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☆ Analysis: Move over TINA, it's time for TARA
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Reuters GraphicsIdanna Appio, a portfolio manager at First Eagle Investments, said that TINA was good for passive investors as it meant that equity prices went up because bond yields went down. "The risk free rate," he added, referring to core government bond yields, "actually gives you something." Bond funds recorded net inflows for six straight weeks until early January, BofA said, based on its analysis of EPFR data. "The end of TINA is very important," said Francesco Sandrini, head of multi-asset strategies at Amundi, Europe's largest fund manager. "You don’t need a bond bull market, you now have income," said Jeffrey Sherman, deputy chief investment officer at U.S. money manager DoubleLine.

☆ Jeffrey Gundlach says he 'tremendously' favors non-U.S. stocks, calls bond market 'exciting'
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said he's excited about the investing opportunities different asset classes offer in 2023 after many went through a massive correction last year. "Bonds were hopeless; stocks were hopeless," Gundlach said in an investor webcast on Tuesday, referring to the asset classes' performance last year. Firstly among government bonds, Gundlach said he favors long-dated Treasurys and predicts the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds could go up 30% in a deep recession. In terms of stocks, Gundlach said he "tremendously" favors non-U.S. equities, especially emerging market stocks on the back of a peaking dollar. The DXY US Dollar Currency Index has fallen 8% from a 20-year high of 114.78 on Sept. 28.

Reuters Graphics3/ RE-EMERGING MARKETSWhisper it, but the emerging markets (EM) bulls are back after 2022 delivered some of the biggest losses on record. Credit Suisse particularly likes hard currency debt and DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach, AKA the "bond king", has EM stocks as his top pick. Economists polled by Reuters expect headline U.S. inflation to decelerate to 3.1% by the end of 2023. Valentine Ainouz, fixed income strategist at the Amundi Institute, predicts the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will end 2023 at 3.5% from around 3.88% currently. Reuters Graphics5/ EQUITIES: SELL NOW, BUY LATEREquity investors hope a V-shaped year for the global economy will see stocks end it comfortably higher.

☆ How 2022 shocked, rocked and rolled global markets
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The main drivers have been the war in Ukraine, combined with rampant inflation as global economies broke out of the pandemic, but China remained shackled by it. U.S. Treasuries and German bonds, the benchmarks of global borrowing markets and traditional go-to assets in troubled times, lost 17% and 25% respectively in dollar terms. Ten-year Treasury yields jumped to 1.8% from less than 1.5%, knocking 5% off MSCI's world stocks index (.MIWD00000PUS) in January alone. The Fed has delivered an eye-watering 400bps of rate hikes and the European Central Bank, a record 250bps, despite saying this time last year it was unlikely to budge. "What has gone in global markets this year has been traumatic," said EFG Bank Chief Economist and ex-Deputy Governor of Ireland's central bank, Stefan Gerlach.

☆ Yields are more attractive than they've been for a decade, says DoubeLine Capital's Campbell
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYields are more attractive than they've been for a decade, says DoubeLine Capital's CampbellBill Campbell, DoubleLine Capital portfolio manager, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss bonds in 2023, if there's a risk the Federal Reserve has raised rates too high and more.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with DoubleLine Capital's Bill Campbell
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with DoubleLine Capital's Bill CampbellBill Campbell, DoubleLine Capital portfolio manager, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss bonds in 2023, if there's a risk the Federal Reserve has raised rates too high and more.

☆ Wall Street's biggest investors are all but sure of a recession next year. Here’s where they are hiding out
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

For investors looking for a way to ride out the storm in one piece, here are where the biggest investors are hiding out. Emerging markets Bond King Gundlach said it's time to buy emerging market stocks as the dollar has likely hit its peak. Cash Cash, one of the most hated corners of the market for years, has gotten some newfound love as risk assets remain stuck in a rout. Buying safe government bonds allows investors to shop for riskier, more opportunistic credits in the market, Gundlach said. Spreads on non-Treasurys have widened, including guaranteed mortgages, junk bond yields, emerging market debt and asset back securities, he added.

☆ A China ‘spending boom?’ Your guide to emerging market investing in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-26 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

"We're going to have a spending boom in China, at least in the first half of the year," said Mehran Nakhjavani, emerging market strategist at MRB Partners. How to play emerging markets in 2023 Regardless, there are several ways for investors to get exposure to emerging markets. Perhaps the easiest way is by investing in the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM). Another vehicle through which to play emerging markets is the First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap AlphaDex ETF (FEMS) . The fund is the best-performing emerging markets ETF this year, according to Morningstar, with a year-to-date return of just over 1%.

