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☆ Premarket stocks: The rent is too damn high. It’s keeping interest rates elevated, too
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

In short, the rent is too damn high — and it’s keeping inflation and interest rates elevated alongside it. We’ll see if they’re right on Tuesday morning when February’s CPI data is due out. “Shelter inflation has been a big focal point for the market,” they wrote in a note on Monday. “We remain confident that [rent prices] will flatline in 2024, rather than fall,” Capital Economics analyst Thomas Ryan wrote in a recent note. That means a current deceleration in rent prices won’t be fully factored into inflation data until February 2025.

Persons: Greg McBride, ”, Jerome Powell, “ It’s, Powell, aren’t, “, Thomas Ryan, Ritti Singh, Singh, won’t, isn’t, Goldman Sachs, Clare Duffy, Reddit, it’s, That’s, Matt Egan, Joe Biden, Bespoke’s Paul Hickey, ” Hickey Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, CPI, Bank of America, ” Capital, Housing Justice, Fed, Dallas Fed, AAA, Federal, Investment Locations: New York

☆ China's valuations are 'way too low,' strategist says — here's why
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesValuations of Chinese stocks are "way too low" and investors should be looking to cautiously re-enter the world's second-largest economy, according to Shaun Rein, founder and managing director of the China Market Research Group. However, Rein attributed this to the Lunar New Year period, and insisted that deflation "still looms over the Chinese economy." "They're cautious about whether or not the government is going to launch a bazooka-like stimulus — clearly they're not going to." "But we think China's low inflation is a symptom of its growth model built on a high rate of investment. As reducing dependence on investment is still far off, we expect inflation to stay low in the long run."

Persons: Shaun Rein, Rein, CNBC's, Huang Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, China Market Research Group, Capital Economics Locations: China

☆ Consumer prices rose 0.4% in February and 3.2% from a year ago
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.4% on the month and was up 3.8% on the year. Food costs were flat on the month, while shelter rose another 0.4%. With home prices expected to rise this year and rents falling only slowly, the long-awaited fall in shelter prices isn't coming to the rescue any time soon," said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. Patrick T. Fallon | AFP | Getty ImagesAirline fares posted a 3.6% increase, apparel prices rose 0.6% and used vehicles were up 0.5%.

Persons: Dow Jones, Robert Frick, February's, Patrick T, Fallon, Jerome Powell, Paul Ashworth Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dow, BLS, Navy Federal Credit Union, AFP, Getty, North, Capital Economics Locations: Redondo Beach , California, North America

☆ 'Porous' sanctions haven't stopped Russia's war, but there's still more the West can do to squeeze its economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-10 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

According to Peach, sanctions haven't halted money from non-Western countries flowing to Russia. Even G7's bid to curb export income through a $60 per barrel cap on the price of oil hasn't really hobbled Moscow's oil trade. The West has reduced imports of Russian energy significantly but Russia has largely re-routed oil exports to Asia." Peach wrote that the West could squeeze Russian energy more by slapping secondary sanctions on third-party purchases of oil and gas from the country. AdvertisementBut it's unlikely for the West to take this path, he added, given Russia's energy dominance and the risk of sparking volatility that could end up antagonizing partners like India.

Persons: —, Vladimir Putin, Owen Matthews ,, Putin, Liam Peach, Peach, Matthews, Russia mobilizes Organizations: Service, Business, Capital Economics, Export, Central Bank of Russia, Russia, China Goods Trade, SA Locations: Ukraine, Moscow, Russia, Nord, Turkey, UAE, Asia, Europe, Russian, China, Dubai, American, India

☆ Oil prices up as world's top consumers boost demand
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices rose Friday due to increased demand in the U.S. and China, the world's top oil consumers, and a positive signal from the Fed on potential rate cuts. Oil prices rose on Friday, driven by growing demand in the United States and China, the world's biggest oil consumers, and as the U.S. Federal Reserve gave a positive signal on possibility of rate cuts. Both fell more than expected in a sign of a strong demand. Providing additional support to oil prices, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday that the U.S. central bank was "not far" from gaining enough confidence that inflation is falling to begin cutting interest rates. In Canada, TC Energy's Keystone oil pipeline resumed service on Thursday after going offline and temporarily restricting a major conduit of Canadian oil to the United States — one of the factors supporting prices in the previous session.

Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Brent, . West Texas, Energy Information Administration, ANZ Research, Capital Economics, TC, Keystone Locations: U.S, China, United States, Canada

☆ The housing market may finally be thawing as mortgage rates and housing inventory improve
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-07 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Mortgage rates eased for the first time in five weeks, Freddie Mac said Thursday. Easing affordability and improving inventory suggests a gradual thawing of the market. "It's important to remember that rates can vary widely between mortgage lenders so shopping around is essential." However, Capital Economics strategists wrote earlier in the week that easing mortgage rates won't be enough to spark a meaningful, lasting rebound in home demand. Advertisement"Even if mortgage rates fall to 6% as we expect, mortgage rate 'lock in' will continue to curb home moves," Capital Economics strategists wrote in a note.

Persons: Freddie Mac, —, — that's, Freddie Mac's, Sam Khater, Jerome Powell, Realtor.com, that's Organizations: Service, Capital

☆ UK Budget: Jeremy Hunt set to cut taxes for workers as election looms
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

A cut to national insurance — a levy paid by people who work — costing around £10 billion ($12.7 billion) is likely, according to multiple UK media reports. But soaring government debt, crumbling public services and a lackluster economy leave the chancellor with very little room for further substantial giveaways. Christopher Furlong/Getty ImagesOther so-called “unprotected” areas of the national budget, such as social care and the police force, are also at risk. “That seems unlikely when public services are creaking,” they added. OBR chair Richard Hughes said in January that the government had provided no detailed breakdown of departmental spending plans beyond March next year, giving only headline figures.

Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Rishi Sunak’s, Hunt, ”, Laura Kuenssberg, Jeff, Christopher Furlong, “, Richard Hughes, ” Hughes Organizations: London CNN —, Bank of England, Treasury, “ Conservatives, ” Hunt’s Conservative Party, Labour Party, Reuters, Office, National Statistics, Local Government Association, House, National Health Service, Capital Economics, ” Locations: Ukraine, Birmingham, England

☆ China's real estate slump is about to get worse
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Capital Economics said the "unavoidable structural decline" in China's property sector has only just begun. AdvertisementSeveral years in and China's prolonged real estate slump has been well-documented, but the landscape may be about to deteriorate further as construction enters a deeper correction, Capital Economics said in a note Wednesday. AdvertisementResidential real estate activity in China Capital Economics, CEICSizable infrastructure support has prevented construction from falling as much as anticipated. As Capital Economics highlights, real estate construction remains an opaque measurement in China. In Capital Economics' view, Beijing will drag it out longer so that it doesn't fully materialize until 2030.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, Economics, China Capital Economics, Capital Economics, Capital Locations: China's, Beijing, China

☆ Egypt hikes interest rates by 600 basis points, pound crumbles to record low
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Egypt's pound hit a record low against the dollar on Wednesday after its central bank hiked interest rates by 600 points and devalued the currency. The Egyptian pound was trading at roughly 50 to the dollar following the announcement, from 30.85 previously, according to LSEG data. The country's key interest rate now stands at 27.25%, the central bank said Wednesday. Egypt, the Arab world's most populous country at roughly 110 million people, is facing a protracted shortage of foreign currency. "In preparation for the successful implementation of these measures, sufficient funding has been secured to avail foreign exchange liquidity."

