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German budget crisis: The economy is structurally weak, ING says
  + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGerman budget crisis: The economy is structurally weak, ING saysCarsten Brzeski of ING says "it needs a lot of structural transitions, but that is something the constitutional debt brake has not foreseen."
Persons: Carsten Brzeski Organizations: ING
German budget crisis will haunt economy for years
  + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Pierre Briancon | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
LONDON, Nov 24 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The German government is working hard to demonstrate the foolishness of the country’s iron-clad ban on large budget deficits. The budget crisis will cripple the economy for years to come, for three reasons. The debt brake, which limits structural budget deficits to 0.35% of GDP, has only been suspended for this year’s budget. Public net investment has been negative for 20 years, Marcel Fratzscher, head of the German Institute for Economic Research, has pointed out. The country is not on the cusp of a debt crisis.
Persons: Carsten Brzeski, That’s, Marcel Fratzscher, Christian Lindner, Lindner, George Hay, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, Constitutional, Organisation for Economic Co, Development, ING, German Economic Institute, Public, German Institute for Economic Research, German, Germany’s, Thomson Locations: Europe, Berlin
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGovernment's attempt to circumvent debt brake main problem for Germany, professor saysThiess Buettner, chair of the advisory board of Germany's Stability Council, discusses the postponement of the German budget talks.
Persons: Thiess Buettner Organizations: Stability Locations: Germany
Steel coils are waiting for delivery at the storage and distribution facility of German steel maker ThyssenKrupp in Duisburg, Germany, November 16, 2023. Scholz's three-way coalition is reeling from a court ruling last week that wiped 60 billion euros ($65 billion) from the budget at a stroke and forced it to freeze most new spending commitments, delaying talks on the 2024 budget. LOSS OF CONFIDENCEGermany's steel sector added its voice to the growing jitters, warning that the court ruling had put a question mark over more than 40 billion euros in planned investments. "I find it correct that the consequences of the constitutional court ruling ... are checked carefully," Scholz told a news conference. Scholz also described this as conceivable, participants at the meeting told Reuters, adding that the court ruling put the coalition into a difficult situation but it could be resolved.
Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Robert Grundke, Bernhard Osburg, Osburg, Berlin, Scholz, Achim Post, Andreas Rinke, Christoph Steitz, Holger Hansen, Rene Wagner, Matthias Williams, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Economic Cooperation, Development, Reuters, Scholz's Social Democrats, Thomson Locations: Duisburg, Germany, FRANKFURT, Paris, United States, decarbonisation
Breakingviews category · November 24, 2023The German government is working hard to demonstrate the foolishness of the country’s iron-clad ban on large budget deficits. It now says it will suspend the “debt brake” after the Constitutional Court forced it to cancel some 60 billion euros worth of fiscal spending that it had included in a 210 billion euro climate and transformation fund. But the welcome relief is only temporary, and the harm is done. The budget crisis will cripple the economy for years to come, for three reasons.
Organizations: Constitutional
Germany Announces Special Budget to Avert Crisis
  + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( Melissa Eddy | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
How We Got Here: A court ruling put spending plans into disarray. The move came after days of uncertainty triggered by the ruling from the country’s highest court that declared elements of the 2023 budget invalid because of a rule that limits borrowing. Mr. Lindner, who leads the fiscally conservative Free Democrats party, has vowed to abide by the borrowing limits for the 2023 budget. “No new debt will be taken on, but the funds already used to overcome the crisis will be placed on a secure legal basis,” Mr. Lindner said in a statement on Thursday. Economists and business leaders, as well as some lawmakers from Mr. Scholz’s three-party coalition, demanded Mr. Lindner take action to clarify spending plans for 2023 to ensure stability and clear the way for lawmakers to approve a budget for 2024.
Persons: Lindner, Mr, Olaf Scholz, Scholz’s Organizations: Free Democrats Locations: Ukraine
Germany didn't get to this point overnight, however — in ways, the roots of the current crisis even predate the pandemic. The government took on emergency debt to try to stem the impact the pandemic had on its budget through a temporary debt brake suspension. And so, the current coalition government decided to re-allocate it to finance policies aimed at climate change and a greener, more sustainable economy. Some observers (and several Green party members), have suggested that the climate crisis is as much of an emergency as the pandemic. But the court's ruling stands, and Germany's budget now has a 60-billion-euro ($65 billion) hole.
