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The euro languished not far from a three-week trough reached in the previous session, after normally hawkish European Central Bank policymaker Isabel Schnabel took a dovish tone on inflation, cementing bets for a rate cut this month. Currently, traders lay 34.6% odds of another 50 basis-point U.S. rate cut on Nov. 7, after the Fed kicked off its easing cycle with a super-sized reduction last month. "I do think that if the payrolls report overall is not too shabby tomorrow night, then we will see that pricing (for a 50 basis-point cut) coming in quite significantly." The dollar added 0.09% to 146.575 yen after earlier reaching 146.885 for the first time since Sept. 3. The euro was little changed at $1.10455, sitting not far from Wednesday's low of $1.10325, a level last seen on Sept. 12.
Persons: European Central Bank policymaker Isabel Schnabel, Ray Attrill, Attrill, Asahi Noguchi, Sterling Organizations: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Private U.S, ADP, Fed, National Australia Bank, Dovish Bank of Japan Locations: U.S, Iran, Israel
Traders are watching rising risks to oil supplies as tensions in the Middle East escalate. US oil spiked 5.5% to $73.98 a barrel and Brent prices rose more than 5% to trade at $77.86. If the conflict destroys Iran's oil infrastructure, oil prices could surge 161% to over $200 a barrel, according to SEB's chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop. AdvertisementInvestors are eagerly awaiting the September jobs report, due Friday, for further signs of labor market health. Markets are pricing in a 65% chance of a smaller 25 basis point cut in November, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Friday's nonfarm, Biden, , Joe Biden, retaliating, Biden's, Brent, Bjarne Schieldrop, Economists, Jensen Huang, Blackwell Organizations: Traders, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Israel, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Costco Locations: Israel, Iran
Gold rangebound as investors brace for key U.S. economic data
  + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices were trading in a tight range on Thursday as traders remained on the sidelines ahead of a key U.S. economic data that may provide clues about the size of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts expected later this year. Gold prices were trading in a tight range on Thursday as traders remained on the sidelines ahead of a key U.S. economic data that may provide clues about the size of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts expected later this year. Investors are watching out for the ISM services data and the initial jobless claims, due later in the day, along with the U.S. non-farm payroll data expected on Friday. Gold tends to thrive in a low interest rate environment and political turmoil. Elsewhere, Perth Mint's gold product sales touched a 10-month high in September, while silver sales hit a seven-month high.
Persons: Brian Lan, , CME's, Lan Organizations: GoldSilver Central, Investors, U.S . Locations: Singapore, Israel, Beirut, Iran, Perth
Great news for Club stocks Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley : The rebound in investment banking isn't over yet. We'll find out to what extent when Wells Fargo reports earnings on Oct. 11 and Morgan Stanley delivers quarterly results on Oct. 16. MS YTD mountain Morgan Stanley (MS) year-to-date performance For Morgan Stanley, a resurgence in its investment banking division is crucial to our investment thesis and why we stuck with it. WFC YTD mountain Wells Fargo (WFC) year-to-date Morgan Stanley's IB business is much larger than Wells Fargo's. Wells Fargo, which has a strong wealth management franchise, is branching out to take a slice of the IB pie.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, We'll, Wells, Jerome Powell, Powell, Rebecca Brokmeier, Brokmeier, Morgan, Jim Cramer, Goldman Sachs, underperformance, Dan Simkowitz, Jim, We've, Charlie Scharf, Jim Cramer's, William McChesney Martin Jr, Anna Moneymaker Organizations: Club, Wells, Federal Reserve, Wall, P Global Market Intelligence, KPMG, Global, Fed, National Association for Business, CNBC, Morgan Stanley's IB, IB, Bloomberg News, Federal, Getty Locations: U.S, Nashville , Tennessee, Wells, Wells Fargo, Washington , DC
India's recent stock market surge has investors viewing the country as an emerging market poised for long-term outperformance. The India NSE Nifty 50 Index , the country's domestic stock market benchmark, has soared 18.7% this year, hitting record levels. "The data show that, historically, the Indian market has offered robust returns with reduced volatility." Going back to 2015, INDA has seen bigger annual gains and smaller declines than the broader emerging market fund. How to play the Indian market Financials are among investors' favorite spots in India's booming stock market.
