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Billionaire investor Ray Dalio believes the surging 10-year Treasury yield could rise even higher to the 5% threshold as he sees hotter inflation for longer. "It would seem that something like a 5% rate, and there's nothing precise about that, but in that neighborhood, you know, would be maybe about right ... with the risk higher," Dalio said Tuesday at the Greenwich Economic Forum in Greenwich CT. The 10-year Treasury yield, which serves as a benchmark for mortgage rates, jumped to 4.76% on Tuesday, i ts highest level since 2007. Deficit risk Then Dalio said the imbalance of government debt's supply and demand picture also caused yields to go higher. "When you look at the expected returns for this moment, cash is a relatively attractive asset class at this moment," Dalio said.
Persons: Ray Dalio, Dalio, That's Organizations: Greenwich Economic, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Bridgewater Locations: Greenwich, Greenwich CT
Ray Dalio is worried about America's borrowing binge and economic growth cooling. Dalio has previously flagged interest rates, civil unrest, and geopolitical tensions as concerns. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementRay Dalio rang the alarm on the ballooning federal debt, and warned the US economy is set to slump, in a CNBC interview on Thursday. Dalio, an official mentor to Bridgewater's three co-chief investors, cautioned the mountain of federal debt and other challenges could mean US growth dwindles to zero.
Persons: Ray Dalio, Dalio, Organizations: Service, CNBC, Bridgewater Associates, Association, Federal Reserve Locations: Russia, China, Dalio
"You've got to take them at their word that they want to get another 25" basis points, said the asset management giant's CIO of global fixed income. BlackRock fixed income chief Rick Rieder thinks the Federal Reserve can stop raising interest rates, though it probably won't. The fed funds rate, used as a benchmark for many forms of short-term debt, currently is targeted in a range between 5.25%-5.50%. "I love commercial paper," Rieder said. Rieder said he expects the Fed to start cutting at some point, but probably not until the latter half of 2024.
Persons: You've, you've, Rieder, Rick Rieder, Rebecca Patterson, Ray Organizations: Alpha, BlackRock, Economic Education, Delivering Alpha, Council for Economic Education, Bridgewater Associates, AA, Fed Locations: BlackRock
Ray Dalio says the U.S. is going to have a debt crisis
  + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio is watching closely the "risky" U.S. fiscal situation. "We're going to have a debt crisis in this country," the founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates said in an interview with CNBC's Sara Eisen that aired on Thursday. U.S. debt levels surpassed $33 trillion for the first time this month as lawmakers negotiate a U.S. spending bill before the Oct. 1 deadline. Dalio is concerned there are more headwinds for the economy than just high debt levels, saying growth could fall to zero, give or take 1% or 2%. "I think you're going to get a meaningful slowing of the economy," Dalio said.
Persons: Ray Dalio, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Dalio Organizations: Bridgewater Associates, Association, Treasury Department, Investors Locations: U.S
Ray Dalio, Bridgewater's co-chairman and co-chief investment officer, speaks during the Skybridge Capital SALT New York 2021 conference in New York City, U.S., September 15, 2021. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 28 (Reuters) - Ray Dalio believes the United States is going to have a debt crisis and is closely watching the "risky" fiscal situation, CNBC reported on Thursday, citing an interview with the billionaire investor. The country's debt has been under the spotlight in recent months after political brinkmanship around the debt limit earlier this year brought the U.S. close to a default. Though the situation was averted, such partisan conflicts could hurt the country's fiscal reputation, analysts have said. Earlier this week, Fitch's peer Moody's said a government shutdown would harm the country's credit in a stern warning.
Persons: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater's, Brendan McDermid, Fitch, Moody's, Pritam Biswas, Shinjini Organizations: REUTERS, CNBC, Bridgewater Associates, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, United States, Bengaluru
Higgins' new book, "Burn the Boats," urges people to forego the backup plan to fulfill their goals. AdvertisementAdvertisementSide hustlers and would-be entrepreneurs will often have a backup plan to their dreams, just in case things don't work out. But that safety net might be preventing them from achieving their full potential, according to a book by Matt Higgins, an investor and guest shark on "Shark Tank." Higgins' book, titled "Burn the Boats," urges entrepreneurs to find the right moment, and then go all-in on their goals. Mainly though, you have to learn to let go when things don't go your way.
