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A preferred solution is to accelerate the energy transition by adding more renewable generation, and crucially, more storage to smooth out the inherent variability of technologies such as wind and solar. At the 121 Mining Investment conference in Sydney on Wednesday the problems were put into focus by the group largely being neglected in the energy transition, the miners and project developers. None of this bodes well for increasing the speed of the energy transition. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterEditing by Christian SchmollingerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
LAUNCESTON, Australia, Sept 29 - If there is one thing the oil and coal industries can agree upon, it's that the solution to the current global energy crisis is more fossil fuels. The Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 has been the catalyst for players in the global energy industry to re-think priorities. For the oil, gas, and coal sectors what they see as the problem is perennial under-investment in new oil and gas fields and new mines. In other words, the solution to the current fossil fuel crisis is more fossil fuels, but this time just from more reliable countries and not Russia. But the point is the money is likely to flow at a faster rate into alternatives to fossil fuels.
Refiners, insurers, shippers and traders would be able to deal in Russian crude and products if they adhere to the price cap and its associated compliance measures. For argument's sake let's assume a Brent price of $80 by December when the ban comes into effect, and a price cap for Russian crude of $60. However, the United States and Europe may actually not mind cheating on the price cap, depending on how the money is split up. More tankers will be required to ship Russian crude given an increase in voyage times if the crude and products go to Asia rather than Europe. The oil industry would likely prefer that Europe and the United States don't place restrictions on Russian crude, but this currently isn't an option from a political perspective.
But despite the decline in oil imports, China has actually been building up inventories, as crude imports and domestic production has been exceeding the volume of refinery processing. But an estimate can be made by deducting the amount of crude processed from the total of crude available from imports and domestic output. Crude imports were 9.5 million bpd in August, based on official data, up 8.1% from July's 8.79 million bpd in July, but they were still down 9.4% from August 2021. Domestic oil output was 3.99 million bpd in August, down a touch from July's 4.03 million bpd. Refinery throughput was 12.64 million bpd in August, up slightly from July's 12.53 million bpd, which was the lowest daily rate since March 2020.
Representatives of coal miners in Indonesia and Australia, the world's two largest exporters of thermal coal, were ebullient at the Coaltrans event, but also cautious that the current windfall is unlikely to last beyond 2023 or 2024. In theory both of these solutions do offer some hope for coal miners, but then the main problem comes in. For higher energy Australian thermal coal the cost of the offsets is even less, given its current high price, coming in at just over 2%. Also, as coal miners, and other polluters, compete for offsets, the price will invariably rise, thereby adding to the cost. For exporting coal miners, there is probably a narrow path to remaining in business for the long term.
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