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Opinion | A Beautiful Inflation Report
  + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
One of my go-to economic data experts emailed on Thursday morning about the latest inflation report, which showed prices actually falling in June and up only 3 percent over the past year. It was, he declared, “beautiful.”Your aesthetic sense may vary, but we’ve now had two months of really good price data, enough to puncture the bubble of pessimism that, um, inflated early this year. Many economists argued, however, that the bad data was just noise, largely reflecting one-time price resets at the start of the year. Note that the Federal Reserve focuses not on the Consumer Price Index but on an alternative measure, the personal consumption expenditure price index, which isn’t in yet for June. And since the Fed is supposed to skate to where the puck will be, not where it is right now, there’s now an overwhelming case for interest rate cuts.
Persons: we’ve, there’s Organizations: Federal Reserve, Consumer
However, central bank officials still want to see more progress before cutting interest rates, he noted. “The most recent inflation readings, however, have shown some modest further progress, and more good data would strengthen our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%,” he added. Fed officials expect to cut interest rates just once this year, according to their latest economic projections in June, compared to the three cuts they forecast in March. The annual PCE inflation rate registered at 2.6% in June, down slightly from 2.7% in May. Fed officials and most economists don’t see a recession this year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Powell, Inflation, John Williams, ” Seema Shah Organizations: Washington CNN, Inflation, Committee, Financial, ” New York Fed, Congress, Fed, Asset Management Locations: India, United States
There are other reasons the dollar has been propelled higher as some European and Asian currencies have seen lackluster growth. A strong dollar makes US exports more expensive and reduces the profits of American companies operating overseas when earnings are converted back to dollars. And while a strong dollar lowers the cost of imported raw materials, it can boost inflation and hurt foreign investments. The families of victims of two fatal crashes of the 737 Max oppose the deal, the department said. Beyond the fatal crashes of the 737 Max jets, the company has faced a series of questions about the safety and quality of its planes.
Persons: it’s, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, , Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley, Louis Navellier, Jeanne Sahadi, Read, Max, Chris Isidore Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Republican, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Navellier, Associates, New York Federal Reserve, Boeing, Justice Department, Alaska Airlines Locations: New York, , China, Japan, United States
“We’d also like to see the labor market remain strong. For years, the Fed had been watching the job market for a different reason. Officials had worried that if conditions in the labor market remained too tight for too long, with employers fighting to hire and paying ever-rising wages to attract workers, it could help keep inflation faster than usual. But recently, job openings have come down and wage growth has abated, signals that the job market is cooling from its boil. “Future labor market slowing could translate into higher unemployment, as firms need to adjust not just vacancies but actual jobs.”
Persons: Jerome H, Powell, “ We’d, We’ve, Mary C, Daly, Organizations: Wall Street, Federal Reserve Bank of San Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Inflation “now shows signs of resuming its disinflationary trend,” Mr. Powell said on Tuesday at the European Central Bank’s annual conference in Sintra, Portugal. It was an optimistic message after the Fed’s fight against inflation hit a speed bump earlier this year. Fed officials have been waiting to see further progress on inflation before they begin to lower interest rates, which are currently set to their highest level in decades, at 5.3 percent. Mr. Powell declined to say exactly when officials could begin to cut borrowing costs, but suggested that they could lower rates if inflation data continued on its current track or if the labor market weakened. “What we’d like to see is more data like what we’ve been seeing recently,” Mr. Powell said, later adding, “We have the ability to take our time and get this right.”
Persons: Jerome H, Powell, Mr, Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Central Locations: United States, Sintra , Portugal
What Will Biden Donors Do Now?
  + stars: | 2024-07-01 | by ( Andrew Ross Sorkin | Ravi Mattu | Bernhard Warner | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Donors still on edgeThe shock waves from last week’s presidential debate are still reverberating, as President Biden and his aides sought to allay concerns from despondent Democrats and wealthy donors about his age and fitness for office. Donors are increasingly becoming reconciled to Biden remaining the Democratic nominee even after Biden’s disastrous performance. But some in the party, and in the markets, are increasingly expecting Donald Trump to win in November. Seventy-two percent of registered voters don’t believe Biden has the mental and cognitive health to serve as president, according to a CBS News poll published Sunday, compared with 65 percent in early June. With the odds for a Trump win rising after the debate, Wall Street analysts are recalculating what that could mean for the economy and the markets.
