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☆ Will US house prices soar or plunge? These 5 experts are divided.
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-30 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

US home prices have shrugged off the surge in mortgage rates over the past 18 months. Homeowners don't want to sell and lose their cheap mortgages, while buyers don't want to overpay. Barbara Corcoran, Jeremy Grantham, and other experts are split on whether prices will soar or sink. The upshot has been mortgage rates doubling to over 7%, sparking an affordability crisis. Jeremy Grantham, Barbara Corcoran, David Rosenberg, and other experts have shared drastically different outlooks for home prices.

Persons: Barbara Corcoran, Jeremy Grantham, —, overpay, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service

☆ A 'litmus test' for a looming recession could come next quarter, says an economist who's been predicting a downturn for 18 months
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

He told CNBC in an interview the fourth quarter of this year would be the "litmus test" for his call. He added a recession typically starts two years after a rate hike cycle begins. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementVeteran economist David Rosenberg has been calling a recession for the last 18 months, and he isn't letting the current resilience in the US economy change his mind. "It hasn't materialized, dot dot dot, yet," Rosenberg told CNBC on Wednesday, in response to his bearish call.

Persons: David Rosenberg, —, Rosenberg, — Squawk Organizations: CNBC, Service, Rosenberg Research, US Federal Reserve, Energy, West Texas, Brent Locations: Toronto, Saudi Arabia, Russia

☆ The US consumer is starting to crack
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

AdvertisementAdvertisementEven as interest rates skyrocketed over the past 18 months, a good job market and strong consumer spending kept the US economy moving. However, there are growing signs that the strength of the US consumer is starting to crack. Earlier this month, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as expected. At the start of the rate increase, borrowers, like existing homeowners, had low mortgage interest rates locked in. Even dollar stores are starting to feel the pressure of more measured spending after initially benefitting from inflation as wealthier people looked for more value.

Persons: —, Morgan Stanley, It'll, Jerome Powell, Powell, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, United Auto Workers, National Association of Business Economics, Bank of America, Conference Board, JPMorgan, Bloomberg, Costco Locations: Michigan

☆ 'We've reached a new level of narcissism': Long-time bear David Rosenberg explains why a recession is still coming — and names 7 investments that can save investors from the pain
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-23 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Rosenberg continued: "But it's a false debate because the choice isn't between a soft landing and a recession. Consumers are the lifeblood of the US economy, and if they're forced to cut back on spending, Rosenberg thinks growth would quickly turn negative. Investors nervous about the economy should target stocks in four defensive parts of the market, Rosenberg said: consumer staples, healthcare, telecommunications, and utilities. "As growth is scarce, you want to own what's scarce, so you want to own growth stocks," Rosenberg said. "I'm probably much more bullish on growth than I am on value because value is very cyclical, and growth stocks tend to be valued on a longer-term earnings profile."

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, we've, Rosenberg isn't, hasn't, nonfarm payrolls, that's, Uncle Sam, " Rosenberg, they're, couldn't, he's, he'd Organizations: Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Technology, Fed Locations: YOLO

☆ 'I don't believe in fairy tales': A veteran economist shares 10 overlooked reasons why the US economy is bound to contract, even as Wall Street bails on recession calls
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

"I don't believe in fairy tales, and I don't believe in new eras," Rosenberg said in a recent interview with Insider. The resumption of student loan payments this fall will also cut into spending, Rosenberg predicted. As excess stimulus erodes, the consumer savings rate is sliding. Higher oil and gas prices are also hurting consumers, Rosenberg said. "And they need the money because they're seeing strains on their finances from this 525 basis point runup in rates start to bite into their debt service capacity."

