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Macquarie economist Danny Doyle said he now expects just two interest rate cuts this year and no recession in 2024 or 2025. Doyle had previously expected as many as nine interest rate cuts just two months ago. One such economist is Danny Doyle, Macquarie's head of economics, who pulled a U-turn on Thursday when he slashed his 2024 interest rate forecast to just two rate cuts of 25 basis points a piece. That's fewer than the Federal Reserve's own forecast of three interest rate cuts this year. Doyle expects the Fed's first interest rate cut to happen at the July FOMC meeting, while the market expects the first interest rate cut to happen in May, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Danny Doyle, Doyle, Macquarie's Organizations: Macquarie, Federal, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed's
In a letter days before the Fed’s decision Wednesday to hold interest rates steady at a 23-year high, Democratic US senators blasted the central bank for America’s housing woes. In 2021 when the Fed’s key interest rate was near zero, home-price growth soared at a historic double-digit pace, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. Divounguy said that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will likely not fall below 6% this year. That way we can actually start heading in the right direction with affordability and have that be sustainable and not just a short-term interest rate phenomenon,” she said. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin delivers remarks.
Persons: Valerie Plesch, Orphe Divounguy, Freddie Mac, it’s, Fannie Mae, Divounguy, ” Daryl Fairweather, Trump, Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, Powell, David Goldman, Alexandra Ross, ” Trump, Maria Bartiromo, Joe Biden, Estee Lauder, Tyson, Raphael Bostic, Eli Lilly, Loretta Mester, Walt Disney, Adriana Kugler, Thomas Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Ralph Lauren, Armour Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Democratic, Eccles Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Getty, CNN, National Association of Realtors, Fox Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Trump, Fed, Caterpillar, Tyson Foods, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Atlanta Fed, Toyota, UBS AG, Chipotle, Cleveland Fed, Walt, CVS, PayPal, Brands, Fox, The Carlyle, News Corporation, New York Times Company, Mattel, Spirit Airlines, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, ConocoPhillips, Unilever, Duke Energy, Expedia, Warner Music Group, Tenet Healthcare, Richmond Fed, Pepsico, Honda Locations: Washington, Washington , DC, CAVA
The economy is in good shape and earnings are expanding, which spells good news for stocks, according to Stephanie Link. "We're in the sweet spot of this economy, in terms of growth," which is great news for corporate profits and points to wider stock market rally involving more stocks, Link said. "We're running at 4.2% from the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker, you've got PMIs [purchasing manager indexes] that are bottoming, new orders that are inflecting [higher]," Link said. "It means better earnings. A strong economy means better earnings, and that is what is happening.
Persons: Stephanie Link, Link, Hightower, you've, We've Organizations: Hightower Associates, Atlanta Fed
Wall Street continues to climb a wall of worry even as investors deliberate how much longer equities can maintain their record run. But questions remain for investors after some major disappointments in an intense week suggested more challenges ahead. Apple dropped 3% this week after reporting lackluster earnings, weighing on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Elsewhere in corporate earnings, regional banks as represented by the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF slid 7% after poor results from New York Community Bank spurred investor fears of a wider contagion. Signs of market weakness For investors, there may be more issues in the market going forward in 2024.
Persons: Stocks, Jerome Powell, Apple, Scott Rubner, Goldman Sachs, Rubner, Russell, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, CNBC's, Sonders, Lehman, Raymond James, Josh Beck, James McCann, Abrdn, McCann, Rhys WIlliams, Williams, it's, Art Hogan, They're, Hogan, Estee, Eli Lilly, Ralph Lauren, Rowe Price, Philip Morris Organizations: Meta, Dow Jones, Regional Banking, New York Community Bank, Bank, Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Markets, Wayve Capital Management, Riley, Atlanta, PMI, Simon Property, Companies, Tyson Foods, Semiconductor, Caterpillar, Prudential Financial, Ford Motor, Enphase Energy, GE Healthcare Technologies, Consumer, Walt Disney Co, Wynn Resorts, PayPal, Brands, CVS Health, Hilton Worldwide, Uber Technologies, Costco Wholesale, Motorola Solutions, Expedia, Rowe Price Group, ConocoPhillips, The Hershey Co, Philip Morris International, PepsiCo Locations: China
Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 353,000 for the month, much better than the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Job growth was widespread on the month, led by professional and business services with 74,000. The report also indicated that December's job gains were much better than originally reported. The January payrolls count comes with economists and policymakers closely watching employment figures for direction on the larger economy. The fourth quarter saw GDP increase at a strong 3.3% annualized pace, closing out a year in which the economy defied widespread predictions for a recession.
