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☆ Factbox: BOJ's next steps and triggers for policy shift
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

While Ueda has stressed the BOJ will be in no rush to dial back stimulus, the central bank is dropping clues on possible triggers of a policy shift. ABANDON OR TWEAK YIELD TARGETIn ending YCC, the first step will be to abandon or modify the 10-year yield target. One idea would be to widen the band around the yield target, now set at 50 basis points on either side. TWEAKING FORWARD GUIDANCEBefore tweaking the yield cap, the BOJ could drop more hints of a policy shift such as by modifying forward guidance. Big upward revisions to its inflation forecasts at a July quarterly review would signal the BOJ's conviction that conditions for a policy shift are falling into place.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda's, Ueda, YCC, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan

Economists polled by Reuters had expected new yuan loans would jump to 1.6 trillion yuan last month, versus 718.8 billion yuan in April and against 1.89 trillion yuan a year earlier. Outstanding yuan loans in May grew 11.4% on year compared with 11.8% growth the previous month. Household loans including mortgages were up 367.2 billion yuan in May, versus a contraction of 241.1 billion yuan in April. Corporate loans rose to 855.8 billion yuan in May from 683.9 billion yuan in April, central bank data showed. In May, TSF rose to 1.56 trillion yuan from 1.22 trillion yuan in April.

Persons: Zhiwei Zhang, Yi Gang, Nomura, TSF, Qiaoyi Li, Judy Hua, Kevin Yao, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: People's Bank of China, Reuters, PMI, Capital, Analysts, U.S, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Shanghai, Beijing, U.S . Federal, TSF

☆ Take Five: Skip, stop or go?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Leah Millis/File PhotoJune 9 (Reuters) - It's a week of the central bank heavies with the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan meeting. The Fed is tipped to stop with rate hikes (for now), the ECB, to keeping going (for now), while the BOJ remains in stop mode (for now). U.S. inflation numbers, Chinese data and a crunch moment for UBS and Credit Suisse means there's plenty happening. 1/ A LOT GOING ONMarkets get not one but two headline events with U.S. May inflation data out on Tuesday as the Fed kicks off its two-day meeting. For now, markets price in just one more increase this year, an outlook investors seem comfortable with, judging by the recent strong performance of U.S. stocks.

Persons: Leah Millis, Li Gu, Kevin Buckland, Ira Iosebashvili, Yoruk, Noele, Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, culls, Dhara Ranasinghe, Rae Wee, John O'Donnell, John Stonestreet Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, ECB, UBS, Credit Suisse, U.S, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Li, Shanghai, Tokyo, New York, Amsterdam, Zurich, China, China's, Swiss, Singapore, Frankfurt

☆ These are the 22 best of the best investing ideas from Goldman Sachs' stock analysts right now
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Mark Reeth | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Goldman Sachs compiled the 22 best investing ideas from its US analysts, regardless of sector. These stocks all have strong fundamentals, high upside, and a "Buy" rating from Goldman Sachs. Instead, Goldman Sachs says investors should be searching for alpha — and they have some ideas about where to find it. Macro factors to watchA number of macroeconomic factors were at the top of Goldman Sachs analysts' minds as they were making their recommendations. The stocks below are Goldman Sachs' analysts' 22 most differentiated stock picks, taken from a wide range of sectors and investing styles.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Americas Equity Research Steven Kron, Kron, —, Said, there's Organizations: Americas Equity Research, Investment, Wall

☆ Analysis: Germany leads big bond rally as inflation finally heads down
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Borrowing costs, or bond yields, in the benchmark euro area issuer are down at least 20 basis points (bps) this week , . Yet this week's notable moves suggest investors are plumping with the view that easing inflation and recession risks are strong bond buy signals. Traders now expect the ECB hikes to peak at around 3.7% by September, suggesting two more hikes from 3.25% currently. COMPLICATEDInvestors cautioned that the European inflation outlook remained more complicated than in the United States, where inflation broadly is down sharply from peaks. This week's fall in borrowing costs followed sharp rises the previous two weeks on bets for more rate hikes.

