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But even bullish firms like Goldman Sachs agree that further upside is very limited. But some strategists think this year's robust rally has legs, including those at Goldman Sachs. Only one firm, Deutsche Bank, set an S&P 500 target that wasn't exceeded in the first half of the year. Though that bear case may sound compelling, Goldman Sachs doesn't buy into it. Below are those companies, along with the ticker, market capitalization, and upside to price target for each.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin Organizations: Investors, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan
Goldman Sachs' David Kostin estimated that the AI-induced upside for US equities could be over 14%. In a recent report, Goldman Sachs analysts shared 20 stocks with exposure to the rise of AI. Rising AI adoption could mean over 14% upside for US equitiesObviously, an AI-induced economic stimulus also means good news for the US equity market. "And the potential upside could be even larger if the uplift in GDP and revenue growth is also accompanied by an increase in corporate profit margins." 20 stocks poised to capitalize on the rise of AIIn the report, Goldman Sachs analysts shared 20 stocks across nine sectors that are exposed to the rising adoption of artificial intelligence.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Joseph Briggs, Briggs, Goldman, Kostin, it's
Goldman Sachs has a "Rule of 10" for investing that could serve traders well as they head into the second half of the year. While the poor market breadth this year was significant, Goldman Sachs said the trend is typical of most recent years. According to Goldman Sachs, it's vital to identify those names that can lead the market. Now, Goldman Sachs has updated its "Rule of 10" screen to not only identify those stocks posting faster-than-average sales growth, but net income too. Intuit is also expected to post strong net income growth of 15% through 2025, coupled with sales growth of 13% per annum.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, Chipotle, Fortinet, Paycom Organizations: Bank of America, Intuit Locations: Fortinet, TurboTax
Most of the S&P 500's gains have historically come from the top seven to 10 names. According to Goldman Sachs, these companies were able to grow sales quickly and consistently. But these stocks do have a commonality that they can attribute their success to: the ability to grow sales quickly and consistently, reads the note. In conclusion, identifying the next set of companies that can sustain sales growth by over 10% could be a winning strategy. Each stock includes its price-to-earnings ratio for the next 12 months, and its sales and net income CAGR between 2022 to 2025.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia
Goldman Sachs has newly identified 39 stocks that offer high returns relative to their risk. They expect the median stock in their basket to nearly triple the median S&P 500 name. The S&P 500 had rallied 13% year-to-date as of Tuesday. Goldman's stock picks are contained in its recently rebalanced High Sharpe Ratio basket (GSTHSHRP). Below is a list of the 39 stocks recently added to the High Sharpe Ratio basket.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Sharpe, Kostin
Investors looking for big gains while also resting easy at night can look at these stocks, Goldman Sachs says. While the market rally stalled somewhat last week, the Nasdaq Composite remains higher by 28% in 2023, while the S & P 500 has notched a 13% gain. Still, investors seeking to ready their portfolios for further volatility ahead could search for risk-adjusted returns using the Sharpe ratio. In other words, Goldman proposes these stocks will give the biggest returns while allowing you to sleep easier at night. Goldman Sachs revisited its High Sharpe Ratio basket, adding 39 new stocks, and retaining 11 holdings.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Wall, Sharpe, Goldman, David Kostin, Michael Bloom Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Newell Brands, Disney, Capital, Cisco, Bank of America
At the midpoint this would raise $298 million, with a fully diluted market value of $2.1 billion, according to Renaissance Capital. At the midpoint of the proposed range, that would raise $328 million with a market value of $1.5 billion. "The IPO market is definitely opening up," he said. Goldman Sachs' David Kostin has also noted an improved IPO market. The bad news: the stock dropped the day after the IPO to roughly $38 and has remained in that range.