Persons: James Swanston, Egypt's Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Economics, United, IMF, Monetary, Government, P Global Market Intelligence Locations: Egypt, East, Africa, London, United Arab Emirates, Cairo

☆ Nigeria battles to halt spiraling currency crisis and rising food insecurity
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

IBADAN, Nigeria - Feb. 19, 2024: Demonstrators hold placards during a protest against the hike in price and hard living conditions in Ibadan on February 19, 2024. Inflation hit an annual 29.9% in January, driven by soaring food prices that have triggered a cost-of-living crisis in Africa's largest economy. The naira currency, meanwhile, plunged to an all-time low of around 1,600 against the U.S. dollar in late February. "With about 8 percent of Nigerians deemed food insecure, addressing rising food insecurity is the immediate policy priority." IBADAN, Nigeria - Feb. 19, 2024: Demonstrators are seen at a protest against the hike in price and hard living conditions in Ibadan on February 19, 2024.

Persons: Samuel Alabi, Bola Tinubu's, David Omojomolo, Olayemi Cardoso Organizations: Afp, Getty Images, International Monetary Fund, U.S, Bloomberg, Getty, Washington, D.C, IMF, Central Bank of, Capital Economics Locations: IBADAN, Nigeria, Ibadan, Getty Images Nigeria, Africa's, LAGOS, Lagos, Africa

☆ The mortgage 'lock-in' effect is here to stay and home prices won't fall for years to come, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Easing mortgage rates won't fully unwind the "lock in" effect, Capital Economics said. Home moves and market activity will remain muted even if borrowing costs become more attractive. "Even if mortgage rates fall to 6% as we expect, mortgage rate 'lock in' will continue to curb home moves," Capital Economics strategists said. In the research group's view, housing market activity will remain muted as competition for homes stays tight and affordability remains historically low. The strategists expect mortgage rates, too, will continue to trend above pre-pandemic levels.

Persons: — Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Capital

☆ Dollar a spectator to China news, yen ponders rate risks
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

There was more action in bitcoin , which gained 1.2% to $68,341 after surging more than 7% on Monday. The Japanese yen held steady after data showed Tokyo core inflation sped up to 2.5% in February, from 1.8% the previous month. "Accordingly, we're sticking to our forecast that the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates into positive territory next month." The dollar was a fraction lower at 150.44 yen , having again shied away from resistance around 150.85, which has capped the currency for more than three months now. The European Central Bank, or ECB, holds a meeting on Thursday and markets are convinced it will keep rates at 4.0%.

Persons: Marcel Thieliant, Jerome Powell, Sterling, Jeremy Hunt Organizations: People's Congress, Bank of Japan's, Capital Economics, Bank of, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ECB, Westpac, . Finance Locations: China, Tokyo, Japan, bitcoin, United States, Beijing, Asia, Bank of Japan

☆ Turkish annual inflation soars to 67% in February
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Turkish annual consumer price inflation soared to 67.07% in February, the Turkish Statistical Institute said Monday, coming in above expectations. Analysts polled by Reuters had anticipated annual inflation would climb to 65.7% last month. The combined sector of hotels, cafes and restaurants saw the greatest annual price inflation increase at 94.78%, followed by education at 91.84%, while the rate for health stood at 81.25% and transportation at 77.98%, according to the statistical institute. "Obviously a disappointing set of inflation prints this morning," Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, wrote in a note. He added that this development has "continued to put downward pressure on the lira," creating an inflation pass-through.

Persons: Liam Peach, Mehmet Simsek, Turkey's, Timothy Ash, Ash Organizations: Turkish Statistical Institute, Reuters, Food, Economics, Capital Economics, Turkish, BlueBay Asset Management, FX Locations: Sariyer, Istanbul, Turkish, London

☆ Premarket stocks: Retailers warn Wall Street to expect less shopping this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Lowe’s: The home improvement giant projected total sales of $84 billion to $85 billion for 2024 in fourth-quarter results reported on Tuesday. Mortgage rates edge closer to 7%, dampening start of spring homebuying seasonUS mortgage rates climbed for the fourth week in a row, inching closer to 7% just as peak homebuying season gets underway, reports my colleague Anna Bahney. “Mortgage rates continued their ascent this week, reaching a two-month high and flirting with 7% yet again,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, in a statement. Since reaching a 20-year high of 7.79% in October, mortgage rates have been slowly falling. But in recent weeks, as the market absorbs expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut its benchmark lending rate until later this year, mortgage rates have trended higher.

