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OTTAWA, March 8 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada on Wednesday left its key overnight rate on hold at 4.50%, as expected, becoming the first major central bank to suspend its monetary tightening campaign in the face of an anticipated easing of high inflation. In its statement, the BoC reiterated that it was "prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target." The majority of the 32 economists surveyed by Reuters last week said the central bank would likely keep rates on hold through the end of this year, and all of them forecast it would stay on hold on Wednesday. Before the announcement, money markets had expected the policy rate to remain unchanged but were pricing in another tightening by September. The central bank said core inflation measures and short-term inflation expectations still needed to fall in order to return inflation to target.
[1/2] Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem holds a news conference at the Bank of Canada, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Ottawa, Canada, June 22, 2020. "We expect the Bank of Canada to be the first G10 central bank to hold rates," said Jay Zhao-Murray, a forex analyst at Monex Canada. Money markets expect the policy rate to be left on hold on Wednesday but are pricing in another tightening by September. "Look for the Bank of Canada to point to slowing GDP growth and inflation when justifying its decision to maintain the level of rates," said Royce Mendes and Tiago Figueiredo, Desjardins economists, in a note. "The central bank is unlikely to do much to endorse the view that further rate hikes will be necessary," they said.
Powell pushes dollar to three-month high
  + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
SINGAPORE, March 8 (Reuters) - The dollar was riding high on Wednesday, flung to three-month peaks when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell surprised investors by warning that interest rates might need to go up faster and higher than expected to rein in inflation. Overnight it had shot more than 1.2% higher on the euro, its biggest one-day move in five months. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, jumped 1.3% overnight to a three-month peak of 105.65. The blockbuster week of central bank meetings and speakers rolls on later in the day, with the Bank of Canada setting policy and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaking. "If they don't hike, the Canadian dollar will likely fall into a bucket of currencies where the central bank is unwilling to keep up with the Fed."
SummarySummary Companies TC Energy falls after U.S. regulator seeks corrective actionsTSX rises 0.5%March 8 (Reuters) - Canada's main stock index edged higher on Wednesday, helped by gains in commodity-linked stocks and the banking sector after the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept interest rates on hold as expected. ET (1515 GMT), the Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) was up 99.07 points, or 0.49%, at 20,374.61. The energy sector (.SPTTEN) gained 1.1%, while materials (.GSPTTMT) rose 1.5%. Miners, energy firms and financial stocks comprise nearly 60% of the TSX index. Among stocks, TC Energy (TRP.TO) fell 0.2% as the U.S. pipeline regulator said the oil services provider would be required to reduce operating pressure on its Keystone pipeline that spilled oil in rural Kansas in December.
[1/4] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., February 27, 2023. All three major U.S. stock indexes were modestly higher, although well off session highs, Treasury yields reversed an earlier dip and the dollar pared its losses in afternoon trading. Emerging market stocks rose 0.57%. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields were last nominally higher on the day, bouncing back from initial decline. The dollar lost ground against a basket of world currencies ahead of Powell's testimony and the jobs data.
[1/4] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, March 3, 2023. All three major U.S. stock indexes gained ground on Monday, appearing to extend last week's rally, with lower Treasury yields boosting interest rate-sensitive megacap stocks. European shares reversed earlier gains and were last essentially unchanged after modest China growth estimates suggested a possible dampening of demand for European goods. Emerging market stocks rose 0.64%. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields continued to ease as dampening demand supported hopes that the Fed is approaching the end of its rate-hike phase.
Asia stocks rally, bonds tense for U.S. rate tests
  + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Japan's Nikkei (.N225) climbed 1.0% to a three-month top, while South Korean stocks (.KS11) added 0.6% helped by a softer reading on inflation. S&P 500 futures dipped 0.1% and Nasdaq futures 0.2%, after rallying on Friday as bond yields eased back a little. Futures imply a 72% chance the Fed will go by 25 basis points at its meeting on March 22. The BOJ jolted markets in December when it unexpectedly widened the allowed trading band for 10-year bond yields to between -50 and +50 basis points. Friday's pullback in bond yields helped gold recover some ground and it was trading at $1,855 an ounce .
All 32 economists polled Feb. 24 to March 3 expect the BoC to hold its overnight rate at 4.50% on March 8. A majority forecast the BoC to keep it there for the rest of 2023, despite several more rate hikes expected from the U.S. Federal Reserve. In the meantime, Canada inflation data are headed in the right direction. "Well, the interesting thing could be in the tone of the statement," said Brown, who expects a hawkish tone. "The Federal Reserve's continued rate hikes will eventually make their way into Canadian inflation through exchange rates...so that will certainly push the Bank of Canada to do more," said Shelly Kaushik, an economist at BMO Capital Markets.