Persons: IPOs, Matt Kennedy, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, Lynn Martin, That's, Santosh Rao, Rao Organizations: NYSE, Insurance, Renaissance, Kodiak Gas Services, Renaissance Capital, Goldman, Foods, CNBC, Manhattan Venture Partners Locations: Renaissance Capital, U.S, Canada, Cava, Fogo, Chao
In a recent report, Goldman Sachs identified 50 stocks expected to grow their profitability. The median stock should increase profitability by 13% over the next year, well above the S&P 500. But according to a recent report from Goldman Sachs, it may seem that the worst of this profits recession is now behind us. 50 stocks with the highest-consensus ROE growthIn the report, Kostin and his team identified a basket of 50 stocks expected to have the highest ROE growth in the market over the next 12 months. The 50 stocks Goldman Sachs believes will increase their returns on equity the most over the next 12 months are below, along with their ticker, sector, and consensus ROE growth expectations.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, ROE, Kostin Organizations: Wall Street, Kostin, Federal Reserve Locations: ROE
Corporate profitability has likely bottomed in this tough economy, but don't expect companies to expand margins and profits significantly in the next 12 months, a Goldman Sachs' analysis shows. "Looking forward, although S & P 500 ROE has potentially troughed, substantial ROE growth appears unlikely in the near term. Goldman looked at companies where its own analysts expect ROE to expand the most over the next 12 months. Here are some of the stocks in the basket: Disney will increase ROE by 21% over the next 12 months, Goldman expects. Over the long term, Goldman believes a new phenomenon could help get overall profits growing again: artificial intelligence.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, David Kostin, ROE Organizations: Facebook
The S&P 500 has entered bull-market territory thanks to a small handful of tech stocks. Goldman Sachs says that could actually mean good things to come for the rest of the market. Goldman Sachs analysts led by Chief US Equity Strategist David Kostin set out to answer that question. It's no wonder, then, that Goldman Sachs has upped its guidance for where the market will end the year. Below are the 24 stocks that Kostin found which have YTD EPS revisions above the median of 9%.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, YTD Organizations: Investors, Big Tech, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Chief US, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Goldman Sachs lifted its year-end target on the S & P 500 and sees market laggards playing catch up with this year's leaders. The Wall Street firm boosted its 2023 forecast for the S & P 500 to 4,500, which represents about 5% upside from current levels and is a 12.5% increase from Goldman's previous target of 4,000. Signs of such a shift have recently emerged as cyclical stocks have outperformed their defensive counterparts lately, but plenty of cyclicals have missed out, Goldman said. To find opportunities among the laggards, Goldman screened the Russell 3000 Index, looking for cyclical stocks with market caps greater than $2 billion. It found a list of names with valuations below the S & P 500 and improving fundamentals, demonstrated by improved 2024 earnings revisions.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, David Kostin Organizations: Fed, Equity Investment, CNO Financial, Everest Re, RenaissanceRe Holdings Locations: Cleveland
But hedge funds and mutual funds have lagged the broader market this year. Although hedge funds and mutual funds may be trailing the market for the moment, don't count them out just yet. Here's what hedge funds and mutual funds are buying, and why investors may want to steal a page from their playbook. Beyond financials and tech, hedge funds and mutual funds moved in tandem across the rest of the market, turning their attention to defensive equities. Among all of those funds, Goldman Sachs found there were nine stocks that they deemed "shared favorites" between two different Goldman Sachs indexes.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, Russell, Consumer Staples Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Tech, Mutual, Mastercard, Visa, Services, Consumer, Utilities, Communication Services, Healthcare, Mutual Fund Locations: financials
Goldman Sachs is boosting its year-end target on the S & P 500 to 4,500, citing a broadening rally that goes beyond the largest tech names. The new target represents about 5% upside from current levels on the broad-market index and is an increase from Goldman's previous target of 4,000. The S & P 500 is up nearly 12% this year. Though a handful of Big Tech stocks — namely Apple , Microsoft , Alphabet , Amazon , Nvidia , Meta and Tesla — are some of the highest fliers in the S & P 500 this year, other sectors are perking up . Check out CNBC's Market Strategist Survey here to see Wall Street's latest year-end targets.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, Tesla, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Big Tech, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe impact of A.I. will benefit all companies in the long term, says Goldman's David KostinDavid Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss why the A.I. boom could fuel a rally in the S&P, how Kostin got to this thesis, and more.
Persons: Goldman's David Kostin David Kostin, Goldman Sachs, Kostin
Watch CNBC's full interview with Goldman's David Kostin
  + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Goldman's David KostinDavid Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss why the A.I. boom could fuel a rally in the S&P, how Kostin got to this thesis, and more.
