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☆ A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns stocks look 'eerily similar' to how they did before their 25% drop in 2022 — and says the US economy is still heading for a downturn
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

He is the founder of Rosenberg Research and the former chief economist at Merrill Lynch — and he called the 2008 recession. Rosenberg ResearchRosenberg's model takes into account stock valuations, investor sentiment, market technicals, investor positioning, and macro fundamentals. Here's The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which bundles together manufacturing data, bond and stock market performance, housing market activity, and consumer sentiment data. The economy doesn't jump from a tight labor market to layoffs," Rosenberg said in a note on Friday. Labor market and inflation data in the months ahead will tell the story for the US economy.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch —, Rosenberg, It's, —, Louis, GMO's Jeremy Grantham, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Business, Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St, CNN, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Rosenberg, Societe Generale's, Federal, Labor, CPI

☆ Just 4% of CEOs are prioritizing bringing workers back into the office full time
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-10 | by ( Ramishah Maruf | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

CEOs are letting up on the battle to get employees to return to the office full-time, five days a week, according to a CEO survey from The Conference Board. Just 4% of US CEOs and 4% of CEOs worldwide say they will prioritize bringing workers back to the office full time, the survey found. Toward the latter half of 2023, major companies announced they were getting stricter on office work — but notably didn’t announce a full return. An EY US survey of C-suite corporate leaders found that full-time remote work plummeted from 34% in 2022 to just 1% in 2023. The study also noted that hybrid work is “firmly established.”CEOs will have to approach hybrid work at an industry-by-industry level, Scott said.

Persons: isn’t, ” Diana Scott, it’s, Scott, ”, It’s, Andy Jassy, –, Jeanne Sahadi, Jordan Valinsky Organizations: New, New York CNN, Conference Board, UPS, CNN, Amazon, Meta, Labor Locations: New York, United States, Latin America, Japan, Europe

Here are 6 signals investment bankers are watching as they pray for an M&A rebound in 2024. By contrast, activity from private equity firms "was off almost 40%," he said. In 2021, private equity firms transacted $1.5 trillion across 2,869 deals, according to Dealogic. Last year, private equity M&A made up 40% of total activity, according to Goldman Sachs. AI companies, many of which are only now being formed, need to mature, and the winners and losers need to come into focus, bankers said.

Persons: Wall, LSEG, Goldman Sachs, Vito Sperduto, Sperduto, we've, Stephan Feldgoise, Hess, Anthony J, Carfang, Cash, Goldman, Goldman's Feldgoise, Feldgoise, Mark Sorrell, I'm, Harold M, Lambert, Jerome Powell, Greg McBride, McBride, Jonathan Gray, dealmaking, Gray, Rob Chisholm, Chisholm Organizations: Fed, London Stock Exchange, Business, RBC Capital Markets, Conference Board, Conference, Federal, Goldman, Federal Reserve, Private, Bankers, DOJ, FTC, Federal Reserve Board, Bankrate, of Labor Statistics, Cisco, LSEG, Qatalyst Partners, Citi, & $ Locations: LSEG, Ukraine

☆ Inflation has created a dark cloud over how everyday Americans view the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-25 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

There's rising hope that monetary policymakers have successfully cooled inflation without tipping the economy into a recession. Yet closely watched survey data from the University of Michigan shows consumer sentiment, while improving, is a far cry from pre-pandemic levels. Inflation vs. the job marketContinued strength in the labor market is something economists expected to sweeten everyday Americans' views of the economy. While the Michigan index compiles questions focused on financial conditions and purchasing power, the Conference Board's more closely gauges one's feelings about the job market. A hot job market can be a double-edged sword for sentiment, Michigan's Hsu noted.