Persons: Biden, Donald Trump, don’t, Trump Organizations: Democratic, CBS, Trump, Wall Street
Much of the S&P 500’s gains were concentrated in the Magnificent Seven big tech names, while other stocks lagged behind. Coming into this year, Wall Street projected that the Fed would ease rates as many as six times in 2024. What could be in store for the stock market during the second half of 2024? “I feel very, very good about the values of my three children, and I have 100% trust in how they will carry things out,” Buffett told the Journal. Previously, Buffett had said his will stated that more than 99% of his estate was earmarked for philanthropic usage to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the four charities connected to his family: the Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation, Sherwood Foundation, Howard G. Buffett Foundation and NoVo Foundation.
Persons: there’s, Bell, Kevin Gordon, Charles Schwab, you’ve, It’s, we’re, it’s, I’d, That’s, Warren Buffett, Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Melinda Gates, ” Buffett, Susan Thompson Buffett, Howard G, Read, Matt Egan, unstuck, , Michael Gapen Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Federal Reserve, Wall, Fed, Berkshire, Wall Street, Melinda Gates Foundation, Gates, Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation, Sherwood Foundation, Buffett Foundation, NoVo Foundation, Gates Foundation, Bank of America, CNN Locations: New York, America
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure continued to cool as consumer spending grew only moderately, good news for central bankers who have been trying to weigh down demand and wrestle price increases under control. And on a monthly basis, inflation was especially mild, and prices did not climb on an overall basis. The Fed is likely to watch the fresh inflation data closely as central bankers think about their next policy steps. Officials raised interest rates sharply starting in 2022 to hit the brakes on consumer and business demand, which in turn can help to slow price increases. But they have held borrowing costs steady at 5.3 percent since July 2023 as inflation has slowly come down, and have been contemplating when to begin lowering interest rates.
Add to that the noise surrounding the US election, and it could be a rougher second half. Central Banks in Canada and the eurozone have both cut interest rates, but inflation rose in both of those regions last month. Australia, meanwhile, saw its inflation rate rise to 4% this week, stoking fears that the Reserve Bank of Australia could soon move to raise rates again. It was already well known that no documentation was found to show who worked on the door plug. Without the bolts, the door plug incident was pretty much inevitable.
Persons: London CNN —, they’ve, Michelle Bowman, she’s, Mary Daly, Austan Goolsbee, stoking, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, , José Torres, Torres, wouldn’t, Joseph Stiglitz, Trump, Trump’s, Max, , Al Michaels, Michaels, Peacock, ” Michaels, , CNN Michaels, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, London CNN, Federal Reserve, foibles, San Francisco Fed, Chicago Fed, Central Banks, Reserve Bank of Australia, Interactive Brokers, Treasury, Trump, Peterson Institute, Oxford Economics, Allianz, CNN, Boeing, Alaska, Alaska Airlines, National Transportation Safety Board, Alaska Air, NBC, Summer Games, Olympics Locations: London, Canada, Australia, Renton , Washington, Paris,
Economists at Bank of America warned this week that the US housing market is “stuck and we are not convinced it will become unstuck” until 2026 — or later. And mortgage rates may not fall much — even if the Federal Reserve finally delivers long-delayed interest rate cuts. There isn’t a magic fix,” Michael Gapen, head of US economics at Bank of America, told CNN in a phone interview. However, Bank of America expects housing starts — which is a measure of newly constructed homes — to remain flat for the coming years. Divide between haves and have-notsThe forecast for a “stuck” housing market cuts both ways.
