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AdvertisementWe're not in a recessionTo determine whether the economy is in recession, it helps to first define the term. Sure, the yearlong payrolls were adjusted down, but the story has largely been the same: This is a cooling but not collapsing labor market. Despite the 50-basis-point interest-rate cut by Chairman Jerome Powell and the rest of the Fed, there's evidence of additional slowing in the labor market. Since the rate cut, I've grown more confident that it will act in the face of weaker employment data. If the labor market deteriorates and the unemployment rate increases, we ought not to rule out another 50-basis-point move.
Persons: We're, , Jerome Powell, there's, Powell, Stocks Organizations: Federal, National Bureau of Economic Research, Social Security, Conference Locations: America
“Buying gold has never been easier and more accessible.”While gold, typically invested in as a hedge against inflation, has shined this year, there are plenty of things to know before investors join the gold rush. How do you actually go about buying gold? Another consideration when buying gold in the retail market is how the sticker price of the bullion compares to the spot price of gold. But Cavatoni advises having a “round-trip mentality” when purchasing physical gold, emphasizing the importance of the selling stage as much as the purchase process. On the other hand, gold-backed ETFs free consumers from the considerations that need to be made when purchasing physical gold.
Persons: , Joseph Cavatoni, , Cavatoni, “ It’s, ” Cavatoni, prudently Organizations: CNN, Costco, World Gold, of Labor Statistics Locations: China, India, Turkey
And how should investors be thinking about future equity returns as the bull market enters its third year riding stellar multi-year performance and facing demanding valuations? So, expansionary policies that would quicken the economy's metabolism and produce more inflation was exactly what the market craved then – but now? Right now, the S & P 500 is up 42% from 18 months ago and fetches 22-times expected earnings. No reliable augurs of a coming bear market are in evidence: S & P up 10 of 11 months, making a new high in September, credit spreads resolutely narrow, all point to an upside bias over a span of months, at least. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD Which leaves the question of just how much upside, if any, a bull should reasonably expect from here.
Persons: Warren Pies, Pat Tschosik, Ned Davis, Donald Trump, payrolls, Harris, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, 3Fourteen Research, Trump, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Dow, Leuthold, quicken, Wall Locations: U.S, China, Wells
BEIJING — China's parliament will hold a highly anticipated meeting Nov. 4 to 8, state media said Friday, according to a CNBC translation. Investors have been awaiting news of the gathering of the standing committee of the National People's Congress, which is expected to announce details on any fiscal stimulus. Last year, the committee's meeting in late October oversaw a rare increase in China's fiscal deficit to 3.8%, from 3%, which was subsequently reported by state media. He pointed out that the last month of Chinese stimulus measures have all underscored the need for more fiscal support. Analysts have tempered expectations that large-scale fiscal stimulus would directly pillar consumption, instead noting how struggling local governments would likely get support first.
Persons: Bruce Pang, Finance Lan Fo'an, Xi Jinping, Pang Organizations: BEIJING —, CNBC, National People's Congress, China's, Finance, People's Bank of Locations: Beijing, BEIJING, China, JLL, People's Bank of China
The U.S. dollar traded close to a three-month high against major peers on Thursday, underpinned by expectations for a slower pace interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and growing bets of a possible second Donald Trump presidency. The U.S. dollar traded close to a three-month high against major peers on Thursday, underpinned by expectations for a slower pace interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and growing bets of a possible second Donald Trump presidency. This week, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said he would prefer to "avoid outsized moves", and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker backed "a slow, methodical approach" to further easing. The dollar has now "punched through key technical resistance levels" against the yen, "opening the door for higher levels", Catril said. Although opinion polls indicate a neck-and-neck race with Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, cryptocurrency-prediction exchange Polymarket has seen a sharp rise in bets for a Trump win.