Persons: Matt Higgins, Higgins, , Rudolph Giuliani's, Stephen Ross, you'll, Ray Dalio, Bill Gates Organizations: RSE Ventures, Service, Magnolia Bakery, New York City, Lower Manhattan Development Corporation, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, RSE Locations: Queens , New York, New York
The inflation threat isn't over and interest rates won't sink overnight, Bridgewater's co-CIO says. Karen Karniol-Tambour sees little reason for rate cuts with a strong economy and sticky inflation. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. Indeed, the Fed may realize that inflation isn't fading, and markets are pricing in rate cuts that it's uncomfortable making, Karniol-Tambour said. Even so, bond investors are pricing in a "pretty good number of rate cuts" starting next year, Karniol-Tambour said.
Persons: Bridgewater's, Karen Karniol, Tambour, David Rubenstein, Jerome Powell, Ray Dalio, Nir Bar Dea, CIOs, Greg Jensen, Bob Prince Organizations: Service, Bridgewater Associates, Bloomberg Locations: Wall, Silicon
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio is sure that artificial intelligence will soon be a "great disruptor" in all of our lives — for both better and worse. "All these changes are going to happen in the next five years," Dalio, the founder of hedge fund giant Bridgewater Associates, added. I mean that you're going to see [changes] next year ... the next year, [even bigger] changes. That could open up a lane of opportunity for workers, who can learn and use AI skills to make some extra cash. Whether you're excited, curious or flat-out scared, "now would be the time to increase your knowledge," she added.
Persons: Ray Dalio, Dalio, ChatGPT, they're, Susan Gonzales, Gonzales Organizations: Bridgewater Associates, Alliance, Television Producers, CNBC
Ray Dalio speaks during the 2023 Forbes Iconoclast Summit at Pier 60 on June 12, 2023 in New York City. U.S. billionaire Ray Dalio says new investors should have a diversified portfolio as economic and geopolitical headwinds persist. "I would like to have diversification, because what I don't know is going to be much greater than what I do know," said Dalio, founder of one of the world's largest hedge funds, Bridgewater Associates. "Pay attention to the implications of the great disruptions that are going to take place because the world will be radically different in five years. And it's going to become radically different year by year," he explained.
Persons: Ray Dalio Organizations: Forbes, Bridgewater Associates, Milken Institute Asia Summit Locations: New York City . U.S, Singapore
CNBC Daily Open: Wall Street versus main street
  + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The mood on Wall Street, however, is markedly different. Does Wall Street know something that ordinary U.S. consumers don't? In that open space between breaths, equilibrium between Wall Street and main street may be reached.
Persons: Spencer Platt, there's, Edward Jones, Mona Mahajan, CNBC's, Mahajan, Ray Dalio's, Greg Bassuk Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, CNBC, University of Michigan, Consumers, Survey, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow Locations: New York City
CNBC Daily Open: Wall Street disagrees with main street
  + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. [PRO] FOMC meeting this weekThe Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday will be the main event to keep an eye on for this week. "Investors remained upbeat about the outlook for stocks and the economy in August," according to a Vanguard Investor Expectations Survey. In that open space between breaths, equilibrium between Wall Street and main street may be reached.
Persons: Gabby Jones, Hong, Kospi, Joe Biden, there's, Edward Jones, Mona Mahajan, CNBC's, Mahajan, Ray, Greg Bassuk Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Dow Jones, Index, Nikkei, China, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, U.S, Initiative, FedEx, University of Michigan, Consumers, Survey, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow Locations: New York, Asia, Pacific, China Venture, China, India, East, Europe
Three market experts have cited concern that growing US debt will send interest rates up. US debt supply will only grow, as a recession would expand the federal deficit, Jeffrey Gundlach added. The warnings come as federal deficits have exploded in recent years, sharply elevating the trajectory of US debt. AdvertisementAdvertisementThough interest rate gains would help drive demand for bonds, they make debt servicing more costly. Bill GrossThe "bond king" who drove Pimco's fixed-income success had similar apprehensions about the debt market.
