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ATLANTA — Democratic strategists are agonizing about headwinds in the closing stretch of the 2022 campaign, with some fearing the election will be worse for the party than polls indicate. Now comes the moment of truth: Can they pull off one final act of levitation in the sprint to Election Day? “I definitely think that the political gravity is starting to reinforce itself,” said Sean McElwee, executive director of the Democratic-affiliated polling firm Data For Progress. “Maybe they can stretch it to 6 or 7 [points], but I think somewhere gravity kicks in.”“There’s a tightening happening,” Taylor added. The recent NBC News poll found that Democrats led Republicans by 1 point on which party voters prefer to control Congress.

☆ A GOP operative said Trump campaigning in Georgia would be the 'worst thing that can happen' for Republicans like Herschel Walker, report says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Kelsey Vlamis | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A GOP operative told The Washington Post that Trump could distract from GOP messaging. "Trump coming down to Georgia is the worst thing that can happen for Republican candidates down here," the operative told the Post. "It immediately turns the focus from inflation and immigration to Donald Trump, and Donald Trump lost the last election here." The Georgia race, considered one of the tightest in the country, has been called a toss-up by some experts, while poll averaging site FiveThirtyEight gives Warnock a slight edge. Sources told the Post Trump may do several additional rallies before election day, including in Georgia, but only where he is wanted.

“I think it’s going to be significant,” Chuck Coughlin, an Arizona Republican pollster, said of the third-party impact on key Senate races. Angela McArdle, the chair of the Libertarian National Committee, said it’s not her party's job to protect Republican candidates who are alienating voters. "If Republicans fear that Libertarians are going to be spoilers, Republicans need to run more liberty-minded candidates," McArdle told NBC News. Much attention has been paid to the level of support third-party candidates can wrestle from the major party contenders in recent election cycles, particularly on the presidential level. "We have to wait to see the melt on these third-party candidates," he said.

☆ Arizona Senate Race Tightens in Final Stretch
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Eliza Collins | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The Senate race in Arizona, once seen as a likely Democrat hold, appears to have tightened amid broader signs of strength for Republicans nationwide as voters weigh issues such as inflation, abortion access and immigration policy. Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly is running for re-election this year after winning the seat in 2020. He was elected to fill out the remainder of the late Sen. John McCain ’s term and is now seeking a full term. He faces Republican Blake Masters, who worked closely with venture capitalist Peter Thiel and is backed by former President Donald Trump.

☆ Sen. Mark Kelly, one of the most vulnerable freshman Democrats, faces off against Blake Masters in Arizona for a seat that could decide control of the Senate
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Warren Rojas | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Sen. Mark Kelly is running against Republican Blake Masters in Arizona's high-profile Senate race. A Masters win could help Republicans win control of the currently 50-50 Senate. Arizona Senate candidatesKelly, a former NASA astronaut who is also married to retired Democratic congresswoman-turned-gun-control advocate Gabrielle Giffords, has jumped into a variety of issues during this first term in Congress. Masters is a first-time candidate vying to reinsert some red into the battleground state after voters handed control of the Senate delegation to Democrats Kelly (2020) and Kyrsten Sinema (2018). A Masters win would tip the balance of power to Republicans, ending the 50-50 split that's been in effect since January 2021.

☆ Ex-Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard to campaign for Trump-backed Kari Lake in Arizona
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Zoë Richards | Zoë Richards Is The Evening Politics Reporter For Nbc News. | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +1 min

Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard is scheduled Tuesday to campaign for Kari Lake, the Republican nominee for governor of Arizona, just days after she announced she was leaving the Democratic Party. Lake's campaign said Gabbard would introduce Lake at a GOP forum in Chandler. But she will now campaign for a Trump-endorsed candidate who has become a prominent election denier in Arizona. All three of the candidates scheduled to take the stage Tuesday have denied the results of the 2020 election. Doug Ducey and former Vice President Mike Pence, who both rebuffed former President Donald Trump's pressure to overturn the 2020 election results, backed Lake and Masters.

WisconsinDemocrats see Republican Sen. Ron Johnson as a vulnerable incumbent. Barnes has espoused progressive views in office, but his Senate campaign has focused more on pocketbook issues such as inflation and taxes. Vance appears locked in a tight Senate race against Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan, despite running in a red-leaning state that Trump won handily in 2020. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan's approval ratings have fallen, including among unaffiliated voters who make up a major chunk of the state's electorate. FloridaFormer Orlando police chief and Democratic Rep. Val Demings aims to unseat incumbent Republican Sen. Marco Rubio.