Dec 22 (Reuters) - Scott Minerd, global chief investment officer at investment and advisory firm Guggenheim Partners and a prominent Wall Street bond investor, has died, his firm said on Thursday. During his 25-year stint with Guggenheim, Minerd became a prolific commentator on financial markets and was often quoted by the media. He will be greatly missed by all," Mark Walter, chief executive and a founder of Guggenheim Partners, said in the firm's statement. Guggenheim said it had implemented a succession plan, with Anne Walsh, managing partner and CIO of Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, assuming many of Minerd's responsibilities on an interim basis. Minerd was regarded in the past few years as one of the U.S. "bond kings," along with Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive of DoubleLine, and Dan Ivascyn, chief investment officer of bond giant PIMCO.

☆ Analysis: Investors count on bonds to rescue battered 60/40 portfolio in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A 60/40 portfolio, which typically allocates 60% of assets into stocks and 40% into bonds, counts on moves in the two asset classes to offset one another, with stocks strengthening amid economic optimism and bonds rising during uncertain times. So-called 60/40 portfolios, which mix stocks and bonds, are on place for their first down year since 2018. Though market participants tend to avoid bonds during inflationary times, they are a popular destination for haven-seeking investors when the economy wobbles. Consecutive annual declines in the 60/40 portfolio have been rare. Higher-than-expected borrowing costs or rebounding inflation could deal another blow to investors in both stocks and bonds.

☆ DoubleLine discusses the bond market and inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBond yields don't have to fall in order for investors to have a nice return: DoubleLineJeffrey Sherman, deputy chief investment officer at DoubleLine, says core inflation will persist.

☆ Here's how the Federal Reserve confused the markets
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Markets had flip flopped Wednesday afternoon, after the Federal Reserve released its policy statement and new interest rate and economic forecasts. Swonk noted there is agreement among Fed officials to drive rates higher, and most officials forecast an end point for rates above 5% in 2023. Fed funds futures Thursday showed a high rate of 4.89% by next May, still below the Fed's target. Every month that goes by means there's somebody's debt that matures that's going to be needed to be refinanced at a higher rate." With the economy weakening, I think the inflation rate is going to fall faster than most economists do."

☆ 'Bond King' Jeffrey Gundlach says the inflation threat is fading fast – and the Fed should end its interest-rate hikes now
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Billionaire investor Jeffrey Gundlach thinks the threat of inflation is quickly receding. He urged the Fed to stop hiking rates after Wednesday's move as there's been progress on inflation. The Fed isn't being transparent about its inflation target, Gundlach added, which he believes is "more like 3% now". With the economy weakening, I think the inflation rate is going to fall faster than most economists do," he added. "I secretly believe the Fed's inflation target is more like 3% now.

☆ Ritholtz CEO Josh Brown likes the healthcare sector in a recessionary 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRitholtz CEO Josh Brown likes the healthcare sector in a recessionary 2023Josh Brown, Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to react to DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach's remarks regarding the Fed and markets.

☆ The Fed's not being transparent about its inflation target, says DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed's not being transparent about its inflation target, says DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey GundlachJeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine CEO, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss the Fed's inflation target and reacts to billionaire investor Bill Ackman's tweet criticizing the central bank's two percent inflation target.

☆ Bond king Gundlach says the Fed should not do more rate hikes after the latest increase
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"I think they should not do any more hikes after today," Gundlach said on CNBC's " Closing Bell Overtime " Wednesday, adding that the central bank might do one more 25-basis-point rate increase. The so-called bond king said the central bank will be "highly encouraged" by the inflation data in the next six months. With the economy weakening, I think the inflation rate is going to fall faster than most economists do." Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said during a news conference Wednesday that the central bank will stay the course until the job is done. Many economists view the 2-year 10-year part of the yield curve as more predictive of a potential recession.

☆ By June, we predict CPI will be down to 4.1, says DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBy June, we predict CPI will be down to 4.1, says DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey GundlachJeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine CEO, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss the Fed's decision to raise rates another 50 bps.

☆ Tax-loss selling in battered U.S. stocks could spur January snap-back
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Yet some investors are betting a number of those beaten-down stocks and possibly the broader market could snap back in January, once the selling period is over. DoubleLine founder Jeffrey Gundlach told CNBC on Wednesday that risk assets will likely rally in January once retail investors finish tax-loss selling. Strategists at Evercore wrote on Nov. 30 that they were "buyers of stocks whose 2022 Tax Loss selling pressure will soon abate." Investors appear to have already started selling underperforming shares. Private clients at BofA, for instance, sold nearly $1.4 billion of stocks in likely tax-motivated selling in November, up from roughly $800 million last year, and appear poised to continue that outsized rate of selling this month, the firm said.

