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☆ German inflation bucks downward trend in June with higher-than-expected rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Maria Martinez | Thomson Reuters | Maria Martinez Is A Reuters Correspondent In Berlin Covering German Economics | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

French and euro zone inflation data is due on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters expect euro zone inflation to fall to 5.6% in June from 6.1% in May. "The June figures in Germany only interrupt the downward trend in the inflation rate and do not mark its end," said Ralph Solveen, senior economist at Commerzbank. Non-harmonized consumer prices rose 6.4% in June year-on-year, following a 6.1% rise in the previous month. The year-on-year rebound in German inflation midway through the second quarter is almost exclusively due to base effects from last year's temporarily-reduced rail fare, said Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Persons: Analysts, Ralph Solveen, year's, Claus Vistesen, Carsten Brzeski, Commerzbank's Solveen, Brzeski, Maria Martinez, Friederike Heine, Miranda Murray, Angus MacSwan, Conor Humphries Organizations: Union, Reuters, Commerzbank, Pantheon, European Central Bank, ING, Economists, ECB, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, Spain, Italy, Germany

☆ Drop in German business morale points to longer recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Summary Business climate index fell to 88.5 in June from 91.5 in MayBoth business expectations and current business conditions fellProbability of longer recession risesBERLIN, June 26 (Reuters) - German business morale worsened for the second consecutive month in June, a survey showed on Monday, indicating that Europe's largest economy faces an uphill battle to shake off recession. "Sentiment in the German economy has clouded over noticeably," Ifo's president Clemens Fuest said. Indeed, expectations were much more pessimistic, with the related Ifo index falling to 83.6 from May's 88.3. "The probability has increased that gross domestic product will also shrink in the second quarter," he said. "We feel confirmed in our forecast that the German economy will shrink again in the second half of the year," Commerzbank's chief economist Joerg Kraemer said.

Persons: Clemens Fuest, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Klaus Wohlrabe, Urban, Franziska Palmas, Joerg Kraemer, Maria Martinez, Rene Wagner, Friederike Heine, Matthias Williams, Hugh Lawson Organizations: ING, Companies, Reuters, Oxford Economics, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, U.S, Germany, German, Europe

☆ Commerzbank to book further provision for mBank after court ruling
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

FRANKFURT, June 23 (Reuters) - Germany's Commerzbank (CBKG.DE) said on Friday that it would book another provision of 342 million euros ($372.27 million) following a court ruling on how banks treat Swiss franc loans in Poland. The new figure means that Commerzbank, which has extensive operations in Poland through its mBank (MBK.WA), has provisioned or made payouts of more than 2 billion euros to deal with the issue. The bank said the figure would impact its second-quarter earnings but that it still expects a 2023 net profit "well above that of 2022". Polish courts have been deciding how the loans can be treated, including what banks can charge in interest for the loans, creating uncertainty for banks and their bottom lines. ($1 = 0.9187 euros)Reporting by Tom Sims; editing by David EvansOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Tom Sims, David Evans Organizations: Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Poland

☆ Analysis: Greek bonds snapping at heels of southern Europe's best in class
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The country has received three international bailouts from the euro zone and the IMF worth 280 billion euros ($308 billion) since 2010. "The Greek (bond) market is not so liquid and tends to be more volatile, but we have a lot of good news. The Greek economy is still heavily exposed to volatile sectors like tourism or shipping, but it is less sensitive to manufacturing headwinds. The premium, or spread, of Greek government bond yields over those of Spain recently fell to its lowest since 2008 at around 27 basis points . Across southern Europe, only Portugal and Spain trade at a smaller premium to Germany - the euro zone benchmark - than Greece.

Persons: Athanasios, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Goldman Sachs, Filippo Taddei, Piet Haines Christiansen, Giorgia Meloni, Mario Draghi's, Christoph Rieger, Stefano Rebaudo, Sara Rossi, Amanda Cooper, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Bank of America, Democracy, Analysts, European Recovery Fund, Danske Bank, Italy's, ECB, Italian Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Greece, Spain, Europe, Portugal, Germany, European, Italy, Italian

☆ TenneT lines up 8 bln-euro credit ahead of German operations sale
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