Persons: unstuck, , Michael Gapen, “ It’s, , , Dave Liniger, ” Liniger, Liniger, “ Don’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, CNN, , ” Bank of America, Gallup Locations: New York, America
That’s because the economy has consistently ranked among the top — if not the very top — voter issues in presidential election after presidential election. Unemployment: Low, but with warning signs aheadThe nation’s unemployment rate stayed below 4% for 27 months, its longest such streak and a match for a period in the 1960s. That streak ended last month, when the unemployment rate rose to 4% from 3.9%. That means job seekers might find it harder to get hired. The number of job openings in the US economy recently fell to a three-year low.
Persons: Bill Clinton’s, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, David Paul Morris, Joe Raedle, they’ve, Frederic J . Brown Organizations: New, New York CNN, ABC, CNN, Bloomberg, Getty, of Labor Statistics, Target, Walmart Locations: New York, AFP
US new home sales plunged unexpectedly last month
  + stars: | 2024-06-26 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
Washington CNN —Sales of newly built homes dropped last month as mortgage rates remained elevated. New home sales, which make up only about 10% of the market, fell 11.3% in May from the prior month, to 619,000, according to government data released Wednesday. That was the steepest monthly decline since September 2022 and marks the lowest level since November. Mortgage rates soared to the highest level of the year in early May and have since trended down. “Persistently high mortgage rates are keeping many prospective buyers on the sidelines,” NAHB chairman Carl Harris said in a release.
Persons: That’s, , , Carl Harris Organizations: Washington CNN —, Federal, National Association of Home Builders, Housing, Locations: Wells Fargo
A severe spike in inflation. A plummet in the value of the dollar. The collapse of their biggest clients. The largest banks in America could survive even those dire economic scenarios, according to analysis released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. The industry cleared the higher bars, with as close to a clean bill of health as its leaders might have hoped.
Organizations: Federal Reserve, Credit Suisse Locations: America
New York CNN —America’s biggest banks are well positioned to survive a severe recession while continuing to lend to households and businesses, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday in its annual bank resilience test, commonly referred to as a stress test. However, banks could suffer higher losses, if a significant economic downturn were to hit now versus a year ago. As a result of the banking crisis that fueled the Great Recession, the Fed conducts stress tests to monitor and uncover potential signs of weaknesses in the financial system. At the same time, banks’ income from fees was lower, giving them less of a buffer to absorb those losses. “The goal of our test is to help to ensure that banks have enough capital to absorb losses in a highly stressful scenario.
Persons: New York CNN —, they’ve, Michael Barr, , ” Barr Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve Locations: New York
London CNN —At the beginning of the year, Federal Reserve officials projected they would cut interest rates three times this year. The labor-force participation rate has leveled off after a post-Covid boom, and the US immigration policy rate may soon become more restrictive, limiting potential new labor market participants. “Reducing our policy rate too soon or too quickly could result in a rebound in inflation, requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2% over the longer run.”Investors weren’t happy to hear it. That’s why not taking preemptive action when it’s not necessary is so important.”Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has also been particularly hawkish in his views. He also said rate hikes are “certainly not off the table.”Like Bowman and Kashkari, New York Fed President John Williams said rate hikes aren’t part of his baseline outlook.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, she’s, ” Bowman, Bowman, , Dow, Mary Daly, Daly, ” Daly, “ We’re, it’s, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Neel Kashkari, John Williams, he’s Organizations: London CNN —, Federal Reserve, Exchange, London ., Federal, Market, Nvidia, San Francisco Fed, Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California, Chicago Fed, Minneapolis, Kashkari , New York Fed, Commerce Department Locations: London, San Francisco, Kashkari , New
America’s housing crisis continues to worsen
  + stars: | 2024-06-23 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Washington CNN —Homeowners in America aren’t the only ones struggling with an unaffordable housing market. A report from Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies released last week showed that both homeowners and renters in recent years have become increasingly burdened by climbing housing costs. That’s all part of a broader struggle in the US housing market, and recent data shows that it hasn’t gotten any better. But there’s a problem: ChatGPT — soon to be integrated into Siri — is banned in China, reports my colleague Samantha Murphy Kelly. The Chicago Fed releases its National Activity Index for May.
