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Asian markets close the week on a solid footing, which is how they may well round off the year if financial conditions - global and local - remain as supportive as they are right now. Annual inflation in November is expected to fall to 5.1% from 5.7% in South Korea. chartThe substantial easing in U.S. financial conditions since mid-October has been crucial to this performance. Local financial conditions are also supportive. Financial conditions in Japan, South Korea and Thailand have all stayed relatively tight, almost entirely due to the appreciation of their currencies against the dollar.
[1/2] South Korea's new central bank governor Rhee Chang-yong speaks during his inauguration ceremony in Seoul, South Korea April 21, 2022. But he added that South Korean interest rates should not get too far below those of the United States, because of the risk of capital outflow. With the policy rate now at 3.25%, Rhee hopes it will not have to go much higher. It is the first time that the central bank governor has specified a level around which he hopes rates will peak. The Fed's policy rate is currently 3.75% to 4.00%.
SEOUL, Nov 30 (Reuters) - South Korea's central bank is ready to readjust the pace of its policy tightening to respond to an economic slowdown and a slumping property market, the bank's governor told the Reuters NEXT conference on Wednesday. But Rhee Chang-yong declined to say whether the Bank of Korea would stop raising interest rates before the U.S. Federal Reserve, though he added that it was now better able to take into account domestic factors than before. The Bank of Korea, which was among the first central banks of major economies to start raising rates in August last year, has lifted the benchmark rate by a total of 275 basis points from a record low figure of 0.5%. Reporting by Cynthia Kim, Choonsik Yoo and Jihoon Lee; Editing by Clarence FernandezOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
SEOUL, Nov 29 (Reuters) - South Korea's government and the central bank should pay greater attention to addressing any financial instability as the economy is headed for slower inflation, President Yoon Suk-yeol told Reuters. "There are increasing opinions that inflation has passed its peak and it's time to slow down the speed and reduce the breadth of the rate hikes. However we must still continue to closely monitor any possible financial instability," Yoon said during a broader interview in his office on Monday, when asked if it is time for the Bank of Korea to slow monetary tightening. Yoon's comments come as the BOK last week signalled that it could be nearing the end of an unprecedented streak of policy tightening in Asia’s fourth-largest economy to curb inflation. Writing by Cynthia Kim; Editing by Himani Sarkar & Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
SEOUL, Nov 29 (Reuters) - South Korea's government and the central bank should pay greater attention to addressing any financial instability, President Yoon Suk-yeol told Reuters, as the money market grapples with a steep selloff amid rising interest rates and a property slump. Yoon's comments come as the BOK last week signalled that it could be nearing the end of an unprecedented streak of policy tightening in Asia’s fourth-largest economy to curb inflation. South Korea's money market, especially at the short-end of the bill curve, has experienced one of the worst routs in Asia as investors sold-off in the wake of rising interest rates and a broader property market downturn. South Korea's household debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 102.2% in the second quarter, the highest level among 35 major economies tracked by the Institute of International Finance. The BOK's monetary policy committee unanimously agreed to hike interest rates by a quarter-percentage point to 3.25% at its Nov. 24 review - taking the benchmark rate to its highest since 2012.
For the currency markets, it meant the 7-week sell-off in the dollar continued. "The dollar could stay pressured for a bit longer, but it's probably embedding a good deal of Fed-related negatives now," analysts at ING wrote. Overnight, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 1.3%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) and South Korean shares (.KS11) both rose around 1%. In the oil market, prices were slipping toward a major support level established in September. Wednesday's post-Fed U.S. bond market moves had seen yields on 10-year notes drop to a huge 79-basis-point deficit relative to two-year yields.
Morning Bid: COVID vs RRR
  + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
SYDNEY, Nov 24 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu:Another central bank pivots. This has aided the risk-on mood in the market, with Asian shares mostly advancing and U.S. dollar broadly weaker. The minutes of the Fed's November policy meeting showed a "substantial majority" of policymakers reckon it will "likely soon be appropriate" to slow the pace of rate hikes. China's COVID infections hit a record high, with Beijing, which has the strictest rules, failing to contain the spreading virus. "In our view, ending zero COVID as soon as possible is the key to raising credit demand and bolstering growth."