Persons: Scott Olson, Kyle Connolly, Connolly, she's, Joanne Hsu, we're, Hsu, That's, Camelia, Kuhnen, Michigan's Hsu, UNC's Kuhnen, Karen Dynan, Marissa Lyda, Lyda, She's, there's, There's, Harvard's, Dynan, Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque Organizations: Toyota, Facebook, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Department, Conference, University of North, U.S . Treasury Department, Walmart, Federal, Committee Locations: Chicago , Illinois, Florida's panhandle, Michigan, University of North Carolina, Harvard, Phoenix, Portland, Kroger, Washington , U.S

☆ Financial Gift Ideas for Any Age
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Nick Fortuna | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Seeding a ‘529’ college-savings plan for young children or a Roth IRA for teenagers can give your loved ones a leg up. Illustration: Alex NabaumU.S. consumers entered this holiday season planning to spend an average of $654 on gifts, with the likeliest purchases going to gift cards, vacation and travel, and toys and games, according to the Conference Board Holiday Spending Survey. Instead of giving these traditional gifts, wealth advisers say a financial-related gesture or present might be the best gift of all—the one that keeps on giving. Even small financial gifts can help to position young people for success or help seniors to enjoy their retirement, financial advisers say.

Persons: Roth, Alex Nabaum Organizations: Conference

☆ We see a 'short & shallow' recession in the first half of 2024: The Conference Board's Dana Peterson
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe see a 'short & shallow' recession in the first half of 2024: The Conference Board's Dana PetersonDana Peterson, The Conference Board chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, health of the consumer, revised Q3 GDP data, and more.

Persons: Dana Peterson Dana Peterson Organizations: The Conference Board

TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares mostly fell Wednesday although a strong report on U.S. consumer confidence and hopes the Federal Reserve is finished with its aggressive interest rate hikes sent shares higher on Wall Street. Food delivery company Meituan's Hong Kong-traded shares dropped 11% after it forecast its revenue will fall in the current quarter. The loosening grip from inflation and a resilient economy have raised hopes that the Fed might finally be finished with raising its benchmark interest rate. Hopes that the Fed will keep its benchmark interest rate steady were reaffirmed Tuesday by Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors. The Fed will meet again in December to update its interest rate policy.

Persons: Australia's, Hang Seng, Matthew Weller, Forex.com, Brent, Tesla, Christopher Waller, “, ” Waller, Damian J, Troise, Alex Veiga Organizations: TOKYO, Reserve, Nikkei, China Evergrande, Benchmark, New York Mercantile Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Microsoft, GE Healthcare Technologies, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed’s, Governors, American Enterprise Institute, U.S ., AP Business Locations: Hong, Shanghai, Hong Kong, China, OPEC, Washington

The dollar index , which measures its value against six major currencies, fell as far as 102.89, the lowest since Aug. 31. The index is on track for a loss of more than 3% in November, its worst performance since November 2022. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index increased to 102.0 this month from a downwardly revised 99.1 in October. In other currencies, the euro rose to a 3-1/2-month peak of $1.0985 . The dollar fell 0.2% to 148.33 yen , with the Japanese currency continuing its recovery from the brink of 152 per dollar earlier in the month.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Sterling, Karl Schamotta, underscoring, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Alun John, Brigid Riley, Ed Osmond, Mark Potter, Kevin Liffey Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Federal Reserve, Board, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Traders, Australian, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Thomson Locations: Swiss, U.S, Toronto, OPEC, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, New York, London, Tokyo

☆ US consumer confidence rises in November
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

A woman carries shopping bags during the holiday season in New York City, U.S., December 21, 2022. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence rose in November after three straight monthly declines, though households continued to anticipate a recession over the next year, a survey showed on Tuesday. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index increased to 102.0 this month from a downwardly revised 99.1 in October. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index dipping to 101.0 from the previously reported 102.6. Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Eduardo Munoz, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Board, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

After declining for three straight months, American consumer confidence ticked up in November as the all-important holiday shopping season kicks into high gear. The Conference Board, a business research group, said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose to 102 this month from 99.1 in October. However, it was the third straight reading below 80 for future expectations, which historically signals a recession within a year. Consumer spending accounts for around 70% of U.S. economic activity, so economists pay close attention to consumer behavior as they take measure of the broader economy. Though they continue to spend, inflation, geopolitical conflicts and higher interest rates remain at the forefront of American consumers’ minds.