Persons: Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Robert Habeck, Sean Gallup, Germany didn't, fumbling, Jan Techau, Mujtaba Rahman, Jens Larsen Organizations: Finance, Getty, Greens, Free Democratic Party, Eurasia Group Locations: Berlin, Germany
Circuit Judge Reid Scott rejected Tesla's motion to summarily dismiss Kim Banner's lawsuit accusing the company of causing her husband Jeremy Banner's death in 2019. In a 23-page ruling, Scott found that Kim Banner's attorneys presented sufficient evidence to let the case proceed to trial sometime next year. But Scott agreed that Banner's attorneys had provided enough evidence for the case to proceed. The board said Tesla's Autopilot should have safeguards that don't allow the system’s use on highways that have cross-traffic. The car should also make certain drivers using Autopilot remain engaged with their hands on the wheel.
Persons: , Tesla, Elon Musk, Judge Reid Scott, Kim, Jeremy Banner's, Scott, Whitney Cruz, Trey Lytal, Jeremy Banner, ” Lytal, Musk, , Reid, Banner, Kim Banner Organizations: Associated Press, National Transportation Safety Board, NTSB Locations: FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla, Florida, Beach
The court ruled the budget manoeuvre was incompatible with the debt restrictions enshrined in Germany's constitution. The pressure is even more intense as talks for next year's budget are on the final stretch. Highlighting the gravity of the situation, the government has already imposed a freeze on most new spending commitments on ministries. "German industry is looking at the current political situation with the greatest concern," said Siegfried Russwurm, president of the BDI industry association. One obstacle to reforming the debt brake, which restricts Germany's structural budget deficit to the equivalent of 0.35% of gross domestic product, has been Finance Minister Christian Lindner.
Persons: Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Robert Habeck, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, Siegfried Russwurm, Holger Hansen, Christian Kraemer, Andreas Rinke, Madeline Chambers, Miranda Murray, Alex Richardson Organizations: Finance, Climate, Europe's, Social Democrat, Greens, Free Democrats, Fund, Reuters, Ukraine, Greens Economy, U.S, Intel, European, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, reallocating, Berlin, Ukraine
Their options include drawing up a supplementary budget for 2023 and suspending Germany's self-imposed debt brake before reinstating it for next year. "Our goal is to discuss the budget quickly but with due care," said a joint statement of ruling party lawmakers. The delay has heightened uncertainty about spending in all areas of the German economy and meant the 2024 budget might not be concluded before the end of the year. "I firmly assume that the commitments for Intel and TSMC will remain," a government source said, adding: "This is very important to the chancellor, as well as to the economy minister." This will happen in the course of next early 2024 and we will see how far hydrogen is available," CEO Miguel Lopez said.
Persons: Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Robert Habeck, Olaf Scholz's, Scholz's, Siegfried Russwurm, TSMC, Scholz, Miguel Lopez, Holger Hansen, Christian Kraemer, Victoria Waldersee, Andreas Rinke, Madeline Chambers, Matthias Williams, Miranda Murray, Alex Richardson, Christina Fincher Organizations: Finance, Climate, Government, Ukraine Industry, Intel, TSMC, Wednesday, Social Democrat, Greens, Free Democrats, Fund, Eurasia Group, U.S, BMW, Volkswagen, Thomson Locations: TSMC BERLIN, Germany's, Ukraine, EU, Saxony, Anhalt, Berlin, Germany
Opinion | A United Ireland May Be More Than a Dream
  + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Megan K. Stack | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
The agreement, he told me, is like a train with only one destination: a united Ireland. The agreement simply handed self-determination to the people of Northern Ireland. What Mr. Bryson is protesting, in other words, is the failure of a fair process to dependably produce the results he wants. The Northern Ireland Assembly will vote, every four or eight years, on whether to keep the protocols in place, and one-third of Northern Ireland lawmakers, so long as they represent at least two parties, will be able to formally object to E.U. Once again, Northern Ireland will get what a majority want.
