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☆ Be careful what you wish for: The S&P 500 typically falls after the first rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-20 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

On average, the S & P 500 is usually up 2% 65 days before the first cut from the central bank following a hiking cycle, according to data from Strategas. But it's usually down by 1.5% 65 days after that initial rate reduction, implying that stocks may not be off to the races after the big announcement. In 1974, for example, the S & P 500 was down more than 8% in the 65 days prior and off by more than 25% in the same period following the cut. But in 1989, the broad index was up more than 12% in the 65 days preceding the rate reduction and still higher by more than 9% in the period after. Fed funds futures indicate a chance of at least one rate cut as early as September, with the potential for a second at the last meeting of the year in December, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool .

Persons: Ryan Grabinski, Chris Zaccarelli, Grabinski Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Independent

☆ The Fed is 'playing with fire' by not cutting rates, says creator of 'Sahm Rule' recession indicator
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Economist Claudia Sahm has shown that when the unemployment rate's three-month average is half a percentage point higher than its 12-month low, the economy is in recession. "My baseline is not recession," Sahm said. "The worst possible outcome at this point is for the Fed to cause an unnecessary recession," she added. That's the highest the Sahm reading has been on an ascending basis since the early days of the Covid pandemic. The value essentially represents the percentage point difference from the three-month unemployment rate average compared to its 12-month low, which in this case is 3.5%.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, Sahm, I'm, Jerome Powell Organizations: Exchange, CNBC, Federal, Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Committee

☆ May retail sales rise 0.1%, weaker than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A worker assists with check-out at a Costco store in Teterboro, New Jersey, US, on Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2024. Retail spending was weaker than expected in May as consumers continued to wrestle with stubbornly higher levels of inflation. Sales rose just 0.1% on the month, one-tenth of a percentage point below the Dow Jones estimate, according to a Commerce Department report Tuesday that is adjusted for seasonality but not inflation. On a year-over-year basis, sales rose 2.3%. The sales number was worse when excluding autos, with a decline of 0.1% against the estimate for a 0.2% increase.

Persons: Dow Jones, Patrick Harker Organizations: Costco, Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Fed, Philadelphia Fed Locations: Teterboro , New Jersey, US

☆ Oil prices hold firm, on pace for weekly gain, as inflation appears to ease in U.S.
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-13 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices have gained about 4% this week, recovering from a sell-off last week on an OPEC+ plan to increase production in the fourth quarter. Oil market analysts generally viewed the sell-off as an overreaction. Lower interest rates typically boost economic growth and lift crude oil demand. The U.S. reported a surprise oil stockpile build of 3.7 million barrels, whereas analysts had expected inventories would fall. A growing number of analysts see the oil market tightening at least through the third quarter before loosening in 2025.

Persons: Tamas Varga, " Varga, Peter Low Organizations: Fed, Labor Department, U.S Locations: U.S, OPEC

☆ The Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady — here's what that means for your money
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Jessica Dickler | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that it will leave interest rates unchanged. The central bank projected it would cut interest rates once in 2024, down from an estimate of three in March. For consumers already strained by the high cost of living, there is an added toll from persistently high borrowing costs. The Fed responded with a series of interest rate hikes that took its benchmark rate to the highest level in decades. The spike in interest rates caused most consumer borrowing costs to skyrocket, and now, more Americans are falling behind on their payments.

Persons: Greg McBride, that's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Finance, U.S

☆ Sallie Mae hikes yield on 1-year CDs as Fed stays in rate policy holding pattern
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Last week, Sallie Mae boosted the annual percentage yield for its 12-month CD by 10 basis points, or 0.10% week over week, to 5.15%. Certificate of deposit rates have come a long way since the Fed started raising interest rates in March 2022. The average online bank APY has gone up by 4.14 percentage points to 4.79% since then, Wells Fargo analyst Michael Kaye said in a note Friday. Since banks generally follow the fed funds rate, interest rates on CDs and savings accounts are expected to fall in turn. "Broadly we still expect online bank deposit rates to decline," BTIG's Caintic said.

Persons: Sallie Mae, we're, Vincent Caintic, Wells Fargo, Sallie Mae's, APY, Wells, Michael Kaye, BTIG's Caintic, Morgan Stanley, BOK Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, New York Community Bancorp, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, FDIC, Bank, Bank of America Locations: Wells, Wells Fargo, company's

☆ Here's what investors expect from the stock market after the Fed decision Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-11 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Broadly speaking, market observers expect that investors have already priced in how the Fed may proceed with interest rates. So long as this week's Fed meeting sticks to the consensus view, many observers expect stocks will breathe a sigh of relief. "This is one of the busiest of the days on Wednesday," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B.Riley Financial. Possibility for surprise Of course, the Fed meeting still has the potential to surprise investors. ET Wednesday while the Fed meeting wraps up at 2:00 p.m. and Powell's press conference starts a half hour later.