Organizations: Conference Board

☆ Consumers are feeling the uncertainty of the economy, says The Conference Board's Steve Odland
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConsumers are feeling the uncertainty of the economy, says The Conference Board's Steve OdlandSteve Odland, president and CEO of The Conference Board, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss the interest rate outlook, consumer confidence, and more.

Persons: Steve Odland Steve Odland, Steve Liesman Organizations: Conference Board

"Inflation rates are moving along pretty much like I thought," Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a hawkish and influential voice at the central bank, told the American Enterprise Institute think tank on Tuesday. If the decline in inflation continues "for several more months ... three months, four months, five months ... we could start lowering the policy rate just because inflation is lower," he said. Additional Fed rate increases remain a possibility if upcoming data includes an unexpected resurgence of price pressures, he said. But even Bowman, who like Waller is among the Fed's most hawkish officials, stopped short of outright calling for a further increase in the policy rate. New inflation data will be released on Thursday, and policymakers will also have a fresh monthly jobs report and other data in hand before they gather next month.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Bond, Waller's, Jerome Powell, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Waller, Austan Goolsbee, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, American Enterprise Institute, Fed, Spelman College, Utah Bankers Association, Chicago Fed, Conference Board, Thomson Locations: U.S, Atlanta, Salt Lake City

☆ Futures subdued ahead of comments from Fed officials; Zscaler falls
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 20, 2023. The rebound in equities in November has brought the S&P 500 (.SPX) within a very close range of its 2023 intra-day high. Multiple policy voting members are scheduled to speak during the day, including Board Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman. ET, Dow e-minis were up 14 points, or 0.04%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 1.75 points, or 0.04%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 16.25 points, or 0.1%. Boeing added 1.7% after RBC Capital Markets upgraded the aerospace company to "outperform" from "sector perform" and set a street-high price target.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Governors Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Susannah Streeter, Hargreaves Lansdown, Jefferies, Shristi Achar, Shinjini Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Governors, Dow e, Hargreaves, Conference, Boeing, RBC Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, United States, Bengaluru

Tokyo and Hong Kong fell while Shanghai, Seoul and Sydney gained. U.S. futures and oil prices edged higher. Meanwhile, the broader economy has remained strong enough in the face of rising interest rates and inflation to avoid a recession. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong slipped 0.8% to 17,381.14. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which influences interest rates on mortgages and other loans, fell to 4.38% from 4.47% late Friday.

Persons: ” Robert Carnell, Min Joo Kang, Sensetime, Grizzly, Kospi, Australia's Organizations: Sydney, Conference, FactSet, Federal, Federal Reserve, U.S, ING Economics, Nikkei, Grizzly Research, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, New York Mercantile Exchange, Brent, Investors, U.S . Locations: BANGKOK, Asia, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Seoul, China

Consumers grew somewhat more optimistic about the future of the economy in November as expectations about inflation improved, but their sense of the current state of affairs worsened a bit. Still, two-thirds of consumers surveyed still expect a recession to be “somewhat” or “very likely” within the next 12 months. However, that is well above current inflation of 3.2% and forecasts from the Federal Reserve and mainstream economists. In the peak hour from 10 p.m. to 11 p.m. EST, consumers spent $15.7 million a minute, according to online analytics firm Adobe. One thing that might make some consumers happy is that home prices continued to increase in September.

Persons: ”, Dana Peterson, ” Peterson, Jeffrey Roach, Craig J, Lazzara, Lisa Sturtevant Organizations: Conference, Federal Reserve, LPL, “, Adobe, MLS Locations: Detroit, San Diego

Now "it's like 'plus-10' and then China," he added, with the latter down to providing half of Industry West's products and being trimmed more. China recorded its first-ever quarterly deficit in foreign direct investment in July-September, suggesting capital outflow pressure. But for the first time in the four decades since China opened up to foreign investments, executives are now also concerned about long-term growth prospects. Primavera Capital founder Fred Hu cites mounting macroeconomic uncertainty, a "murky capital market outlook," and lingering concerns over past regulatory crackdowns on high-growth industries such as technology and education. Despite the challenges, foreign investment flows are not unidirectional.