Persons: Goldman's David Kostin David Kostin, Goldman Sachs, Kostin
Goldman Sachs shared the 50 stocks that hedge fund managers are bullish on now. "Mega-cap tech has been a performance tailwind for hedge funds," Kostin wrote in the note. 50 stocks that hedge funds love nowAlthough mimicking hedge fund managers' every move hasn't been a winning strategy in 2023, investing in just their favorite picks would have led to significant outperformance. Hedge fund managers' top holdings have risen 17% year-to-date, which is even better than the S&P 500's gain. Goldman Sachs recently analyzed the top holdings of 740 hedge funds that have a combined $2.2 trillion in equities.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, it's, Kostin, Russell, hasn't Organizations: Mutual
A strange year: Halfway through, there is a wide difference of opinion on earnings Strategists analyze the macroeconomy to come up with an estimate for corporate earnings. They analyze individual company performance to come up with earnings estimates, which are then aggregated into an overall estimate by agencies like FactSet or Refinitiv. The S & P 500 reported $218 in earnings in 2022, according to Refinitiv. This highlights the difference between analysts and strategists: Analysts have models for earnings of individual companies, not the macroeconomy as strategists do. However, in this case, their reticence to slash earnings estimates in expectation of an imminent recession or a banking crisis has proved to be correct.
Persons: Morgan, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Mike Wilson's, John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer, David Kostin, Brian Belski, Jonathan Golub, Lori Calvasina, Savita Subramanian, Chris Harvey, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Hatzius Organizations: Here's, BMO, Credit, RBC, Wells, Bloomberg, Bank Locations: U.S
Goldman Sachs identified the tech stocks that mutual funds are betting big on right now. Diversified mutual funds aren't supposed to have more than 5% of their assets in any one stock. According to the Investment Company Act of 1940, diversified mutual funds aren't supposed to have more than 5% of their assets invested in any one company — otherwise, they aren't diversified. But that can be difficult when Big Tech stocks comprise such a large portion of indexes across the market. The following 16 tech stocks are overweights in the more-than 500 mutual funds that Goldman Sachs evaluates.
Goldman Sachs is still projecting solid economic growth in 2023 and 2024. The US economy seems to be running on fumes after last quarter's anemic GDP report, but Goldman Sachs still believes that there won't be a recession in the next year. David Kostin, the chief US equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, noted in a recent report that inflation is steadily slowing. Regardless, Goldman Sachs is betting that there won't be a big spike in jobless claims this year. If the US economy continues to expand, the S&P 500 should stay afloat, in Goldman Sachs' view.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Goldman's David Kostin on market outlook amid debt ceiling talksDavid Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the looming debt ceiling and the broader market.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldman Sachs' David Kostin expects the market will remain flat amid debt ceiling talksDavid Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the looming debt ceiling and the broader market.
Big tech is still the hope in a sideways stock market
  + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
With the S & P 500 down 1% this month, and essentially flat for the quarter, the best you can say is that the overall trend has moved from down in 2022 to mostly sideways in 2023. Lowry, the nation's oldest technical analysis service, has taken to calling the rally in tech "the mega-cap mirage." Lowry noted over the weekend that "core indicators of market health have demonstrated significant deterioration from the early February market high through recent days." Even as the S & P 500 was near a new rally high for the year recently, the S & P Midcap 400 and S & P Smallcap 600 were 12% and 17% below their February 2nd highs last week. Only 46% of S & P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving averages, hardly a sign of broad market strength.
David Kostin at Goldman Sachs says investors should buy stocks that return a lot of cash. With the economy apparently losing steam, he wrote that companies that return cash to their shareholders will become appealing investments in the months to come. But Kostin wrote that today's economic climate is going to change all that. "During the last decade, stocks paying high and stable dividends have outperformed those with the largest buybacks when underlying dividend growth was stronger than buyback growth," Kostin wrote. Still, he says conditions will favor cash-returners broadly, and the following 16 stocks return cash to shareholders at a far greater rate than their peers.
But that unusual calm in markets may be masking serious concerns about economic growth, according to David Kostin, the chief US equity strategist at Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs"Mixed economic data and uncertainty around banking stress have led the equity market to downgrade its pricing of the US economic growth outlook in recent weeks," Kostin wrote. Goldman Sachs' GDP estimate (the blue-gray columns) is higher than that of the consensus (the black dots). Another sector Goldman Sachs is bullish on is energy, even though it's economically sensitive. Goldman Sachs is also neutral on the following sectors and industries: software & services, financials, consumer discretionary (excluding autos & durables), utilities, real estate, and consumer durables & apparel.
Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist broke down the bull case for metal and mining stocks. David Kostin points to US companies that will benefit from demand driven by China's reopening. Goldman Sachs analysts forecast a 30% increased in the S&P GSCI, an index that broadly measures the performance of the commodities sector, within the next year. It's not just Kostin who is anticipating immense growth from China's reopening. The International Monetary Fund forecasts China will become the biggest driver of global economic growth over the next five years.
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