Persons: Bryson won’t, That’s, Bryson, you’re, , we’re Organizations: Northern, Northern Ireland Assembly, European Union Locations: Belfast, Ireland, Northern Ireland, Britain
Chancellor Olaf Scholz speaks next to Finance Minister Christian Lindner and Economy and Climate Minister Robert Habeck during a hearing at Germany’s lower house of parliament Bundestag in Berlin, Germany, November 15, 2023. The finance ministry has frozen future spending pledges across almost the entire federal budget, a letter by the budget state secretary showed, in a sign of how seriously it was taking the potential fallout to its finances. "The step reflects the necessity of the situation," an economy ministry spokesperson said about the budget freeze. That could include planned chip factories, the expansion of the battery supply chain and the decarbonisation of steel, government sources said on Monday. ($1 = 0.9168 euros)Additional reporting by Andreas Rinke; writing by Matthias Williams and Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Robert Habeck, Annegret, Freeze, Olaf Scholz's, Kevin Kuehnert, that's, Kuehnert, Volker Wissing, Wissing, Andreas Rinke, Matthias Williams, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Finance, Climate, REUTERS, BERLIN, Free Democrats, Democrats, CDU, Scholz's Social Democrats, Greens, Digital, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, Ukraine
The decision has increased tensions within Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition, in particular between junior partners the Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP). But Scholz is unlikely to call for new elections as they would not benefit any of the coalition partners. "Scholz definitely wants to keep the government together and believes this will work as none of the three coalition partners stand to benefit from a break," a source close to the chancellor said. "In reality, the chancellor should dismiss his coalition partners now." "And the strength of the AfD is also the reason why no actors - not even the conservatives - currently have any interest in new elections."
Persons: Sarah Marsh, Holger Hansen, Andreas Rinke BERLIN, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, Philipp Tuermer, Scholz, Stefan Marschall, Ursula Muench, Frank Decker, Friedrich Merz, Markus Soeder, Decker, Andreas Rinke, Alexander Ratz, Catherine Evans Organizations: Greens, Free Democrats, Scholz's Social Democrats, Tagesspiegel, Bertelsmann Foundation, SPD, University of Duesseldorf, University of Tutzing, Bonn University, Eurasia Group Locations: Ukraine, Germany, Bavarian
REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Nov 20 (Reuters) - U.S. auto safety regulators said Monday they had opened a probe into 16 separate recalls issued by Hyundai (005380.KS) and Kia (000270.KS) covering 6.4 million vehicles relating to brake fluid leaks that could result in fires. The automakers said internal brake fluid leaks can cause an electrical short that could lead to a fire. Kia said the Hydraulic Electronic Control Unit (HECU) in the vehicles may experience an electrical short as a result of brake fluid leaks. Hyundai said the Anti-Lock Brake System (ABS) module may leak brake fluid internally and cause an electrical short. The September recall covered 1.73 million Kia Borrego, Cadenza, Forte, Sportage, K900, Optima, Soul Rio, Sorento and Rondo vehicles from various model years for each vehicle from 2010 through 2017.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Kia, Kia Borrego, Forte, Sportage, David Shepardson, Bernadette Baum, Louise Heavens Organizations: Hyundai Motor, New York, REUTERS, Rights, Hyundai, Kia, Korean, Control, Traffic Safety Administration, Tucson Fuel Cell, Santa Fe Sport, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, KS, United States, Santa Fe, Veracruz, Tucson
The government is considering whether to suspend Germany's constitutionally enshrined debt brake as a way out of the spending crunch, a source told Reuters, while a leading member of Scholz's own party also called for such a move. Habeck said he was not proposing to abolish Germany's constitutionally enshrined debt brake, but added that "it is inflexible". We are now being forced to modernize the economy with fewer public subsidies," he told the Bild am Sonntag newspaper. "Rather, it is the unsound and unconstitutional budget policy of the federal government and the (three-way) coalition. "One possibility could be to suspend the debt brake in 2023 ... but then not in 2024.
Persons: Robert Habeck, Minister Christian Lindner, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, Germany's, Lindner, Habeck, Sebastian Brehm, Markus Wacket, Christian Kraemer, Matthias Williams, Miranda Murray, Ed Osmond, Paul Simao Organizations: Minister, Reuters, Greens, Free Democrats, CDU, CSU, Thomson Locations: United States
German budget crisis tests limits of its 'debt brake'
  + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The ruling has sent budget talks into disarray and sparked calls within Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition to suspend a constitutionally enshrined "debt brake" that sets legal limits on borrowing. WHAT IS THE DEBT BRAKE AND WHY WAS IT INTRODUCED? HAS GERMANY SUSPENDED ITS DEBT BRAKE BEFORE? Some analysts say the debt brake is ripe for reform and a more flexible fiscal policy would let governments take on more debt to fund much-needed investments. The government is still weighing options, including suspending the debt brake or curtailing spending.