Persons: Ray Dalio, Bill Gross, Jeffrey Gundlach, Dalio, Pimco's, Gross, I'm, Gundlach Organizations: Service, Treasury Department, Federal Reserve, Wall Street, Bridgewater Associates, Milken Institute Asia Summit, Treasury, Fox Business Locations: Wall, Silicon, Singapore
Less than a year after retiring, Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, is threatening his former colleagues with the one thing they have worked hard to prevent: his return. The billionaire investor, who is 74, doesn’t necessarily want to come back to run the firm he founded 50 years ago. Bridgewater’s main fund has been on a downward slide since Mr. Dalio’s retirement. Some of Bridgewater’s top staff and board members, including its chief executive, Nir Bar Dea, whom Mr. Dalio appointed, have repeatedly told him that they will quit if he interferes. They fear that Mr. Dalio might use the proposed fund as a way to come back and reassert control, according to people briefed on internal deliberations but not authorized to speak publicly.
Persons: Ray Dalio, Dalio, Dalio’s, Nir Bar Dea Organizations: Bridgewater Associates Locations: Bridgewater
Insider Today: Your knockoff's hidden cost
  + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +7 min
Tech: What could become of VMware employees when Broadcom's acquisition closes. What could become of VMware employees when Broadcom's acquisition closes. AdvertisementAdvertisementSo, instead of visiting the company's website, you head to one of the many e-commerce sites offering knockoffs. 3 things in techRaghu Raghuram VMwareLeaked email: The fate of VMware employees as Broadcom acquisition closes. The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, senior editor and anchor, in New York City.
Persons: Sen, Mitt Romney, Chelsea Jia Feng, Insider's Jennifer Ortakales Dawkins, Counterfeits, Birkin, Dow Jones, Michael M, Ray Dalio, Raghu, , chatbot, Brooks Kraft, Vivek, crowdfunding, Joe Raedle, JW Anderson, Molly Goddard, Julia Pugachevsky, Dan DeFrancesco, Naga Siu, Hallam Bullock, Lisa Ryan Organizations: Service, Tech, VMware, Yorkers, Bridgewater Associates, Broadcom, Apple, Brooks Kraft LLC, Burberry, Riot Fest Chicago, Foo Fighters, Postal Service, Cutie, Happy National Hispanic, Costa Rica Blue Locations: Wall, Silicon, New York, Queens, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Spain, New York City, San Diego, London
Ray Dalio, billionaire and founder of Bridgewater Associates LP, speaks during the Milken Institute Conference Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesAs concerns mount over rising interest rates and inflation levels, billionaire investor Ray Dalio says he prefers to hold cash for now, not bonds. "Temporarily, right now, cash I think is good … and the interest rates are fine. I don't think [it] will be sustained that way," Dalio told an audience at the Milken Institute Asia Summit in Singapore on Thursday. But the real problem comes when individuals or investors don't hold the bonds, because it comes as a supply-demand, one man's debts or another man's assets," he explained. Dalio cautioned that investors will sell their bonds if they are not receiving real interest rates that are high enough.
Persons: Ray Dalio, Dalio, Dalio's Organizations: Bridgewater Associates, Milken Institute, Bloomberg, Getty, Milken Institute Asia Summit, Treasury Locations: Singapore
"As cash yields remain elevated and inflation has cooled significantly from last year's levels, cash yields moved into positive territory on a real, inflation-adjusted basis after a few years of negative real yields," said Veronica Willis, global investment strategist at the firm. The pros weigh in on whether it's a good idea to stay in cash for the remainder of the year. Cash to 'outperform' stocks In a Sept. 7 note, Barclays said it believes cash will, in the fourth quarter, outperform stocks for a second straight quarter. So, for a second straight quarter, we prefer the company of cash over stocks and bonds," Barclays wrote, describing major asset classes as "still unattractive." "If short-term interest rates fall, short-term investments or cash investors will need to reinvest at a lower rate, reducing future returns.