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, they've, Rosenberg doesn't, it's, Louis Organizations: Bank of America, Rosenberg Research, Federal Reserve, of Locations: Saudi Arabia

☆ Ignore the Fed's inflation warning as it often gets things wrong, says top economist David Rosenberg
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Ignore the Fed's warning that interest rates may stay higher for longer, David Rosenberg said. The Fed misjudged the dot-com and housing bubbles as well as the inflation spike last year, he said. However, investors should ignore his messaging given the central bank's long history of getting things wrong, David Rosenberg says. Rosenberg was highlighting that, only two years ago, the Fed expected its benchmark interest rate to be under 1% at the end of 2023. The veteran economist has repeatedly sounded the alarm on the delayed impact of raising interest rates.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Jerome Powell, Rosenberg, Powell, Merrill Lynch, Ooops, Lucy, where's Organizations: Fed, Service, Rosenberg Research, North Locations: Wall, Silicon, North American

☆ A legendary economist who called the 2008 recession says another downturn is knocking on the door — and warns stocks will end up falling 40% by the end of this market cycle
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-16 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Legendary economist Gary Shilling says the US economy is headed toward a recession — that is, if we're not already in one. "The Fed wants to make sure they've killed inflation," Shilling said. Shilling, who called the 2008 recession, pointed out that recessions sometimes don't start until the Fed has already begun to cut rates. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisTrusted recession indicators are also signaling that a downturn is coming, Shilling said. The Conference BoardAs a result of the recession, Shilling expects stocks to fall significantly.

Persons: Gary Shilling, we're, It's, Shilling, Merrill Lynch, David Rosenberg, Louis, they're, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, Albert Edwards, Edwards Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Conference, Societe Generale Locations: there's

☆ China's tanking economy will hurt the US more than some experts think, top economist David Rosenberg says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's flailing economy could impact the US more than some experts think. That's because the US is a top foreign investor in China, economist David Rosenberg said. China also buys 40% of all exports from Chile, 34% of all exports from Australia, and 32% of all exports from Peru. The economic downfall will weigh negatively on the global economy, primarily through trade channels on countries with a high dependency on China," Rosenberg and Bakiskan said. The commodities trade in particular will feel the effects of China's economic problems, and countries that are top exporters of key metals are exposed, Rosenberg and Bakiskan said.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Atakan, Bakiskan, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, footholds Locations: China, Chile, Australia, Peru, Wall, Silicon, United States, Asia, Beijing

☆ The economy's safety net is about to disappear thanks to an oncoming perfect storm
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Consumer spending held up the US economy even as many worried about the prospect of a recession. Even as interest rates skyrocketed over the past 18 months, strong consumer spending kept the US economy moving. Higher rates start to biteLet's start with interest rates. Credit-card debt, in contrast, tends to move up and down with interest rates. That COVID cash stockpile helped support the economy despite rising interest rates and historically high inflation.

Persons: Barbie, Taylor Swift, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Morgan Stanley, Janet Yellen, Yellen, John David Rainey, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, We've, Piper, Nancy Lazar, Lazar Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, Credit, Federal Reserve Bank of New, CNBC, San Francisco Fed, Walmart, Fox News Digital Locations: Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Ukraine

☆ Janet Yellen says she's 'feeling very good' about a soft landing, joining Paul Krugman and Larry Summers in cheering on the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says she's "feeling very good" about chances of a US soft landing. "I think you'd have to say we're on a path that looks exactly like that," she said, per Bloomberg. Yellen joins Paul Krugman and Larry Summers in suggesting the US will avoid a recession. "I am feeling very good about that prediction," Yellen said on her way home from the G20 summit held in New Delhi, per Bloomberg. "I think you'd have to say we're on a path that looks exactly like that," she said, referring to hopes of a soft landing.

Persons: Janet Yellen, Yellen, Paul Krugman, Larry Summers, It's, Paul Krugman —, —, David Rosenberg, Leon Cooperman, Jeremy Grantham Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon, New Delhi

☆ The US consumer has been holding up the economy this summer by splurging on movies and concerts — but this may not last, a new survey indicates
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The strong consumer spending propping up the US economy may not last, a Bloomberg survey found. Over half of the respondents said they think US personal consumption will shrink in early 2024. High interest rates and a drawdown of pandemic-era savings could hit consumer spending. Since consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the US economy, any changes in the measure are a big deal. AdvertisementAdvertisementMeanwhile, JP Morgan predicted in an August 17 note that the stock market is set to fall as US consumer spending softens.

