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The spot price for benchmark 62% iron ore for delivery to north China , as assessed by commodity price reporting agency Argus, dropped to $110.25 a tonne on April 21, the lowest since Dec. 20. China produces just over half of the world's steel and buys more than 70% of seaborne iron ore, with the main exporters being Australia, Brazil and South Africa. It's also the case the outlook for iron ore demand in China is not particularly clear cut, with some positive macro drivers but also areas of concern. This implies that steel mills may be looking to increase iron ore imports, especially if they plan to keep production at relatively high levels. Overall, the outlook for China's iron ore and steel demand is less assured than it was at the start of the year, when optimism over the economic re-opening abounded.

Crude imports in March were 12.37 million bpd, while domestic output was 4.30 million bpd, giving a combined total of 16.67 million bpd. Subtracting the refinery throughput leaves 1.56 million bpd that likely flowed into either commercial or strategic inventories. The question for the oil market is what does it all mean for the outlook for crude oil demand in China? There is nothing inherently wrong with OPEC+'s forecast for global oil demand growth of 2.32 million bpd in 2023, or the 2 million bpd forecast from the International Energy Agency. By building stockpiles now, they can reduce crude imports later in the year if they deem prices to be too high.

LAUNCESTON, Australia, April 18 (Reuters) - There is an increasing disconnect between the forecasts for strong global oil demand growth this year, led by Asia, and the reality of weakening margins for refined fuels. The profit from turning a barrel of Dubai crude into refined products at a typical Singapore refinery dropped to $2.53 a barrel on Monday. The falling margins on refined fuels may result in refiners in Asia processing less, especially as crude costs continue to rise. Despite the current problems facing refiners, both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) are sticking to bullish forecasts for crude demand growth in 2023. OPEC is also maintaining a bullish view for 2023 oil demand growth, keeping its forecast for an increase of 2.32 million bpd in its latest monthly report.

China's coal imports leapt to a three-year high in March, with official data showing arrivals of 41.17 million tonnes, up 151% from the same month in 2022. China's coal imports from Australia were 2.73 million tonnes, with 2.13 million assessed as the thermal grade used in power plants, with 417,576 tonnes being coking coal used to make steel. Chinese utilities used to be major buyers of Australian thermal coal with an energy content of 5,500 kilocalories per kg (kcal/kg). This advantage is driving Chinese buying of Australian coal, with Kpler estimating that arrivals in April will reach 5.04 million tonnes, with thermal coal accounting for 4.72 million tonnes. The question for the seaborne coal market is whether China's renewed interest in Australian coal is a sustainable trend, or whether it is simply opportunistic buying that will wither if the price advantage slips.

For the first quarter, China's refined product exports were up 59.8% to 18.2 million tonnes, equivalent to about 1.62 million bpd. For the first quarter in 2022, refined fuel exports were 1.01 million bpd, meaning they have risen by 610,000 bpd in the same period this year. IMPACT OF FUEL EXPORTSThere are also several other questions for the market to ponder, such as do strong Chinese refined fuel exports, while increasing China's crude imports, actually result in lower demand elsewhere as China's products displace supplies from other exporters? It's likely that China's refined product exports will remain elevated in April as refiners use up their quotas and Beijing encourages exports as part of efforts to boost economic activity. Overall, the current picture in China is one of strong crude imports and even stronger refined product exports.

LAUNCESTON, Australia, April 12 (Reuters) - Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports in March. India was another LNG importer stung by the record high spot prices last year, but is returning to the market as prices retreat. Europe's March LNG imports were 11.49 million tonnes, up from February's 11.37 million, according to Kpler. The question for the market is whether the signs of stronger demand in Europe and among some buyers in Asia will be enough to spark a renewed rally in spot prices. And if spot prices do head higher, how quickly will that translate to lower demand from price-sensitive buyers in Asia such as India and Pakistan.