Persons: it's, Veronica Willis, Cash, David Kostin, CNBC's, JPMorgan, Ray Dalio, Willis, Schroders, , Balakrishner, Michael Bloom Organizations: U.S . Federal, Treasury, Fargo Investment Institute, Barclays, Billionaire, Bridgewater Associates, Milken Institute Asia Summit, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute Locations: Fargo, U.S, Singapore, Wells Fargo
Arts Executive to Lead Pioneer Works
  + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Melena Ryzik | More About Melena Ryzik | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Mara Manus, a former executive director for the New York State Council on the Arts, will become the chief executive officer at Pioneer Works, the nonprofit cultural center in Brooklyn, its board of directors announced on Tuesday. Manus, who will start in October, replaces the executive director Maxine Dalio, who left at the end of last year, and the interim chief Jill Eisenhard. She will work closely with the artist Dustin Yellin, the founder of Pioneer Works; Gabriel Florenz, its founding artistic director; and the astrophysicist Dr. Janna Levin, the chief science officer. The appointment marks a pivotal moment for Pioneer Works, which is housed in a former iron works factory in the Red Hook section of Brooklyn. Lately its ambition has grown; in a major capital project, it now plans to open a publicly accessible roof deck observatory — a rarity in New York City.
Persons: Mara Manus, Maxine Dalio, Jill Eisenhard, Dustin Yellin, Gabriel Florenz, Janna Levin Organizations: New York State Council, Arts, Pioneer Works Locations: Brooklyn, Manus, New York City
Burning Man’s libertarian dream gets reality check
  + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Vehicles are seen departing the Burning Man festival in Black Rock City, Nevada, U.S., September 4, 2023. REUTERS/Matt Mills McKnight Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Sept 5 (Reuters Breakingviews) - “Exodus Operations have officially begun” is the self-important way organizers described allowing over 60,000 mud-bound attendees to leave Burning Man on Monday. The anarcho-arts festival’s rain-soaked disaster highlights the tension between its founding libertarian ethos and smoothly running operations of this size. Burning Man is the latest, after freak rainstorms turned its usually arid desert venue into a mud-pit on Saturday, necessitating a shelter-in-place order. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Matt Mills McKnight, , rainstorms, Elon Musk, Ray Dalio, Grover Norquist, Robert Cyran, Hong Kong, Jonathan Guliford, Sharon Lam Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Operations, X, Intel’s, Hong, Thomson Locations: Rock City , Nevada, U.S, Woodstock
Hundreds of flights have landed in Black Rock City for Burning Man — tech bros' favorite party. AdvertisementAdvertisementOver 880 flights descended on Black Rock Desert's pop-up airport this week as the playa opened shop for Burning Man. Jettly CEO Justin Crabbe told Insider in 2019 that the roundtrip flight from New York to Black Rock City cost $55,000. A Burning Man spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment ahead of publication. According to Burner Express' website, other air carriers can fly into Black Rock City, but those who wish to must email and register with the company in advance.
Persons: Elon Musk, Meta's Mark Zuckerberg, Ray Dalio, doesn't, Justin Crabbe, Alex Sgarlata, Sgarlata, Kathleen Bangs Organizations: Black Rock City, Rock City, wasn't, Black, Tahoe, Rock City Airport, Burner, ATC, Oakland, SF, Man, Pilatus, Cessna, Maxar Technologies, REUTERS Locations: Black Rock, Nevada, San Francisco, playa, San Francisco and New York, New York, Southern California, Reno, Rock
Burning Man is a desert-based arts festival that's become the playground of business elites. Morning Brew Insider recommends waking up with, a daily newsletter. Loading Something is loading. AdvertisementAdvertisementSome of the most influential — and richest — people in business are likely among the tens of thousands of people descending upon Black Rock City, Nevada, at this very moment to attend Burning Man. Every year, big-name tech bros and well-heeled execs join the festival — trading their hoodies for light-up bodysuits and Allbirds for sky-high boots.