Persons: Kai Pfaffenbach, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, Angela Merkel's, Christian Lindner, Carsten Brzeski, Philippa Sigl, Robert Habeck, Riham Alkousaa, Holger Hansen, Matthias Williams, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Finance, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, GERMANY, Ukraine
Which is stronger will tip the balance of the South American country's presidential election on Sunday and may reshape its diplomatic ties, economic future, and the wider region's political fault lines. 'NOT MY FIRST CHOICE'Neither Massa or Milei goes into the second round with a strong mandate. "For me, neither of them represents the hopes that I have for the future of the country. This would likely put a brake on more radical reforms and force Massa or Milei to moderate. The powerful regional governors are also split between the Peronists and the main conservative coalition, with none allied to Milei.
Persons: Javier Milei, Matias Baglietto, Sergio Massa, Massa, Donald Trump, Raquel Pampa, " Massa, Fernando Pedernera, Milei's, Mario Vargas Llosa, Milei, Nicolas Troitino, Valentina, Gonzalo, Benjamin Gedan, Wilson, Adam Jourdan, Horacio Soria, Rosalba O'Brien Organizations: Argentine, REUTERS, American, International Monetary Fund, Mercosur, Massa, Milei, America, Thomson Locations: Cordoba, Argentina, BUENOS AIRES, Buenos Aires, China, Brazil, Mexico, Spain, Chile, Colombia
REUTERS/Liesa Johannssen/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsBERLIN, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Germany's budget committee paused final deliberations on the 2024 draft budget early on Friday morning, according to the chief budget officers of the coalition government, after a constitutional court ruling threw negotiations into disarray. The contents of the ministries' budgets were finalised during the committee meeting, the budget officers said. On Wednesday, the constitutional court decision prompted the government to postpone the formal vote of the budget committee until next Thursday. Despite the court ruling, the 2024 budget is expected to be passed as planned at the end of the Bundestag's budget week on Dec. 1, according to members of the budget committee. The chief budget officers of the coalition government accused the opposition of refusing to cooperate in budget deliberations.
Persons: Liesa, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, Joerg Kraemer, Friedrich Merz, Commerzbank's Kraemer, Maria Martinez, Holger Hansen, Clarence Fernandez, Gerry Doyle Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Greens, Free Democrats, European Commission, dpa, Bundestag's Energy, CDU, CSU, Christian Democratic Union, ESF, Economic, Stabilization, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, Ukraine
Underscoring the frustration, Economy Minister Robert Habeck, a member of the pro-spending Greens, called the verdict "a huge blow to industrial policy". Speaking to parliament, Habeck warned the court ruling put at risk support for the steel sector, which is counting on subsidies to decarbonise and stay competitive. Finance Minister Christian Lindner meanwhile said it was too early to discuss the consequences of the court ruling. "The steel industry alone can contribute to reducing a third of total industrial emissions - and thus has enormous leverage to save millions of tons of CO2 in the coming years." "The political bottom line is that many coalition disputes will reopen as serious budget constraints kick in.
Persons: Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Robert Habeck, BERLIN, Wednesday's, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Habeck, Yesenn, DBRS Morningstar, hawkish Lindner, Lindner, Bernhard Osburg, Carsten Brzeski, Eurointelligence, Maria Martinez, Christian Kraemer, Andreas Rinke, Markus Wacket, Tom Kaeckenhoff, Matthias Williams, Alexandra Hudson, Susan Fenton Organizations: Finance, Climate, Economy, Greens, CHANGE, Budget, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: United States, Berlin, Germany
Why It Matters: A Restraint on Germany’s Green Ambitions. The Climate Transformation Fund has €212 billion dedicated to projects from 2024 to 2027. The court ruled that it must now be reduced by €60 billion, the money added from unused pandemic funds. Heart of the Issue: Germany’s ‘Debt Brake’Germany is the only leading industrial economy to have a so-called debt brake written into its constitution. “The circumvention of the debt brake is becoming increasingly absurd,” said Marcel Fratzscher, head of the German Institute for Economic Research, a Berlin-based think tank.