Persons: It's, Malcolm Dorson, Dorson, GlobalX, Russell, , EEM, INDA, Amr Abdel Khalek, Khalek, Jerome Powell, Venugopal Garre, Krishna Mohanraj, You've, Mohanraj Organizations: India NSE, Global, CNBC, U.S, Federal, Fed, Nasdaq, China, MRB Partners, Traders, Barclays, Diamond Hill Capital Management, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, ICICI, HDFC, Whitehaven Coal, Prestige Estates Locations: India, China, Dorson, U.S, Whitehaven
US stocks closed higher on Wednesday as traders looked to coming economic data. The September jobs report, a key data point for the next rate move, is due out Friday. AdvertisementUS stocks ended slightly higher on Wednesday as traders anticipated key economic data in the US and looked past simmering tensions in the Middle East. Markets are also taking in positive jobs data, with the private sector adding 143,000 jobs last month, according to ADP. The latter will serve as a key data point when central bankers decide how much further to cut interest rates.
Persons: Traders, , José Torres, Torres, tomorrow's Organizations: Service, Investors, Interactive Brokers, ADP, Here's Locations: Iran, Israel
Oil prices surged after Iran attacked Israel, fueling the sell-off. AdvertisementUS stocks dropped Wednesday as traders continued to monitor escalating tensions in the Middle East. Major indexes slumped in early morning trading while oil prices spiked for a second day, with the international crude benchmark up 2.7% to $75.63 a barrel. Investors sold stocks Tuesday after Iran launched a missile attack on Israel early Tuesday, causing some to flee to risk-off assets. "The stock market impact of geopolitical tensions largely centers around oil prices, and as long as oil prices remain below $100 per barrel and corporate profits remain strong, that is supportive of higher stock prices."
Persons: , Mary Ann Bartels, Bartels Organizations: Service, Lombard, Sanctuary Wealth, Fed Locations: Iran, Israel
The bank's stock-strategy chief pointed to the slowing job market and the potential for sticky inflation. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementThe stock market could be headed into an end-of-the-year correction, according to Stifel's Barry Bannister. The slowing job market has already caught the attention of investors, who are watching for signs of continued economic weakness. "It's very hard to justify getting below 3% without a slowdown," Bannister said of interest rates.
Persons: Stifel's Barry Bannister, , " Bannister, Bannister Organizations: Service, CNBC, Conference, Challenger, Investors, Investor
Don't overlook Disney : Shares of Club name Disney have quietly put together a solid September, up about 6% in the month. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jerome Powell, Powell, we've, Jim Cramer's, Coterra, McCormick, We'll, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Disney, Seaport Research, Seaport, Energy, Coterra Energy, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Nashville
Powell emphasized the economy's strength and recalibrated interest rate cut expectations. Investors are also eyeing key employment data releases this week for further market direction. All three major indexes moved higher in late trading following Powell's comments about the strength of the US economy. AdvertisementPowell's comments recalibrated interest rate cut expectations in the market. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4 p.m. closing bell on Monday:AdvertisementAside from Fed comments, investors are preparing for a wave of employment data this week.
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Powell, , Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Dow, Federal, National Association for Business Economics
Gold, silver head for weekly gains on U.S. rate-cut momentum
  + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold and silver prices retreated on Friday from record highs, but were positioned for weekly gains on growing anticipation of another bumper U.S. interest rate cut this year, as markets awaited a key inflation report for additional guidance. Gold and silver prices retreated on Friday from record highs, but were positioned for weekly gains on growing anticipation of another bumper U.S. interest rate cut this year, as markets awaited a key inflation report for additional guidance. Silver prices surged due to bullion's strong performance and China's stimulus measures, though some analysts warn that the rally may fade due to concerns over industrial demand. The Federal Reserve's larger-than-usual half-percentage-point reduction last week ignited a rally in gold, which hit consecutive record highs and has gained about 1.8% so far this week. Gold prices are currently supported by anticipated U.S. Fed interest rate cuts and China's stimulus measures, both of them are weakening the dollar, said Kyle Rodda, financial market analyst at Capital.com.
Persons: Kyle Rodda Organizations: FedWatch, U.S, BMI Locations: U.S
Dollar drifts, risk-sensitive currencies lifted by China optimism
  + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The dollar wobbled on Friday, poised for a fourth straight week of declines as investors weighed U.S. data to gauge the pace of interest rate cuts, while China's spree of stimulus measures kept risk-sensitive currencies aloft. The dollar wobbled on Friday, poised for a fourth straight week of declines as investors weighed U.S. data to gauge the pace of interest rate cuts, while China's spree of stimulus measures kept risk-sensitive currencies aloft. "This suggests a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts, prioritizing a balance between the Fed's employment mandate and keeping an eye on inflation risks." The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars also held near multi-year highs due to China stimulus plans. AUD/On Thursday, China's leaders pledged to support the struggling economy through "forceful" interest rate cuts and adjustments to fiscal and monetary policies, stoking expectations for more stimulus.