Persons: they’re, ”, Marvin Ellison, Macy’s, Tony Spring, Corie Barry, ’, ” Barry, Diksha Madhok, Hanna Ziady, “, Thamashi De Silva, Knight Frank, Read, Anna Bahney, Freddie Mac, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, Khater Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN — Companies, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, United States’s, Gross, Capital Economics, “ Locations: New York, That’s, India

☆ Wall Street takes bets on which major central bank will blink first
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Brendan McDermid | Reuterswatch nowSwiss headline inflation fell from 1.7% in December to 1.3% in January, well below consensus forecasts, while core inflation dropped from 1.5% to 1.2%. Analysts at Capital Economics said the steep decline meant inflation "looks sure to undershoot the SNB's Q1 forecast of 1.8%." "However, with the January inflation downside surprise, the SNB forecast looks too high to us, and the probability of a policy rate cut on 21 March has increased. Bank of Japan to end negative rate era While most major central banks are looking at loosening monetary policy after more than two years of aggressive tightening to combat rampant inflation, the question for the Bank of Japan is the opposite. The country's core inflation rate — which excludes food and energy — fell to 2% year-on-year in January, after a third monthly increase, surprising slightly to the upside and suggesting that a sustainable return to ultra-low inflation may not be in the cards.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Société Générale, Kit Juckes Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, Capital Economics, UBS, Bank of Japan, Bank of Locations: New York City, U.S, Bank of Japan, French

☆ India GDP: Country’s economy ended 2023 ‘with a bang’ as growth surged to 8.4%
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Gross domestic product in India surged 8.4% in the final three months of 2023 compared with a year prior, up from growth of 7.6% in the June-to-September period, the country’s statistics office said Thursday. The latest rise is much stronger than analysts expected and means India’s economy “ended last year with a bang,” Thamashi De Silva, assistant India economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note. “That pace of growth was the strongest among major economies last quarter,” she said, also noting that in 2023 as a whole GDP grew 7.7%. Analysts at Jefferies expect the country to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2027, up from fifth currently. But “any slowdown in growth will be mild, particularly as the government’s infrastructure drive is likely to prop up activity,” she added.

Persons: “, Thamashi De Silva, ”, Narendra Modi, Elon Musk, India “, Modi, ” Musk, De Silva Organizations: London CNN, Gross, Capital Economics, Monetary Fund, Jefferies, Apple Locations: India, China, Washington, Beijing

☆ The office market is so bleak that Canada's largest pension fund sold its stake in an NYC building for $1
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Canada's largest pension fund sold a stake in a New York building for $1. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board did not immediately respond to Business Insider's request for comment. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board operates a $436.9 billion fund, with a global real estate portfolio worth roughly $30.6 billion. According to the Bloomberg report, the pension isn't backing out entirely from the office real estate sector, but it's also limiting its holdings in the space. Economists at Moody's, too, expect more pain ahead for commercial real estate.

Persons: —, it's, Goldman Sachs, Moody's Organizations: Service, Pension Plan Investment Board, Bloomberg, Pension Plan Investment, Boston Properties, Santa, Santa Monica Business Park, Bank, New York Community Bank Locations: New York, Canada, Santa Monica, Silicon, Moody's

☆ Investors and execs eye Trump's potential return to the White House
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-26 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

AdvertisementThe 2024 presidential election seems destined to be the rematch many voters have been expecting : President Joe Biden against former President Donald Trump. So what would Trump's return to the White House mean for stocks? President Joe Biden gives remarks on the conflict between Israel and Palestine at the White House in Washington on October 7, 2023. During his speech, President Biden reiterated the United States' support for Israel. Amanda Andrade-Rhoades/For The Washington Post via Getty ImagesAmong the world's more powerful people, opinions are divided on the impact of Trump's return.