TORONTO, Feb 28 (Reuters) - The Canadian economy recorded no growth in the final three months of 2022, massively underperforming expectations, though economic activity likely rebounded with a 0.3% increase in January, Statistics Canada data showed on Tuesday. "Even with the January rebound, however, Q4 and Q1 combined seem likely to average slightly below the Bank of Canada's prior forecasts which supports the current pause in terms of interest rates." It'll be a short and sweet statement saying that they're still on a conditional hold and evaluating the lagging effects. They'll want to see a whole lot more data before they're convinced that they're either done and/or that they're going to act again." ROBERT BOTH, MACRO STRATEGIST, TD SECURITIES"It is a pretty large miss on Q4.
Central banks hike rates again, but a pause is coming
  + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
REUTERS/Joshua RobertsLONDON, Feb 2 (Reuters) - Major central banks are steadily moving closer to a pause in their aggressive interest rate hiking campaigns. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England raised rates on Thursday, but markets suspect a peak is nearing. Overall, 10 big developed economies have raised rates by a combined 2,965 basis points in this cycle to date, with Japan the holdout dove. Canada's central bank has raised its policy rate at a record pace of 425 basis points in 10 months. The central bank raised its forecast for its peak interest rate to 5.5%, up from a previous forecast of 4.1%.
This meant the U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell as low as 101.5, its lowest since the end of May. Markets expect policymakers at the Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB), which also meet next week, to deliver 50 bps rate hikes. The Canadian dollar traded at 1.3387 per U.S. dollar, after the Bank of Canada on Wednesday raised its key interest rate to 4.5% but became the first major central bank fighting global inflation to say it would likely hold off on further increases for now. He said the pullback in Fed rate hike expectations following the BoC’s policy decision had triggered a US dollar sell-off alongside Canadian dollar weakness, which "highlights that the US dollar remains vulnerable to a further dovish repricing of Fed rate hike expectations." Reporting by Rae Wee and Alun John; Editing by Bradley Perrett and Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Morning bid: Parsing the peak, sidestepping a slump
  + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
"We are turning the corner on inflation," BoC Governor Tiff Macklem told reporters, while dismissing any thought of policy easing for now. Just how bad the underlying economy gets before the central banks are done is the other burning question. On the activity side, the prospect of reviving growth in China and the euro zone certainly changes the international picture. In Europe, STMicroelectronics jumped 8% after the chipmaker reported a sales beat and Finnish telecom equipment maker Nokia jumped 5% after its own beat. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
[1/2] A Canadian dollar coin, commonly known as the "Loonie", is pictured in this illustration picture taken in Toronto January 23, 2015. This week's meeting will be significant as the BoC will offer minutes from the policy-setting session for the first time. Money markets see a roughly 70% chance of a 25-basis-point move and expect the policy rate to peak at 4.50%. Economists expect the BoC to leave the door open to further tightening should upcoming data show price pressures persisting and push back against market expectations for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. Better to err on the side of too much tightening with a 25-basis-point hike."
Morning bid: Cloudy outlook
  + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
And deep in the weeds of the fourth-quarter corporate earnings season, Microsoft's (MSFT.O) overnight rollercoaster probably defines the uncertainty. Microsoft stock surged almost 5% in after-hours trading on Tuesday after its bottom line beat the Street consensus. The mixed earnings picture dampened early week enthusiasm surrounding tech stocks and chipmakers. The chance it may force the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift interest rates again boosted the Aussie dollar. Key developments that may provide direction to U.S. markets later on Wednesday:* Bank of Canada policy decision.
Jan 24 (Reuters) - Canada's main stock index fell on Tuesday, as energy and consumer discretionary stocks dragged the index lower ahead of the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision on Wednesday, while data showed U.S. business activity contracted. ET (1522 GMT), the Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) was down 68.95 points, or 0.33%, at 20,562.63. Commodity-linked stocks took a dive, with both energy (.SPTTEN) and materials (.GSPTTMT) down 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively, as commodity prices slipped. Looking ahead, another interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada (BoC) is looming large, with traders leaning towards a 25-basis-point hike on Wednesday. The BoC had hiked its overnight lending rate all through 2022, with the current rate sitting at an over 16-year high.
Annual inflation shot to 8.1% in June, the highest in 39 years and four times the Bank of Canada's 2% target. On the recommendation of the International Monetary Fund, the BoC in September said it would release minutes to improve transparency,Other central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank already provide some form of record of their meetings. "The big enemy for policymakers and investors is groupthink," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex LLC. JOB'Other market-watchers say releasing minutes is more an exercise in public relations than an effort to boost transparency. Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReporting by Steve Scherer, additional reporting by Fergal Smith, editing by Deepa BabingtonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
BoC to raise rates by 25 bps to peak of 4.50% on Jan. 25
  + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Swathi Nair | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
A strong majority of 90% of economists, 26 of 29, expected a quarter-point rise on Jan. 25 to 4.50%, according to a Jan. 17-20 Reuters poll, in line with interest rate futures. The BoC has hiked rates by a cumulative 400 basis points since March 2022. "Rather than raise interest rates much further, the bigger risk to our policy rate forecasts is that the Bank will probably keep rates high for longer than we currently assume." The BoC is then expected to keep its overnight rate on hold at 4.50% for the remainder of the year, poll medians showed. That is in line with a recent BoC survey which showed most firms now think a recession is likely.