Persons: Jim Chanos, Anna Wong, James Knightley, David Rosenberg, JP Morgan Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Wall, Bloomberg Economics, ING, Federal Reserve Bank of San Locations: Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

☆ JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon says we've been 'spending like drunken sailors,' and that's a big risk to the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

"We've been spending money like drunken sailors around the world, this war in Ukraine is still going on," he said. Dimon joins a chorus of recent voices warning over the strong US economy powered by consumer spending. "We've been spending money like drunken sailors around the world, this war in Ukraine is still going on. Since consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the US economy, any changes to the measure are a big deal. AdvertisementAdvertisementAfter all, the resilience of the US consumer has kept the economy going even amid the Federal Reserve's relentless rate hike cycle since March last year.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, We've, Dimon, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Bloomberg, Wall, JPMorgan Locations: Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

☆ Investors would have made more money buying the S&P 500 instead of following 'Big Short' investor Michael Burry's tweet warnings, an expert says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors would have made more money buying the S&P 500 than following Michael Burry's stock-market warnings, said Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning. "Simply buying the S&P 500 instead of following Michael Burry's stock market warnings would have made an investor money each time with an average 6-month annualized gain of 34%. He was referring to gains delivered by the benchmark index in the periods that immediately followed a selection of Burry's tweets between 2019 and 2023. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe S&P 500 share index has climbed more than 16% so far in 2023, thanks in no small part to investor excitement over the rise of artificial-intelligence technologies. He's warned of an economic downturn since the first half of 2022, leading him to place a bet with a notional value of $1.6 billion against the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 last quarter.

Persons: Michael Burry's, Charlie Bilello, Burry, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, David Rosenberg, OpenAI's ChatGPT, Burry hasn't, He's Organizations: Creative Planning, Service, Asset Management, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Nasdaq Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Experts are split on whether stocks will beat the 'September Effect' – Ed Yardeni warns of pain while Bank of America sees room for gains
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-10 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

September is historically considered the worst month of the year for stocks, in what is known as the "September Effect." But this year, market experts appear divided over whether US equities will repeat the pattern or defy it. AdvertisementAdvertisementEd Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research"On Sunday, we observed that September is a good month for picking apples. Among things that could go wrong for investors this month, Yardeni highlighted rising oil prices, inflation risks, and China's faltering economy. David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg ResearchIn contrast, top economist Rosenberg has long-warned about a looming crash in in stocks.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, it's, Santa Claus, Tom Lee, Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Lee, we're, Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier, Jeremy Siegel, Wharton, Siegel, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Organizations: Service, CFRA Research, Yardeni, Investor, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, " Bank of America, Fed, Rosenberg Research Locations: Wall, Silicon, Septembers, Santa

☆ Insider Today: Gen Z is out on college
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter. In today's big story, we're looking at why college isn't part of the plan for some Gen Zers. Between skyrocketing tuition costs and underwhelming salaries, some Gen Zers are skipping college altogether, writes Charlotte Lytton. A recent survey found that 40% of business leaders think recent Gen Z college grads are unprepared when they enter the workforce. The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, senior editor and anchor, in New York City.

