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Traders currently see a 50% chance of no rate hike at that meeting, with rate cuts priced in for the second half of the year. Shares of First Republic Bank (FRC.N) tumbled more than 60% as news of fresh financing failed to reassure investors, and so did Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N) and PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O). U.S. bank regulators sought to reassure nervous customers on Monday who lined up outside SVB's Santa Clara, California, headquarters, offering coffee and donuts. Regulators also moved swiftly to close New York's Signature Bank SBNY.O, which had come under pressure in recent days. In China, where SVB was the main go-to foreign bank for the majority of start-ups, entrepreneurs and venture funds were also scrambling for alternative funding.

SVB's meltdown sparked a partisan battle in Washington on Monday, with Democrats arguing that a Trump-era change to bank oversight rules undermined the stability of regional banks. In the money markets, indicators of credit risk in the U.S. and euro zone banking systems edged up. [1/3] U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the banking crisis after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S. March 13, 2023. On Monday morning, U.S. bank regulators sought to reassure nervous customers who lined up outside SVB's Santa Clara, California, headquarters, offering coffee and donuts. A furious race to reprice interest rate expectations also sent waves through markets as investors bet the Fed will be reluctant to hike next week.

Biden said his administration's actions over the weekend meant "Americans can have confidence that the banking system is safe", while also promising stiffer regulation after the biggest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis. Shares in U.S. banking giants JP Morgan Chase (JPM.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N) nevertheless weakened. But your second thought is, how big was that crisis, how big were the risks that this step had to be taken?" U.S. regulators stepped in on Sunday after the collapse of SVB, which had seen a run after a big bond portfolio hit. [1/3] U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the banking crisis after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S. March 13, 2023.

Germany's Commerzbank (CBKG.DE) fell as much as 12.7%, while Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) hit a new record low after falling 15%. Biden said his administration's rapid actions at the weekend should reassure Americans that the U.S. banking system is safe, and promised stiffer bank regulation after the country's biggest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis. "Americans can have confidence that the banking system is safe. But big U.S. banks including JP Morgan Chase (JPM.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N) also weakened. In the money markets, a closely watched indicator of credit risk in the U.S. banking system edged up, as did other indicators of credit risk in the euro zone.

[1/3] U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the banking crisis after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S. March 13, 2023. Germany's Commerzbank (CBKG.DE) fell as much as 12.7%, while Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) hit a new record low after falling more than 15%. Dowding said he did not think that a lot of the issues affecting U.S. banks would be present in European lenders. It said Silicon Valley Bank UK had loans of around 5.5 billion pounds and deposits of around 6.7 billion pounds as of March 10. U.S. banks lost more than $100 billion in stock market value late last week following SVB's failure, while European banks have now lost a similar amount, a Reuters calculation showed.

Earlier in the day, Japan's Topix bank index (.IBNKS.T) lost 4%, while Singapore's largest banks also lost ground, down over 1%. The U.S. government stepped in on Sunday with a series of emergency measures to shore up confidence in the banking system following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) (SIVB.O), which marked the biggest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis. Smaller banks remained under pressure with U.S. private bank First Republic Bank (FRC.N) plunging around 50% in pre market, and PacWest (PACW.O) down around 26%. U.S. banks lost over $100 billion in stock market value late last week following the collapse, while European banks lost around another $50 billion in value, according to a Reuters calculation. U.S. state regulators on Sunday also closed New York-based Signature Bank (SBNY.O), which became the next casualty of the banking turmoil after SVB.

☆ Investor dash for cash pumps U.S. money market funds to record high - BofA
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, March 10 (Reuters) - Assets invested in U.S. money market funds have reached a new all-time high of $4.9 trillion this year, as soaring short-term interest rates have sent investors rushing into cash, BofA Global Research said on Friday. Money market funds invest in highly liquid near-term instruments such as cash and short term debt securities. So far this year, investors have put $192 billion into cash, adding $18.1 billion in the week to Wednesday, BofA said. They invested $68.1 billion in cash a week earlier, more than at any time since the depths of the pandemic in 2020. Market expectations for further rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which have sent U.S. yields higher, have also made money market funds more attractive.

[1/2] European Central Bank and SVB (Silicon Valley Bank) logos are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. SVB, which does business as Silicon Valley Bank, was not immediately available for comment. "Silicon Valley Bank is shedding light on vulnerabilities across the US banking sector, primarily in the bond holdings that many large institutions hold," said Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist at Corpay. “The current liquidity run on Silicon Valley Bank is having a knock-on effect on the wider banking system," said Rick Seehra, Prudential Lead at Bovill. But banking experts said SVB's issues were unique and the worries about the broader sector were not warranted.

The S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK) dropped 6.6% on Thursday and was set to open lower again on Friday. The crisis at SVG was feeding growing investor concerns that banks will be vulnerable to the rising cost of money. In an unusual step, Commerzbank, one of Germany's largest banks, issued a statement, playing down any threat from SVB, saying it did not see "a corresponding risk for us". "The market is treating this as a potential contagion risk," said Antoine Bouvet, senior rates strategist at ING in London. A spike in interest rates has led to a sell-off in bonds, leaving banks exposed to potential losses on the securities they hold.