SYDNEY, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Asian shares tracked Wall Street higher on Thursday, buoyed by signals the U.S. Federal Reserve may slow the pace of interest rate hikes and news of fresh economic stimulus from China, with the dollar failing to recoup losses. S&P 500 futures were up 0.2%, while Nasdaq futures <NQc1> rose 0.3%, after modest gains in U.S. stocks on Wednesday. "However, the minutes also reveal an emerging divergence of views among members about the peak rate, and uncertainty about the peak rate." In Japan, data on Thursday showed manufacturing activity contracted at the fastest pace in two years in November. Meanwhile, in China, COVID cases continued to surge, with the economic toll from mobility restrictions and lockdowns piling up.
The Bank of Korea (BOK) raised its benchmark policy rate (KROCRT=ECI) to 3.25% on Thursday, the highest level since 2012, after delivering a half-percentage point hike in October. The BOK is in the midst of its most aggressive policy tightening on record, having been a front-runner in withdrawing pandemic-era stimulus in the region when it started raising interest rates in August 2021. Since then, it has raised rates by a total of 275 basis points, delivering bigger 50-basis-point rate hikes for the first time since the current monetary framework was introduced in 1999. The central bank aims to keep inflation at 2%. The slowdown in the tightening pace has also been facilitated by a rebound in the local currency.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific are set to trade higher as the U.S. Federal Reserve officials said they expect to switch to smaller rate hikes "soon," according to minutes released on Wednesday. The Bank of Korea is expected to deliver a scaled back rate hike of 25 basis points, according to economists polled by Reuters. The S&P/ASX 200 in Australia rose 0.2% after stocks on Wall Street rose mildly following the Fed minutes release. The Nikkei futures contract in Chicago was at 28.355 and its counterpart in Osaka was at 28,350 – higher than the Nikkei 225's last close at 28,115.74.
SEOUL, Nov 24 (Reuters) - South Korea's central bank raised interest rates by a more modest 25 basis points on Thursday, as expected, slowing the pace of policy tightening as it tries to tame inflation without choking off economic growth. The Bank of Korea (BOK) raised its benchmark policy rate (KROCRT=ECI) to 3.25%, the highest level since July 2012, after delivering a half-percentage point hike in October. All but one of 30 economists expected the central bank to opt for a quarter-point hike in a Reuters poll, while one forecast another half-point rise. The Bank of Korea has raised the policy rate by a total of 275 basis points since August 2021 from a record low of 0.50%. Reporting by Cynthia Kim, Jihoon Lee and Choonsik Yoo; Editing by Ana Nicolaci da CostaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File PhotoNov 24 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. The Fed gave U.S. markets a perfect pre-Thanksgiving tonic on Wednesday, which should keep risk appetite bubbling along nicely in Asia on Thursday. U.S. markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, and liquidity and activity will be light on Friday. chartEncouraging signs could come from South Korea. South Korea's economy is losing momentum as higher living costs dent household income and demand.
REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File PhotoNov 24 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. The Fed gave U.S. markets a perfect pre-Thanksgiving tonic on Wednesday, which should keep risk appetite bubbling along nicely in Asia on Thursday. U.S. markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, and liquidity and activity will be light on Friday. chartEncouraging signs could come from South Korea. South Korea's economy is losing momentum as higher living costs dent household income and demand.
South Korea producer inflation hits 16-month low in Oct
  + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
SEOUL, Nov 24 (Reuters) - South Korea's annual producer inflation slowed for a fourth straight month in October to a 16-month low, central bank data showed on Thursday. The producer price index stood 7.3% higher in October than the same month a year ago, according to the Bank of Korea (BoK), after a revised 7.9% rise in September. Producer inflation had hit a near 14-year high of 10.0% in June. On a monthly basis, however, the index rose 0.5%, picking up from a revised 0.1% in September and the fastest in four months. The monthly rise was led by utility prices for electricity, gas, water supply and waste, which jumped 8.1%.