Persons: Kaspar Hense, Flavio Carpenzano, It's, Cosimo Marasciulo, Marasciulo, BlueBay's Hense, Oliver Eichmann, DWS, Eichmann, Yoruk Bahceli, Harry Robertson, Dhara Ranasinghe, Susan Fenton Organizations: Bank, British, Thursday's, Traders, BlueBay Asset Management, Capital Group, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, General Investment Management, Bank of England, NatWest, Pictet Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Germany, United States, Europe, Amundi, U.S, Britain, DWS

LONDON, May 31 (Reuters) - U.S. domestic banks reported a widespread tightening of lending standards by the end of the first quarter of 2023 - even before the full impact of the regional banking crisis had been felt. The net percentage of domestic banks tightening standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to small businesses with annual sales below $50 million hit +47% at the end of the first quarter. The net percentage tightening small business C&I standards has risen to levels usually associated with recession, based on past results from the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS). Banks are likely pre-empting a slowdown in the business cycle and increase in unemployment, widely expected since late 2022, which will increase defaults. As the price of credit increases and its availability becomes more restricted, the slowdown in small business and household spending will act as another headwind for the economy.

Persons: Banks, John Kemp, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Federal Reserve, Senior, Bank Lending, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S

The easiest trade of the year is fizzling, and the lost momentum is keeping investors' money out. "I will not put any more money into stocks until all my losses are recovered," he said. Interviews with a dozen more small investors showed the sentiment to be reasonably widespread. Brokerage account creation, while volatile, likewise dropped off in April after promising momentum in February and March, China Securities Depository and Clearing data showed. "It is as if stocks are losing faith in the China recovery story," said Grow Investment Group chief economist Hong Hao.

The easiest trade of the year is fizzling, and the lost momentum is keeping investors' money out. Interviews with a dozen more small investors showed the sentiment to be reasonably widespread. Brokerage account creation, while volatile, likewise dropped off in April after promising momentum in February and March, China Securities Depository and Clearing data showed. "It is as if stocks are losing faith in the China recovery story," said Grow Investment Group chief economist Hong Hao. China's April industrial output and retail sales growth undershot forecasts as the recovery turned wobbly.

Persons: Eric Yu, Yi Huiman, Hong Hao, Wang Zaizheng, Chi Lo, Hayden Briscoe, Meng, Jason Xue, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: China Securities Regulatory, JPMorgan, China Securities Depository, Mutual, Grow Investment Group, Management, UBS Asset Management, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, China's, Shanghai, China, United States, Hong Kong, Asia, Pacific, Singapore

☆ Analysis: As sun sets on LIBOR, its successor rate may heighten bank risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The transition to the Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR) has been well-telegraphed for years and U.S. banks are mostly prepared for the new rate regime. Typically in a crisis, the cost of bank funding rises: rates on commercial paper and bond issuance increase as investors demand a premium to buy bank debt. This was highlighted by the New York Fed in a study released in December 2022 and updated last February. Bank funding costs have increased with the surge in interest rates since the Fed began tightening last year. "The transition has largely taken place and the rates on SOFR have risen in tandem with policy rate increases."

☆ Wall Street closes down, dollar dips as debt ceiling talks stall
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/3] A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, October 28, 2013. "All eyes are on Washington and investors remain focused on the debt ceiling," said David Carter, investment specialist at JPMorgan Private Bank in New York. "This is new territory and (it is) not perfectly clear if the Fed will allow tighter bank lending to replace tighter monetary policy." European shares closed higher and the German DAX reached a record high as hopes of progress in U.S. debt ceiling talks boosted investor sentiment. Oil prices edged lower following news that the debt ceiling talks were on pause, raising the possibility of a default that could hit energy demand.