Persons: we've, Donald Trump, Donald Trump grins, Chip Somodevilla, Joe Biden, Trump, Nikki Haley, Haley, Biden, Trump's, that's, Matthew Fox, James Reilly, Amanda Andrade, Rhoades, didn't, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Ray Dalio, Tesla, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger, Francois G . Durand, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Dick Costolo, Elon, Rebecca Zisser, Gen Zers, Millennials, Uber, Dow, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover, Grace Lett Organizations: South, GOP, Trump, South Carolina GOP, Gov, Nasdaq, Capital Economics, White, Israel, Washington, Getty, Economic, CNBC, Bridgewater, Nvidia, Berkshire, SpaceX, Dow Jones, US Locations: New Hampshire, China, Capital, Israel, Palestine, Washington, United States, Russia, Ukraine, New York, London, Chicago

☆ Why India’s economy under Modi offers a real alternative to China
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-26 | by ( Diksha Madhok | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

The market value of companies listed on India’s exchanges crossed $4 trillion in late November. But the country is stuck in recession and recently lost its position as the world’s third biggest economy to Germany. While interest in the world’s fifth largest economy is rising, the lofty prices of India’s stocks are scaring some international investors away. According to Macquarie, retail investors alone own 9% of India’s equity market value versus foreign investors at slightly under 20%. China “has a few too many companies which are $100 and $200 billion plus [in value],” Mittal said.

Persons: Peeyush Mittal, there’s, ”, Mittal, They’ve, Narendra Modi, Indranil Mukherjee, Jefferies, “, MSCI, Aditya Suresh, Modi’s, Modi, there’ll, ” Suresh, shoring, Hubert de Barochez, Elon Musk, India “, ” Musk, Suresh, Satish Babu, China “, ” Mittal, Priyanka Agnihotri, Nirmala Sitharaman Organizations: New, New Delhi CNN —, Matthews Asia, Getty, Macquarie Capital, Bharatiya Janata Party, Monetary Fund, Jefferies, Capital Economics, Apple, Foxconn, ”, Workers, Chennai Metro Rail, Advisory, Indian Locations: New Delhi, Jaipur, San Francisco, India, China, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Japan, Germany, Beijing, Washington, “ India, Macquarie, Chennai, Baltimore

☆ Fed rate hikes are creeping back into the conversation
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. AdvertisementExperts maintain that any hikes this year are unlikely, but say it's notable how they have creeped back into the policy conversation once again. "You can't say zero probability for something to break in the event of another rate hike," Jason Draho, head of asset allocation in the Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management, told Business Insider. "That last mile [of inflation] will be harder to obtain," Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise Financial's chief market strategist, told Business Insider. "The Fed's erring on the side of hawkishness," Hunter told Business Insider.

Persons: —, Larry Summers, Summers, Jason Draho, you'd, Goldman Sachs, Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise, Paul Mielczarski, Mielczarski, Ameriprise's Saglimbene, Andrew Hunter, Hunter Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, PPI, Fed, Former, Bloomberg, Traders, UBS Global Wealth Management, Capital Economics Locations: Americas, OER, Brandywine, hawkishness

☆ Premarket stocks: Joe Biden’s top economic adviser isn’t worried about the latest inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-20 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

New York CNN —US markets broke a five-week winning streak last Friday after disappointing inflation data reignited economic and interest rate-related fears on Wall Street. Then last week, two key inflation indicators for January — the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index — rose above Wall Street expectations. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the new data showed that the Fed needs more confidence before cutting rates. I think in this case, the market isn’t necessarily telling you much about the economy’s fundamentals, the market is telling you what other market participants think. And I think that those economic fundamentals get you to the part that says, you know, it’s not not the economy.