SEOUL, Nov 23 (Reuters) - South Korean manufacturers' business sentiment for December dropped to a more than two-year low, a central bank survey showed on Wednesday, amid growing economic uncertainties and persistently high inflation. The business outlook index for the manufacturing sector fell to 70 for December on a seasonally adjusted basis from 75 for November, according to the Bank of Korea's monthly survey of companies. In the survey, manufacturers cited economic uncertainty as the biggest difficulty, accounting for 22.7% of total responses, followed by rising raw material prices (18.5%) and weak domestic demand (11.4%). The index for non-manufacturers also inched down to 76 for December, from 77 for November, hitting the lowest since March 2021. Reporting by Jihoon Lee; Editing by Bradley PerrettOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
South Korea's economic growth was fast losing momentum at latest measure as higher living costs erode household income and crimp demand, pressuring the Bank of Korea (BoK) to strike a balance between inflation and growth. All but one of 30 economists in the Nov. 15-21 poll forecast the BoK would raise its policy rate (KROCRT=ECI) by 25 basis points to 3.25% on Thursday. If the majority view prevails, the BoK will take rates to the highest level since 2012. "Amid climbing concerns about growth and the credit market, the case for hiking at a more gradual pace has strengthened further." Nearly 60% of respondents, 17 of 30, forecast another hike by 25 basis points by end-March, taking rates to 3.50%.
Nov 21 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. World stocks have rebounded strongly, bond yields and the dollar have fallen, and financial conditions eased significantly over the last month as investors bet that the Fed is preparing the ground for the much-vaunted 'pivot'. This deepens the problems that Asian markets and policymakers have been facing all year - historically low exchange rates, FX market intervention, rising inflationary pressures, and raising domestic interest rates into weak growth. Asia's powerhouses Japan and China are loosening policy, of course, and their currencies and FX reserves are taking a hit. But if Fed hawks and dollar bulls set the market tone, they may have to tighten more than they had envisaged.
Take Five: Black Friday test
  + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
1/GOING SHOPPINGWith concerns that the U.S. economy may be on the verge of a recession, a key test of consumer demand arrives on Nov. 25, when retailers launch "Black Friday" sales - a day traditionally marked by long lines of shoppers eager to pounce on discounts. Soaring inflation and surging interest rates could test buying appetite. The dollar index, meanwhile, peaked at a 20-year high of 114.78 in September and has been falling ever since. Reuters Graphics3/BLEAK OUT THEREThe International Monetary Fund says the global economic outlook is even gloomier than it was a month ago. Preliminary readings of business activity in November from a number of economies could answer the question in the coming days.
SEOUL, Nov 16 (Reuters) - South Korea's housing prices fell at the sharpest rate in at least 19 years in October, adding to expectations the nation's central bank will slow its pace of interest rate hikes in the coming weeks. In the capital Seoul, apartment prices declined 1.24%, the fastest since December 2008, extending losses to a ninth straight month. The national index for apartment transaction prices dropped 7.13% during the January-September period, on track for the biggest annual decline since that data was introduced in 2006. Analysts expect only one or two more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Korea for the remainder of this year and 2023 to take the terminal rate to 3.25% or 3.50%. South Korea's household debt-to-GDP ratios stood at 102.2% in the second quarter, data of 35 major economies from the Institute of International Finance showed.
SEOUL, Nov 15 (Reuters) - South Korea's export and import prices rose at slower paces in October, with the latter softening to a 15-month low, central bank data showed on Tuesday. The country's export prices, in terms of the won currency, rose 13.7% in October from a year earlier, according to the Bank of Korea's provisional data, slower than a revised 14.7% rise in the previous month. Import prices also rose at a slower annual rate of 19.8%, compared with a revised 24.2% gain in September, and it marked the slowest rate since July 2021. The slowdown came despite higher oil prices and a weaker currency than in the previous month, with Dubai oil prices and dollar-won exchange rates rising 0.2% and 2.5% on monthly average, respectively, according to the BOK. In October 2021, export and import prices jumped 26.1% and 36.3%, respectively, marking their fastest annual growth rates in more than 13 years.