Persons: Dow Jones, Jerome Powell Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Labor, Gross, Atlanta, Fed Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed trying to calm down expectations for March rate cut, says Dennis LockhartDennis Lockhart, Former Atlanta Fed President, joins 'Power Lunch' to give his reaction to the Fed decision to leave rates unchanged.
Persons: Dennis Lockhart Dennis Lockhart Organizations: Former Atlanta Fed
The Fed is the biggest risk to a soft landing for the economy, former Fed official Claudia Sahm said. The Fed is the biggest risk to the soft landing." Instead, an "unnecessary" recession created by elevated interest rates would be far worse. Advertisement"The idea that the worst thing that the Fed can do is cut and then raise is dangerous," she wrote. For the Fed to reverse its rate cuts wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, Sahm said.
Persons: Claudia Sahm, , Chris Waller, Raphael Bostic, Sahm, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Jerome Powell, that's Organizations: Service, Atlanta Fed, Fed
Rising geopolitical headwinds and the potential for political turmoil could combine to thwart investors' hopes for the Federal Reserve to enact sharp interest rate cuts this year, according to JPMorgan Chase strategists. Markets have been betting that the Fed likely will start lowering its benchmark short-term borrowing rate by May or even as early as March. JPMorgan's investment team said the calculus could be important for investors as stocks and other asset classes look for direction. In recent days, multiple Fed officials have made remarks insisting that they are in no hurry to start cutting rates. For the full year, traders have gone from a strong chance of six cuts to a coin-flip between five and six.
Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Raphael Bostic, Christopher Waller, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Chase, JPMorgan, U.S, Fed, European Central Bank, Atlanta Fed, Federal, Market, Traders, Commerce Department Locations: 1H24
A watchdog review into market trading from two former high-ranking Federal Reserve officials criticizes their actions but does not accuse either of doing anything illegal. Revelations showed that some Fed officials engaged in market trading at a time when they also were considering important and delicate policy matters in the early days of the Covid pandemic in 2020. The report concludes that their actions resulted in conflicts of interest that raised issues over impartiality and the proper conduct of central bank officials. On Kaplan, the report states that the OIG "did not find that his trading activities violated laws, rules, regulations, or policies related to trading activities as investigated by our office." Since the controversy, the Fed has revamped its trading rules and now prohibits officials from owning stocks, bonds and cryptocurrencies.
Persons: Robert Kaplan, Eric Rosengren, — Kaplan, Jerome Powell, Richard Clarida, Raphael Bostic, Clarida, Kaplan Organizations: Eccles Federal, Federal, Fed's, Dallas, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Kaplan, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Dallas Fed Locations: Washington , DC, Boston, U.S
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 19, 2024. A day later, the Commerce Department will release the December reading on the personal consumption expenditures price index, a favorite Fed inflation gauge. "That's the thing that everybody should be watching to determine what the Fed's rate path will end up being," Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said during an interview Friday on CNBC. On top of that, several of Goolsbee's colleagues, including Governor Christopher Waller, New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, issued commentary indicating that at the very least they are in no hurry to cut even if the hikes are probably done. watch now"I don't like tying my hands, and we still have weeks of data," Goolsbee said.