Persons: Dan DeFrancesco, weren't, Zers, Chelsea Jia Feng, Zers aren't, Charlotte Lytton, It's, Alix Earle, NFTs, TikTok hasn't, Earle, Alix Earle's TikToks, @alixearle, Spencer Platt, Goldman Sachs, we've, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Kevin Dietsch, Marc Benioff, they're begrudgingly, Arantza Pena Popo, Corizon, Sen, Elizabeth Warren, James Webb, Stephen King, Holly Gibner, Rice, Naga Siu, Hallam Bullock, Lisa Ryan Organizations: Service, Electric, Wall, Tech, University of Miami, Getty, JPMorgan, Amazon, James, James Webb Telescope, Hubble, NASA, ESA, CSA, Costco, Kirkland Locations: Wall, Silicon, NFTs, Blackstone, Bridgewater, Seoul, New York City, San Diego, London, New York

☆ One economist still feels a recession is looming — because corporate borrowing costs could shoot up, thanks to rising interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Fidelity International's Salman Ahmed is predicting a recession on the back of high interest rates, per Bloomberg. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe increased cost of borrowing due to higher interest rates means companies may not be able to invest in growth. Consumer spending also typically falls when interest rates rise. By the end of 2008, its benchmark interest rate — the Fed Funds Rate was close to 0%. The Fed has been hiking interest rates relentlessly since March 2022 to combat red-hot inflation as the pandemic receded.

Persons: Salman Ahmed, Ahmed, Fidelity's Ahmed —, —, Ahmed isn't, David Rosenberg Organizations: Fidelity, Bloomberg, Service, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Opinion | A Strong Job Market Doesn’t Mean the Economy Is Recession-Proof
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

In comparison the job market has been, as I said, relatively strong. Pascal Michaillat, an economist at the University of California, Santa Cruz, likes to measure the tightness of the job market by comparing the number of job vacancies with the number of unemployed people. The labor market is efficient, he contends, when the numbers are equal — that is, when the ratio of vacancies to unemployed is exactly 1. One scenario is that the labor market remains tight for longer than it would otherwise, but eventually cracks. In fact, there are already some signs of cracking in the labor market.

Persons: payrolls, Pascal Michaillat, ”, David Rosenberg Organizations: Economic, of Labor Statistics, University of California, Rosenberg Research Locations: Santa Cruz, Toronto

☆ Economist David Rosenberg says a recession will hit in 6 months. Here are his 7 best quotes from a new interview.
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Top economist David Rosenberg expects a US recession to hit within 6 months. The Fed's 11 interest rate hikes amount to one of the most aggressive tightening campaigns ever, and to the economist, that doesn't bode well for the coming months. "We've had the biggest interest rate shock since 1981, if I'm not mistaken. "Most of these recessions [since World War II] were not caused by a fiscal shock, but interest rate shocks. "We've had a massive interest rate shock, we haven't seen the full impact yet.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Blockworks, Blockwork's Jack Farley, doesn't bode, We've, I'm, impact's, we're, it's Organizations: Morning, Rosenberg Research, Associates, Fed Locations: China, Federal, happenstance

☆ It would be a 'miracle' to escape a recession and the erosion of credit is similar to 2008, top economist David Rosenberg warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US looks likely to tip into a recession in about six months, according to David Rosenberg. The top economist warned that the deterioration of credit quality is reminiscent of 2008's mortgage crisis. "I think that if we escape this little recession, it'll be a miracle," he told Blockworks' Forward Guidance. "Every penny of the stimulus checks got spent." "We just replaced credit cards with what happened with subprime mortgages 15 years ago," Rosenberg said.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Blockworks, We've, I'm, impact's, there's, Morgan Stanley, Seth Carpenter, we'll, Banks, Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Associates, Federal, Bank of America Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Macro equation setting up for recession, warns David Rosenberg
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMacro equation setting up for recession, warns David RosenbergDavid Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research, joins 'Fast Money' to talk the U.S. economy, the impact of interest rates, slowing employment growth and more.