Canada's consumer price index report for December, due on Tuesday, is expected to show headline inflation cooling to 6.3%, its lowest annual rate since last February, from 6.8% in November. If inflation expectations rise, it could push up wage demands, particularly in a tight labor market, leading to further price pressures. "One eye is on wage growth, which is strong but not too bad at the moment, but then this other idea (which is) on the price inflation for essentials that could keep wage demands high, as it affects inflation expectations." "If inflation slows and wage growth doesn't, then wages become more of a tailwind for inflation going forward. "What we really need to see in December is weaker price growth across the board."
REUTERS/Phil NobleJan 10 (Reuters) - New Zealand supplies of carbon dioxide (CO2), used to fizz drinks and in packaging and hospitals, are having to be rationed because of shortages following the closure of the country's only food-grade CO2 production facility. "We are working collaboratively with suppliers, customers and other industry stakeholders to manage the CO2 supply situation," it added. The rationing is the result of the shut down of a CO2 production facility on west coast of the North Island. To try to fill that gap, CO2 imports almost tripled last year, according to Statistics New Zealand data. ($1 = 1.5708 New Zealand dollars)Reporting by Lucy Craymer in Waipu, New Zealand; Editing by Lincoln FeastOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The loonie will edge 0.6% higher to 1.35 per U.S. dollar, or 74.07 U.S. cents, in three months, according to the median forecast of currency analysts. The Bank of Canada, along with the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks, has raised interest rates at a rapid pace to tackle soaring inflation. Another potential tailwind for the loonie would be the end of the U.S. dollar's in global currency markets since 2021. A "weaker dollar story" could emerge if the Fed moves to end quantitative tightening (QT), said Bipan Rai, global head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets. QT is a process central banks use to shrink the size of their balance sheets.
The economy gained a net 104,000 jobs in December, far exceeding analysts' forecasts, while the jobless rate decreased to 5% from 5.1% in November, Statistics Canada data showed. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast a net gain of 8,000 jobs and for the unemployment rate to edge up to 5.2%. Money markets now see a 75% chance of a 25-bp rate increase in January, up from roughly 60% before the data. Employment in the goods-producing sector rose by a net 22,200, mainly in construction. Employees in the private sector rose by 112,000 in December, the largest increase since February, while public sector and self-employed workers were both little changed, Statscan said.
Lessor BOC Aviation orders 40 Boeing 737 MAX planes
  + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
Dec 28 (Reuters) - Aircraft lessor BOC Aviation Ltd (2588.HK) said on Wednesday it had ordered 40 Boeing Co (BA.N) 737 MAX planes to be delivered in 2027 and 2028, in a year-end boost to the U.S. manufacturer's order book. The Singapore-based lessor said it also amended its existing purchase agreement with Boeing as part of the deal, resulting in it having 80 737 MAX jets on order in total, to be delivered from 2023 to 2028. Boeing's total aircraft orders net of cancellations for the year reached 571 in the 11 months ended November, while rival Airbus SE (AIR.PA) reported 825 net orders in the same period. Both manufacturers are expected to receive large orders soon from Air India, which is negotiating a major fleet renewal and expansion under new owner Tata Group that industry sources said could involve nearly 500 aircraft. Reporting by Jamie Freed in Sydney; Editing by Chris Reese and Christopher CushingOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Morning Bid: Questions after the storm
  + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. A day after the Bank of Japan's bombshell and things are looking a little steadier. Most Asian share markets and U.S. stock futures are up, and the Nikkei down only modestly. Analysts assume a formal shift will come after Japan's Spring wage talks and BOJ chief Kuroda's retirement in April. Analysts also suspect the BOJ shift meant the days of Japan desiring, or just accepting, a lower yen were over and the fallout in carry trades has been vicious.
Central banks ramp up rates again but the pace slows
  + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Central banks in Britain, Norway, Switzerland, the euro zone and the United States have all raised interest rates this week. The central bank raised its forecast for its peak interest rate to 5.5%, up from a previous forecast of 4.1%. Money markets moved after the statement to forecast UK interest rates will top out at around 4.5% in August. Markets anticipate an 80% chance of a 50 bps hike when the Riksbank meets next in February. But market players do not expect any significant change from the world's lone major central bank dove.
The central bank sets short-term interest rates but longer-term borrowing costs, such as for businesses and some mortgage rates, are determined by the bond market. Canadian bond yields, like U.S. bond yields, have tumbled since October as investors anticipate that the tightening cycle is nearing an end and the central bank is poised to shift to cutting rates next year. Bond yields, along with other measures, such as the strength of the stock market and the currency, help determine financial conditions, or the availability of funding in the economy. Since October, Canada's 5-year yield has tumbled nearly 100 basis points and the Toronto stock market (.GSPTSE) has rallied 11%. "Otherwise, we could be on an inflation and rates roller-coaster for years to come that is biased toward higher average inflation."
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