Persons: shrugging, Hogan, Dave Sekera, it's, Riley's Hogan, ChairJerome Powell, Powell, hasn't, Brian Nick, Nick, —, I'd, Jeff Klingelhofer, Klingelhofer, Joshua Roberts Organizations: Federal Reserve, B.Riley, Morningstar, Fed, Macro, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Nvidia, Thornburg Investment Management, Federal Locations: U.S, Washington ,

☆ What to expect from the housing market in the second half of 2024, according to real estate experts
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-10 | by ( Ana Teresa Solá | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

While the market is seeing more listings, the boost in supply is not enough to attract buyers, according to Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. "Mortgage rates are down a bit from May highs, but that hasn't spurred a surge of competition among buyers in the housing market," Divounguy said. Many experts believe the Federal Reserve will likely hold interest rates in the upcoming board meeting on June 12. However, the National Association of Realtors forecast a potential interest rate cut by the fall of this year, according to Jessica Lautz, the NAR's deputy chief economist. 'It's hard to foresee prices really cooling'While the housing market has slowed in terms of the number of transactions, prices haven't soften despite broader expectations, Ostrowski explained.

Persons: Orphe Divounguy, Realtor.com, Kelman, Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae, Duncan, Freddie Mac, hasn't, Divounguy, Jessica Lautz, Ostrowski Organizations: Realtor.com, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Reserve, National Association of Realtors Locations: U.S

☆ Stock market today: US stocks edge lower ahead of Apple event, economic data
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-10 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks fell as bond yields increased ahead of a big week of updates for the market. Investors are eyeing Apple's WWDC event, a Fed meeting, and key inflation reports this week. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged but officials will offer more insight into future moves. AdvertisementUS stocks edged lower while bond yields rose ahead of a big week for the market. Investors will have to navigate Apple's WWDC event, a Federal Reserve meeting, and multiple inflation reports this week, all of which could shake up stock prices.

Persons: —, David Morrison Organizations: Service, Investors, Reserve, CPI, Fed, Trade Nation

☆ Stock futures are little changed as investors gear up for start of Fed policy meeting: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-10 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Stock futures are near flat Monday night as investors await the start of June's Federal Reserve policy meeting. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both also traded near their flatlines. This comes as traders prepare for the two-day Fed policy meeting commencing Tuesday. The meeting will conclude on Wednesday with an interest rate policy decision and a subsequent press conference featuring Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Fed funds futures were indicating virtually no chance of a cut at this week's meeting, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

Persons: Jerome Powell, CME's, We've, Zachary Hill Organizations: June's Federal, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, Horizon Investments, Oracle

☆ The Fed's rate decision and May inflation data will be key tests for the stock market next week
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-07 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The next rate decision from the Federal Reserve coupled with May inflation data, both on Wednesday, will play key roles in how stocks perform next week — quite probably lending added volatility to an already jittery market. The Fed's rate decision All eyes are on the Fed next week and its rate decision that's set to come down at 2 p.m. Wednesday. But investors have tempered expectations since then amid a spate of stubborn inflation data. That makes May's consumer price index report due out before the bell Wednesday another key focal point for investors. Economists polled by Dow Jones are bracing for the consumer price index to rise 3.4% year over year and 0.1% on a monthly basis.

Persons: nonfarm, Kathryn Kaminski, Scott Wren, they've, it's, Tony Roth, Envestnet's Dana D'Auria, D'Auria, Dow Jones, Wells, Wren, John Belton, Apple, Jerome Powell, John Wiley Friday Organizations: Federal, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, GameStop, Dow, AlphaSimplex Group, Fed, Federal Open Market, European Central Bank, European Union, Wells Fargo Investment, Wilmington Trust's, CPI, Apple's Worldwide, Broadcom, Dave, Treasury, Signet Jewelers, University of Michigan Locations: Wells Fargo, Cupertino , California

☆ Stock futures are little changed as investors brace for May jobs report: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-06 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. stock futures opened little changed on Thursday as investors geared up for Friday morning's nonfarm payrolls report. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched higher by 16 points, or 0.04%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures hovered near the flatline. The S&P 500 edged lower by 0.02%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.09%. The Dow has a 0.52% gain, while the S&P 500 is higher by 1.43% and the Nasdaq is on pace for a 2.62% advance.