☆ Europe's lenders sucked into global banks rout
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/4] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, March 8, 2023. The episode underscored the vulnerability of banks, many of which were propped up by taxpayers' cash following the global financial crisis more than a decade ago. Investors in SVB's stock had fretted over whether the capital raise would be sufficient given the deteriorating fortunes of many technology startups that the bank serves. But some startups have been advising their founders to pull out their money from SVB as a precautionary measure, the sources added. Writing By John O'Donnell; Additional reporting by Jo Mason; Editing by Elisa Martinuzzi and Toby ChopraOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ European bank shares tumble day after U.S. market turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, March 10 (Reuters) - European banking stocks headed for their largest one-day fall in nine months on Friday, a day after a sharp sell-off in U.S. banks. Europe's STOXX banking index (.SX7P) fell 4.2%, set for its biggest one-day slide since early June, with declines for most major names including HSBC (.HSBA.L) down 4.5% and Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) down 7.9%. S&P 500's bank index (.SPXBK) finished down 6.6% on Thursday after tech-industry lender SVB Financial Group (SIVB.O) launched a share sale to shore up its balance sheet due to declining deposits from startups struggling for funding. Reporting by Alun John; Editing by Amanda CooperOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

SINGAPORE/LONDON, March 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar held steady on Tuesday ahead of testimony before Congress by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while the Aussie slid after the Reserve Bank of Australia hinted it might nearly be done with monetary tightening. Elsewhere, the euro, sterling and yen were all broadly steady with the common currency at $1.0671 , the pound at $1.20245 , and one dollar worth 135.7 yen . That meant U.S. dollar index , which measures the unit against six major rivals, was also flat at 104.3, having slipped 0.26% a day earlier. "If (he) remains cautious ... that could trigger the dollar index to fall further below the 105.00-level ahead of the release of the NFP report on Friday." Investors are also awaiting the final policy meeting for Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday and Friday, when the central bank is set to stick to its ultra-loose monetary path.

☆ Morning Bid: China takes five
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Alun John"Fair enough I suppose" seems to be markets' response to China's comparatively-modest 5% 2023 growth target announced on Sunday. (.MIWD00000PUS)This year's growth target of around 5% was at the low end of expectations, as policy sources had recently told Reuters a range as high as 6% could be set. It is also below last year's target of around 5.5%, though up from last year's actual 3% figure. It focuses more on longer-term growth challenges," said ING's chief economist for Greater China Iris Pang. * U.S. Three month and six month bill auctionsBy Alun John, editing by Ed Osmond <a href="mailto:alun.john@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">alun.john@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

[1/2] A worker shelters from the rain under a Union Flag umbrella as he passes the London Stock Exchange in London, Britain, October 1, 2008. REUTERS/Toby Melville/File PhotoLONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - London risks losing its appeal for stock market listings, some investors and financial executives said, with sluggish trading and low valuations driving more companies to float elsewhere. That dashed government hopes that Arm, seen as a British tech success story, would return to the London market, where it was listed before being taken over in 2016. Arm's announcement came a day after Dublin-based construction materials company CRH recommended moving its primary listing from London to the United States. But British companies that floated in New York have not necessarily had the smooth ride they expected, data compiled by the London Stock Exchange (LSE) (LSEG.L) suggests.

☆ Morgan Stanley, others now forecast 4% peak for key ECB rate
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Sudip Kar-Gupta | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

March 3 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley and two other investment banks have revised their forecasts for the European Central Bank's terminal rate - the level at which its key interest rate will peak - to 4% as inflationary pressures weigh. BNP Paribas and Barclays joined Morgan Stanley in the upward revisions. Morgan Stanley and BNP Paribas had previously seen the terminal rate at 3.25%. Barclays said in a note to clients that it expects 50 basis point rate increases in March and May, and 25 basis point rises in June and July. JP Morgan this week raised its forecast for the terminal rate to 3.75% from 3.50%.

The dollar index , which measures the currency against a basket of peers, was flat at 104.64, but was still set for a February gain of 2.6%, its first monthly increase since September. The next move in the dollar is really a function of how the February data starts to play out in March," Atrill said. U.S. Treasury yields have also moved higher with the inflation sensitive two-year yield back at three-and- a-half-month highs. [US/}The dollar on Tuesday gained particularly against the Japanese yen , climbing 0.44% to 136.84, its highest in over two months. ,Elsewhere, sterling built on its gains from the previous session against the dollar, rising 0.2% to $1.2082.