Persons: Ryan Brandham, Sterling, China's Organizations: Federal Reserve, North America, Validus Risk, New, Communist Party, ING Locations: U.S, China, New Zealand
The Treasury market, though, hasn’t been paying attention. Officials penciled in another 50 basis points in reductions by the end of the year and another 100 by the end of 2025. That sentiment is evident in the “breakeven” inflation rate, or the difference between standard Treasury and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities yields. The 5-year breakeven rate, for instance, has risen 8 basis points since the Fed meeting and is up 20 basis points since Sept. 11. Taken together, the various dynamics in the Treasury market are making it a difficult time for investors.
Persons: hasn’t, , Jonathan Duensing, — haven’t, , Robert Tipp, We’re, Jerome, Powell, ” Duensing, Tom Garretson, “ They’d, There’s Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Amundi, Fed, CME, Treasury Inflation, RBC Wealth Management
Indexes rallied Thursday on positive jobs data and promises of further economic stimulus in China. AdvertisementUS stocks rallied on Thursday, fueled by China stimulus measures and positive jobs data to pare losses from yesterday. The indexes rallied after leaders in China pledged to support the economy with more strong policy measures. The indexes' gains were also fueled by positive labor market data. Meanwhile, second-quarter GDP came in unrevised at a 3% annualized rate, according to data released Thursday.
Persons: , Eric Jackson, SocGen Organizations: Service, Labor Department, Federal Reserve Locations: China, unrevised
Emons: Micron's upgraded outlook boosts the tech sector.
  + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEmons: Micron's upgraded outlook boosts the tech sector. Ben Emons, Chief Investment Officer and Founder at FedWatch Advisors, discussed market trends, noting Micron's upbeat outlook boosting tech stocks and the Fed potentially accelerating actions to control unemployment.
Persons: Ben Emons Organizations: FedWatch Advisors
The Treasury market, though, hasn't been paying attention. Watching the curveThe difference between the 10- and 2-year notes has widened significantly, increasing by about 12 basis points since the Fed meeting. That sentiment is evident in the "breakeven" inflation rate, or the difference between standard Treasury and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities yields. The 5-year breakeven rate, for instance, has risen 8 basis points since the Fed meeting and is up 20 basis points since Sept. 11. watch nowFed officials aim for a 2% inflation rate, and none of the principal gauges are there yet.
Persons: Anna Moneymaker, hasn't, Jonathan Duensing, — haven't, Robert Tipp Organizations: Federal Reserve, Getty, Treasury, Amundi, Fed, CME, Treasury Inflation Locations: Washington , DC
Gold lingers near record highs, Powell's speech eyed for rate cues
  + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices were steady on Thursday, hovering close to record highs, on expectations of another big U.S. rate cut this year, although gains were limited ahead of remarks by key Federal Reserve policymakers later in the day. Gold prices were steady on Thursday, hovering close to record highs, on expectations of another big U.S. rate cut this year, although gains were limited ahead of remarks by key Federal Reserve policymakers later in the day. Bullion has risen nearly 29% so far in 2024 and hit record highs several times this year, largely fueled by monetary policy easing by major global banks and geopolitical concerns. Last Wednesday, the Fed delivered a 50-basis-point rate cut, with traders seeing a 62% chance of an additional half-percentage-point reduction in November, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Additionally, U.S. jobless claims data on Thursday and the core personal consumption expenditure index — the Fed's preferred inflation — on Friday, will be eyed for further rate cues.
Persons: Tim Waterer, Bullion, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Michael Barr, Nicholas Frappell Organizations: U.S ., KCM, Fed, New York Fed, ABC Refinery Locations: .
Dollar firm following sharp rebound as Fed speakers eyed
  + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Earlier this week, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said policymakers "can't be behind the curve" if the economy is to have a soft landing. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the central bank needn't go on a "mad dash" to lower rates. Later Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell gives pre-recorded remarks at a conference in New York, where New York Fed President John Williams also speaks. Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Lisa Cook take to the podium at various other venues as well. Minutes from the Bank of Japan's July meeting, when the central bank raised short-term interest rates, showed policymakers were divided on how quickly the central bank should raise interest rates further.