Persons: Donald Trump, Jeffrey Schmid, Patrick Harker, Rodrigo Catril, Catril, Trump, Kamala Harris, Christine Lagarde, Mario Centeno Organizations: U.S ., Federal Reserve, Kansas, Philadelphia Fed, Treasury, National Australia Bank, UST, Republican, Democratic, Trump, of, Traders, European Central Bank, Wednesday Locations: Japan, Sunday's
(This is a wrap-up of the key money moving discussions on CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange" exclusive for PRO subscribers. Plus, they are reacting to Tesla earnings and watching an interesting bond opportunity outside of Treasuries. Worldwide Exchange pick: Starbucks Earlier this week, Starbucks (SBUX) pulled its profit outlook and said sales last quarter tumbled in a release of preliminary results. Opportunity in high yield bonds Joanna Gallegos of BondBloxx said while Treasury yields are higher since the Federal Reserve rate cut in September, she is seeing the best opportunity in high yield bonds. She recommended high yield bond ETFs: BondBloxx CCC Rated USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (XCCC) with a yield above 10% and the BondBloxx BB Rated USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (XBB) with a yield above 6%.
Persons: Tesla, George Gianarikas, Cannaccord Genuity, Matt Powers, Brian Niccol, Joanna Gallegos, BondBloxx, Gallegos Organizations: PRO, Worldwide, Starbucks, Powers Advisory, Federal Locations: Treasuries
This, despite the fact that younger investors were more optimistic about the economy, their incomes, their living situations, and their investments. Millennial investors have been deeply scarred by two life-changing crises in their young lives. But if you look at hard numbers from the Federal Reserve about what millennial investors actually own, you can see that this stereotype is misguided. When you compare millennials' cash levels with Gen X's cash levels at the same age, though, the risk aversion becomes clear. But when it comes to younger investors, I think the scars run deeper than worries about a coming downturn.
Persons: Cash, it's, millennials, Gen Xers, boomers, There's, would've, you'd Organizations: Bank of, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, Occupy, Dow, Netflix Locations: eToro, United States, YOLO
Invest in an oven thermometerKastel told BI that an oven thermometer is one of his must-have kitchen tools. "If you can master breaking down and roasting a chicken, you can successfully roast a turkey," he told BI. Vezzani Photography/ShutterstockIf you're baking something that involves dough, pay attention to its consistency as you add water or other liquids. AdvertisementBloom told BI that you can use an egg to reduce the odds of this happening. Advertisement"For the best-looking pie slice, you need to let your pie cool completely before slicing," she told BI.
Persons: , Phil Kastel, Kastel, Chris Shepherd, James Beard, Shepherd, Teresa Shurilla, Shurilla, Rebecca Bloom, Piedaho, shouldn't, Bloom, Charles Brutlag, Read Organizations: Service, Invest, James, James Beard Foundation, University of Hawai'i Maui College Culinary Arts Locations: LA
The S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday to end a three-day losing streak. The index was fueled by a surge in Tesla's stock, which closed 22% higher after a strong earnings beat. AdvertisementUS stocks closed mixed Thursday, though the S&P 500 was able to push higher after three days of losses. Its operating profit also exceeded expectations, up 54% from a year ago to $2.7 billion, while analysts expected $2.0 billion. Some analysts, though, remain cautious that the strong earnings will be sustainable in future quarters.
Persons: , Tesla Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, IBM, UBS, JPMorgan
Below, two gold experts share four ways investors can add gold to their portfolios. AdvertisementIn general, physical gold is a less liquid way to own the asset and is quite costly. Synthetic gold ETFs don't hold physical gold, investing instead in gold derivatives such as futures and options. In Milling-Stanley's opinion, investing in mining stocks instead of directly investing in gold erodes some of the metal's portfolio protection, as mining stocks behave more in line with the general equity market. Royalties limit the holder's exposure to the risks associated with directly investing in mines, such as exploration, development, and regulatory compliance.