Persons: Brendan Mcdermid, Dow Jones, Austan Goolsbee, Christopher Waller, John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Goolsbee Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters Markets, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Chicago Fed, CNBC, Group, Christopher Waller , New York Fed, Atlanta Fed, Labor Department Locations: New York City, U.S, Christopher Waller , New
New York CNN —The S&P 500 index closed Friday at a record high, fueled by surging tech stocks and bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. The benchmark index closed at 4,839.81, besting its previous high of 4,796.56, reached on January 3, 2022. Earlier in the trading session, the S&P 500 reached an intraday high of 4,832.17, topping its previous intraday high of 4,818.62, reached more than two years ago, on January 4, 2022. After a rocky start to the year, the S&P 500 has found its footing and is up about 1.5% in 2024. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a record high close in December as investors cheered the Fed’s dovish tilt.
Persons: , Raphael Bostic, doesn’t, Christopher Waller, Austin Goolsbee, ” Goolsbee Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Dow, Atlanta Fed, Chicago Fed, CNBC Locations: New York
Gold heads for worst weekly fall in six as rate-cut view tempers
  + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices have increased since the Ukraine War but have soared to record highs since the start of the Hamas-Israel war. Other factors are the weakening US dollar and expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Spot gold was little changed at $2,022.07 per ounce by 0404 GMT, but has fallen 1.3% so far in the week. Markets were betting on 139 basis points (bps) of Fed rate cuts this year, down from 150 bps a week earlier, according to LSEG's interest rate probability app, IRPR. The odds of a Fed rate cut in March have dropped to 54% from about 71% last week, according to IRPR.
Persons: Bullion, Hugo Pascal, Pascal, Raphael Bostic Organizations: Federal Reserve, hawkish Fed, U.S, Atlanta Federal Reserve Locations: Birmingham, England, Ukraine, Israel, InProved, IRPR
This year could be a banner one for dividends, according to Bank of America Securities. For one, high dividend yield tends to lead in recoveries and global wave upturns, she wrote. Dividends also bridge a gap between "muddled macro signals" that impede a full cyclical/small cap recovery as the Federal Reserve pauses and/or cuts rates, Subramanian said. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said Thursday he expects policymakers to start cutting rates in the third quarter of 2024. "We expect more cash to revert to equity income as retirees reach for yield as cash yields ebb," Subramanian said.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Raphael Bostic, There's, Humana, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America Securities, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Federal Reserve, CNBC Pro, ETF, Elevance Health
Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic expects policymakers to start cutting rates in the third quarter of this year, saying Thursday that inflation is well on its way back to the central bank's goal. While the remarks help illuminate a timeline for rate cuts, they also serve as a reminder that Fed officials and market participants have different expectations about policy easing. The implied probability for a quarter percentage point reduction has decreased in recent days but still stood around 57% on Thursday morning. Pricing further indicates a total of six cuts this year, or one at every FOMC meeting but one from March forward. "In such an unpredictable environment, it would be unwise to lock in an emphatic approach to monetary policy," Bostic said.
Persons: Raphael Bostic, Bostic, he's Organizations: Atlanta Federal Reserve, Market, Commerce, Labor Department, CNBC PRO Locations: Atlanta, Washington
Gold near 5-week low as rate-cut optimism tapers
  + stars: | 2024-01-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold bars arranged at the Korea Gold Exchange store in Seoul, South Korea, on Friday, Oct. 13, 2023. Gold prices hovered near five-week lows on Thursday, as hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials and robust data dampened investors' expectation for deeper and early interest rate cuts in U.S. this year. The dollar has strengthened substantially in the past few days, putting a strain on gold prices, Brian Lan at the Singapore based dealer GoldSilver Central, said. Money markets were betting on 142 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year, while pricing in a 61% chance of a March easing, according to LSEG's interest rate probability app, IRPR. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding bullion.
