com notes that she has voted with President Biden 93% of the time. Where she departs from today’s Democratic Party is over its intolerant domination by progressives. She said progressives had caught “the dread disease” of “identity politics” and wrapped themselves in the “mantle of victimhood.”
☆ Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema becomes a soulless independent
  + stars: | 2022-12-10 | by ( Max Burns | Max Burns Is A Democratic Strategist | Founder Of Third Degree Strategies. Find Him On Twitter | ) www.nbcnews.com   time to read: +5 min
Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s announcement Friday morning that she was abandoning the Democratic Party to become an independent may require Democrats to modify their catchphrase. Her desperate leap out of the Democratic Party will someday make a compelling story for her book. In response, the Arizona Democratic Party took the serious step of censuring Sinema for her behavior. She’ll almost certainly need to fend off that challenge without the institutional Democratic Party resources she would otherwise have enjoyed. Her desperate leap out of the Democratic Party will someday make a compelling story for her book.
☆ Top Republicans are slamming Trump and plotting to get rid of him after the GOP's disappointing midterm results
  + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Tom Porter | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
Some Republicans have turned against Donald Trump after the midterm elections. They blame Trump and his candidates for the GOP's poor results last Tuesday. But in the wake on the party's disappointing showing in the midterm elections last Tuesday, his reputation as a political winner is badly damaged. An increasing number of party figures, The Post reported, were actively working to oppose Trump by directing their donations elsewhere. Some Republicans believe that Tuesday's results indicate that an even more crushing defeat could be in store for the GOP in 2024 if Trump is selected as the GOP's candidate.
☆ Results: Democrat Hillary Scholten defeated Trump-backed John Gibbs, who ousted a pro-impeachment Republican, in Michigan's 3rd Congressional District election
  + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | Katie Balevic | Nov | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
Democrat Hillary Scholten faced off against Republican John Gibbs in Michigan's 3rd District. Gibbs ousted incumbent Rep. Peter Meijer in a primary that hinged on Meijer's vote to impeach Trump. Democrat Hillary Scholten defeated Republican John Gibbs in a race overshadowed by former President Donald Trump and the remnants of a contentious GOP primary in Michigan's 3rd Congressional District. Scholten, a former Department of Justice attorney, has portrayed herself as a consensus-seeking Democrat who would rein in her party's spending plans. A state commission grappled with the loss of a seat by forcing the 3rd District to absorb much of an old seat, per FiveThirtyEight.
☆ Oz's late-campaign push for bipartisanship draws howls of hypocrisy from Democrats
  + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Https | Media-Cldnry.S-Nbcnews.Com Image Upload Newscms | Allan Smith | ) www.nbcnews.com   time to read: +6 min
“We’ve got to unite,” Oz said at a rally Friday in Wexford, a suburb north of Pittsburgh. Democrats see his message as blatant hypocrisy considering he is backed by former President Donald Trump and has campaigned with him. “Uhhhh will he refuse to campaign with Mastriano + Trump this weekend then?? He has mostly kept Mastriano at arm’s length while rarely mentioning Trump, instead focusing on crime, inflation and undocumented immigration. “As much as I loved Trump as president, he’s pushed the other party so far away.”
☆ Live results: Sharice Davids vs. Amanda Adkins: Kansas' 3rd District US House election
  + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | Talia Lakritz | Nov | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids faces off against Republican Amanda Adkins for Kansas' 3rd District. (1 District) Chevron icon It indicates an expandable section or menu, or sometimes previous / next navigation options. Adkins has hammered Davids over inflation and her vote for Democrats' COVID rescue plan and the Inflation Reduction Act. Kansas' 3rd District now juts out further past the Kansas City suburbs, giving it a much more rural feel. Adkins has raised $3.2 million, spent $2.3 million, and has about $932,000 remaining, as of September 30.
☆ Live Results: Democrat Hillary Scholten takes on Trump-backed John Gibbs, who ousted a pro-impeachment Republican, in Michigan's 3rd Congressional District election
  + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | Katie Balevic | Nov | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
Democrat Hillary Scholten is facing off against Republican John Gibbs in Michigan's 3rd District. Gibbs ousted incumbent Rep. Peter Meijer in a primary that hinged on Meijer's vote to impeach Trump. Democrat Hillary Scholten takes on Republican John Gibbs in a race overshadowed by former President Donald Trump and the remnants of a contentious GOP primary in Michigan's 3rd Congressional District. A state commission grappled with the loss of a seat by forcing the 3rd District to absorb much of an old seat, per FiveThirtyEight. The money raceAccording to OpenSecrets, Scholten has raised $2.9 million, spent $2 million, and has $959,333 on hand, as of September 30.
☆ Democrat Josh Shapiro wins Pennsylvania governor's race, NBC News projects
  + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Jack Stebbins | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
(C) Democratic candidate for Governor Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro poses with supporters following a joint rally with Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate John Fetterman at Norris Park on October 15, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Josh Shapiro won the Pennsylvania governor's race, defeating Republican Doug Mastriano and keeping the swing-state office in Democratic hands, NBC News projected. Shapiro led Mastriano by about 11 percentage points with roughly 64% of the vote in, according to NBC. The Democrat Shapiro has served as Pennsylvania's attorney general since 2017 and was previously a state representative. Act 77 is the voting law that allows for no-excuse mail-in voting in Pennsylvania.
☆ A lawyer for Donald Trump pressured Ron DeSantis not to run for president in 2024: 'Stay in Florida'
  + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Tom Porter | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Alina Habba, a lawyer for Donald Trump, warned Ron DeSantis against a 2024 bid. "DeSantis is DeSantis because of Trump," Habba said, telling him to "stay in Florida." DeSantis is considered Trump's leading rival for the 2024 GOP nomination. He is up for re-election as Florida governor in Tuesday's midterms, and has a significant lead in most polls, per the data website FiveThirtyEight. During his stint as Florida governor he has become the only Republican whose popularity rivaled Trump's.
☆ The stock market will enter its best performing environment if Republicans take control of Congress in midterm elections
  + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
The stock market could be poised for big upside ahead if Republicans win Congress in today's midterm election. "The very best scenario for stocks is a Democratic President and a Republican-controlled Congress," Carson Group's Ryan Detrick said. "The very best scenario for stocks is a Democratic President and a Republican-controlled Congress. Under a Democratic president, the S&P 500 saw average annual returns of 16.2% when Republicans controlled both chambers on Congress. Regardless of Tuesday's election results, the stock market has plenty of more favorable seasonals going for it into year-end, according to Detrick.
☆ Trump aides scrambled to stop him announcing his presidential candidacy on the eve of the midterms and upending the election: Report
  + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Tom Porter | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Trump wanted to announce a 2024 bid on Monday, right before midterm voting, per The Washington Post. Aides successfully persuaded him not to, fearing it'd upend the election, its report said. Trump is now expected to announce a 2024 bid on November 15. Other aides, it reported, wanted Trump to go ahead. (Axios last week reported that Nov. 14 would be the date when Trump would likely announce his candidacy.)
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