Persons: ” Lael Brainard, , , Brainard, Biden, ” Brainard, ChatGPT —, Siri —, Samantha Murphy Kelly, OpenAI, Siri, ChatGPT, Read, Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, Michelle Bowman, General Mills, Levi Strauss, Tom Barkin Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, Washington CNN — Homeowners, America aren’t, Harvard University’s, for Housing Studies, Harvard, , White, Economic Council, Urban Institute, Administration, Apple, Apple Intelligence, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Samsung, Cyberspace Administration, FedEx, Chicago Fed, Global, Index, Board, Micron, General, US Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Nike, McCormick, Walgreens, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, Richmond Fed, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, America, Congress, China
New York CNN —Nvidia’s eye-popping gains this year have helped propel the stock market to repeated record highs. Can Nvidia’s blockbuster gains continue, and what does its outsized market cap mean for the stock rally? Now everyone says, “the market is dependent on Nvidia’s earnings.” You’re going to see a kind of a shift in market cap over the years. “These lower mortgage rates coupled with the gradually improving housing supply bodes well for the housing market.”Still, mortgage rates remain higher than anything seen in the decade before 2022, the year the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates to combat inflation. The Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates but its actions do influence them through the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield, which moves in anticipation of the Fed’s policy moves.
Persons: OpenAI’s, Bell, Christopher Barto, ” You’re, Bryan Mena, Freddie Mac, , Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, don’t, Read, Ilya Sutskever, Clare Duffy, Sutskever, Geoffrey Hinton Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Nvidia, Microsoft, Fort Pitt Capital Group, Apple, Meta, Google, Amazon, , Federal Reserve, Treasury, Superintelligence Inc, SSI Locations: New York
Washington CNN —Mortgage rates fell this week to their lowest level since early April, taking some pressure off America’s unaffordable housing market. “These lower mortgage rates coupled with the gradually improving housing supply bodes well for the housing market.”Still, mortgage rates remain higher than anything seen in the decade before 2022, the year the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates to combat inflation. Economists don’t expect the average mortgage rate to fall below 6% this year. Homebuilding constrained by high interest ratesWhile mortgage rates have eased recently, the US housing market overall remains hamstrung by elevated interest rates, which seem to be taking a toll on homebuilding. “Persistently high mortgage rates are keeping many prospective buyers on the sidelines,” NAHB Chairman Carl Harris said in a release.
Persons: Freddie Mac, , Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, don’t, America’s homebuilders, , Carl Harris, ” Skylar Olsen Organizations: Washington CNN —, , Federal Reserve, Treasury, National Association of Home Builders Locations: ., Wells Fargo, America, San Diego , Los Angeles and New York, California, Honolulu
Wall Street is turning more bullish
  + stars: | 2024-06-18 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
New York CNN —It’s tough being a Wall Street bear these days. The S&P 500 index has climbed nearly 15% this year and clinched 30 record-high closes. The new backdrop of cooling inflation coupled with rate cuts on the horizon is prompting investors to up their bullish wagers. Evercore ISI raised its price target to 6,000 for the S&P 500, a reversal from its previous, more gloomy 4,750 target. Much of the S&P 500 index’s returns are tied to the mega-cap tech Magnificent Seven stocks, leaving the market dependent on just a handful of names to continue its monster run.
Persons: New York CNN —, Goldman Sachs, , Julian Emanuel, index’s, Bacon, Danielle Wiener, Bronner, fuming, Jin Bian, Samantha Delouya, Bian, , Ron DeSantis, isn’t, Bill 264, Sellers, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, ISI, Evercore ISI, Shoppers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNN Locations: New York, Monday’s, Florida, Tampa , Florida, Nanjing, China
CNN —“Good news is bad news” has been a common refrain for a while now. When economic reports are released that are solid, they have all too often been clouded with concerns that good news for the economy actually means a longer wait before the Federal Reserve rolls out rate cuts. Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index cooled more than expected in May, with prices holding flat on the month for the first time since July 2022. The markets don’t seem to be buying the one-cut plan, especially after the Producer Price Index on Thursday showed that wholesale prices fell from April to May and the BLS’ Import and Export Price Index showed that US imports prices fell 0.4% in May after rising 0.9% in April. And more good news is likely on the way this next week and later this month, Brusuelas said.
