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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with NatWest's Michelle Girard and Bleakley's Peter BoockvarMichelle Girard, head of U.S. at NatWest Markets, and Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Financial Group, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the pace of job hiring in the U.S., Fed action and wages.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFriday's strong jobs number pushes back timing of potential recession, says Michelle GirardMichelle Girard, head of U.S. at NatWest Markets, and Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Financial Group, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the pace of job hiring in the U.S., Fed action and wages.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect a bull market in oil throughout 2023, says Goldman Sachs' Elizabeth BurtonCIO of Bleakley Financial Group Peter Boockvar and Elizabeth Burton, client investment strategist with Goldman Sachs Asset Management, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the commodities market as a safe-haven investment, winners and losers of the China reopening story, and strategic allocation of portfolios.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed rate hike prospects are reliant on non-farm payrolls, says Morgan Stanley's Seth CarpenterSeth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley chief global economist, and Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss Europe's recent rate hike, market prospects for Wednesday's Federal Reserve announcement, and more.
"He's going to do that by still saying the Fed's going to stay tight for a while. The Fed's rate hike Wednesday would be the eighth since last March. That is just a half percentage point away from the Fed's estimated end point, or terminal rate range of 5% to 5.25%. In the futures market, fed funds futures continued to price a terminal rate of less than 5%. "I think he's going to be hawkish relative to market pricing," said Jim Caron, head of macro strategies for global fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
But as the Fed has continued to ratchet up interest rates, good economic news has again become good news to the market. But market participants shouldn't be too optimistic that a true bottom to the bear market is in, according to Peter Boockvar. "The third phase of the bear market is everyone throws in the towel, and no one wants to own a stock again," he told Wealthion. Bear markets end with outright disgust." Goldman Sach's David Kostin, who is more bullish than Wilson in the near-term, assuming a recession doesn't play out, also thinks earnings expectations are too high.
The slight decline in consumer prices in December will not change the path for the Federal Reserve, as it meets to raise rates Jan. 31 and Feb. 1. CPI fell by 0.01%, as expected by economists, and was up 6.5% from a year ago. Stock futures were higher after the report while Treasury yields fell. Swonk and other economists expect the Fed to raise rates by a half percentage point on Feb. 1. The futures market, however, has been pricing in a quarter point hike.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEarnings season will derail year's early risk-on rally, Peter Boockvar warnsBleakley Financial Group CIO Peter Boockvar on what the latest inflation read means for the market. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami.
They also point to weaker-than-expected wage growth in December's jobs report, as well as other data that reflects lower inflation expectations. Inflation is rolling over, and the Fed is almost done raising interest rates," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. A basis point equals 0.01 of a percentage point. Rental market data shows a slowing in rates, but the CPI has not yet reflected it. "Everyone is familiar with the lag that it takes for the data to show up in the CPI," Tilley added.
While some economists anticipate a half point hike after that meeting, traders in the futures market put greater odds on a smaller, 25 basis point hike. A basis point equals 0.01 of a percentage point. "It's pricing 100% chance of a 25 basis point hike, and a 30% chance for an additional 25. "The market is still expecting the Fed to go another 60, almost 70 basis points," he said. Boockvar said the end point for the Fed matters more than if it raises by 25 basis points or 50 when it next meets.
2023 is arriving with plenty of uncertainty, as recession prospects, continued inflation concerns, and the potential for a consumer spending pullback are all clouding forecasts. But corporate capital spending looks to continue to forge ahead, according to the results of the recent CNBC CFO Council Q4 survey. More than one-third of respondents said that they expect their company's capital spending to increase over the next 12 months, while 39% said their capital spending will stay about the same as last year. Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group, said at the Summit that he views corporate capital spending going forward as "bifurcated." Roughly 65% of CFOs responding to the survey said they think inflation has already peaked, while more than 80% are already forecasting a recession for 2023.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWall Street should get used to higher interest rates for longer, says Bleakley's Peter BoockvarPeter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, and Gunjan Banerji, Wall Street Journal live markets coverage lead writer, join CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to weigh in on the Bank of Japan's bond yield shift and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHigher yields in Japan could cause them to leave the market, says Michelle Caruso-CabreraCNBC contributor Michelle Caruso-Cabrera and Bleakely's Peter Boockvar, join 'The Exchange' to discuss Bank of Japan shocking the markets with bond yield shift.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Bleakley's Boockvar and Zoe Financial's Garcia-AmayaPeter Boockvar, Bleakly Financial Group CIO and Andres Garcia-Amaya, Zoe Financial CEO, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the Fed rate hikes and how investors should position their portfolio's.