China produces more than half of the world's steel and buys about 70% of global seaborne iron ore, one of two key raw materials for steel, the other being coking coal. It's not just prices that are declining, there are signs that iron ore volumes and steel output are also weakening slightly. China's iron ore imports are estimated by Refinitiv at 94.17 million tonnes in March, which translates to a daily rate of 3.04 million tonnes. What the drop in prices, seaborne iron ore imports and steel output appear to be pointing to is a moderation in demand expectations in China. This suggests that iron ore and coking coal demand will remain solid, but may not rise much over 2023 as a whole.

LAUNCESTON, Australia, April 6 (Reuters) - Asia's imports of crude oil stayed at relatively robust levels in March, as strong inflows to the top-importing region's heavyweights China and India offset weaker demand among some others buyers. Total March crude imports were estimated by Refinitiv Oil Research at 116.73 million tonnes, equivalent to 27.60 million barrels per day (bpd). This was up almost 4% from February's 112.32 million tonnes, but down 6.1% on a daily basis from February's 29.4 million bpd, and also below January's 29.13 million bpd. However, the first three months of 2023 were stronger than every month in 2022, except for November when Asia's crude imports were 29.10 million bpd. Saudi Arabia reclaimed its place as China's top supplier with 8.08 million tonnes, or a share of 16.4%, edging out Russia at 7.95 million tonnes, or a share of 16.1%.

The government forecaster does expect Australia to export rising volumes of new energy metals, including lithium, nickel, copper and zinc. Coking coal shipments are expected to rise to 172 million tonnes from 164 million, although the price is forecast to drop to $185 a tonne from $296. Exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are expected to remain largely steady with the 80 million tonnes in 2027-28 being little changed from the 82 million in 2022-23. Iron ore export volumes are tipped to rise to 989 million tonnes by 2027-28 from the 887 million forecast for 2022-23. Overall, the Australian government is painting a strong outlook for commodity export volumes, but a soft outcome for prices, even for the energy transition metals.

This brings the total pledged output cuts by the group to around 3.66 million bpd, around 3.7% of global demand, and these are expected to remain in place until the end of the year. Saudi Arabia, the world's leading oil exporter, said the additional reduction is precautionary and aimed at achieving stability in the global oil market. Contained within the decision to cut output is the tacit admission that the demand side of the crude equation may not be as bullish as had been forecast by virtually every major energy body and the analyst community. Most likely it would have been well below the $79.77 a barrel it ended at on March 31, which was the closing price before Sunday's shock move to further cut output. China has also been accumulating more oil than it is consuming, despite rising domestic demand and refinery processing rates.

LAUNCESTON, Australia, March 28 (Reuters) - China's crude oil imports will average 10.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, matching the previous record high from 2020, according to the think tank of the country's leading energy group. What is interesting with the ETRI forecasts is that they would seem to show that China's refiners are still expecting to add crude oil to stockpiles over 2023. This is some 370,000 bpd more than the ETRI forecast for refinery throughput of 14.66 million bpd. China's crude oil imports seen rebounding to new high in 2023NEW REFINERIESIt's likely that some of the oil heading for storage will go to build working inventories for new plants expected to be commissioned this year. Flows in, or indeed out of, either commercial or strategic reserves are the biggest X-factor for China's crude oil imports.

LAUNCESTON, Australia, March 27 (Reuters) - The Australian natural gas sector believes it has the solution to warnings of a shortfall in domestic supplies in coming years. But a recent report from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AMEO) warned the domestic market may have insufficient supplies from this year out to 2025. The second is that if the LNG producers are forced by legislation to satisfy the domestic market first, they risk undermining Australia's reputation in Asia as one of the most reliable suppliers of energy. There is also a time factor, with it likely to take far longer to explore, develop and build the infrastructure than is available to avoid shortfalls in the domestic market. The first is to risk Australia's reputation as an energy supplier and future investment by forcing the LNG producers to supply the domestic market and curtail exports.