Persons: Adriana Kugler, Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, I'm, it's, Kenneth Crompton, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Susan Collins, Michelle Bowman, Lisa Cook, NAB's Crompton, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: Reserve, Fed, Chicago Fed, Atlanta Fed, National Australia Bank, New York Fed, Boston, Weekly U.S, Traders, Bank of Japan's, Swiss Locations: New York
Markets are bracing for the latest GDP revision, jobless claims, and PCE inflation data in the coming days. Traders are still pricing in considerable rate cuts well into next year, per the CME FedWatch tool. AdvertisementUS stocks were mostly lower on Wednesday, ending a record-setting streak of gains as traders looked ahead to coming economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 300 points and the S&P 500 slipped from record highs, ending the day about 0.2% lower. Traders are still expecting steep rate cuts over the course of the next year.
Persons: , Scott Wren, Wells Organizations: Traders, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, US, Micron Technologies, Micron Locations: Wells Fargo, East, Ukraine
Australian, New Zealand dollars scale new highs on China boost
  + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
An Australian one-hundred dollar banknote, top, and a New Zealand one-hundred dollar banknote are arranged for a photograph in Hong Kong, China, on Thursday, March 13, 2014. The Australian and New Zealand dollars scaled multi-month peaks on Wednesday while sterling hit its highest in more than two years against a weaker dollar, as China's aggressive stimulus package provided the latest shot in the arm for risk appetite. Data on Tuesday showed U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in September, amid mounting worries over the health of the labor market. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar last stood at 100.28, languishing near a more than one-year low of 100.21. The dollar index had fallen more than 0.5% in the previous session, its largest one-day percentage fall in a month.
Persons: Sterling, Carol Kong, Wells Organizations: New, Bank of, Federal Reserve, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, greenback, Markets Locations: Australian, New Zealand, Hong Kong, China, Bank of England, U.S, Wells Fargo
The rally in US stocks took a breather on Wednesday as traders looked ahead to coming economic data. Major indexes wobbled and bond yields were slightly higher. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Major stock averages pulled back slightly after notching a series of record-highs since last week's rate cut, while bond yields edged up slightly. "Traders will be curious to hear more thoughts on the rate cut and any guidance on further monetary policy easing."
Persons: , Powell, Hogan, Riley Wealth Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, US Treasury Market Conference, Federal
An acceleration of US economic growth is a major risk for investors, says economist Steven Blitz. Blitz warns a "no landing" scenario could lead to inflation rebound and Fed rate hikes. The fed funds rate should be around 4% due to economic resilience, Blitz advises. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementAn acceleration of economic growth in the US might be the stock market's worst-case scenario, according to GlobalData TS Lombard chief economist Steven Blitz.
Persons: Steven Blitz, , Blitz Organizations: Service, GlobalData, Federal Reserve
Gold holds ground on dovish Fed-speak, Mideast concerns
  + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Gold prices steadied on Tuesday after surging to a record high in the previous session, following broadly dovish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Bullion hit a record high of $2,635.29 on Monday. "Gold prices continue to be well-supported amid a series of dovish Fed rhetoric overnight," said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong. Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee said there are "lots of cuts" to come over the next 12 months, while Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that the actual path would depend on incoming data. "Tensions in the region will likely be kept high for longer, which could see gold prices retain its bullish bias."
Persons: Yeap Jun Rong, Austan Goolsbee, Neel Kashkari Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Chicago Fed Bank, Hezbollah Locations: U.S, ., Israel, Lebanon
A weak consumer confidence reading caused indexes to briefly drop early morning. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Investors reacted with dismay after the latest consumer sentiment reading, with confidence among US consumers logging its largest one-month drop in more than three years. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index came in at 98.7 for September, well below consensus estimates of a 104 reading. Advertisement"It's never good to see consumer confidence fall this much.
Persons: , Jamie Cox, Jensen Huang Organizations: Nvidia, Service, Harris Financial, Federal Locations: China
Investors are parsing through data and Fed commentary to determine future rate cuts. On Tuesday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman explained why she dissented against a deep cut in September. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! Both indexes closed at all-time highs on Monday amid rising outlooks that the Federal Reserve will deliver another half-point interest rate cut in November. To better understand where monetary policy may be headed after the Fed's first rate cut in four years, investors are tuning into Fed commentary and parsing through incoming data.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, , dovish, Michelle Bowman's, Bowman Organizations: Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal Reserve, Fed, Richmond, Here's Locations: Kentucky
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