Here's how the Federal Reserve confused the markets
  + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +6 min
Markets had flip flopped Wednesday afternoon, after the Federal Reserve released its policy statement and new interest rate and economic forecasts. Swonk noted there is agreement among Fed officials to drive rates higher, and most officials forecast an end point for rates above 5% in 2023. Fed funds futures Thursday showed a high rate of 4.89% by next May, still below the Fed's target. Every month that goes by means there's somebody's debt that matures that's going to be needed to be refinanced at a higher rate." With the economy weakening, I think the inflation rate is going to fall faster than most economists do."
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRates are going to stay higher for longer, says Bleakley Financial Group's Peter BoockvarPeter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO, and Andres Garcia-Amaya, Zoe Financial CEO, join 'The Exchange' to discuss yesterday's 50 bps Fed rate hike and how investors should position their portfolios heading into the new year.
Goldilocks and the Federal Reserve
  + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldilocks and the Federal ReserveToo much? The Fed's fight against inflation has drawn criticism from all sides. Some Fed-watching economists think the central bank will go too far in its quantitative tightening and plunge the US economy into a recession. Others think the Fed hasn't raised rates enough to bring inflation under control and worry it will stop hiking too early. CNBC's Steve Liesman moderates a conversation with Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group Chief Investment Officer, and Diane Swonk, KPMG Chief Economist, at the 2022 CNBC CFO Council Summit on November 30, 2022.
Why the Fed may finally loosen its grip
  + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
The Fed should be pleased that its aggressive rate hikes in the past few months are having their desired effect, and they can ease up a bit. After four giant three-quarter-point hikes in a row, all signs point to Fed Chair Jay Powell announcing a half-point bump later this month. BIG PICTUREIt’s taken most of the year, but the economy appears to have made it over the mountain of inflation and aggressive rate hikes, according to Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. But while 200,000 is nothing to sniff at, it’s still not soft enough for the Fed to pause its rate hikes. However, markets may cheer the fact that it’s low enough for the Fed to hike at a less aggressive pace than we’ve seen in recent months.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe market hasn't priced in a recession yet, says Bleakley's Peter BoockvarPeter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the holiday boosted market rally and his outlook for a recession.
But messaging from Fed officials this week has brought Wall Street back down to earth. Tech layoffs don’t mean impending recessionA series of high-profile layoffs have rattled Big Tech this month. The series of high-profile layoff announcements prompted fears that the labor market was weakening and that a recession could be around the corner. Those fears aren’t unwarranted: The Federal Reserve is actively working to slow economic growth and tighten financial conditions to rebalance the white-hot labor market. “The main problem in the labor market is still that labor demand is too strong, not too weak,” they concluded.
Home prices could tumble 20% in some of the hottest US markets, top investor Peter Boockvar said. He cited the surge in prices during the pandemic, and soaring mortgage rates pricing out buyers. The Bleakley Advisory boss warned a housing slump could hit consumer spending and the wider economy. "It's an extraordinary rise, and now you have 7% mortgage rates, which are 15-year highs," he said. Paul Krugman, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, has also predicted a housing slump.
20% housing correction is coming, says Peter Boockvar
  + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Melissa Lee | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email20% housing correction is coming, says Peter BoockvarBleakley Advisors' Peter Boockvar agrees with the Dallas Fed's warning about the state of the housing market and warns that a 20 percent correction is coming. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Karen Finerman, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami and Julie Biel.
This week, bond yields also came off their highs and were sharply lower, paving the way for gains in tech and growth shares. They include Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, New York Fed President John Williams and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari to name a few. Hogan said that group includes Bullard, Brainard and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Many strategists are calling the move higher a bear market rally, and some expect it will fizzle in December while others say it could continue into the new year. Friday Earnings: JD.com, Foot Locker, Buckle 8:40 a.m. Boston Fed President Susan Collins 10:00 a.m.
By 2025 or 2026, the United States may hit a bleak milestone: Federal interest payments could exceed the country’s entire defense budget, according to Moody’s Analytics. The Fed kept interest rates very low to stimulate growth (and encourage inflation) and investors around the world clamored to buy US debt. But White of Moody’s notes that gross interest payments include interest the government pays to itself and said net interest is the more relevant category to watch here. In a best-case scenario, the United States grows its way out of the debt mess, with the economy expanding more rapidly than interest payments. With interest rates going up, the sovereign bond bubble is unwinding,” Boockvar said.
This earnings season's tech wreck could continue to pressure the Nasdaq Composite, while other sectors may help broader indices deflect some of the pain. Amazon 's stock was hammered after the company missed estimates and gave a disappointing sales forecast for the current quarter . The two were members of FANG, a group of four favorite stocks that joined other Big Tech in carrying the market to highs before the bear market. Apple's report has been much anticipated by investors, since it is 7% of the S & P 500. "A favorable reaction could lift tech off its lows and help extend the relief rally in the S & P. A gap down would do the opposite."
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