The dollar index , which tracks the greenback against six major peers was at 104.48, steady on the day. "The easy part of the short USD trade is over," said Galvin Chia, emerging markets strategist at NatWest Markets. "Until major releases can change the view, the market bias looks like good news is bad news - a resilient U.S. economy is risk-negative." Something that is bad news for risk sentiment, in this case, the likelihood of higher interest rates, would typically boost safe-haven curencies like the dollar. Reporting by Rae Wee and Alun John; Editing by Lincoln Feast and Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ British Steel proposes to close coking ovens in move that could cut 260 UK jobs
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Ruxandra Iordache | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON — Chinese-owned British Steel said it may eliminate up to 260 U.K. jobs as a result of the proposed closure of its coking ovens in Scunthorpe, as steelmaking in Britain remains "uncompetitive" despite cost cutting. British Steel employs 4,700 people, of whom 4,300 are based in the UK. The British administration has been in talks to agree a long-term solution with British Steel over recent months. The Unite union called on British Steel must provide further disclosure over Scunthorpe or face potential industrial action. "Unite will pursue every avenue, including industrial action, to defend members' jobs at British Steel."

☆ Investors pull cash from classic risk plays as Fed rate picture shifts
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BofA Global Research's weekly "Flow Show", released on Friday, showed the largest outflows from technology funds since September, the largest outflows from emerging market debt funds in 14 weeks, and the largest outflows from junk debt funds in eight weeks. Emerging market debt funds saw outflows of $700 million, the largest weekly outflow in 14 weeks, according to the report which attributed the decline to debt investors reducing risk. High yield - or junk - debt saw outflows of $2.6 billion, the largest in eight weeks, and tech funds had $1.1 billion of outflows, the most since September. Elsewhere, there were $5.5 billion inflows to bonds, $1 billion inflows to cash, $300 million to equities and $45 million to gold. Reporting by Alun John; editing by Amanda Cooper and Susan FentonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Bitcoin hits six-month high as investors warm to risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Bitcoin touched a six-month high on Thursday, swept higher with equities and other relatively risky assets as investors gained confidence in the economic outlook and dismissed concern about regulatory scrutiny of the sector. The world's largest cryptocurrency reached $24,895 on Thursday, its highest since August 2022, after jumping 9.5% on Wednesday. Global stocks rose on Thursday as economic data from around the world drove hopes the economy might face a softer landing than feared a few months ago, even as interest rates threaten to remain higher for longer than expected. "Bitcoin bolted past $24,000 for the first time in two weeks after surging more than 8% over the past 24 hours. Reporting by Alun John; editing by Barbara LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fund managers rush into emerging stocks and cut cash - BofA survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The survey of 299 fund managers, with a combined $847 billion in assets under management, found investors were still broadly cautious, but less so than been in recent months. Just 24% predict a recession compared to 77% who did in November, according to the survey conducted in the week to Feb. 9. Investors remain net overweight cash and underweight equities, but a combined index that measures growth expectations, cash allocations and equity allocations improved to its highest level in a year. "(Fund manager survey) investors remain pessimistic in February but to a lesser degree, with all key measures of sentiment improving (month on month) and shift in positioning highlighting stronger risk appetite," BofA analysts said in a note. It also found that "long China stocks" was now the most crowded trade along with long investment grade bonds, replacing long US dollar cash.

The BOJ’s YCC faces a reckoningThe surprise news left investors and analysts trying to parse Ueda's recent commentary. "There is probably a lack of clarity on Ueda's policy leanings at the moment, but at least it is clear that Amamiya (who is seen as a dove) is out. That removes one of the headwinds for the yen," said Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC in Singapore. "The knee-jerk reaction in yen appreciation is more of a reaction to Amamiya being out of the race." I think the new team means that they will redesign the BOJ's monetary policy, not maintain the current policy," said Takayuki Miyajima, a senior economist at Sony Financial Group in Tokyo.

[1/2] U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 196,000 for the week ended Feb. 4, data showed. In late morning trading, the dollar index fell 0.7% to 102.74 . The euro , the biggest component in the dollar index, climbed 0.6% to $1.078, while sterling rose 0.9% to $1.2179 , with both boosted by improving risk sentiment across markets. The dollar fell 0.4% against the Japanese yen to 130.92 .

☆ Swedish crown gains on c.bank forecast for more hikes, softer dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Feb 9 (Reuters) - The Swedish crown rallied on Thursday after the country's central bank raised interest rates and forecast further tightening, while the dollar weakened against most other currencies alongside positive sentiment across markets. The dollar was last down 1.4% against the crown at 10.45 crowns and the euro was down 1.16% at 11.21, after the Riksbank raised its interest rate by 50 basis points to 3%, and forecast more increases in the spring. The Swedish currency has been under pressure, having hit its weakest since 2009 against the euro earlier this week as markets bet the central bank will raise rates less aggressively than the European Central Bank due to domestic economic conditions. Markets are also digesting a series of remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers about the U.S. interest rate plans after Friday's stronger-than-expected jobs data and ahead of next week's closely watched inflation numbers. Williams's comments followed Chair Jerome Powell's sticking by his interest rate outlook on Tuesday, when he reiterated that a process of "disinflation" was under way.

☆ Morning Bid: Bursting bubbles
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Alun John. China's yuan hit a four-week low in both on and offshore markets Monday , and Chinese stocks sold off. The offshore yuan was last at 6.784 per dollar, having firmed from the 6.832 per dollar it hit in early trade. ING say a move into the 6.85-6.9 range would show investors are including more negative trade implications in their thinking. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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