AMSTERDAM, June 14 (Reuters) - Electric grid operator TenneT Holding (IPO-TTH.AS) said on Wednesday it has signed an 8 billion euro ($8.63 billion) credit facility to support its spending plans as it awaits a deal to sell its German operations to the German state. Governments of the two countries have said they hope to agree a deal on the sale of TenneT Germany this summer and close a deal by the end of 2023, though talks have been going slowly. TenneT, which had a debt-heavy balance sheet of 38.5 billion euros at the end of 2022, in March estimated equity needs at its German arm of 15 billion euros and of 10 billion euros at its Dutch arm. TenneT said the 2.5-year facility is provided by BNP Paribas, ABN AMRO, BNG, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, ING, Rabobank, Santander, SMBC Nikko, and UniCredit. ($1 = 0.9271 euros)($1 = 0.9268 euros)Reporting by Toby Sterling, Editing by Louise Heavens and Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: TenneT, Toby Sterling, Louise Heavens, Sharon Singleton Organizations: TenneT, BNP, ABN AMRO, Deutsche Bank, ING, Rabobank, Santander, Thomson Locations: AMSTERDAM, Dutch, Germany, Netherlands, BNG, Nikko

☆ TRYing times: The slide and fall of the Turkish lira
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The central bank is however widely expected to get a new head in the coming days. Turkey's economy is no stranger to boom-and-bust cycles, oscillating between double-digit growth and contraction rates in recent years. 3/INFLATION PALPITATIONSA tumbling lira will fan fears over a fresh spike in inflation in the country which only last year saw it top 80%. "It's just so inevitable," Abrdn's head of local currency emerging market debt, Kieren Curtis, said referring to the lira's slump this week. He did add however that the compensation would be paid to depositors in lira rather than dollars or euros and that bill would be split between the Treasury and Central Bank.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Ulrich Leuchtmann, Hasnain Malik, Erdogan, Tellimer's Malik, Kieren Curtis, Frank Gill, Tayyip Erdogan's, Karin Strohecker, David Evans Organizations: Wall, JPMorgan, FX, Reuters Graphics Reuters, International Monetary Fund, P Global, Treasury, Central Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ankara, Turkey, Commerzbank, Frankfurt, Tellimer

BERLIN, June 7 (Reuters) - German industrial output rose less than expected in April, darkening the outlook for the euro zone's largest economy following weak new orders data earlier this week. The statistics office revised up the industrial production figure for March to a 2.1% decrease from a provisional figure of a 3.4% fall. Even with this revision, German industrial production is 1.6% below its level a year earlier. Data on Tuesday showed industrial orders fell by 0.4% in the month of April. "Without any significant pick up in activity, the German economy's recession could continue in the second quarter," ING's global head of macro Carsten Brzeski said.

Persons: Andrew Kenningham, Kenningham, April's, Commerzbank's, Ralph Solveen, Solveen, Carsten Brzeski, Anastasiia Kozlova, Maria Martinez, Miranda Murray, Christina Fincher Organizations: Companies, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, Europe, China, United States

"Germans are cautious by nature," said Stephan Fetsch, Germany's head of consumer goods at KPMG. Economists polled by Reuters are split on its second quarter fortunes: views ranged from a 0.3% GDP fall to a 0.5% gain, with a median forecast of 0.2% growth. However, German consumer sentiment remains below its pandemic low in the spring of 2020 and the consumer barometer from the German Retail Association (HDE) shows a similar picture. German consumers were hit particularly hard by high energy prices, being more dependent on Russia gas. "The German consumer has reasons to be scared and the result of all the economic uncertainty is usually an increase in precautionary savings," said Michael Burda, economics professor at Humboldt University Berlin.

Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Germany's, Stephan Fetsch, Holger Schmieding, Carsten Brzeski, KPMG's Fetsch, Joerg Kraemer, Michael Burda, Brzeski, Maria Martinez, Prerana Bhat, Indradip Ghosh, Mark John, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, KPMG, Reuters, German Retail Association, Berenberg, ING, European Central Bank, Humboldt University Berlin, Thomson Locations: Cologne, Germany, BERLIN, Europe, France, Italy, Russia, Berlin, China, Bengaluru

SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE, June 2 (Reuters) - China's yuan has skidded to six-month lows against the dollar and analysts say it could weaken further as investors fret over a bumpy pandemic recovery in the world's second-largest economy. "The yuan suffers as China's reopening story is less appealing than before, and there is no sign of further stimulus," said Gary Ng, senior economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis. "A weaker currency at the current juncture can help export performance, especially as global trade is shrinking this year." "A weaker yuan helps exporters when they convert the dollar receivables to yuan," said Barclays' FX strategist Lemon Zhang. A weaker yuan might also temper deflationary pressures being seen in parts of the economy due to weak domestic demand.