☆ DoubleLine’s Gundlach says 2023 will be a recessionary year with the Fed starting cutting rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

To fight runaway inflation, the Fed has raised its short-term borrowing rate to a target range of 3.75%-4%, the highest level since January 2008. The so-called bond king thinks the Fed could have a policy pivot just weeks after economic indicators deteriorate further. Gundlach pointed to a policy reversal in 2019 when the Fed abandoned tightening and switched back to easing in three weeks. "I think the odds are probably greater than 75% that there's a rate cut in 2023," Gundlach said. You have momentum going," Gundlach said.

☆ US stocks stretch losing streak as China trade slump underscores recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks fell Wednesday and were on track to extend a run of losses. A slump in Chinese trade in November highlighted global recession worries. Chinese trade figures released Wednesday underscored recession fears even as the world's second-largest economy continued to roll back its zero-COVID policy measures related to quarantines and testing. Official data released by the government showed exports in November contracted by 8.7% in November from a year earlier, the worst decline since February 2020 when the COVID outbreak was starting to spread worldwide. Here's what else is happening today:Goldman Sachs boss David Solomon sees just a 35% chance the Fed avoids a recession.

☆ DoubleLine's Gundlach says it's time to buy emerging market stocks as the dollar peaks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said it's time for investors to buy emerging market stocks as the dollar has likely hit its top. "I do think the dollar has peaked out, ... which does suggest that investments in emerging markets like emerging market equities are probably going to be a good winner in 2023," Gundlach said Tuesday at CNBC's Financial Advisor Summit . "It's time to buy emerging market equities if you have an annual allocation switch. I really do think the time is right," Gundlach said. On the overall markets, Gundlach said he expects January will see some buying as investors wrap up tax loss harvesting and start to reallocate capital.

☆ Shares and pound splutter as UK dishes out budget gruel
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

[1/3] Pound and Dollar banknotes are seen in this picture illustration taken June 13, 2017. Pound and UK Gilt recover from 'mini budget' turmoilOvernight in Asia, grim signals from Micron Technology about excess inventories and sluggish demand sent chipmaker stocks sprawling. Mainland Chinese shares also wobbled, with blue chips there (.CSI300) falling 0.5% having ripped 10% higher this month. Traders will also scrutinise speeches from Fed officials on Thursday for hints about rate hikes. Crude oil steadied in Europe after settling more than a dollar lower overnight, following the resumption of Russian oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary and as rising COVID-19 cases in China weighed on sentiment.

☆ Credito Real in talks with bondholders as bankruptcy ruling looms
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MEXICO CITY, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Troubled Mexican non-bank lender Credito Real (CREAL.MX) is in talks with foreign bondholders, prompting creditors to delay their request for an involuntary U.S. bankruptcy hearing, according to two sources close to the matter. Credito Real collapsed after it defaulted on a 170 million Swiss franc ($176 million) bond in February, prompting bonds to shed 99% of their value. The person added that while the talks did not constitute negotiations yet, there was chance they could develop into them. Credito Real, which offered payroll lending and unsecured credit, did not respond to Reuters' request for comment. The default by Credito Real, along with AlphaCredit and Unifin (UNIFINA.MX), have made banks less willing to finance non-bank lenders, analysts say, prompting fears about the non-bank sector in Mexico.

☆ Bond king Jeffrey Gundlach says any year-end stock market rally is going to be derailed by intense tax-loss selling
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Jeffrey Gundlach is skeptical of any year-end rally in the stock market because of tax-loss harvesting. Tax-loss harvesting allows investors to realize losses that can offset future realized gains, helping reduce tax liabilities in the long term. I even got a white paper from somebody saying this was the greatest tax loss selling opportunity of a generation. Tax-loss selling is a tax optimization strategy that investors and financial advisors often take advantage of in taxable accounts heading into year-end. In the meantime, Gundlach recommends investors stick with bonds as they offer a better value relative to stocks thanks to the rise in interest rates.

☆ Jeffrey Gundlach says bonds are attractive now. Here's how he builds a portfolio with an 8% return
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said the bond market has become far more attractive than stocks, such that investors could get an 8% annualized return. Bond yields move inversely to their prices. Buying safe government bonds allows investors to shop for riskier, more opportunistic credits in the market, Gundlach said. Spreads on non-Treasurys have widened, including guaranteed mortgages, junk bond yields, emerging market debt and asset back securities, he added. It's far, far more attractive than stocks."

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