South Korea FX reserves fall again in Oct as won weakens
  + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
SEOUL, Nov 3 (Reuters) - South Korea's foreign exchange reserves shrank for a third consecutive month in October, although by a relatively small amount, partly due to efforts of taming the won's fall against the U.S. dollar, the central bank said on Thursday. The country's foreign exchange reserves fell by $2.76 billion last month to $414.01 billion, data released by the Bank of Korea showed. It had dropped by $19.67 billion in September, which was the second-biggest monthly drop on record. The central bank cited efforts to contain the weakening won as a factor for the decline, which it said more than offset gains of reserves in dollar value coming from the U.S. unit's drop in value against major currencies. October marked the 10th out of the past 12 months that South Korea's foreign exchange reserves shrank, as the won lost 18% of its value against the dollar over the 12-month period.
S.Korea inflation ticks up in Oct, tops expectations
  + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Choonsik Yoo | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
SEOUL, Nov 2 (Reuters) - South Korea's annual consumer inflation in October ticked up from September against market expectations for no change, led by lagging effects of earlier global raw materials prices, government data showed on Wednesday. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 5.7% in October from a year earlier, according to the Statistics Korea data. The median forecast in a Reuters survey of economists was for the annual CPI growth to be 5.6% in October, although five of the 11 economists polled predicted higher rates. The CPI rose 0.3% in October on a monthly basis, the same rate as in September and higher than a 0.2% gain seen in the survey. Core inflation, which strips volatile foods and energy prices, ticked up to 4.2% in October on an annual basis from 4.1% in September to mark the fastest since December 2008.
SEOUL, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Across South Korea, events such as autumn foliage festivals and K-Pop concerts are canceled, and grief-stricken communities are putting off gatherings after a Seoul crowd crush killed at least 154 people, threatening to crimp growth further. Universities have canceled weekend retreats known as MTs, and the opening event of the two-week Korea Sale Festa, the Korean version of the Black Friday, was called off. South Korea's southern resort island of Jeju called off the Jeju Olle Walking Festival, scheduled from Nov 3 to 5. The Korea Baseball Organization and Korea Volleyball Federation both said there won't be cheerleaders during its championship series. South Korea's economic growth already decelerated last quarter in response to slowing exports and a weakening currency.
Economists have pointed to growing challenges for Korea's economy as sustained high inflation, rapidly rising interest rates worldwide and continuing global supply-chain disruptions sap demand both at home and abroad. "Today's figure, although appearing okay, is already about the past while the future is getting more difficult both in terms of domestic and global demand," said Park Sang-hyun, chief economist at HI Investment & Securities. Despite managing positive growth, a breakdown of the figures showed Asia's fourth-largest economy was losing momentum quickly in the face of cooling global demand, a wave of policy tightening and high inflation. On an annual basis, the economy expanded by 3.1% in the third quarter after a 2.9% gain in the second quarter. Reporting by Jihoon Lee and Choonsik Yoo; Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Richard PullinOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Even as the global economy is headed into a recession, South Korea's economy saw a small growth backed by what one analyst attributed to "revenge spending" as the country reopens. Gross domestic product rose 0.3% for the July-September period, according to Bank of Korea data — the slowest quarterly growth seen in a year. "I think that the momentum domestically is rather resilient," said Kathleen Oh, Bank of America's Korea economist on CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia." "Consumption is holding up strong with the reopening and pent-up demand in services, we're actually seeing quite strong 'revenge spending' in leisure, entertainment and travel," she said, adding that domestic demand is likely to support continued growth until the rest of this year. South Korea's third quarter GDP report showed growth was backed mostly by consumer spending and investment in facilities, which grew 1.9% and 5% respectively.
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