Persons: nonfarm, Dow, Dow Jones, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Federal Reserve, Ned Davis Research, European Central Bank, Fed Locations: U.S, it's

☆ Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway owns 3% of the entire T-bill market, JPMorgan estimates
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-02 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Berkshire Hathaway 's purchase of Treasury bills has been so aggressive that the Warren Buffett-controlled conglomerate now owns 3% of the entire bill market, according to JPMorgan. With short-term rates topping 5%, his massive cash pile, which had been an area of concern when rates were near zero, is now earning Berkshire a substantial return. The investment legend recently said he finds cash attractive compared to other assets, especially stocks. Berkshire's cash position may top $200 billion at the end of the second quarter, he added. "I don't mind at all, under current conditions, building the cash position," he said at Berkshire's shareholder confab.

Persons: Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett, Buffett, I've Organizations: JPMorgan, Oracle, Berkshire, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Berkshire, Omaha

☆ Stock futures are little changed after the Nasdaq Composite posts a record close: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-28 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures were little changed Tuesday night after the Nasdaq Composite rose to a fresh record. S&P 500 futures ticked down 0.06%, while Nasdaq 100 futures hovered near the flatline. The tech-heavy index was an outlier, however, as the S&P 500 edged higher by just 0.02%, and the 30-stock Dow slid nearly 0.6%, dragged lower by a decline in Merck shares. The S&P 500 is up 5.4% this month, while the Dow has advanced 2.7%. Indeed, fed funds futures trading data suggests a nearly 54% chance that rates will hold steady in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Persons: Dow, Tom Lee Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, . American Airlines, JetBlue, Southwest Airlines, Nvidia, Merck, Dow, Federal, Fundstrat Global Advisors

☆ Why mortgage rates are doomed to stay above 7% for the foreseeable future
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-26 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Housing experts were betting on mortgage rates to decline this year on looser Fed policy. Yet, the 30-year mortgage rate has been stuck around 7% all year. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae say they expect mortgages to stay in the 7% range through 2024. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . With the Federal Reserve looking unlikely to ease rates before September, housing market analysts are recalibrating mortgage rate outlooks, as home loan rates are heavily influenced by the Fed funds rate.

Persons: Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, — Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business

☆ Some consumers are punting big purchases like pools and mattresses
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-18 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Rachel Wisniewski | ReutersAmericans are kicking the can down the road on some more-costly, traditionally financed purchases as elevated inflation and interest rates bite. "As a result, consumers continue to scrutinize their spending and make near-term decisions based primarily on need, price and perceived value. But those options have fallen out of favor as interest rates rose. He also cited increased interest rates as another weight on their shoulders. Lofty interest rates have also hampered housing improvement efforts for those staying put, according to Home Depot .

Persons: Rachel Wisniewski, Joe, Shelly Ibach, Ibach, FactSet, Mark Mathews, Platt, J, Mitchell Dolloff, Dow Jones, it's, Mathews, Enphase, Badri Kothandaraman, Marc Bitzer, Patrick T, bode, Robert Ohmes, Richard McPhail, It's, McPhail Organizations: Reuters, Reserve, Prosper, National Retail Federation, San Francisco Fed, New York Fed, Management, Commerce Department, Consumers, Whirlpool, Fallon, Bloomberg, Getty, Bank of America, CNBC Locations: Gilbertsville , Pennsylvania, Minneapolis, U.S, California, Torrance , Calif, Minnesota

☆ This is the sweet spot in bonds right now, according to Wells Fargo — and it can yield up to 5%
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

As investors navigate the Federal Reserve's higher-for-longer interest rate policy — and eventual rate cuts down the road — they should make sure they have their fixed-income portfolio positioned properly, according to Wells Fargo. The Fed last raised rates in July 2023, bringing the fed funds rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. But investors were buoyed by news Wednesday that the consumer price index showed inflation eased slightly in April. Right now, Wells Fargo anticipates two rate cuts this year and just one in 2025, bringing the Fed's target rate to a range of 4.5% to 4.75% by the end of next year, said Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Investors can get exposure to intermediate-term bonds through mutual funds or exchange-traded funds.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Wells, Scott Wren, Wren Organizations: Federal, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ S&P 500 rebounds to less than 1% from a record after orderly three-week pullback
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-11 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The five-month, 28% sprint from the October correction low to the record high on the last trading day of the first quarter left the S & P 500 overbought, overheated and over-loved. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD So far, so good, three weeks down and now three weeks up, taking the S & P 500 back to within 1% of its March 28 peak. More specifically, he tracks the correlation between S & P 500 and the Citi Economic Surprise Index. Fidelity Investments head of global macro Jurrien Timmer fashioned this look at the path of S & P 500 earnings heading into and through each calendar year, with 2024 holding up better than 2023 was last year at this time. The last time the S & P 500 was at today's level above 5200 in late March, the 12-month forward price/earnings multiple was 21.