Persons: Jordan England, Nicholas Lardy, England, I'm, Li Qiang's, Li, Michael Hart, Noah Fraser, Fred Hu, Hu, Joe Cash, Ellen Zhang, Kane Wu, Eduardo Baptista, Don Durfee, Kripa Jayaram, Marius Zaharia, Jamie Freed Organizations: China, Reuters, Peterson Institute for International Economics, LONG, Conference Board, China International, Canada China Business Council, Reuters Graphics, Primavera Capital, Tech, Thomson Locations: China, BEIJING, HONG KONG, Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, Mexico, England, Florida, Washington, Beijing, consultancies, U.S, Asia, Australia, Europe, Hong Kong

A lot of the spending was driven by deals and buy-now, pay-later programs. The Fed’s “beige book” report on the economy is out on Wednesday, and that will show how inflation is affecting businesses and consumers. But consumers continue to express concern over inflation that has left overall prices higher by about 18% since 2021. “With inflation falling as the Fed keeps rates unchanged, real interest rates continue to tighten,” said Richard de Chazal, macro analyst at William Blair. But consumers remain concerned about inflation and just how much will be seen on Tuesday when the Conference Board releases its consumer confidence index for November.

Persons: SpendingPulse, ”, Vivek Pandya, Signifyd, Richard de Chazal, William Blair, “ Organizations: Adobe Analytics, Adobe Digital, Consumers, Retailers, Federal Reserve, Fed, Wells, ”, Conference Board

☆ Why American consumers may finally slow their spending, in charts
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-26 | by ( Christopher Hickey | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Some experts think the combination of high housing costs, rising credit card debt and shrinking savings could mean the end of post-Covid splurges, maybe even as soon as this year’s holiday shopping season. Here are the pressures consumers are facing that could cause a spending slowdown. Keeping up with high prices not only has led to more credit card debt, but also more consumers are falling behind on the payments. Since the first quarter of 2022, the rate of newly serious delinquent credit card debt has risen roughly 90%. And that would mean Americans may be forced to finally pull back on their post-Covid spending spree.

Persons: “, ”, Erik Lundh, Freddie Mac, ” Lundh, Lundh, they’ve Organizations: Conference, Intercontinental Exchange, ICE, New York Federal Reserve, Social Security Administration, San Francisco Federal Reserve, SF Fed, New York Fed, Covid Locations: people’s

☆ 'The consumer slowdown has begun': America's deteriorating shopping spree in 4 charts
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

According to Deloitte, the consumer spending slowdown is already starting. "The stellar US economic growth recorded in the third quarter was largely due to the strong growth in consumer spending. However, it is widely expected that consumer spending will decelerate in the holiday season, thereby putting financial stress on retailers and their suppliers." Spending intentions have plummetedThe negative trend in retail sales could continue, as spending intentions among Americans have plummeted over the past few months, according to Deloitte's spending intentions index. Americans' spending intentions are the lowest they've been all year.

Persons: —, Ira Kalish, Kalish Organizations: Deloitte, Service, Wall, Conference, Survey

"A fiscal commission is direly needed," Republican Senator Mike Braun, a Budget Committee member, said in an interview. It circulated ideas from a dozen experts on how a commission could offer up solutions for taming deficits and debt. Other recommendations included subjecting high-income earners to more Social Security taxes and gradually raising the age for full retirement benefits to 69 from the current 67. A commission, said independent Senator Bernie Sanders, who caucuses with Democrats, would simply be "a backdoor way to get into cutting Social Security." Sanders embraced lifting the cap on taxable income to extend the life of the Social Security trust fund.