Persons: Gary Ng, Alvin Tan, Tan, Tommy Wu, Lemon Zhang, Serena Zhou, Winni Zhou, Brenda Goh, Tom Westbrook, Kim Coghill Organizations: Asia Pacific, Reuters, People's Bank of China, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, Barclays, FX, Mizuho Securities, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, United States, Natixis, Asia, China, Shanghai, Singapore

☆ Euro zone inflation tumbles, fuelling ECB rates debate
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Some economists argued that the bigger than forecast drop in underlying inflation suggests that not much work is left to be done. "Underlying inflation has probably passed its peak," Commerzbank economist Christoph Weil said. "This supports our expectation that the ECB will raise key interest rates by 25 basis points for the last time in June." Services inflation slowed to 5.0% from 5.2% while price growth for industrial goods eased to 5.8% from 6.2%, still excessive but both moving in the right direction. Euro zone wage growth is hovering in the 5% to 6% range, twice the rate that would be consistent with the ECB's inflation target.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Christoph Weil, Nordea, Balazs Koranyi, John Stonestreet Organizations: FRANKFURT, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: Germany, Netherlands, Ireland

☆ Why is the US dollar so strong again?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Harry Robertson | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, May 18 (Reuters) - If investors agree on one thing this year, it's that the dollar is going to fall. The go-to explanation of currency strategists right now is the debt-ceiling debacle is boosting the dollar. Traders currently expect the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates sharply later this year as a recession takes hold, yet Tan is skeptical. If the dollar rises slightly, some traders may be forced to close out their short positions by buying the dollar, which then boosts its value. But a simple technical indicator is that it is very atypical for you to have a straight-line decline in the dollar."

The bank's shares traded 7.3% lower at 0750 GMT, making it the worst performer on the DAX blue chip index. Finance chief Bettina Orlopp told analysts net interest income had probably peaked in the quarter and that further provisions for its mBank unit in Poland were possible. The bank said it sees "upside potential" in net interest income this year, and raised its forecast to 7 billion euros ($7.7 billion) from 6.5 billion. One of Germany's best-known banks, Commerzbank is in the middle of a major overhaul, cutting thousands of workers and hundreds of branches to save costs and lift profits. JPMorgan called the results strong but said the bank's increased guidance for net interest income was below market expectations and "would limit any upgrades" in analyst forecasts.

FRANKFURT, May 17 (Reuters) - Germany's Commerzbank (CBKG.DE) said on Wednesday that net profit nearly doubled in the first quarter, a better-than-expected result helped by higher interest rates. The bank said it sees "upside potential" in net interest income this year, and raised its forecast to 7 billion euros ($7.7 billion) from a previous 6.5 billion euros. Net profit of 580 million euros in the first quarter compares with a profit of 298 million euros a year earlier. Analysts had on average expected profit of 481 million euros, according to a consensus forecast published by Commerzbank. Many banks have reported increases in revenue and profit for the first quarter on the back of higher interest rates.

☆ We expect Germany will be in a mild recession this year, says Commerzbank CFO
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe expect Germany will be in a mild recession this year, says Commerzbank CFOBettina Orlopp, Commerzbank CFO, discusses Germany's economic outlook and its commercial real estate sector, among other things.

BERLIN, May 8 (Reuters) - German industrial production fell more than expected in March, partly due to a weak performance by the automotive sector, spurring again recession fears in Europe's largest economy. Production decreased by 3.4% on the previous month following a slightly revised increase of 2.1% in February, the federal statistical office said on Monday. "After a buoyant performance by industrial production at the beginning of the year, there was an unexpectedly sharp decline in March," the economics ministry said. In the first quarter, production was 2.5% higher than in the last quarter of 2022, according to the statistics office. GDP was unchanged quarter on quarter in adjusted terms in the first quarter, following a 0.5% contraction in the fourth quarter of 2022.

☆ European Central Bank set to slow rate hikes as financial conditions tighten rapidly
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Annette Weisbach | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank is expected to lift its benchmark rate by a smaller step of 25 basis points Thursday, as core inflation declines and its own survey data points to much tighter financial conditions in the region. The ECB has kept interest at zero, and below, for years, and has launched bond-buying program like the APP (Asset Purchase Program) and PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program) in an effort to simulate lending. On the other hand, PEPP was a more flexible bond purchase program introduced during the coronavirus pandemic. "It's a positive sign that core inflation has fallen for the first time in a long time. In addition, the ECB's bank lending survey pointed to an exceptionally large drop in credit demand amid tighter lending criteria, adding to the case for a smaller rate hike.

Growth came mostly from exports, the result of a revival in global trade as China re-opened for business after the pandemic. But national data showed price growth remained stubbornly high, probably leaving the ECB with no choice but to keep raising interest rates. Friday's inflation data showed progress was slow. IMF CALLS FOR MORE RATE HIKESMoney markets currently price in another 70 basis points of ECB rate hikes by October, possibly followed by cuts as early as the start of next year. It also said European Union finance ministers should tighten fiscal policy in concerted action to bring down high inflation, which would probably depress consumption further.