Persons: , Jeff Muhlenkamp, they'll, George Milling, Stanley, Muhlenkamp Organizations: Service, Costco, Muhlenkamp & Company, State Street Global Advisors, Trust, MiniShares, Mining, Eagle Mines, Newmont Mining Corp, Wheaton Precious Metals Locations: Franco, Nevada
A rise in tech stocks fueled the indexes higher after Tesla reported strong earnings. Jobless claims from last week fell unexpectedly to 227,000, a drop of 15,000 from the week before. AdvertisementUS stocks were mixed Thursday morning, as the market tried to break out of a three-day slump following this week's bond sell-off. Investors' exposure to the S&P 500 is the highest since mid-2023 in a signal that's previously preceded a 10% slump, Citi says. Apple stock tumbles after analyst says iPhone 16 orders cut by 10 million units, sees "no evidence" of AI boosting demand.
Persons: Tesla, Organizations: Dow, Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Treasury, Nasdaq, Investors, Citi, Apple
The S & P 500 suffered its first three-day decline since early September. Chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky noted a "decent probability" the broad market index could fall as much as 5% to roughly 5,500 in coming weeks. The S & P 500 has pulled back this week from record highs reached just Oct. 17. Krinsky pointed to the recent move higher in Treasury yields as the key catalyst. Elsewhere on Wall Street this morning, JPMorgan reiterated Live Nation with an overweight rating and raised a $137 price target, implying upside of more than 19%.
Persons: BTIG, Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, Tesla Organizations: UPS, JPMorgan
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell modestly, under pressure from declines in Club and Dow stock Honeywell following a mixed quarter and a disappointing sales outlook. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Bonds, Jeff Marks, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Fed, Nasdaq, Lam, Nvidia, Dow Jones, Dow, Honeywell, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Central
Where Vanguard sees opportunity to earn income right now
  + stars: | 2024-10-24 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
With the Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle now underway, income investors may want to take a closer look at their portfolios. In this environment, Vanguard likes higher-quality, fixed-income assets. However, with high yield credit, Vanguard is focusing on bottom-up security selection due to the dispersion among issuers. CCC-rated bonds gained 12.5% year to date, as of Sept 30, versus the 4.3% return in AA credit, according to Vanguard. Individual investors can get access to corporate credit through mutual funds or exchange-traded funds comprising investment-grade or high-yield bonds.
Persons: Sara Devereux, Devereux, Colleen Cunniffe, Cunniffe, outsized Organizations: Federal, Vanguard, Fed, Investor, Securities, Exchange Commission, Fund Locations: Utilities
Bond market investors are having trouble figuring out an economy that looks good from 30,000 feet, but less so closer to the ground. Whether it's payrolls, gross domestic product or retail sales, or a host of other measures, growth looks solid, at the very least. On Wall Street, the general view was of concern: The Beige Book "showed no material improvement in a generally bleak outlook," Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote. However, if growth deteriorates, as the Beige Book indicates it has, that likely would push the Fed towards more reductions. "Despite recent stronger-than-expected data on U.S. employment, retail sales, and consumer inflation, the Fed's latest Beige Book signals a still weakening economy."
Persons: it's, Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, Goldman, Andrew Hollenhorst, Kathy Bostjancic, Peter Boockvar, Jerome Powell, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Citigroup, Nationwide, Bleakley Financial, DataTrek
The Hater’s Guide to the 2024 World Series
  + stars: | 2024-10-23 | by ( Grant Brisbee | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +10 min
AdvertisementPlease note that this isn’t the same as the worst World Series matchup possible. In the actual 2024 World Series, there will be several future Hall of Famers playing, most of them in their absolute prime, doing unreal things to and with baseballs. It’s a very good World Series if you like to watch excellent players and displays of baseball ability. Been there, done thatThis World Series is a Simpsons episode from Season 43 where Homer gets a new job. But even though it has the potential to be the best World Series, it’s guaranteed to be the most annoying World Series possible.