It's likely that the pace of imports has been maintained in March, with Refinitiv estimating arrivals of around 103 million tonnes, while Kpler forecasts 102.7 million. The question becomes what the risks are to the so far bullish start to 2023 for iron ore prices and volumes. The chief one is that China's economic recovery focuses more on boosting consumer spending than it does on rebuilding the residential property sector. CHINA IRON ORE IMPORTS VS SPOT PRICESTEEL DECLINE? The risk is that iron ore demand is being front-loaded into the first half of the year, and potentially will decline in the second, with the concomitant risk prices will also come under pressure.

☆ Norfolk Southern CEO says he supports parts of new rail safety bills
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Norfolk Southern CEO Alan Shaw on Wednesday told senators that his railroad company supports parts of two bipartisan rail safety bills that came in the wake of a derailment last month of a train carrying toxic materials in Ohio. Shaw did not fully endorse the Railway Safety Act, which includes provisions calling for two-person crews on all railroad locomotives. "We're not aware of any data that links crew size with safety," Shaw said Wednesday. "There are significant opportunities for advanced technology to enhance rail safety, and we encourage Congress to consider additional research into on-board rail car defect detection technology." Ohio sued Norfolk Southern last week, seeking damages, civil penalties and a "declaratory judgement that Norfolk Southern is responsible," Attorney General Dave Yost said.

☆ Norfolk Southern CEO told that railroads' planned voluntary safety improvements aren't enough
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Chris Isidore | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New York CNN —Norfolk Southern CEO Alan Shaw returns to Capitol Hill Wednesday facing pressure to support rail safety legislation proposed in the wake of his railroad’s massive toxic spill from a February 3 derailment in East Palestine, Ohio. “We support legislative efforts to enhance the safety of the freight rail industry,” was the only discussion of the legislation in his prepared remarks. Shaw said the railroad would support increasing fines and penalties for people found tampering with railroad facilities and safety equipment, without endorsing proposals for potential fines on railroads found guilty of safety violations. They said residents who live near freight rail tracks can’t depend on the railroad’s voluntary measures to improve safety. Vance said it is important to raise the maximum fine for rail safety violations from the current limit of $225,455.

"Indian firms that do not increase their prices and (don't) focus hard on profitability do so at their own peril. The move, while long-sought by overseas law firms, appears to have been somewhat unexpected in its timing. Foreign law firms have yet to announce plans for new offices in India but international firms like Allen & Overy and Herbert Smith Freehills told Reuters they are examining the new rules. Lalit Bhasin, who heads the Society of Indian Law Firms, said there were concerns that a foreign law firm might de facto operate as a full-service firm by hiring local law firms to advise on areas concerning Indian law. "Who is going to monitor whether that foreign law firm is not engaged in practice of Indian laws?"

☆ Inside the demise of Vice, from turning away a $3.5 billion Disney offer to a 'painful' downward spiral that has the media giant scrambling for a buyer
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Claire Atkinson | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +19 min

The talks fizzled, Disney backed off, and Smith set off for California to drum up other interest in Vice Media. Vice Media Group co-CEOs Bruce Dixon, left, and Hozefa Lokhandwala. Vice Media GroupOne former Vice insider familiar with the current situation told Insider that staffers were warning vendors they needed to threaten to stop work in order to get paid. Just a few months later, Rupert Murdoch tweeted, "Who's heard of Vice Media? Refinery29 quickly lost key staff and was not well integrated into Vice Media, the two former staffers said.

SYDNEY, March 20 (Reuters) - China still added more crude oil to inventories in the first two months of the year, despite lower imports and higher refinery processing rates. About 270,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude was added to commercial or strategic inventories over January and February, according to calculations based on official data. This was down from the 1.19 million bpd in December and the 740,000 bpd for 2022 as a whole. The total volume of crude available from imports and domestic production in the first two months of the year was 14.63 million bpd, consisting of imports of 10.4 million bpd and local output of 4.23 million bpd. This equates to about 1.72 million bpd of exports, using the BP conversion factor of 8 barrels of product per tonne.