Persons: that's, It's, execs Organizations: Morning Locations: Rock City , Nevada
The US government has spent some $28 trillion since 2020, causing its debt to surge to a record of almost $33 trillion. The spending binge has created a "mind-blowing hole" in the nation's public finances, according to Larry McDonald. Earlier this year, experts like Ray Dalio and Nouriel Roubini have also warned of the risk of a debt crisis in the US. Fiscal spending has skyrocketed since the pandemic and shows little sign of slowing — and this has created a "mind-blowing hole" in the nation's finances, according to markets guru Larry McDonald. "Another way to improve debt to GDP ratios is through hidden debt reduction i.e.
Persons: Larry McDonald, Ray Dalio, Nouriel, that's, It's, McDonald isn't, Nouriel Roubini, , McDonald Organizations: Service, Fitch, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon
Ray Dalio heralded India's economic potential following its moon landing on Wednesday. The Chandrayaan-3 landing was "one of many straws in the wind showing its ascendance," he said. "India's successful lunar mission ... is another one of many straws in the wind showing its ascendance," Dalio said in a post on X. The landing meant India became the first country to reach what is thought to be the most water-rich region on the moon – beating Russia, China, and the US. Dalio has hailed India as the next big global investing opportunity previously amid worsening relations between Washington and Beijing.
Persons: Ray Dalio, Dalio, Deng Xiaoping, Narendra Modi, Elon Musk, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Bridgewater Associates, Indian, Elon Locations: Bridgewater, India, Wall, Silicon, China, Russia, Washington, Beijing
Delinquencies on auto loans are rising again – and this could spell trouble for American consumers. Defaults on car loans have risen above pre-pandemic levels to over 2%, per the FDIC. "The trends in consumer loan performance could deteriorate in 2023 if the labor market or economic conditions soften," the report warned. "The concerning asset quality trends in auto loans may worsen if auto prices normalize." US consumer credit-card debt topped $1 trillion last quarter for the first time ever, according to Fed data.
Persons: , Ray Dalio Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Federal Deposit Insurance Locations: Wall, Silicon, delinquencies
Dalio says China is overdue in reducing its debt
  + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsAug 17 (Reuters) - Legendary investor Ray Dalio, a big enthusiast and investor in China, said on Thursday the world's second largest economy is overdue in conducting a "big debt restructuring." Dalio said deleveraging is never an easy task, but in the case of China it can be more manageable because most of its debt is in domestic currency and is held by its citizens. Very popular among Chinese investors, Dalio is a self-proclaimed Sinophile with long connections with China. Last year, Bridgewater doubled its fund assets in China to more than 20 billion yuan ($2.74 billion), cementing its position as the biggest foreign hedge fund in the country. The hedge fund launched its first onshore China fund in 2018 and, since then, two other funds have been established.
Persons: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater's, Brendan McDermid, Zhu Rongji, Dalio, deleveraging, Carolina Mandl, Sandra Maler Organizations: REUTERS, Chinese, Bridgewater Associates, Bridgewater, Carolina, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, . Connecticut, New York
A continued rally in stocks forced many hedge funds to unwind their bets against equities last month. US BOND MARKET LIQUIDITYBridgewater actively bets on the direction of various types of securities — including stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies — by predicting macroeconomic trends. He said that liquidity in the U.S. government bond market was getting worse, as the Treasury increases bond issuance. Bridgewater's Pure Alpha 12% volatility fund gained 2.5% in the year through Aug. 11, a third source familiar with the matter said, while the Defensive Alpha fund, less dependent on equities, rose 2.1%. Since it was launched in 1991, Pure Alpha 12% has generated 7.7% net total returns annually, according to the same source.
Persons: Ray Dalio, Greg Jensen, Bridgewater's, Nell Mackenzie, Ira Iosebashvili, Michelle Price, Emelia Organizations: U.S ., Singapore, Bridgewater Associates, Reuters, Nasdaq, Treasury, Alpha, Hedge Fund Research, Thomson Locations: Bridgewater, U.S, London, Carolina, New York
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