☆ Wall Street turns red, dollar dips as debt ceiling talks stall
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

☆ Investors have pulled $8 billion from this pocket of the stock market in just 2 months on recessions worries and debt ceiling fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Small-cap stocks have been hurt by $8 billion in outflows from ETFs focused on that segment, says Jefferies. That started in March when Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were seized, spooking investors. "Banks are a big part of small caps and are headwinds for the size segment," Jefferies strategist Steven DeSanctis wrote in a Wednesday research note. Meanwhile, small-cap stocks, which make up just over 4% of the equity market, tend to perform worse than large-caps when the economy is veering into a recession. Meanwhile, the current stalemate between Republicans and Democrats on the debt ceiling doesn't bode well for small-cap stocks, which slid by 25% during 2011 debt standoff.

☆ China's carbon emissions to hit new record in 2023 on economic rebound. But they could peak soon, report says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Hong Kong CNN —China’s carbon emissions will likely hit a new record in 2023 on the back of an economic rebound, but a rapid expansion in green energy will enable its emissions to peak soon, a global energy think tank said on Friday. However, the emissions could peak soon, as China has accelerated its clean energy push and installed record amounts of solar and wind power capacity, the analysts pointed out. Coal production surged 11% in 2022 from 2021, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. This will lead to a sharp increase in bank lending and investment, particularly for manufacturing, transportation and energy production, they added. “When low-carbon power growth matches — and then exceeds — the annual increase in electricity demand, the sector’s CO2 emissions will peak,” they said.

Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsInvestors and analysts took the Labor Department report on the whole as supporting the prospect that the Fed would pause its rate increases at the June 13-14 meeting. The PCE, which is the Fed's preferred gauge for its 2% inflation target, has been running at more than twice that level. Continued readings like the ones in April could weaken the case for pausing rate hikes. That's how increases in its policy rate influence economic activity. FEDSPEAK: OngoingThe Fed's internal communications rules set a "blackout" period around each policy meeting.

☆ As Bank Lending Tightens, Small Businesses Turn to Customers to Raise Money
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Ben Ashwell | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

As it gets harder for small businesses to land conventional loans, more of them are turning to a new source of funding: their customers. Using a relatively little-known financing tool, businesses are able to sell bonds to hundreds of customers and community members—with some investing as little as $10.

"When you get into higher interest rates ... you look to your collateral," Rodeheaver said in an interview. "We are tightening on price and profitability ... That is going to slow lending a bit." "The economy has started to slow in an orderly fashion" in response to higher interest rates, Jefferson said, calling tighter credit conditions "part of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy." Powell, however, said he felt the impact of the credit shock "remains uncertain," and his own baseline outlook does not include a recession. Bank lending dipped about 1.7% in the two weeks following SVB's collapse, but has risen since then and recouped about a third of the decline.

Cromwell’s rule plays an important formal role in Bayesian statistics but it is important for any exercise in prediction and analysis. SOFT LANDING CONDITIONSI have written elsewhere the global economy is on course for a significant mid-cycle slowdown if not a cycle-ending recession. Multiple conditions would need to be satisfied, and none violated, for a soft landing to occur. The soft landing scenario is so tricky to pull off and therefore so improbable it has been called “immaculate disinflation” by some forecasters. Nevertheless, the probability of a soft landing is far from zero.

☆ The U.S. may be seeing a 'compression' in credit rather than a crunch, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe U.S. may be seeing a 'compression' in credit rather than a crunch, economist saysBrian Jacobsen of Annex Wealth Management discusses the U.S. Federal Reserve's quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices and what it tells us about tighter credit conditions.

In Europe, the broad pan-regional STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.34% on expectations non-U.S. stocks will outperform in the months ahead. Sterling , which has gained 4.4% against the dollar this year, earlier hit a 12-month high of 1.2668 ahead of an expected Bank of England rate increase on Thursday. The dollar rose 0.01% against the yen. "The survey should point to further broad-based tightening in bank lending standards," said Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan. Bullion regained ground after a sharp retreat in the previous session, ahead of the inflation data that could shed light on the outlook for U.S. interest rates.