☆ Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly outraises GOP opponent Blake Masters going into final weeks of midterm campaign
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-15 | by ( Brian Schwartz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, running for re-election to the U.S. Senate in the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, appears in an undated handout photo obtained by Reuters on October 5, 2022. Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly outraised his opponent, Republican Blake Masters, in the third quarter, according to Federal Election Commission Records. Kelly's campaign went into October, weeks before the midterm elections, with almost six times the amount of cash on hand. Masters, who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump, brought in over $4.7 million over that same time period. Kelly's campaign went into October with over $13 million on hand while Masters had just above $2.8 million in his war chest.

“And I will accept the result if I don’t.”Arizona Republican nominee for governor Kari Lake sign a campaign poster for a supporter on Oct. 7 in Scottsdale. Mario Tama / Getty ImagesLake has seized on Hobbs’ refusal to debate and centered it during recent campaign appearances. Kristi Noem, a Republican, in Scottsdale last week, Lake again sharply criticized Hobbs for eschewing a statewide debate. The Kelly campaign told NBC News the senator does not have any imminent plans to campaign with Hobbs. Chuck Coughlin, an Arizona Republican pollster, said there are some “traditional Republican voters that are going, ‘No f---ing way, I’m not going there.

☆ Trump gave conflicting defenses about the Mar-a-Lago raid, claiming both that all the documents are 'mine,' and that some were planted
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( Tom Porter | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Former President Donald Trump addressed the FBI's Mar-a-Lago raid at an Arizona rally. Trump has baselessly sought to portray the raid as part of a plot against him. Scores of government records were recovered in the Mar-a-Lago raid, and Trump at the rally gave offered no argument for why they should be returned. Trump's lawyers have offered no evidence to back his claim that evidence was planted in the raid. Trump was campaigning Sunday for Blake Masters and Kari Lake, Republican candidates he's endorsed in Arizona's senate and governor races.

☆ With Control of the Senate in Play, These Are the Races to Watch
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-07 | by ( Lauren Leatherand Jonathan Weisman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +5 min

With the Senate knotted at 50-50 for each party, Republican control is only one seat away. But recent fumbles by Republican candidates in New Hampshire, Georgia and Arizona have made finding those two winnable races more difficult. Then came the accusation that Mr. Walker, a staunch opponent of abortion, paid for an ex-girlfriend's abortion, and the race turned upside-down. Cook Political Report still rates the contest a tossup, but the new allegations have given Mr. Warnock an edge and put Mr. Walker on the defensive. The Democrats’ best chance to pick up a Republican seat is in Pennsylvania , where Senator Patrick J. Toomey is retiring.

Flash-forward to today, at the peak of the midterm elections’ race, and the political landscape around reproductive freedom and abortion rights has massively shifted. The Supreme Court’s stunning decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in June swept away abortion rights, allowing the GOP to start making good on the draconian abortion measures they’ve long been cheerleading. And those voters are increasingly in the abortion rights camp. According to Gallup, women support abortion rights by a nearly 30-point margin. President Bill Clinton preferred to discuss abortion as “safe, legal and rare,” a catchphrase that many Democrats adopted later.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz was the only GOP committee member to oppose the bill. Other numbers to know:155 miles per hour: How fast the maximum sustained winds of Hurricane Ian were as of Wednesday morning, per the National Hurricane Center. 23 percentage points: Democrat Beto O’Rourke’s edge over Republican Gov. Last night, Democratic Gov. Tim.”Oklahoma Senate: Former President Donald Trump endorsed Republican Sen. James Lankford in his Senate bid, after conspicuously not endorsing the GOP incumbent in his primary.

☆ Factbox: Eight U.S. Senate races to watch in November's midterm elections
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( Moira Warburton | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor and U.S. Senate candidate John Fetterman speaks during a rally in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S., September 24, 2022. The chamber is currently split 50-50 between Republicans and Democrats, who are able to control the agenda thanks to Vice President Kamala Harris' tie-breaking vote. The state is a former Republican stronghold where Democrats have made surprise gains in recent elections - Biden won the state by 0.3% in 2020. Masters' struggles have led Republicans to pull funding and analysts have shifted their predictions for the race in Kelly's favor. National groups have been pouring in money, and the topic of abortion is front and center since the state's Republican legislature banned all abortions after six weeks.