"The German economy remained stuck in the mud at the start of 2023, only barely avoiding recession," Pantheon Macroeconomics' chief eurozone economist Claus Vistesen said. The German economy shrank by a revised 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with the previous three months, reviving fears of a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction. "A gradual recovery is underway, despite a persistently difficult environment," German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said in the presentation of the forecasts. "The recent renaissance in industrial production could very well carry the economy through the second quarter," ING's global head of macro Carsten Brzeski said. "However, we are afraid that looking into the second half of the year, the German economy will continue its flirtation with recession."

☆ Oil rises but post weekly loss as economic uncertainty weighs
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Erwin Seba | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) rose 50 cents to $77.87 per barrel. Survey data from the euro zone and Britain lifted oil prices on Friday. In India, refiners' crude oil processing stayed near record peaks in March, provisional government data showed, catering to solid seasonal demand in the world's third biggest oil consumer. Oilfield services giant SLB (SLB.N) beat Wall Street estimates for first-quarter profit, as elevated crude prices and tight supplies increased demand for its services. However, economic uncertainty and the prospect of rising interest rates continued to hang over oil markets.

☆ ECB market rate bets: still some unfinished business for the hawks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Having firmly scaled-back rate expectations amid last month's market turmoil, investors no longer expect borrowing costs to stay higher for longer and are cautious about pricing in a deposit rate above 4%. The November 2023 ECB euro short-term rate (ESTR) forward rose to 3.65% on Wednesday, implying expectations for a deposit rate of around 3.75%. Citi meanwhile argued that the June ESTR or money market contract was less appealing from a hedging standpoint while markets were pricing a peak of 3.75%. bundfuturevolBut Bund futures volumes declined after March 15 as markets once more revised their rate expectations upwards. This means that the smaller the gap between the current benchmark rate and the expected rate, the lower the volatility, and vice versa.

☆ European banks surge on strong Q1 results from U.S. peers
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

[1/3] The logo of Deutsche Bank is seen in Brussels, Belgium December 6, 2022. REUTERS/Yves HermanLONDON, April 14 (Reuters) - European banks surged on Friday, rising to a one-month high, gaining support from U.S. lenders, which reported better-than-expected results in the first quarter. The STOXX 600 index of European banks (.SX7P) gained as much as 3% to reach its highest since mid-March after JPMorgan (JPM.N), Citigroup (C.N) and Wells Fargo WFC.N beat estimates. Banks largely outperformed the broader market, with the STOXX 600 (.STOXX) index climbing 0.6% as risk assets gained support from expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve may soon finish raising interest rates. In London, Standard Chartered (STAN.L) shares rose 4.3% to three-week highs, Barclays (BARC.L) shares were up 3%, touching a five-week high, while HSBC (HSBA.L) shares up 3.1% to one month highs.

REUTERS/StaffApril 12 (Reuters) - World stocks and bond yields stalled on Wednesday as markets anticipated crucial U.S. inflation data which could give signals on how soon the Federal Reserve will end its aggressive rate hikes. Markets were in wait-and-see mode ahead of the data, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index inching up 0.3% by 0820 GMT, while Britain's FTSE (.FTSE) was up 0.6%. Government bond yields were also little moved with benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields unchanged on the day at 3.43%. "We do not assume that the discrepancy between Fed and market expectations will end today or in the near future," Reichelt said. With oil prices rising again and labour market cooling only gradually, risk remains tilted for core inflation to remain elevated for longer," they said.

"It cannot be that financial institutions are doing well because they treat their customers badly," Chan-Jae Yoo, a BaFin official, said in an interview. Deutsche Kreditwirtschaft, an umbrella organisation that lobbies for German finance, said German banks are "extremely stable and robust" and confidence remains "high" and "unaffected" by recent turmoil stemming from the collapse of lenders in the United States and Switzerland. "The mere fact that consumers are increasingly asking us and seeking our advice is proof enough that they do not fully trust financial institutions," he said. Protections and rights for customers of financial institutions have come under increased scrutiny from regulators and the German courts. "We want services to establish themselves in the marketplace that meet consumer needs, not feed the financial industry," he said.

☆ Stubborn inflation keeps ECB on course for more rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Francesco Canepa | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The pressure on the ECB to continue raising interest rates remains high," Commerzbank economist Christoph Weil said. Consumer prices in the euro zone rose by 6.9% in March after an 8.5% increase in February, implying the biggest drop since Eurostat started collecting data in 1991. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected headline inflation in the 20 countries that share the euro to come in at 7.1% and core inflation at 7.5%. Strengthening the case for more tightening, euro zone unemployment remained stubbornly low at 6.6%. This is a concern for policymakers who fear it could give workers greater bargaining power in salary negotiations and lead to higher wage increases that could perpetuate high inflation.

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