Persons: it’s, I’m, Homer, It’s, Bobby DeNiro, Luke Hales, Fox, haven’t, They’re, they’ll, Craig Calcaterra smartly, Yogi Berra’s, Berra, Mick, Billy Martin didn’t, , that’s, There’s, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gerrit Cole, Mookie Betts, Barry Bonds, Greg Maddux, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Michael King, Shohei Ohtani, Sean Reilly, Orlando Ramirez, Mary DeCicco, Katelyn Mulcahy, Carmen Mandato Organizations: New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies, of Famers, Yankees, Dodgers, Alabama, Auburn, Fox, Cleveland Guardians, Milwaukee Brewers, Brewers, 49ers, Fenway Sports Group Holdings, Liverpool, RFK Racing, Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals, of Fame, San Diego Padres, Padres, Dodger, Athletic, Images, Getty Locations: It’s, Los Angeles
The central bank has been aiming to keep the long-run inflation rate at this level to maintain stable prices and a healthy economy. "There is now a higher base inflation rate than there was before COVID for a number of reasons." Related storiesBut there are other factors contributing to an increased long-term inflation rate, many of which Blitz tracked even before the pandemic. AdvertisementChanging demographics in the workplace are also driving increasing debt and higher long-term inflation, according to Blitz. In Blitz's perspective, all of these factors add up to an inflation rate exceeding 2% going forward.
Persons: isn't, Steven Blitz, , Mark Higgins, Blitz, Bonds Organizations: Service, Fed, stoke, Blitz, Technology, iShares Semiconductor, Index
However, real estate — specifically the commercial side — may be poised to take off. "This is absolutely the largest generational opportunity to invest in real estate in a long time," Issar said at the conference. "This is a time for investors to step in, move into attractive pricing, move into asset classes like non-core real estate." Investors can bet on a commercial real estate rebound by working with JPMAM's team, or on their own through publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs). "That is the modernization of the new direct real estate that is going to be really attractive for investors in the future."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs, they're, That's, David Kelly, what's, JPMAM, Kelly, David Lebovitz, Monica Issar, Issar Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management, Service, Asset Management, Management, JPMorgan Private
And if the worst were to happen and Bridger defaulted on the debt, Gallatin County wouldn’t be on the hook. The second item that wasn’t publicly discussed involved collateral damage to Gallatin County if Bridger’s bonds, known as conduits, went bad. Neither did former commissioner Skinner, whom NBC News called to talk about his vote on the Bridger bond. “Gallatin County should expect that Bridger will not cover any of the costs to unwind this transaction,” he said. At the 2020 meeting about the bond issue, Sean Bowen, a deputy county attorney, was asked whether the county was comfortable approving it.
Persons: Tim Sheehy, Bridger, Gallatin, , Joe Skinner, Sheehy vies, Sheehy, Donald Trump, Democratic Sen, Jon Tester, Blackstone, Louise Johns, Justin Marlowe, ” Marlowe, ” Sheehy, didn’t, Sam Davis, Bridger’s, Nathan Bilyeu, wasn’t, Marlowe, , ’ ”, , Zach Brown, ” Brown, Bilyeu, Skinner, Brown, it’s, Sean Bowen, Bowen, hadn’t Organizations: Bridger Aerospace Group, Navy SEAL, U.S . Senate, Democratic, New, Blackstone Group, Republican, Bridger Aerospace, Bloomberg, Getty, University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, Municipal Finance, National Interagency Fire Center, Pilatus, Bridger, wasn’t, University of Chicago, Poor’s, NBC Locations: Montana, it’s, Gallatin County, Bozeman, U.S, Washington, Gallatin, New York City, Bridger, Mont, Helena, Chicago, Bolingbrook,
Christopher Grigat | Moment | Getty ImagesInvestors can generally reduce their tax losses in a portfolio by using exchange-traded funds over mutual funds, experts said. "You'll have tax efficiency that a standard mutual fund is not going to be able to achieve, hands down," he said. The same concept applies within a mutual fund: Mutual fund managers generate capital gains when they sell holdings within the fund. Large-cap and small-cap "core" stocks also "benefit considerably," with about 85% to 90% of their returns coming from capital gains, Armour said. However, there are instances in which passively managed funds can trade often, too, such as with so-called strategic beta funds, Armour said.