☆ The American right’s future involves waging a 'religious battle' against the left, leaders say at a conservative conference
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Https | Media-Cldnry.S-Nbcnews.Com Image Upload Newscms | Allan Smith | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +13 min

MIAMI — In a luxury Miami resort earlier this month, leading conservative politicians, influencers and academics gathered to formulate a grand path forward for the American right. Meanwhile, the broader American left was repeatedly denounced as the “enemy” and a “regime” with “evil” ideas. The conference was backed by substantial donations from conservative advocacy groups and think tanks that included the Common Sense Society, The Heritage Foundation and the Conservative Partnership Institute. One panel featured a presentation titled “How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Christian Nationalism,” though some attendees saw a more clear distinction between the two nationalist ideologies. “Sometimes people get swept up in the ideas of Christian nationalism,” Jordan Esrig, a senior at Vanderbilt University who attended the conference, said.

☆ Dozens of Trump’s phony electors, many under investigation, still hold powerful GOP jobs in key states
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Natasha Korecki | Kaitlyn Francis | Natasha Korecki Is A Senior National Political Reporter For Nbc News. | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +13 min

Law enforcement activity has not pushed these false electors from their political perches. Al Drago / Bloomberg via Getty ImagesAll told, 23 of those false electors hold positions of power within their Republican parties. Then there are additional actors that didn’t serve in the slate of false electors themselves but were instrumental in the scheme. Others hold positions of power within the state GOP, including Shafer, who is chair; Joseph Brannan, state GOP treasurer; Vikki Consiglio, the state party’s assistant treasurer; and Ken Carroll, the assistant secretary. On June 21, federal agents scattered across key states to deliver subpoenas to those who acted as Trump electors.

☆ Doctors say Graham abortion ban would force women to have transvaginal ultrasounds
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-20 | by ( Https | Media-Cldnry.S-Nbcnews.Com Image Upload Newscms Jonathan-Allen-Circle-Byline-Template.Jpg | Jonathan Allen | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +5 min

WASHINGTON — Sen. Lindsey Graham's national 15-week abortion ban would likely force many women to undergo invasive transvaginal ultrasounds before terminating pregnancies, according to doctors. Because violations of Graham's proposed 15-week ban would be punishable by up to five years in prison, doctors say the legislation would create a powerful incentive to perform transvaginal ultrasounds to make an age judgment. With Democrats in control of the House, Senate and White House, Graham’s bill stands no chance of advancing this year. Before he introduced his bill, Graham's effort was expected by some in the GOP to help Republicans reset the politics of abortion. For others, the details of Graham's ban are politically tricky, especially in states that have passed different abortion restrictions in recent years.

☆ GOP megadonor Peter Thiel to host fundraiser for Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-20 | by ( Brian Schwartz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Republican megadonor Peter Thiel is hosting a fundraiser at his Los Angeles home next week for Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters after GOP officials asked the tech mogul for more money heading into the final stretch of the November midterm elections. The move by Thiel to host Masters comes as donations from the tech mogul to separate super PACs supporting Masters and Ohio Senate candidate J.D. Republican leaders and campaign officials, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., have reportedly asked Thiel to help Vance and Masters in the general election. Vance and Masters both worked with Thiel before they launched their Senate campaigns. Vance once worked at investment firm Mithril Capital, which was co-founded by Thiel, while Masters was the chief operating officer at Thiel Capital.

☆ Democrat Mark Kelly has a narrow lead over GOP challenger Blake Masters in the Arizona Senate race, while Katie Hobbs and Kari Lake are tied in the gubernatorial contest: poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-10 | by ( John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Mark Kelly has a 47%-45% lead over Blake Masters in the Arizona Senate race, per a new Emerson poll. Secretary of State Katie Hobbs and former television journalist Kari Lake are tied at 46% support. Arizona in recent years has shifted from a Republican stronghold to a Southwestern swing state. The survey showed Kelly earning 47% of the vote, while Masters garnered 45% support; five percent of respondents were undecided. The Emerson College poll also showed Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs tied with Republican gubernatorial nominee and former television journalist Kari Lake, with each candidate receiving 46% support.

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