Persons: , Marcel Fratzscher, Organizations: , German Institute for Economic Research, Social Democrats, Greens, Free Democrats Locations: Germany, Berlin, Ukraine
[1/3] FILE PHOTO: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz looks on as he meets NATO's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Berlin, Germany, November 9, 2023. Wednesday's decision by the constitutional court could also set a precedent for fiscal responses to future crises. "FAR-REACHING CONSEQUENCES""The court ruling has far-reaching consequences for fiscal policy in Germany," said Clemens Fuest, President of the Ifo economic institute. This was done with the Second Supplementary Budget Act 2021, which retroactively amended the Budget Act for 2021. The constitutional court ruled that this act was incompatible with Germany's Basic Law and so was void.
Persons: Olaf Scholz, Jens Stoltenberg, Liesa, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, Christian Lindner, Lindner, Scholz, Robert Habeck, Clemens Fuest, Ralph Solveen, Habeck, Friedrich Merz, Maria Martinez, Christian Kraemer, Ursula Knapp, Matthias Williams, Kirsti Knolle, Madeline Chambers, Susan Fenton, William Maclean, Catherine Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Finance, Union, Social Democrats, Free Democrats, Christian Democratic Union, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, Ukraine
German Court deals blow to Scholz government with budget ruling
  + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Germany's constitutional court ruled on Wednesday that the government's re-allocation of 60 billion euros ($65 billion) of unused debt from the pandemic era to a climate fund was illegal, dealing a blow to Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition. This was done with the Second Supplementary Budget Act 2021, which retroactively amended the Budget Act for 2021. The constitutional court ruled that this act was incompatible with Germany's Basic Law and so was void. In addition, the government changed the accounting principal by which borrowing counted against the budget deficit in the year the borrowing was actually done. "The court ruling has far-reaching consequences for fiscal policy in Germany," said Clemens Fuest, President of the Ifo economic institute.
Persons: Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, Christian Lindner, Clemens Fuest Organizations: Social Democrats, Greens, Free Democrats Locations: Germany
Deep structural problems mean Europe is bound to trail most other big economic areas for years to come. The labour market remains tight and the world economy is rebounding, so external demand is also likely to be healthier. Fearing it will be difficult to hire in future, firms are now hanging onto workers, creating even more labour market tightness, potentially fuelling wage growth and weakening productivity. The potential growth rate for Europe's largest economy is now below 1%. European Union governments are meanwhile struggling to reach consensus on bigger questions that will help shape the future.
Persons: Philip Lane, Erik Nielsen, Eric Gaillard, Europe's, There's, Lane, Reinhard Cluse, Mark John, Catherine Evans Organizations: Central Bank's, REUTERS, European Commission, UBS, European Union, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Europe, Nice, France, United States, Germany
The 2023 Ford F-150 Lightning Platinum. The 2023 Ford F-150 Lightning Platinum. The 2023 Ford F-150 Lightning Platinum. The 2023 Ford F-150 Lightning Platinum. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe 2023 Ford F-150 Lightning Platinum.
Persons: , I've, Ford, Tim Levin, It's, Cruise, spry, Dan Barbossa, Alexander Edwards, Barbossa Organizations: Ford, Service, New, Honda, Strategic Locations: New York City, New York, legroom, Berkeley , California
The latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) figures show that speculators, especially leveraged funds, ramped up their short Treasuries positions in the week ending Oct. 31, most notably at the short end of the curve. That is significantly larger than the peak combined net short position from 2019 of just over 4 million contracts, boosted by fresh record short positions in the two- and five-year space. In October leveraged funds increased their net short position in two-year futures by 242,000 contracts to 1.6 million contracts, and by 193,000 contracts in five-year futures to 1.93 million. They only grew their net short position in 10-year futures by 10,000 contracts, however. But funds play Treasuries futures for other reasons, like relative value trades, and this year, the basis trade.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Javier Corominas, Treasuries, Jerome Powell, Jamie McGeever, Miral Fahmy, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Futures Trading Commission, Regulators, Reuters, Oxford Economics, Treasury, Citi's, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, Citi's U.S
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