☆ Fiction: ‘Biography of X’ by Catherine Lacey
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Sam Sacks | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

By the time of her sudden death in 1996, X had achieved worldwide celebrity for her tireless transformations and the mystique they sustained. But one role remained unknown to the public: That of the wife to a largely ordinary woman named C.M. “Biography of X” is framed as Lucca’s book, written partly to correct the errors of unauthorized biography but mostly in an anguished effort to uncover the secrets of a woman with whom she was so intimate yet knew not at all. As the chapters recount Lucca’s interviews with the people whom X, under different guises, knew, loved and exploited through the decades, it describes a strangely mutated version of American history as well. The imagined details of the Great Disunion, as it’s called, yo-yo between the plausible and the preposterous (FDR chief-of-staff Emma Goldman?

The rising spending on infrastructure and signs of less weakness in property investment are already showing up in China's iron ore imports. China's steel output also rose in the first two months of 2023, gaining 5.6% from the same period last year to reach 168.7 million tonnes. Rather, the data seems to be broadly supportive of a solid start to achieving China's stated economic growth target of 5% for 2023. It's likely that China's crude imports will accelerate from the second quarter onwards as the country continues to reopen after abandoning its strict zero-COVID policy. This would be up from February's 4.96 million tonnes and also above the 4.77 million from March last year.

China is on track to import 5.39 million tonnes of LNG in March, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler. This would be up from February's 4.96 million tonnes and also above the 4.77 million from March last year. Spot LNG prices soared last year in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine as European buyers sought large volumes in an effort to replace Russian pipeline natural gas. Effectively, Asia's LNG market has two current drivers, with cheaper spot prices encouraging buying in China, India and other price-sensitive importers such as Bangladesh. The other driver is milder than usual temperatures, which has curbed LNG imports in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

Nonetheless, the likely ramifications of the bank collapse are positive for gold, which was already being supported by other bullish factors. Charting global gold demand by segment. CHINA, INDIA DEMANDChief among those is the expectation that physical demand will rebound in China, traditionally the world's largest consumer of the precious metal. China's gold jewellery demand slumped 14%, or 101 tonnes, to 598.3 tonnes in 2022, according to data from industry group the World Gold Council. Central bank buying is the wildcard for gold, having risen a strong 152% in 2022 to 1,135.7 tonnes.

☆ Discord to roll out AI-powered chatbot, messaging features
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Sheila Dang | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Discord, which lets groups of users chat by text, video and voice, said it will revamp a bot called Clyde, who will now be powered by OpenAI technology. Discord users can invoke the AI-powered Clyde to answer trivia questions, help schedule meetings or recommend playlists, the company said. The tool will begin to roll out next week in a limited number of Discord groups, the company said. Discord said it will also experiment with OpenAI technology to improve an existing content moderation tool that helps automatically block harmful or unwanted messages from a Discord chat. The revamped tool can flag messages to moderators and also understand the context of the conversation, the company said.

☆ These 14 Democratic senators broke with Biden and voted against striking down the DC criminal code
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Bryan Metzger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Most Democratic senators voted for a GOP-led resolution overruling recent changes to DC's criminal code. The 14 who voted against the resolution framed it in part as a show of support for DC statehood. Just 14 Democratic senators voted against the resolution. Ahead of the vote, DC Council Chairman Phil Mendelson even attempted to withdraw the criminal reform legislation in an attempt to prevent a Senate vote. Here are the 14 Democratic senators who voted against the resolution:

However, exports of both fuels may drop in March with Refinitiv forecasting diesel shipments of just 120,000 bpd, which would be a nine-month low. Gasoline exports are also likely to slide in March, with Refinitiv estimating shipments at around 82,000 bpd. Improving domestic demand, planned refinery maintenance and lower profit margins in regional product margins are the main reasons that China's exports of diesel and gasoline are expected to drop sharply this month. China diesel exports vs Singapore gasoil crackTIGHTER MARKET? India's diesel exports were 470,000 bpd in February, the most since December 2021, according to data from commodity analysts Kpler, while its gasoline shipments were about 314,000 bpd, the most since April last year.

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