Persons: CNN —, , Joe Brusuelas, , ” Brusuelas, spoilsport, Price, ” Chris Rupkey, , ” Rupkey, Brusuelas Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, RSM US, New York Fed, National Federation of Independent, Consumer, Index, BLS, Price, FwdBonds, CPI, PPI
The markets and Fed diverge againThe bull market rally is continuing to run on Thursday. The S&P 500 is poised to set yet another record, as investors see inflation in retreat — even if Fed policymakers don’t quite see it that way. The gulf between investors and the central bank is widening again. That makes the Fed more hawkish than other central banks, especially those in Europe, that are expected to trim borrowing costs several times this year. He reiterated that inflation remained above the central bank’s 2 percent target and that U.S. households’ spending power had diminished over the past two years.
Persons: Jay Powell, Organizations: Fed Locations: Europe
How to Read the Fed’s Projections Like a Pro
  + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to release both an interest-rate decision and a fresh set of economic projections on Wednesday, and Wall Street has been eagerly awaiting those revised estimates for clues on when interest rate cuts may begin. Officials are expected to leave rates unchanged in a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent, where they have been since July 2023. The question now is when officials may begin to cut rates — and how much borrowing costs will actually move down. Investors will carefully parse the Fed’s fresh forecasts for hints. The dot plot, decodedWhen the central bank releases its Summary of Economic Projections each quarter, Fed watchers focus obsessively on one part in particular: the so-called dot plot.
Organizations: Federal Locations: Central
Federal Reserve officials insist that they are “data dependent” as they craft interest rate policy. There is little chance that the inflation data will change the Fed’s plans for this month. Officials are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, no matter what happens. Policymakers came into the year expecting to lower interest rates three times in 2024, but economists expect the Fed on Wednesday to change those projections to predict two cuts. Some see a small chance officials could project just one rate reduction.
Persons: Organizations: Federal, Fed
The inflation rate the government arrives at also impacts how much you receive in Social Security benefits and likely is a factor in determining your pay. The government also has a much longer history of producing inflation reports with extremely thorough standards. Like PCE and CPI, Truflation assigns relative importance values to categories to mirror how an average consumer’s income is allocated. That’s why small increases in the cost of housing can end up having big impacts on the overall inflation rate. How Truflation data is being usedWall Street traders were the first group drawn to Truflation, Rust said.
Persons: Truflation, Hilton, Stefan Rust, Rust, , ” Danielle DiMartino Booth, Richard Fisher, Booth Organizations: New, New York CNN, Index, Federal, Social Security, PCE, CPI, Amazon, Walmart, Nielsen, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Department, CNN, Dallas Fed, QI Research Locations: New York, Zillow
Falling gas prices kept inflation in check following a 0.3% gain in April. “Adding to the good inflation news, core services inflation (excludes energy services) printed its mildest monthly increase since September 2021,” Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide’s chief economist, wrote in a note issued Wednesday. On an annual basis, shelter inflation slowed a tenth of a percentage point to 5.4%, which is its lowest rate since April 2022. Still, those costs continue to run hot for consumers, with transportation services prices up 10.5% from a year ago and car insurance up 20.3%. Soft CPI boosts chances for Fed cutsThe CPI, which tracks average change in prices for a basket of goods and services common to consumers, is the most widely cited inflation metric.
Persons: ” Philip T, Powell, They’re, ” Kathy Bostjancic, Indiana University’s Powell, it’s, ” Sean Snaith, ” Preston Caldwell, Tool, , ” Scott Anderson Organizations: CNN, Inflation, Federal, Bureau of Labor Statistics ’, Indiana Business Research Center, Indiana University Kelley School of Business, Federal Reserve, CPI, Transportation, University of Central, Soft, Fed, Morningstar, BMO Bank Locations: , Indiana, University of Central Florida
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