☆ Dollar on rates-watch as traders wait on loans data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The yen slipped slightly, reflecting Friday's move higher in U.S. bond yields that followed strong jobs data. "But for the time being, the market is likely to run with the theme of a peak in Fed rates justifying a clear peak in the dollar." The U.S. dollar index dropped for a second week in a row last week, losing about 0.4%. "There is a risk that regional bank issues could escalate, posing a broader risk to the financial system and taking the dollar (higher)," said Standard Chartered's head of G10 FX research, Steve Englander. "We think that the escalation of debt-ceiling concerns is a more likely source of risk-off dollar strength via demand for immediate dollar liquidity."

☆ Asia shares inch higher, U.S. inflation test looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"The survey should point to further broad-based tightening in bank lending standards," said Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan. "Though our analysis suggests that the impact of a credit tightening against an otherwise healthy backdrop tends to be limited." S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both off 0.1%, after jumping on Friday in the wake of Apple's (AAPL.O) upbeat results. The dollar stood at 135.19 yen , with the euro at 148.93 and not far from its recent 15-year peak of 151.55. Brent was last up 3 cents at $75.33 a barrel, while U.S. crude added 5 cents to $71.39 per barrel.

Both hiked interest rates a quarter point - but only the ECB said more was to come. Without committing to it, the Fed signalled a pause in its 13-month, five percentage point tightening campaign. Money markets do partly agree with Lagarde - seeing one more quarter point rate rise in the pipeline. They now see the so-called terminal ECB rate at 3.5% in September - still a chunky 175 bps below peak Fed rates if you assume that at 5.25%, those have now reached the end of the line. "The extent of policy tightening delivered by the ECB to date is already sufficient to cause a recession," said Fidelity International's Anna Stupnytska.

☆ Regional bank stocks could be a market afterthought in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

For the immediate economic and earnings and growth outlook, it almost seems irrelevant whether regional bank stocks rally, steady or sell off more next week. Regional banks were top of mind for investors this past week, as First Republic failed , the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF tumbled more than 10% — twice the five-day loss in the S & P 500 Energy Index, the hardest hit S & P sector — and lenders such as PacWest Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp lost billions in market value. And, for all that, the S & P 500 only fell about 0.75% this week. Now the conventional wisdom on Wall Street is that regardless of how the regional bank stocks trade, it's a given that bank lending officers are going to pull in their horns and risk management desks will grow more risk averse. But stocks still face a host of issues, none of which are going away next week.

☆ US bank lending edges up in latest week, deposits fall -Fed data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

May 5 (Reuters) - Deposits at U.S. commercial banks fell in the week ended April 26, data released on Friday by the Federal Reserve showed, while overall credit provided by banks moved up. At large U.S. banks deposits fell to $10.54 trillion from $10.61 trillion a week earlier, on a non-seasonal basis. Deposits at small banks totaled $5.32 trillion, compared with $5.34 trillion. Total banking system credit rose to $17.37 trillion led by an increase in loans and leases to $12.11 trillion from $12.07 trillion in the previous week. Reporting by Dan BurnsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Yen set to snap 3-week losing streak on bank jitters, dollar slips
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A bundle of Japanese 10,000 yen banknotes on a tray arranged at a branch of Resona Bank Ltd. in Tokyo, Japan. "The Japanese yen has slowly gained back its appeal of safe haven status, and has definitely been supported by concerns about U.S. regional banks and the associated safe-haven demand," Kong said. A deepening crisis across U.S. regional banks have kept investors on tenterhooks, with pressure growing on U.S. regulators to take more steps to shore up the sector. "For the Fed's June decision, inflation data and employment indicators ... along with bank lending standards will be key to watch. Down Under, the Australian dollar rose 0.26% to $0.6711, while the kiwi NZD=D3 touched a three-week high of $0.6311.

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