Persons: Brian Lan, it's, GoldSilver's Lan, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Christopher Waller's Organizations: Korea Gold Exchange, Federal Reserve, GoldSilver, Traders, Atlanta Federal Reserve Locations: Seoul, South Korea, Singapore
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Oct. 20, 2023. U.S. stock futures were little changed Wednesday night after the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched a third-straight losing day. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.04% and 0.09%, respectively. Wall Street is coming off a losing session for the major averages, as Treasury yields rose. "If you look at the fourth quarter, so much of that performance was chasing, right, and chasing and chasing," Toomey continued.
Persons: Dow, Chris Toomey, Morgan Stanley, Toomey, Raphael Bostic Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Dow, Nasdaq, Discover, LSEG, Treasury, Investors, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed
December's inflation data provided just enough evidence to show that the pace of price increases is continuing to cool while also serving up a reminder that the war isn't won yet. One is that regardless of the headline numbers, the parts of inflation that don't fluctuate as much have been fairly stubborn. So-called sticky inflation, which includes things such as housing costs, auto insurance, medical care services and household furnishings, are indeed holding higher. On a one-month annualized basis, the measure also was at 4.6%, but that's up a full percentage point from the previous month. Fed policymakers also are attuned to the relationship between wages and inflation.
Persons: isn't, Disinflation, Jamie Dimon, cautioning, Krishna Guha, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Ian Shepherdson, Dan North Organizations: Separate Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Nomura Global Economics, JPMorgan Chase, Evercore ISI, PPI, Citigroup, Commerce, Fed, Pantheon, Atlanta, Allianz Trade Locations: Red
Dollar falls as traders focus on data for Fed policy clues
  + stars: | 2024-01-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The greenback initially bounced on Friday after data showed that U.S. employers hired 216,000 workers in December, above economists' expectations in a Reuters poll, while average hourly earnings rose 0.4%, which was also above expectations. The U.S. currency then dropped, however, as investors focused on some underlying factors in the jobs report that showed less strength. It declined further after a separate report showed the U.S. services sector slowed considerably in December, with a measure of employment dropping to the lowest level in nearly 3-1/2 years. The release on Thursday of the consumer price inflation report for December will be the main piece of economic data this week. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in rate cuts beginning in March, though the odds of a move that soon have fallen.
Persons: Helen, Raphael Bostic Organizations: Federal Reserve, greenback, Monex USA, New York Fed, Traders, Atlanta Fed Locations: U.S, Washington
Barbara Furlow-Smiles attends the 2020 Sisters' Awards at Skirball Cultural Center in Los Angeles on March 8, 2020. A former global diversity strategist at Facebook pled guilty to wire fraud after stealing more than $4 million from the social media giant "to fund a lavish lifestyle" in California and Georgia, federal prosecutors said. In some instances, Furlow-Smiles had Facebook pay people who did not give her kickbacks, in one case directing $10,000 to an artist for specialty portraits, and more than $18,000 to a preschool for tuition, prosecutors said. As part of the scheme, Furlow-Smiles linked PayPal, Venmo and Cash App accounts to her Facebook credit cards and used those accounts to pay friends, relatives and other associates for goods and services purportedly provided to Facebook. Furlow-Smiles, who was not Facebook's top DEI executive, pled guilty in Atlanta federal court on Monday.
Persons: Barbara Furlow, Smiles, Furlow, Ryan Buchanan, Meta, Lance Clarke Organizations: Attorney's, Facebook Diversity, Equity, Facebook, PayPal, . U.S, Meta, CNBC, CNBC PRO Locations: Los Angeles, Atlanta, California, Georgia, .
US money supply has seen its longest stagnation since World War II, according to Jeremy Siegel. "You can't really have a growing economy when the M2 money supply is decreasing," Siegel told CNBC. AdvertisementThe US money supply is flashing a major warning to the US economy, according to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel. Money supply then rebounded through the summer, but has recently returned to its decline, nearing April's low. Advertisement"You can't really have a growing economy when the M2 money supply is decreasing," he warned.