Persons: David Rosenberg David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Organizations: Rosenberg Research

☆ Stocks are poised to tumble - and many Americans are 'prisoners in their own homes' after mortgage rates soared, top economist David Rosenberg says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Stocks are set to slump and many Americans are "prisoners in their own homes," David Rosenberg says. Rising rates have driven up mortgage costs, deterring many sellers, the economist says. The Rosenberg Research president laid out several reasons why he believes asset prices have soared to unsustainable highs. The central bank might keep forging ahead with further hikes to interest rates as a result, turning the screw on the stock market and the economy, he said. He underlined the Fed's decision to cut interest rates to almost zero in 2020 and 2021, which allowed homeowners to lock in long-term mortgages at rates of 2% to 3%.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Cash, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Rosenberg, North, Fed, New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq Locations: Wall, Silicon, North American

☆ Wall Street is declaring victory too early — the US is still headed for a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

In theory, these higher interest rates push down demand and slow inflation by forcing companies to cut prices to attract stretched-thin customers. And Americans have been spending right through the higher interest rates: Personal consumption expenditures and retail sales numbers have continued to forge upward. But eventually, this attitude will wane as people realize that the higher rates aren't a flash in the pan. The Treasury yield curve measures the different interest rates that are paid out on various bonds issued by the US government. It's the same story every time, both Kantrowitz and Rosenberg say: Investors are bad at pricing in a recession before it unfolds.

Persons: Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Milton Friedman, Bob Doll, Doll, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Tom Essaye, Essaye, Granger, Kantrowitz, Jerome Powell, William Edwards Organizations: Philadelphia Fed, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Consumer, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Silicon Valley Bank, Rosenberg Research, Fed, Auto, Wall, CPI, Institute for Supply Management's, Treasury, Royal Bank of Canada Locations: Silicon, YOLO

☆ Forget about a recession sinking the stock market. Rising rates threaten to spoil the party just like they did in 2022.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-19 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Yields on 10-year Treasury yields have surged well above 4%. With both stock valuations and interest rates high, stock prices could continue to fall. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes surged to 15-year highs this week, surpassing 4.3% for the first time since late 2007. This has put a damper on what was a 20% rally for the S&P 500 from January to the end of July. The median S&P 500 year-end price target among major Wall Street strategists is 4,300, just below the index's current price around 4,370.

Persons: Stocks, Adam Turnquist, Treasurys, It's, John Lynch, they've, Tom Essaye, Lynch, Turnquist, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Greg Boutle, Cantor Fitzgerald's Eric Johnston, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz Organizations: Treasury, LPL, Bank of America, Comerica Wealth, Wall Street, Rosenberg Research, RBC, BNP

☆ A former BlackRock stock chief shares 3 indicators that tell him it's too early to abandon his recession call despite the economy's strength — and warns the stock market's rally is doomed for a revers
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-12 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The inverted yield curve and The Conference Board's LEI are two indicators that inform his view. Instead, investors should be paying attention to indicators like the Treasury yield curve, The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, and money growth. Here's the yield curve. And the start of a recession typically comes a bunch of of months after the yield curve inverts. The yield curve didn't invert until less than a year ago.

Persons: Bob Doll, LEI, Doll, Wall, — Bank of America's Michael Gapen, Michael Feroli —, we're, Louis, It's, Rosenberg Research's David Rosenberg, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Greg Boutle, Tom Lee Organizations: Federal Reserve, — Bank of America's, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Fed, Louis Investors, Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg, BNP, Institute for Supply, Institute for Supply Management, of Labor Statistics Locations: Wells

☆ Top economist David Rosenberg says Bill Ackman's bet against Treasurys could end as badly as his Herbalife wager
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

David Rosenberg took a jab at billionaire investor Bill Ackman for his bet against US Treasurys. His view contrasts to Ackman who revealed he's shorting 30-year US Treasurys as a hedge against high inflation. That contrasts to Ackman's view of stubbornly high inflation, which has led him to short US Treasurys. Bond prices tend to have an inverse relationship to interest rates. When interest rates go up, bonds usually fall.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Bill Ackman, Ackman, he's, Rosenberg, Fran Fed's Organizations: US, Service, Rosenberg Research, Reserve, Ackman's, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Federal Reserve, Pershing, stoke Locations: Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

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