Persons: that's, Jerome Powell, Scott Chronert, It's, Powell, Lori Calvasina, we've Organizations: U.S, Bank, Citi, Citi U.S, Fidelity Investments, Treasury, RBC Capital

☆ Stock market today: Indexes slide amid earnings-fueled tech selloff
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks dropped on Wednesday led by a selloff in the tech sector. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks slid on Wednesday, led by a sell-off in the tech sector as investors took in weak financials and earnings guidance. Here's where US indexes stood at the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:AdvertisementHere's what else happened today:In commodities, bonds, and crypto:Advertisement

Persons: Tesla, —, David Bahnsen Organizations: Intel, Reuters, Service, Nasdaq, Justice Department, New York Fed Locations: Here's

☆ Stock market today: Stocks rally ahead of big April jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks closed higher on Thursday ahead of Apple earnings and the April jobs report. Bank of America's Savita Subramanian said the stock market has more room to run even without a rate cut. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementUS indexes closed higher on Thursday ahead of Apple's earnings and a key labor report set to be published Friday morning. Bank of America's US equity head, Savita Subramanian, has said the stock market has more room to run even without looser monetary policy.

Persons: America's Savita Subramanian, —, Dow Jones, Veronica Clark, payrolls, Jerome Powell, Savita Subramanian Organizations: Apple, Bank, America's, Service, Nvidia, Microsoft, Dow, Citi, Bank of, Bloomberg, Nasdaq Locations: China

☆ Wall Street is confused and divided over how many times the Fed will cut rates this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Wall Street reacted Thursday to this week's Fed meeting, with forecasts scattered across a range of outcomes for where monetary policy heads next. Most economists for the biggest forecasting firms expect the central bank to lower benchmark interest rates sometime later this year. Goldman left in place its call for two rate cuts this year of a quarter percentage point each, with one in July and the other in November. "If inflation comes in stronger than in our baseline, we would expect the first rate cut to be postponed to December," he wrote. For 2025, we continue to expect four rate cuts."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Powell, Goldman, Andrew Hollenhorst, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Marc Giannoni, Michael Gapen, Michael Bloom Organizations: Fed, Futures, Group, Citigroup, Barclays, Bank of America

☆ Lock in attractive real yields with this inflation-protected investment, says UBS
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors can lock in some juicy real yields with Treasury inflation-protected securities, according to UBS. "The result has been rising real yields further out the curve, offering the opportunity to lock in attractive real yields ahead of expected falling nominal yields later this year," she added. Treasury yields are expected to decline when the Federal Reserve starts reducing the fed funds rate. Nominal yields have been rising as the market reassesses those interest rate expectations. "Our expectation of declining nominal yields in the second half of the year will be a tailwind to performance," she said.

Persons: Leslie Falconio Organizations: Treasury, UBS, Federal Reserve, Treasury Department Locations: UBS Americas

☆ S&P 500 futures fall as Wall Street braces for Fed rate decision: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

S&P 500 futures slipped Tuesday night as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's rate policy decision. Futures linked to the broad market index slipped 0.22%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.42%. During Tuesday's main trading session, the Dow and S&P 500 both shed more than 1%. Bond yields jumped after the first quarter's employment cost index came in higher than anticipated, reigniting worries that the Fed will keep interest rates high. "The concern is that the Fed will definitely be slower to lower interest rates," said CFRA chief investment strategist Sam Stovall.

Persons: reigniting, Dow, Jerome Powell, Sam Stovall, Kraft Heinz, DoorDash Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Amazon, Dow, Traders, Fed, Pfizer, Kraft, CVS Health, Qualcomm Locations: New York City

☆ The spring homebuying season isn’t what it used to be, thanks to the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

All that has caused the spring homebuying season to take a timeout — and could spell trouble for the remainder of the year. Since 1999, more than a third of home sales for the entire year occur between March and June on average, according to Freddie Mac data. Given the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates, Khater expects mortgage rates to remain elevated for longer. Taken together, all these factors will likely put upward pressure on home prices, Khater and his team said in the report. “Our outlook does depend on mortgage rates, which are creating their own seasonality,” she added.

Persons: That’s, ” Zillow, Nicole Bachaud, “ Buyers, Bachaud, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac, Khater, ” Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, CNN, “, Fed Locations: New York, Texas, Florida

☆ Ron Insana: The 2024 inflation scare has arrived, but there are still signs of hope for investors
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Ron Insana | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Elizabeth Frantz | ReutersIt appears the great inflation scare of 2024 is upon us. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, grew 2.8% from a year earlier in March. The recent inflation numbers have reduced the expected number of cuts down to one or two, with the first cut anticipated to arrive much later this year. Some recent signs of cooling emergeCommodity prices, like cocoa , coffee and copper , have been on a tear in 2024. Despite all the military activity in the Middle East, oil prices have been reasonably well behaved, taking into consideration the energy shocks of years past.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Elizabeth Frantz, –, specter Organizations: Federal, Committee, Reuters, Fed, Hamas Locations: Washington , U.S, Israel

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