Persons: Jeremy Siegel, Wharton, Siegel, Organizations: CNBC, Service, Federal Reserve, Federal, Atlanta
The stock market is boring right now, and that is not a bad thing. There's a strong backdrop going into December. The S & P 500 was up 8.9%, its best month since July 2022, and the fourth-best November since 1950. If it doesn't seem that way, it's because the S & P has been flat for the past week and a half. There will be lots of complaints about high valuations, and the cynics will be right: The S & P is approaching 19-times 2024 earnings.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, let's Organizations: Triple Witching, Treasury, Atlanta, Wall Street, Deutsche Bank, BMO Capital Markets, Capital Markets, Bank of America, Barclays, Goldman, UBS Global Wealth, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, JPMorgan, Dow, Revenue Locations: Wells Fargo
We are closing out an extraordinary month: The S & P 500 is up nearly 9%, its fourth-best month in 12 years. The equal weight S & P 500 is up almost as much as the market-cap weighted S & P 500. Of the 10 major financial firms, only two (Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan) see the S & P 500 lower next year. Wall Street strategists' year-end S & P 500 estimates . That puts the S & P 500 at a very rich multiple of almost 19 times forward earnings (17x is the historic norm).
Persons: Russell, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan, bullish, Brian Belski, Scott Wren, Wren, That's, JP Morgan's, Dubravko Organizations: Wall, Deutsche Bank, BMO Capital Markets, Capital Markets, Bank of America, Barclays, Goldman, UBS Global Wealth, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, Treasury, Core PCE, Wells Fargo Institute, CNBC Locations: Wells Fargo, Atlanta
Washington, DC CNN —US economic growth was even stronger in the third quarter than previously estimated, underscoring the economy’s remarkable resilience in the face of elevated inflation and high borrowing costs earlier this year. Wednesday’s latest reading reflects an even faster pace of growth than the blistering 4.9% rate the department initially estimated. Nonresidential fixed investment, or business spending, was revised up to a growth rate of 1.3% in the third quarter from a decline of 0.1%. Fourth-quarter spending likely won’t be as piping hot, however. Fed officials pay close attention to various facets of the US economy when deliberating monetary policy, including growth.
Persons: , Gregory Daco, , Christopher Waller, American Enterprise Institute . Waller, Michelle Bowman Organizations: DC CNN, Gross, Commerce, Consumer, Adobe Analytics, Institute for Supply Management, Employers, Atlanta Fed, Federal, , American Enterprise Institute ., Fed Locations: Washington, EY, Salt Lake City
"Monetary policy is in a good place for policymakers to assess incoming information on the economy and financial conditions," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Wednesday. The Fed has kept its policy rate unchanged in the 5.25%-5.50% range since July, and after the last meeting over Oct. 31-Nov. 1, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he is not yet confident policy is restrictive enough. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a policy hawk like Mester, on Tuesday delivered a similar assessment. Indeed, Waller said, if the inflation decline continues for several more months, rate cuts could be in order to keep policy from becoming overly tight. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who has for months said the Fed policy rate at 5.25%-5.50% is high enough, said Wednesday he feels data backing that view is getting clearer.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Loretta Mester, Mester, Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, Waller, I'm, Thomas Barkin, Barkin, Raphael Bostic, we’ve, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Deepa Babington Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Cleveland Fed, Richmond Fed, CNBC, Dallas Fed, Reuters, Atlanta Fed, Thomson Locations: El Progreso, Mount Pleasant, Washington ,
Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said Wednesday that policymakers need to retain the option of raising interest rates if inflation doesn't show enough progress coming down. But Barkin said he's not ready to commit to a particular policy path with so much uncertainty in the air. "But if inflation is going to flare back up, I think you want to have the option of doing more on rates," Barkin added. The Fed's preferred inflation measure of core personal consumption expenditures showed a 12-month rate of 3.7% in September and is expected to show a slightly lower reading in October. However, Barkin called the possibility of easing policy "a forecasting question" that he's not ready to answer.
Persons: Thomas Barkin, Barkin, he's, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Christopher Waller, he'd, it's, Raphael Bostic, Bostic Organizations: Richmond Federal, CNBC, Commerce Department, Fed, Atlanta Fed, Market
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