Persons: Price, Thomas Barkin, Raphael Bostic, isn’t, Bell, Jared Bernstein, Joe Biden, I’m, they’re, It’s, it’s, Joe Weisenthal, Elisabeth Buchwald, Hanna Ziady, Liam Peach, ” Peach Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Richmond Fed, White House Council, Economic Advisers, CPI, Apple, Google, Nvidia, Microsoft, Capital, Discover Financial Services, Discover, Hamas, Gross, Israel’s, Bureau, Statistics, Capital Economics Locations: New York

☆ LPR: China makes biggest-ever cut to key mortgage rate to support housing market
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-20 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Hong Kong CNN —China’s central bank has cut its key mortgage reference rate by a record amount, as it ramps up efforts to stem a prolonged property crisis. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced Tuesday that it would cut its five-year loan prime rate (LPR) from 4.2% to 3.95%, while keeping the one-year LPR unchanged at 3.45%. The 25 basis point cut to the five-year LPR is the biggest reduction the central bank has made since it revamped its LPR system in 2019. The latest cut was also the first reduction to the five-year LPR since June 2023. “Today’s 25 (basis point) cut to the five-year LPR is clearly aimed at supporting the housing market,” analysts from Capital Economics said in a note on Tuesday.

Persons: “, ” Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, People’s Bank of China, Capital Economics, Zhongrong Trust, State Administration of Foreign Exchange Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen

☆ Israel’s economy slumps in the fourth quarter as war takes a toll
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-19 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

London CNN —Israel’s output contracted sharply in the final three months of 2023, falling for the first time in nearly two years, as the war with Hamas takes a heavy toll on the economy. The conflict is expected to cost Israel around 255 billion shekels ($70.3 billion) by the end of 2025, equivalent to around 13% of GDP, according to the Bank of Israel. And earlier this month, Moody’s delivered Israel’s first ever credit rating downgrade, citing elevated political risk and deteriorating public finances stemming from the war. “Under a scenario of outright conflict… the negative economic impact would spread to more sectors and be longer-lasting,” Moody’s said. In 2023 as a whole, Israel’s economy grew 2%, according to the statistics office.

Persons: Liam Peach, ” Peach, Moody’s, Israel’s, ”, ” Moody’s, Ido Soen Organizations: London CNN, Hamas, Gross, Israel’s, Bureau, Statistics, Israel, Capital Economics, Bank of Israel Locations: Gaza, Israel, Lebanese

☆ If you are waiting to buy an affordable home when rates drop, you're out of luck
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-17 | by ( Allie Kelly | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewInterest rates could drop by summer, according to Federal Reserve forecasts, but buyers shouldn't expect homes to become more affordable. For prospective homebuyers, the cuts could be a path toward relief from skyrocketing mortgage rates. 30-year fixed mortgage rates are now sitting just above 6.6%, which translates to around $2,800 in average monthly payments nationwide. "Mortgage rates have come down a bit in anticipation of lower rates." Steep interest rates in recent years have made homeowners less likely to sell, contributing to a housing shortage in many cities.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Gen Zers, Louis Fed Organizations: Service, Reserve, Business, Economics Locations: New York, Chicago, Seattle, San Francisco, San Jose, Boston

☆ 'Bubble may be far from bursting': Capital Economics says S&P 500 could hit 6,500 by end of next year
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 closed above 5,000 for the first time last week. However, investors need not fear as the rally could still have plenty of room to run, according to Capital Economics. However, Higgins continued: "valuation remains far short of what it reached then, suggesting that it has plenty more room to inflate." Capital Economics also noted the index's current rally is highly concentrated in mega-cap tech stocks like Apple and Microsoft . While acknowledging that it's impossible to predict bubbles, Capital Economics suggested that sustained modest earnings growth could see the rally continue through 2025.

Persons: John Higgins, Higgins Organizations: Capital Economics, Economics, Apple, Microsoft Locations: London

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