Persons: Kevin Wurm, Mike Braun, Braun, Moody's, Fitch, Michael Peterson, Peter G, Mark Zandi, Dana Peterson, Lori Esposito Murray, Joe Manchin, Mitt Romney, Bernie Sanders, Sanders, Richard Cowan, Moira Warburton, Grant McCool Organizations: U.S, Capitol, REUTERS, Rights, Congress, Treasury Department, Republican, AAA, Peterson Foundation, Conference Board, Democratic, Representatives, Social Security, Social, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S

☆ Dollar nurses losses as US rates seen peaking
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The index , which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, fell 1.9% last week alongside a big rally in U.S. The yuan also hit a three-month high on the dollar on Monday as the central bank guided it higher. "The dollar continues to struggle, with the dollar index breaking below 104 on Friday and (now) below 103.5 ... as markets decide that the Fed is done," analysts at ANZ said in a note. The Australian dollar was marginally firmer at $0.6561, just below Monday's three-month high of $0.6564. The New Zealand dollar was steady at $0.6040.

Persons: Pierre Wunsch, Kit Juckes, Christine Lagarde, Tom Westbrook, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: European Central Bank, New Zealand, ANZ, Conference, Federal Reserve, Futures, Generale, U.S, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, U.S, Japan, Tokyo

☆ Dollar falls to 2-1/2 month low on Fed expectations, yen strengthens
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Markets have priced out any additional Fed rate hikes, as recent data has shown a slowing of the economy and inflation pressures - but not enough to increase fears a sharp recession is looming. "The market is convinced, both credit, equities and currencies that the Fed has finished raising rates, but the Fed is not willing to say so. "So you're getting a gradual weakening in the dollar, simply because the Fed is doing its best to prop up rates, not necessarily the dollar, but to prop up rates." Against the yen the dollar was last traded at 148.36 yen , down 0.84%.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, CME's, we've, Joseph Trevisani, Thomas Barkin, Moody's, Sterling, Chuck Mikolajczak, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Conference, Fed, Richmond Federal, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Dollar falls to two-month low on Fed view, yen strengthens
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Markets have priced out any additional Fed rate hikes, as recent data has showed a slowing of the economy and inflation pressures - but not enough to increase fears a sharp recession is looming. "The market is convinced, both credit, equities and currencies that the Fed has finished raising rates, but the Fed is not willing to say so. "So you're getting a gradual weakening in the dollar, simply because the Fed is doing its best to prop up rates, not necessarily the dollar, but to prop up rates." Against the yen the dollar was traded at 148.40 yen , down 0.81%.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, CME's, we've, Joseph Trevisani, Thomas Barkin, Moody's, Sterling, Chuck Mikolajczak, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Conference, Fed, Reserve Bank of Richmond, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S

And gas prices are down around $3 a gallon ahead of this critical week for holiday driving, while mortgage rates have backed off their recent highs. There is little expectation the Fed will raise interest rates in December at its next meeting after being on pause since July and two benign inflation reports last week. Such a benign inflation outcome would increase our conviction that the coming recession will be mild.”It will be a shortened week for economic data and market activity. The week starts with a read on the economy from the Conference Board’s leading economic index. Still, the overriding narrative at the moment is one that sees a slowdown bringing further relief on the inflation front and continued, if weaker, growth ahead for the economy.

Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: Research, US Bond Strategy, Conference, University of

☆ 'We are at the very onset of a recession right now': A top Wall Street strategist shares a 'huge red flag' signaling the economy is heading into a downturn — sending stocks tumbling as much as 20%
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Right now, it's up 7.7% year-over-year and continues to rise, prompting Kantrowitz to say it's a "huge red flag for me." Still, while the unemployment rate is up to 3.9% from its 3.4% low earlier this year, unemployment claims have not spiked meaningfully. Piper Sandler"Regarding employment – I see enough data that has me convinced that we are at the very onset of a recession right now," Kantrowitz said. If the unemployment rate continues to tick upward, even slightly, it will likely trigger the Sahm rule mentioned above. Plenty of market onlookers see a recession in 2024, including DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffery Gundlach and Citadel founder Ken Griffin.

Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Sahm's, It's, Claudia Sahm, Jon Wolfenbarger, Wolfenbarger, Jeffery Gundlach, Ken Griffin, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Brian Moynihan Organizations: Federal, Business, Institute for Supply Management's, Investor, Federal Reserve, National Federal, Independent, Treasury, Conference, DoubleLine Capital, Citadel, Bank of America

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