Persons: Christopher Grigat, Bryan Armour, Charlie Fitzgerald III, Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo, Armour, It's, Morningstar, Fitzgerald, Bonds Organizations: North America, Mutual, Taxpayers, CNBC Locations: Orlando , Florida, U.S
Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones is raising alarms about the U.S. government's current fiscal deficit and the increased spending promised by both presidential candidates, saying the bond market may force the government's hand after the election in addressing it. "We are going to be broke really quickly unless we get serious about dealing with our spending issues," Jones told CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin on Tuesday. The founder and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment said he was worried that government spending could cause a big sell-off in the bond market, spiking interest rates. He said he plans to not own fixed income and will be betting against the longer-dated part of the bond market. Jones founded his hedge fund more than four decades ago and rose to prominence by correctly predicting the stock market crash of 1987.
Persons: Paul Tudor Jones, Jones, CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, Kamala Harris Organizations: Tudor Investment, Treasury Department, Wall Street, Trump Locations: United States
Bonds have sold off as traders reassess the path of Fed Reserve rate cuts. AdvertisementThe bond market is in sell-off mode as traders reassess the path of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. That would be a big surprise to traders, with the market pricing in a 90% chance of a 25-basis point interest rate cut from the Fed next month. AdvertisementFed officials, for their part, have indicated they're likely to move cautiously, though more rate cuts are still their base case. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she expects interest rates will fall "gradually," and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid endorsed a "cautious and gradual" approach to cutting interest rates.
Persons: Bonds, , Donald Trump, Torsten Sløk, Sløk, Mary Daly, Neel Kashkari, Lorie Logan, Jeff Schmid, Trump Organizations: Trump, Service, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, Bloomberg, Bond, Treasury Bond ETF, Federal, Market, San Francisco Fed, Minneapolis, Dallas, Kansas City, House Locations: Atlanta
Goldman Sachs forecasts muted S&P 500 gains, with a 3% annual return over 10 years. Diversification and equal-weighted S&P 500 exposure may offer better long-term returns. The bank's most bearish scenario would see the S&P 500 decline by an annual 1%, while its more positive calls for a gain of 7%. Goldman SachsAdding an exchange-traded fund that tracks the equal-weighted S&P 500 could be one way to go about it. AdvertisementFurthermore, investors should consider a more mixed asset portfolio of stocks and bonds without tilting toward one more than the other.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , David Kostin, Goldman, There's, Christian Mueller Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Treasury
Municipal bonds not only offer solid, tax-free income — they should also see some capital appreciation later this year, according to UBS. Consumers are still spending and the combination of job growth, higher wages and slowing inflation should continue to push households' real disposable income higher, he added. Further, the longer end of the muni bond yield curve is also starting to look attractive, he said. Investors hoping to take a diversified approach to municipal bonds may want to consider an exchange-traded fund. Schwab's Municipal Bond ETF (SCMB) , which has an expense ratio of 0.03% and a 30-day SEC yield of 3.25%.
Persons: Sudip Mukherjee, Mukherjee, Bonds Organizations: UBS, muni, Index Fund, SEC, Schwab's Municipal Bond ETF
On the earnings front, Tesla, UPS, and Boeing will report later in the week. AdvertisementUS stocks headed for their second losing session in a row, with major indexes slumping Tuesday morning amid a rise in bond yields. The key bond yield jumped above 4.2% for the first time since July. Boeing is also due to report on Wednesday, while UPS will report results on Thursday. Here's where US indexes stood at the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:Here's what else happened today:AdvertisementIn commodities, bonds, and crypto:
Persons: Stocks, , Patrick Harker, Tesla Organizations: UPS, Boeing, Service, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, Philadelphia Fed Locations: Here's
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